RPI Watch

[whatsup13579er]

Today Rutger will lose another 31 points with a win and drop to 42 in the RPI. A loss would cost them 82 points and would drop them to 49.

TT has dropped from 24 when they split with the Hawks in IC to 48. They are losers of 5 straight and 8 of their last 11. Iowa's signature win doesn't look so good anymore.

 

[KyleHuesmann]

Is that too much to ask of this team with the bullpen woes?

I mean I feel pretty comfortable with…
Nedved
Henderson
Brecht
Beutel
Davitt
Christophersen
DeTaeye has come on as of late

That’s enough to get through a weekend with the starting rotation we have.

 

[whatsup13579er]

2/3 at Rutgers
2/3 at Nebraska
2/3 vs Purdue
3/3 at Michigan State
2/3 vs Indiana
3/3 vs WIU, Illinois St, UIC
= 35-17 + 2-2 at BTT = 37-19

37-19 and 17-7 in Big Ten play has to be good enough right? 21-7 to end the year.

I think 1/3 at Rutger and swap 3/3 at MSU with one of the home series gets the RPI close to where it needs to be. 16-8 in conference (.667) is good. I think it will be important for Iowa to finish 3rd in the B1G and at least 50ish in the RPI.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Is that too much to ask of this team with the bullpen woes?

It's a tall order. Doable? Yes.

 

[AuroraHawk]

I mean I feel pretty comfortable with…
Nedved
Henderson
Brecht
Beutel
Davitt
Christophersen
DeTaeye has come on as of late

That’s enough to get through a weekend with the starting rotation we have.

You have far more confidence in Henderson and Christophersen than I do.
As for Davitt and Brecht . . . they are like a box of chocolates.

 

[KyleHuesmann]

Rutgers just lost to 4-24 Princeton 9-7. The Scarlet Knights drop to #52 in the RPI.

 

[whatsup13579er]

Rutgers just lost to 4-24 Princeton 9-7. The Scarlet Knights drop to #52 in the RPI.

Of course they did. Ugh.

 

[HawkeyeGenius]

Rutgers just lost to 4-24 Princeton 9-7. The Scarlet Knights drop to #52 in the RPI.

For 31-7, their RPI actually isn't good. Still plenty for Iowa to gain with wins this weekend.

 

[KyleHuesmann]

Honestly the goal may just be to gun for the top 3 in the Big Ten. The conference has gotten 3+ teams in the tournament every year since 2014, which was the last year only 2 teams got in. That year Illinois was 17-7 in conference play, but 32-22 overall.

If Iowa gets to 17-7 and 36-16 overall, they would likely be right there for the top 3 and would have to be in right? Big Ten is far better talent wise than they were back in 2014 when they only got 2 teams in.

 

[whatsup13579er]

Rutger weekend is finally here and the RPI implications for Iowa is potentially HUGE. Iowa is currently 75 in the RPI. Iowa gains 84 points with a win and 12 points with a loss. Here is how the numbers stand as of Friday morning and the possible results this weekend for Iowa:

Rutger sweep, +36 points, 70 RPI
Rutger win 2-1, +110 points, 63 RPI
Iowa win 2-1, +184 points, 56 RPI
Iowa sweep, +252 points, 49 RPI

An Iowa win, or sweep, this weekend gets Iowa right back in the bubble discussion. I'd even consider Iowa winning 1 game in Piscataway a good weekend RPI wise but it leaves less margin for error down the stretch.

 

[ssckelley]

Yeah, even 1 win against Rutgers would be helpful. Rutgers still has to play Maryland and @ Michigan yet so if Iowa can squeeze out a couple of wins they could get back into the Big Ten picture.

 

[whatsup13579er]

Rutger weekend is finally here and the RPI implications for Iowa is potentially HUGE. Iowa is currently 75 in the RPI. Iowa gains 84 points with a win and 12 points with a loss. Here is how the numbers stand as of Friday morning and the possible results this weekend for Iowa:

Rutger sweep, +36 points, 70 RPI
Rutger win 2-1, +110 points, 63 RPI
Iowa win 2-1, +184 points, 56 RPI
Iowa sweep, +252 points, 49 RPI

An Iowa win, or sweep, this weekend gets Iowa right back in the bubble discussion. I'd even consider Iowa winning 1 game in Piscataway a good weekend RPI wise but it leaves less margin for error down the stretch.

Another huge series this weekend in Champaign as Illinois hosts Maryland. Root for Illinois to win and help bring Maryland back to the pack since Iowa doesn't play them in conference play. Minnesota can help Iowa gain 10 points per win this weekend against PSU. Iowa needs to continue to have UC Irvine, CMU, and Michigan to keep playing well. Best case scenario for Iowa is to finish in the top 3 in the conference along with Illinois and Michigan.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Rutger weekend is finally here and the RPI implications for Iowa is potentially HUGE. Iowa is currently 75 in the RPI. Iowa gains 84 points with a win and 12 points with a loss. Here is how the numbers stand as of Friday morning and the possible results this weekend for Iowa:

Rutger sweep, +36 points, 70 RPI
Rutger win 2-1, +110 points, 63 RPI
Iowa win 2-1, +184 points, 56 RPI
Iowa sweep, +252 points, 49 RPI

An Iowa win, or sweep, this weekend gets Iowa right back in the bubble discussion. I'd even consider Iowa winning 1 game in Piscataway a good weekend RPI wise but it leaves less margin for error down the stretch.

Last paragraph is spot on - with one minor "nit pick." If Iowa sweeps Rutgers - a road sweep - I think Iowa would be considered - at that time - not a bubble team but as a Regional team. How Iowa performed for balance of season will certainly cause that analysis to fluctuate but a series road sweep against a team that was - at the time - a Top 50 RPI team vaults them back into BA and d1 Baseball's tournament projections.

The only other thing that I'd point out is that there are a bunch of other games that could mess with Iowa's RPI gains. Poor weekends by Iowa's prior opponents could undo some of the gains. For example, if Illinois, CMU and UC Irvine all lose today, Iowa loses 26 RPI points. A Michigan loss to OSU would cause Iowa to lose nearly 8 RPI points.

What do I want? I guess I'm hoping that OSU tops Michigan and Maryland tops Illinois so that Iowa has an opportunity to jump up the B1G standings but that the other games "offset" the RPI points that Iowa loses if Michigan and Illinois lose. That's a close to a "win/win" that I see.

Of course, it is relatively all for naught if Iowa doesn't grab this series.

 

[HawkeyeGenius]

Last paragraph is spot on - with one minor "nit pick." If Iowa sweeps Rutgers - a road sweep - I think Iowa would be considered - at that time - not a bubble team but as a Regional team. How Iowa performed for balance of season will certainly cause that analysis to fluctuate but a series road sweep against a team that was - at the time - a Top 50 RPI team vaults them back into BA and d1 Baseball's tournament projections.

The only other thing that I'd point out is that there are a bunch of other games that could mess with Iowa's RPI gains. Poor weekends by Iowa's prior opponents could undo some of the gains. For example, if Illinois, CMU and UC Irvine all lose today, Iowa loses 26 RPI points. A Michigan loss to OSU would cause Iowa to lose nearly 8 RPI points.

What do I want? I guess I'm hoping that OSU tops Michigan and Maryland tops Illinois so that Iowa has an opportunity to jump up the B1G standings but that the other games "offset" the RPI points that Iowa loses if Michigan and Illinois lose. That's a close to a "win/win" that I see.

Of course, it is relatively all for naught if Iowa doesn't grab this series.

CMU isn't losing many, if anymore games. Now that I say that, they'll lose today.

 

[AuroraHawk]

CMU isn't losing many, if anymore games. Now that I say that, they'll lose today.

I consider CMU to be one of Iowa's best friends right now.

As far as I'm concerned, CMU, UC-Irvine and Texas Tech can go on a season finishing rampage of their remaining opponents and win their respective conference tournaments. And if Minnesota can start winning some games, I'm all for that as well. Certainly would welcome the 10 RPI points if they can knock off PSU today.

 

[ssckelley]

CMU hangs on to beat Akron 11-10.

 

[Franisdaman]

its amazing how you guys follow all these other teams that Iowa has played

the way I look at it? Just win series. And sweep the series against the Minnesotas of the world.

The RPI will then be what it is.

@KyleHuesmann has made this even simpler. To make the NCAA tournament, you not only need to win series, you need to finish in the top 3 of the B1G. If we finish 4th? Don't hold your breath, but hope for the best.

 

[whatsup13579er]

Iowa jumps up to 63 in the RPI with the win. Looks like a 6 point swing in the RPI points. Iowa will get 76 with a win tomorrow and 6 with a loss.

 

[whatsup13579er]

its amazing how you guys follow all these other teams that Iowa has played

the way I look at it? Just win series. And sweep the series against the Minnesotas of the world.

The RPI will then be what it is.

@KyleHuesmann has made this even simpler. To make the NCAA tournament, you not only need to win series, you need to finish in the top 3 of the B1G. If we finish 4th? Don't hold your breath, but hope for the best.

Opponent win % is literally 50% of the RPI calculation so it makes sense to follow how other teams are doing, especially teams that Iowa has played multiple games against.

If Iowa finishes top 3, along with Illinois and Michigan, would be Iowa's best bet to being in a great spot for an at large bid.

 

[Franisdaman]

Opponent win % is literally 50% of the RPI calculation so it makes sense to follow how other teams are doing, especially teams that Iowa has played multiple games against.

If Iowa finishes top 3, along with Illinois and Michigan, would be Iowa's best bet to being in a great spot for an at large bid.

you do you.

I will just focus on 2 things: (1) Iowa winning as many of these 3 game series as possible; and (2) staying in the Top 3 of the B1G. Do that? And you are in the NCAA Tournament.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Opponent win % is literally 50% of the RPI calculation so it makes sense to follow how other teams are doing, especially teams that Iowa has played multiple games against.

If Iowa finishes top 3, along with Illinois and Michigan, would be Iowa's best bet to being in a great spot for an at large bid.

Maryland is the cream of the crop in the B1G. I'd bet a crap ton of money that they are getting a bid.
Rutgers has done exactly what it needed to do against the lower teams in the B1G. Entering today, Rutgers was 11-1 in B1G play. That's a substantial head start. They face a lousy . . . absolutely lousy . . . OSU team next weekend. Even if they go 1-2 against Iowa, Rutgers has positioned itself nicely.
Illinois is sitting nicely at 10-2 in the B1G.

It is going to be a dog fight to get into the top 3. And, let's face it, outside of Maryland, there may not be another B1G team that finishes in the top 40 of RPI.

 

[HawkeyeGenius]

Maryland is the cream of the crop in the B1G. I'd bet a crap ton of money that they are getting a bid.
Rutgers has done exactly what it needed to do against the lower teams in the B1G. Entering today, Rutgers was 11-1 in B1G play. That's a substantial head start. They face a lousy . . . absolutely lousy . . . OSU team next weekend. Even if they go 1-2 against Iowa, Rutgers has positioned itself nicely.
Illinois is sitting nicely at 10-2 in the B1G.

It is going to be a dog fight to get into the top 3. And, let's face it, outside of Maryland, there may not be another B1G team that finishes in the top 40 of RPI.

The game two loss to Illinois is looming large, Iowa could really separate themselves.

 

[Franisdaman]

The game two loss to Illinois is looming large, Iowa could really separate themselves.

this is what I mean. once you hit B1G play, it's all about winning series and finishing in the top 3 in the standings.

Everything else will take care of itself.

I guarantee Heller is focused on Iowa and is not scoreboard watching. Those results are completely out of his control. What's in his control is winning game 1 today and hopefully winning this series.

 

[HawkeyeGenius]

this is what I mean. once you hit B1G play, it's all about winning series and finishing in the top 3 in the standings.

Everything else will take care of itself.

I guarantee Heller is focused on Iowa and is not scoreboard watching. Those results are completely out of his control. What's in his control is winning game 1 today and hopefully winning this series.

You are correct. If you win then things have a way of taking care of themselves.

 

[ozziesimmons22]

A question for the RPI guys. Let’s say, hypothetically, it was the last day of conference play. Iowa goes into Sunday down one game to Team X for first place in the Big Ten and squarely on the bubble for postseason play. Iowa lost their series against Team X earlier in the season. Team X is playing the last place team in the Big Ten. Iowa wins Sunday. If Team X loses to said last place team, Iowa gets a share of the Big Ten title, but their RPI takes a big hit. If Team X wins, Iowa’s RPI isn’t affected like above, but they lose out on the title. I know there is still the Big Ten tournament, but just for the sake of argument in terms of postseason (you could draw up a similar scenario in the conference tournament I guess) is Iowa really hoping to not win the title?

Maybe I’m way off with what you guys have been saying, and I obviously used a very unique example, but wanted to ask.

The other thing that seems so strange, regardless of the math, is winning a game and still being able to drop in RPI.

For me the number one goal for any sport has always been a Big Ten championship. Maybe I’m getting old.

Well, I am getting old, but thanks to everyone on this board.

 

[ozziesimmons22]

And now that I look at the couple posts above maybe that was a dumb question.
Like they said, win and things generally take care of themselves.

 

[whatsup13579er]

You are correct. If you win then things have a way of taking care of themselves.

Groundbreaking analysis, isn’t it?

 

[AuroraHawk]

this is what I mean. once you hit B1G play, it's all about winning series and finishing in the top 3 in the standings.

Everything else will take care of itself.

I guarantee Heller is focused on Iowa and is not scoreboard watching. Those results are completely out of his control. What's in his control is winning game 1 today and hopefully winning this series.

I missed the posts where anyone is claiming that Heller is or should be scoreboard watching.

if you don’t want to follow what is going on in other games, then don’t follow the other games.

You don’t need to become Mr. Pissy Poster if there are others who choose to follow other games, monitor the system that is influential to the NCAA Selection Committee and analyze how the other games may influence that system.

 

[Hawkeyes4Life32]

Illinois is wrecking Maryland right now. They are a good team but man it would’ve been nice to win that series

 

[Franisdaman]

You are correct. If you win then things have a way of taking care of themselves.

I have just seen too many times where we as fans scoreboard watch, do all these calculations in our heads, look behind (what could have been vs Illinois) and look ahead, and then we lose the series that is right in front of us (or worse, get swept). And when we lose that series that is right in front of us, then all that time was wasted.

So, lets not lose this series that's right in front of us.

 

[Franisdaman]

Like they said, win and things generally take care of themselves.

exactly.

 

[Franisdaman]

I missed the posts where anyone is claiming that Heller is or should be scoreboard watching.

if you don’t want to follow what is going on in other games, then don’t follow the other games.

You don’t need to become Mr. Pissy Poster if there are others who choose to follow other games, monitor the system that is influential to the NCAA Selection Committee and analyze how the other games may influence that system.

Speaking of becoming Mr Pissy Poster; good grief.

First off, get your facts straight. I didn't claim anyone was stating Heller was scoreboard watching; I just said he isn't wasting his time scoreboard watching, unlike fans like you.

In addition, I am simply pointing out that our beat writer, @KyleHuesmann , has simplified all of this for us.

* If Iowa finishes in the top 3 in the B1G, they are in the NCAA Tournament.

* If Iowa finishes 4th (or worse, 5th)? Then hold your breath on Selection Day.


The KISS principle applies to so many things. Keep it simple, Aurora.

 

[KyleHuesmann]

With a win tomorrow Iowa could potentially jump Illinois and Rutgers and become the Big Ten #2 in the RPI.

 

[AuroraHawk]

With a win tomorrow Iowa could potentially jump Illinois and Rutgers and become the Big Ten #2 in the RPI.

Absolutely. Worst case with an Iowa win is that Iowa, Rutgers and Illinois will be tightly bunched on the ladder.

First pitch can’t come soon enough.

 

[DodgerHawki]

I have just seen too many times where we as fans scoreboard watch, do all these calculations in our heads, look behind (what could have been vs Illinois) and look ahead, and then we lose the series that is right in front of us (or worse, get swept). And when we lose that series that is right in front of us, then all that time was wasted.

So, lets not lose this series that's right in front of us.

Good grief man now you are the police for how we are to think as fans? Personally I love that Aurora and others keep me up to date on how other teams are doing. Why not just not respond to the thread or mute it if you're not interested? It's the internet, people are free to have alternate opinions. Yes, if Iowa wins all the rest of their games this season they will be in the NCAA tournament. And whether Texas Tech or Wichita State or the other non-conference opponents are winning games will not matter. But making the NCAA tournament is a big deal at a place like Iowa. The fact that Heller now has Iowa in a spot where the talent level is good enough year in, year out where we can actually track things like RPI and have Iowa realistically make it into the tournament is wonderful for me as a fan. After the previous 3 decades of Iowa baseball, I wouldn't have thought it possible until Heller took over.

We fans have zero impact on the outcome of the games. Yes, I'm hitting the Warren Nolan baseball site after ever game to see how it impacted Iowa's ranking. I'm not a terrible fan.

 

[Franisdaman]

Good grief man now you are the police for how we are to think as fans? Personally I love that Aurora and others keep me up to date on how other teams are doing. Why not just not respond to the thread or mute it if you're not interested? It's the internet, people are free to have alternate opinions. Yes, if Iowa wins all the rest of their games this season they will be in the NCAA tournament. And whether Texas Tech or Wichita State or the other non-conference opponents are winning games will not matter. But making the NCAA tournament is a big deal at a place like Iowa. The fact that Heller now has Iowa in a spot where the talent level is good enough year in, year out where we can actually track things like RPI and have Iowa realistically make it into the tournament is wonderful for me as a fan. After the previous 3 decades of Iowa baseball, I wouldn't have thought it possible until Heller took over.

We fans have zero impact on the outcome of the games. Yes, I'm hitting the Warren Nolan baseball site after ever game to see how it impacted Iowa's ranking. I'm not a terrible fan.

Good grief, so now you are the police on anyone having a different opinion ?

Keep it simple, Dodger. That's all I am saying.

* If Iowa finishes in the top 3 in the B1G we are in the NCAA Tournament.

* If Iowa finishes 4th or 5th in the B1G? Hold your breath on NCAA Tournament Selection Day.

As Al Davis famously said, just win, baby, and everything will take care of itself.

 

[whatsup13579er]

Speaking of becoming Mr Pissy Poster; good grief.

First off, get your facts straight. I didn't claim anyone was stating Heller was scoreboard watching; I just said he isn't wasting his time scoreboard watching, unlike fans like you.

In addition, I am simply pointing out that our beat writer, @KyleHuesmann , has simplified all of this for us.

* If Iowa finishes in the top 3 in the B1G, they are in the NCAA Tournament.

* If Iowa finishes 4th (or worse, 5th)? Then hold your breath on Selection Day.


The KISS principle applies to so many things. Keep it simple, Aurora.

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Where Iowa finishes in the conference won’t matter a bit if they don’t get their RPI into a reasonable range. Iowa won’t have any top notch wins unless TT runs the table and become one of the elite teams again, then Iowa will have 1. So the resume will count on a bunch of Q2 wins and the RPI. If Iowa’s RPI can finish in the 40s, feel pretty good about an at large bid. If Iowa’s RPI is in the 50s, Iowa will be firmly on the bubble. RPI in the 60s? Little to no chance even if Iowa is 3rd in the conference because the resume isn’t there. In 2014, Illinois finished 3rd in the conference, 56 in the RPI, and was left out.

50% of the RPI calculation is opponent win percentage. It absolutely matters what Iowa’s opponents do down the stretch. As fans, it absolutely makes sense to pay attention to other games. (You’re paying attention to other games too if you’re paying attention to the conference standings!)

The whole ‘we just need to worry about winning’ is the dumbest thing in regards to fans. We’re not playing the games. We can pay attention to all the outside noise because that noise is all part of the picture. We’re expecting our team to win and do their part.

If you don’t want to waste your time scoreboard watching, why are you interested in a thread called RPI Watch when RPI is heavily influenced by opposing teams records?

 

[Franisdaman]

Where Iowa finishes in the conference won’t matter a bit if they don’t get their RPI into a reasonable range. Iowa won’t have any top notch wins unless TT runs the table and become one of the elite teams again, then Iowa will have 1. So the resume will count on a bunch of Q2 wins and the RPI. If Iowa’s RPI can finish in the 40s, feel pretty good about an at large bid. If Iowa’s RPI is in the 50s, Iowa will be firmly on the bubble. RPI in the 60s? Little to no chance even if Iowa is 3rd in the conference because the resume isn’t there. In 2014, Illinois finished 3rd in the conference, 56 in the RPI, and was left out.

50% of the RPI calculation is opponent win percentage. It absolutely matters what Iowa’s opponents do down the stretch. As fans, it absolutely makes sense to pay attention to other games. (You’re paying attention to other games too if you’re paying attention to the conference standings!)

The whole ‘we just need to worry about winning’ is the dumbest thing in regards to fans. We’re not playing the games. We can pay attention to all the outside noise because that noise is all part of the picture. We’re expecting our team to win and do their part.

If you don’t want to waste your time scoreboard watching, why are you interested in a thread called RPI Watch when RPI is heavily influenced by opposing teams records?

Where Iowa finishes in the conference won’t matter a bit? Seriously? Kyle Huesmann showed in his tweet that you are incorrect because winning games and getting into the top 3 or 4 in the B1G will not only get your RPI and your resume to where it needs to be but historically it will have you in the NCAA Tournament (top 3 finish) or knocking on the door to the NCAA Tournament (4th place finish) .

So, please don't tell us where Iowa finishes in the standings won't matter a bit.

Am I interested in Iowa's RPI? Yes.

Am I gonna spend time watching the results of all of Iowa's past and future opponents and try to figure out how that might impact Iowa's RPI? Nope. And you know why? RPI is live on Warren Nolan.com; it is what it is and his calculations are more up to date and accurate than anyone's on here.

Iowa just needs to focus on winning series. They need to ideally finish in the Top 3 in the B1G to make the NCAA Tournament; a top 4 finish might get them in.

Keep it Simple, Whatsup.

 

[AuroraHawk]

It’s pretty simple … if Iowa has a chance to be picked as an at-large team, it will come down to its resume. And Iowa’s resume is dictated, in part, by how its opponents have fared.

Throw on top of that … I enjoy college baseball. Always have. Broke my heart when Duane Banks told me that I wasn’t good enough to make the Iowa roster after being invited to walk on. But that Iowa team was fun to watch (Cal Eldred, Tim Costo, etc). ESPN+ offers a crap ton of games to stream. On top of my obvious interest in Iowa baseball, my good friend’s son plays at Tulane (freshman seeing time at 1B) and I’ve watched a fair amount of Green Wave baseball this year. (They are good).

As an aside, I would have really liked to see my friend’s son at Iowa but Payton Williams effectively blocked him. The kid played on the same travel team with Craig Counsell’s kid (2nd base at Minnesota). Both will get long looks from MLB scouts.

I suffer on a nearly yearly basis because my beloved Pittsburgh Pirates suck eggs. I don’t have the pleasure of closely watching a pennant race in MLB.

Looking at RPI and watching other college games is a phenomenal substitute. I am thankful that Heller has developed a program where RPI/scoreboard watching is meaningful and relevant.

If it isn’t your cup of tea, so be it. I have plenty of people tell me that baseball is boring and they can’t stand watching it. I shrug my shoulders and say “OK. Don’t watch it.” Same advice if you don’t want to watch Illinois/Maryland or Texas Tech/West Virginia.

Cheers and Go Hawks.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Where Iowa finishes in the conference won’t matter a bit? Seriously? Kyle Huesmann showed in his tweet that you are incorrect because winning games and getting into the top 3 or 4 in the B1G will not only get your RPI and your resume to where it needs to be but historically it will have you in the NCAA Tournament (top 3 finish) or knocking on the door to the NCAA Tournament (4th place finish) .

So, please don't tell us where Iowa finishes in the standings won't matter a bit.

Am I interested in Iowa's RPI? Yes.

Am I gonna spend time watching the results of all of Iowa's past and future opponents and try to figure out how that might impact Iowa's RPI? Nope. And you know why? RPI is live on Warren Nolan.com; it is what it is and his calculations are more up to date and accurate than anyone's on here.

Iowa just needs to focus on winning series. They need to ideally finish in the Top 3 in the B1G to make the NCAA Tournament; a top 4 finish might get them in.

Keep it Simple, Whatsup.

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Wasn’t it you that wrote “you do you?” Follow your own advice.