RPI Currently Is 102
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Getting to 11-7 in conference, which will mean closing on an 8-2 run in conference play would definitely get them in discussion, especially since we'd pick up at least one road win over Maryland, Wisconsin or MSU to get there. Probably still need to win a game or two in the BTT in that scenario though.
Yep. That'd put Iowa at 11-7, with MSU, IU, MN and MI all at 10-8 to 8-10, with most of them likely at 9-9 or worse. To do this, we have to win those games; it's a moot point if we cannot finish 5-2, because any of those teams tied with us at 10-8 or 9-9 would take an NCAA or NIT bid ahead of us.
There is simply no way an 11-7 BT team stays at home and an 8-10 team goes if we beat them head-head (e.g. MN). But it's all chatter until we beat MN, because they know they are also on the bubble and losing to Iowa means they are pretty much out of NCAA contention, too.
Losing to Iowa would give them 7 losses in BT play (4-7), and 1-6 in their last 7 games. Not a formula the NCAA committees like when reviewing your resume down the stretch.
With games left @WI and @MD, it's fairly likely they'd then finish 9-9 and that assumes they'd win everything else. With games against two other 'bubble' teams in IU and MI, who also need to wins for consideration, they'd be in big trouble. Of the 'critical' games left on their schedule, Iowa would seem to be the 'most winnable' for them.
A 9-9 BT team will not make the NCAA tournament unless there are several teams 'tied for 5th or 6th' at 9-9. Or, they compete into the finals of the BTT and upset expected tourney picks.
RPI counts for very little when you cannot compete in your own conference, which is why RPI is being downplayed as a metric - it ends up with too much 'early season' influence, and not later-season performance.
I agree with you but at 8-10 with a win in BTT they are a lock IMO. This game on Wed is def a must win for both teams and would greatly enhance our metrics which we need drastically.
...and that's the challenge for Iowa: every one of those teams - MN, MSU, IU - is in the same boat. A loss to anyone other than PU, NU, MD or WI will drop them to 9-9 and to very bad 'bubble' status. They all view Iowa as both a 'winnable' game and a 'must win' game.
Yep, wish we could get the Nebby game in Lincoln and Omaha back, brutal.
Even with a W at Nebraska, we'd be 7-4 now. If you don't beat @MN, @MSU and IU, you still finish behind them in the standings with virtually no chance at a postseason bid. If you wanna play in the NCAA tournament, you have to beat NCAA-tournament caliber teams.
We hammered OSU, which is no pushover after seeing them beat MI on the road. Our play is definitely improving, and if we play like we did vs. OSU, PU, NE we can beat the MNs, MSUs and IUs.
If we play like we did against NU and IL, we'll get run out of the building. Which Iowa team will show up?
Hopefully Fran goes with the hot hands/best lineups early and doesn't stick with an ailing Jok or something for example.
ESPN BPI has Iowa projected as 2-5 finish so Iowa definitely has to outplay the statistics. Granted, our play the last three games doesn't have much impact on these projections compared to the first 20 games, but this team still has stretches where the defense is lacking. If those tendencies continue and we don't shoot the ball as well as we have the last three games, games like IL will show up in the last stretch. I like where we are going, but with a young team not everything is corrected all at once and never comes back. And we need Jok to play and be a contributor like he was yesterday even though he is not 100%. You could see he was very hesitant to shoot the long range jumper so something is still not quite right. Brady and JoBo have picked up the slack from outside, but would like to see Moss get in rythum for the last stretch too.
Yes - in the games we got throttled, our 3-pt defense was abysmal. If any of those teams: MN, MSU, IU - have open jumpers, we are in for a long day.
We did well defending recently, and the strategy of getting the ball inside and dishing out, or interior passing has changed our offensive performance dramatically. We have enough 'bigs' to get people into foul trouble (like Nebraska).
I think losing Jok for a couple games forced the team into realizing they need to move the ball more, and drive-pass off to get people open. And they also did a better job of moving w/o the ball. Those are easier sounding things to learn than in reality, because how you move and where you need to move and the timing all changes depending on how the defense is set up: man, 2-3 zone, box-and-one....you need to learn the different strategies against all of those.
With a young team, that is very challenging, because in practice they don't even know how to implement those defenses well, which means you're practicing against 'bad/weak' defense. And that just begets bad offense as well. As the guys learn, both start to improve, and when the light-bulb turns on, they figure it out quickly.
This is one of the reasons I'm not a fan of the summer Prime Time League (or whatever) because guys learn to fall back into bad habits to put up big stats vs. inferior competition. And then when they get back to the regular season, they have to work to un-learn those same bad habits. Instead, they need to identify the weak elements of their game, and limit their play to honing those skills and ignore the 'stats'. If you want to develop a hook shot....invest the summer working on mostly your hook shot. Don't keep repeating the things you already do well...focus on the things you need to improve on.
I think it's better than what you think. It's actually pretty deep, it just doesn't have 'elite' teams. Currently, only one team in the conference has a losing record. There aren't any give me games in this conference like some past seasons.
The Big 10 for example has more top 25 RPI teams (4) than the Big 12 (2). They just don't have a Kansas or Baylor. The Pac 12 only has 3 top 25 RPI teams, as does the SEC. The Big East has 4 top 25 RPI and 5 top 50.
6 Big 10 teams in the top 50 RPI:
Wisconsin (17), Maryland (21), Purdue (22), Minnesota (24), Northwestern (33), Michigan St. (48)
The Big 10 compares favorably with depth with all the major conferences except the ACC.
Do you even follow how the NCAA committee picks teams for at-large spots? Conference finish means almost zero. RPI means everything. The committee has said multiple times that conference finish doesn't matter, overall resume does. There is a good/decent chance the RPI gets de-emphasized in future years, but for this year it is the most important metric. Minnesota is getting in the tournament barring an utter collapse. They have 8 Top 100 RPI wins, they are 3-4 on the road and 1-0 in neutral court games. Only 4 of their wins are over teams 150+ in the RPI. Gophers have 5 home games left, 3 road games. They will be favored in all 5 home games and in 1 of the road games (Rutgers). Gophers are not great, but they played the RPI game well, and got wins at Florida State (RPI #6) and 4 other Top 100 RPI wins in the non-conference. That is how you build your resume for the tournament.
Not anymore. They've figured out that RPI weights early season performance far too much.
It's one of many metrics, and definitely not the biggest factor anymore. Kenpom and other ratings will have a greater impact, because they take into account more recent performance than RPI.
FYI....MN has already lost 5 of their last 6 games. They cannot continue at 0.500 and expect an NCAA bid. Losing to Iowa would mean 6 losses in 7 games. That's definitely going to catch the attention of the selection committee, and not in a good way. Of course, they could turn it around and win most of the rest of their games, but they are close to finishing 9-9, which would squarely put them in bubble status.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/by-conference/?anchor=big-ten
This has 6 Big 10 Teams in the tournament and gives Iowa a 4% chance of making it.
This has 6 Big 10 Teams in the tournament and gives Iowa a 4% chance of making it.
That's because they expect us to lose to MN, MSU and IU. Which will be accurate if we don't win those games.
None of those teams look invincible in conference play to this point. MN has played and lost some close games, so they actually may be the toughest of the bunch.
Those odds also do not include the reality that some of the teams "in" still must play each other; very likely one of MN, MSU or IU is going to end up below .500 in conference play, and maybe 2 of them. I simply do not see an 8-10 BT team in the tournament, unless they were to reach the finals of the BTT.
Win the Big Ten Tournament and we are in........
Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
Hell no!
Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
Hell no!
It weighs your first 5 games the same as your last 5.
That takes nothing into account as to how your team has improved during the year, injuries, etc.
It also 'locks in' team weighting once they start conference play, and most teams no longer play any OOC games after conference play starts. Thus, just having a 'hot start' or a couple lucky games against good teams will keep tracking all the way through.
If you want the best 68 teams in the tourney, you don't want ones that were 'hot' in the first 10 games, then played .500 ball the rest of the way (this is what MN and IU currently look like - they can change that, but they need to play .700 ball from here on out just to be .500 in conference play).
You want teams that either played consistently the whole season, or that are playing >.500 ball toward tourney time. Going 'undefeated' in your pre-conference schedule, then playing .400 or .450 ball once you play in your conference is no longer impressing the committees.
If Iowa ends up tied with MN or MSU or IU at 11-7 or 10-8 in the standings, then sure, RPI and overall record would tip an NCAA bid to any of those 3 over us. But I'm seeing remaining schedules and that those 3 teams may struggle to finish 9-9.
Iowa would have to be in the "bubble team" mix for anything above 4%.
Winning at Minnesota and MSU, then holding serve at home, and they start showing up in the "last 4 out", I think.
Their SOS would improve from a respectable 50-ish now.
RPI will take care of itself. The committee makes note of those wins against the top 100 / top 50 as carrying more weight than the static RPI driven number(s) anyway. This is what Iowa desperately needs now. Those type of wins on the road. To balance out the bad non conference stats (ISU won't be enough to carry that).
If UNI can go on a streak, they could get their RPI #'s back around 100. That would help to get another top 100 win in there. It would also help Iowa's RPI number slightly. Iowa has to get some of the road games, but with our youth I just don't see it.
I think if this team finishes 5-2 or 4-3 and wins 1 in the BTT, they will be on the bubble (outside looking in). IF they were able to win 2-3 in the BTT, then they would move off the bubble and into the 12-11 seed (possible first four game).
Its a longshot, but hey it beats the March situations we were thinking about when LICK was the coach. This team has improved and I hope they can keep it going. I am especially hoping Peter Jok can get it going again and plays within himself. This team is pretty damn good.
If they can go 4-3 or 3-4 and win 2 games in the BTT, I think they get serious consideration. I suspect there are a number of teams in the same place as Iowa right now, so the tourney is going to have stretch for 68 teams. Fran's teams have never fared well in the BTT, but could get to semis if they catch some teams with tired legs. Love to have another shot at NW.
The BTT is setting up to be a fun one. Outside of Purdue/Wisky anyone can beat or play with anyone. Going to be a lot of close games, bummer its out in Washington DC and its going to be difficult for majority of the teams fans to make it.
This is basically every metric. All of these statements could be said about any metric used.
That's only 6 of 14 teams. There are 7 of 10 Big 12 teams in the top 50. ACC has 9 of 15.
Nope. Other metrics weigh more recent games more than early games. Otherwise, they'd all have the same ratings for everyone.
An RPI system which weighs your season proportionally, say 50% on your last 1/3, 30% on the middle and 20% on your first 1/3 will look vastly different than the traditional RPI, which weighs every game equally. And that will reflect player development as well as player injuries. It's why there are 20 or more 'ratings' systems. They all treat things differently.
Joe, no one is disagreeing that different systems rate things differently, or that the RPI would be different if it weighed different portions of the schedule differently. It doesn't change the way the teams will be selected THIS year. The RPI is the metric of most importance this year to the selection committee. This is the reason why Minnesota is a viable team for an at-large bid this year (at this moment in time) and Iowa is not, despite Iowa being 2 games better in conference.
Huh? They've indicated RPI is falling off the bus as a metric, and others (like KenPom, Sagarin) will carry more weight.
....and most of this is projection that presume MN is going to win the games against the Iowas and other lower teams on their schedule. They very well may, but if MN cannot beat the teams they are tied with in the BT standings they will not get bids over those teams, regardless of how many teams they beat early in the season. If IA, MSU, IU and MN are all tied in the standings, but Iowa were to beat every one of them, then it's a much better bet all of the RPIs will be similar, and the committees will look to who played better down the stretch and who beat whom.
IA cannot get a bid UNLESS we beat all of those teams OR go 2-1 with another big upset of WI or MD.
MN cannot get a bid if they lose to IA and end up 9-9 and behind MSU and/or IA and/or IU. All the bracketology projections at this point are just projections, with the assumptions that those teams are going to win their winnable games and not self destruct.
Which ones weight games based on recency? Kenpom doesn't. BPI doesn't. Sagarin doesn't. Please list the ones that do.
Looks like there might actually be 2 - a predictive (Sagarin/Kenpom style) and results based (RPI/KPI) style.
http://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...y-about-changes-to-tourney-selection-process/
Too bad it's out there. Chicago or Indy, I'll always go. Not going to the east coast this or next year.
I don't mean to quibble about this, but what you're saying just isn't the case. All of the Bracketology stuff out there does not use projections at all. They are making point in time selections based on the results as of right now, today. Minnesota would be in RIGHT NOW, even though they are behind Iowa and other teams in the conference standings right now. And even if you want to project it out, if Iowa finished 9-9 or 10-8 and Minnesota finished 8-10 in conference, the Gophers would get in and Iowa would not, for all of the reasons that have already been explained. Your statement that if Iowa, MSU, IU and MN were all tied at the end of the season that Iowa's RPI would be similar is just not true. That is why Gophers are in the field RIGHT NOW and Iowa is not. Minnesota has wins over Florida State, Arkansas, Arkansas State, etc., all of which Iowa does not have and will not have at the end of the season. It makes Minnesota's resume better. Iowa beating Minnesota would improve Iowa's resume, but wouldn't negatively impact the Gophers' resume all that much.
The only time conference finish matters is in the conference tournament, where the champion gets the auto-bid. It just does not matter that one team finished above another in conference standings, especially in a conference like the B1G with unbalanced schedules.
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