If Iowa is too three with an RPI in the 60's or higher they probably aren't getting an at large UNLESS they win the conference with an RPI of 61 or 62 then they may.
RPI Watch
- Thread starter whatsup13579er
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Michigan was an outlier last year. Likely a deferential pick to the most recent NCAA runner-up, no non-conference games and, of course, it has a prestigious “name.”
I recall a fair number of comments related to whether Michigan deserved a Regional bid.
Put Iowa, Rutgers, Mich State, Minnesota in that position - 3rd place with RPI in 90s and they would not likely have received a bid.
If nothing else RPI impacts the seeding. If following the RPI isn’t for you then this isn’t the thread for you. Nobody has the right to tell someone else how to fan.
Minnesota with a run in the 7th to tie Penn State at 1. Nice little 8.7 point boost if the can win.
CMU tied 0-0 with Akron and Michigan up big in the 9th vs Ohio State. Another 9 points there.
Going to likely lose a few this afternoon, but hopefully some of these teams can help whittle down the gap between Iowa and #49 Texas State (+77) and #48 UCSB (+77)
CMU tied 0-0 with Akron and Michigan up big in the 9th vs Ohio State. Another 9 points there.
Going to likely lose a few this afternoon, but hopefully some of these teams can help whittle down the gap between Iowa and #49 Texas State (+77) and #48 UCSB (+77)
Hey … if Iowa’s past opponents perform in such a way that it helps Iowa’s RPI, that’s great. But if it results in a net “push” (nothing gained, nothing lost), I’m happy with that. Hate the RPI all you want but it’s reality. Michigan just won its series with OSU and is falling on RPI ladder. Iowa faces that very possibility in every single series it has left and it simply can’t falter in any of its mid-week games.
Taking the first 2 from Rutgers has been great but the margin for error remains slim.
One last point. The pressure is now really ratcheted up on the Scarlet Knights. They still have only played one Q1 team and now sit 0-3 against Q2 teams. It’s not a “must win” for them tomorrow - their performance against lower B1G teams provided a nice cushion for a hiccup - but they’ll be feeling pressure to salvage a win to avoid a sweep. Here’s hoping Ty brings his “A” game and plants seeds of doubt right from the start tomorrow.
Let’s try using my full sentence shall we? The second half of the sentence makes a world of difference. Reading is hard.
3rd place in the B1G won’t matter with a 65+ RPI. The B1G a whole isn’t great this season.
Iowa has 1 win against Texas Tech (34).
Michigan has 1 win against Louisville (40).
Rutger has 1 win against Penn (35).
Maryland has 1 win against Dallas Baptist (6).
Illinois has 1 win against West Virginia (39).
That’s it for Q1 wins OOC for the top 5 teams in the B1G. That’s not going to garner a lot of attention from the committee. Either is the B1G’s conference RPI rank of 10.
If the 3rd place team isn’t in at least the 50s of the RPI, no team in the B1G will have the resume to overcome a bad RPI number. Just like Illinois in 2014.
You are insufferable. My goodness. We get it. We aren't supposed to care about anything else but Iowa winning.
LOL. So, now you are only left with "reading is hard" comments. That tells us all we need to know about you.
Analyze all you want, but like I said, winning takes care of everything. It takes care of your finish in the B1G. It takes care of your RPI. And it takes care of your overall resume.
And speaking of how winning takes care of your RPI, just look at this series:
Entering Friday's game: #75 RPI
Entering Saturday's game: #63 RPI
Entering Sunday's game: #55 RPI
This is not the rocket science you make it out to be.
Keep it simple, Whatsup.
100% agree. Our situations are different, but I get more excitement from Iowa making a NCAA baseball regional than when the men's or women's hoops teams get in the tournament or the football team makes it to the Big 10 title game. Those things are all great, but having a baseball team that is even in the discussion for a NCAA tournament is a Christmas present every spring.
Hawks still have a load of work to do. Basically have to win all of the remaining series I would think to be taken seriously as a NCAA team.
I think 17-7 in conference and win the remaining midweek games is what it's going to take to stay in bubble position. Maybe a tough ask.
At the moment the Warren Nolan predictor has Iowa finishing the season 14-1 with a home loss to Purdue. Despite all that winning, it predicts Iowa finishing with an RPI of 60. It predicts 3 Q1, 7 Q2, 8 Q3, and 18 Q4 wins. 36-13 (19-5) is likely good enough for an at-large bid as 19-5 would probably win the B1G. However, the resume isn't great and loaded with bottom tier wins. It also showcases just how much Iowa’s opponents factor into the equation. Iowa really is going to need some help to feel confident in securing an at large bid.
I’d lose my mind if 36-13 and 19-5 didn’t get them in. I still feel confident in 36-15 and 17-7 in Big Ten play. Grab a couple in Omaha and 38-17 should be good enough.
They only way those wouldn’t make it would be if they bucked the 6 year trend of 3+ Big Ten teams getting in, which would be a joke.
Iowa will lose 44 RPI points with a win over W Illinois and lose 123 with a loss. A win would likely keep Iowa in the high 50s of the RPI while a loss would likely drop them to the low 70s.
Someone please tell coach Heller to stop scheduling W Illinois. They are an RPI killer every year.
Someone please tell coach Heller to stop scheduling W Illinois. They are an RPI killer every year.
I wholeheartedly agree. But an RPI in the 60s, a pretty weak resume, and the loss to Loras would give the committee reasons to keep Iowa out. You never know exactly what they are going to emphasize.
The lineup of “impact games” is not favorable for Iowa today. Most likely scenario if Iowa wins will have them in the 62-63 range. A loss to W. Illinois would result in a drop into the 70s and undo most of the gains from the weekend.
Win the conf regular season and/or Big Ten title and remove any doubt! Are we NOT in this precarious type of position almost every year with one or two game where 'if only we got one more out/beat NW/Illinois' etc however I'm sure other teams can say the same.
It doesn't count in the RPI calculations but it counts on Iowa's record, it is listed on the Team Sheet, and it is something that definitely happened. How much weight will it carry with the committee is the question. Hopefully Iowa puts itself in a good enough position that it doesn't matter.
Iowa certainly has more self inflicted wounds than any other perpetual bubble team. That is a fact that can't be disputed. It's maddening.
Ready for some pain?
2021: Finished 26-18 with an all B1G schedule, T4th in the conference. Iowa was considered pretty solidly in the tourney until they lost 2/3 at home to Illinois (22-22) and lost 2/3 at NW (15-21) in the 2nd and 3rd last series of the year.
2020: Finished 10-5 and 38 in the RPI with OOC wins over Arizona, UNC, Duke, and Kansas 2x before COVID shut the season down.
2019: Finished 31-24 (12-12) T6 in the B1G with an RPI of 106. Finshed the last 2 series of the seaon losing 2/3 to MSU (20-34) and getting swept at Maryland (29-29). That squad had a series win at Oklahoma State. Iowa was 3 games out of a 4 way tie for 3rd in the B1G with Minn, Illinois, and Nebby. All they needed to do was win those 2 final series. Both Illinois and Nebby made the tourney. Iowa swept Illinois and won the series against Nebby.
2018: Finished 29-20 (13-9) T6 in the B1G with an RPI of 78. Iowa was 2 games out of 3rd. Had a solid resume going 8-9 in Q1 games, beat #12 Oklahoma State in the 3rd to last series of the year only to follow it up by losing the series at NW (15-32, 232 RPI) the next week and going 0-2 in the B1G tourney.
Hopefully W Illinois' bus breaks down before they reach Iowa City...
About as painful as the BB team losing to Sparty in BTT in 2013 preventing us a bid to the dance, the 2005 Michigan game in football or getting gutted in the 2015 Big Ten football title game. Baseball seems to lure us all in around May 1 and 1 series, game, inning or batter can be the difference between a regional and staying home as we all know too well.
When you lose some of the early season games like Iowa did the they leave themselves no margin of error. Had they beat AMCC, and taken another game or two against Irvine, Wichita, or Texas A&M or one more against Illinois then we'd be having a different conversation. I'd say Iowa is literally two early season wins away from being in the 40's currently.
So, in other words, just win series & the midweek games that you should win and everything takes care of itself?
Our high school team would have played better than WIU last night, at least with pitching and defense. Their pitcher couldn’t even make a lob throw over to 1st base. That was a worthless game to play, all it did was pad stats.
Iowa ended up dropping 4 spots in the RPI after the win last night. Rooting interest for tonight are for Illinois to beat Bradley and Minnesota to beat St Thomas. Anytime Minnesota can get a win is good for Iowa. About as good as it gets gaining Iowa nearly 8 points in the RPI.
Looking ahead to this weekend's series at Nebraska, Iowa should be able to gain 5-10 points in Lincoln with a series win. Maybe 60-70 points with a sweep?
Next week Illinois State should be a 10 point victory. Purdue series could be 5-10 points with a series win. Maybe 65-75 points with a sweep?
The week after at MSU should be very similar to Nebby. 5-10 points with a series win and maybe 60-70 points with a sweep.
The final week at UIC could be a 20 point win and the series finale against Indiana could be -45-55 points with a series win and 10-20 points with a sweep.
Iowa currently sits 103 points out of 50. IMO getting to that 50 line is going to be the benchmark to feel better about an at large bid. If Iowa can finish:
2-1 at Nebby +10
1-0 vs Illinois St +10
2-1 vs Purdue +15
2-1 at MSU +10
1-0 at UIC +20
3-0 vs Indiana +20
Iowa 34-15 (17-7) +85 puts them just under that 50 benchmark. A sweep of Nebby/Purdue/MSU adds another 50ish points and gets them to mid 40s.
As we already know, the margin for error is SLIM.
Today's comps I tried to find matchups with similar records/RPI and adjusted a bit for differences:
Iowa (+25/-45) at Nebby = Illinois (+28/-41) at Bradley
Ill St vs Iowa (+10) = Bradley vs Iowa +10 last week
Purdue vs Iowa (+25/-45) = Liberty vs UNC (+34/-41) Purdue was hard to judge because their RPI 158 and Record 23-13 are out of whack. Hopefully the numbers are better when the time comes.
Iowa (+25/-45) at MSU = Illinois (+28/-41) at Bradley
Iowa (+20) at UIC = Illinois (+28/-41) at Bradley
Indiana vs Iowa (+5/-60) = UNCG at Campbell (0/-65) and PSU at WVU (+2/-73)
Looking ahead to this weekend's series at Nebraska, Iowa should be able to gain 5-10 points in Lincoln with a series win. Maybe 60-70 points with a sweep?
Next week Illinois State should be a 10 point victory. Purdue series could be 5-10 points with a series win. Maybe 65-75 points with a sweep?
The week after at MSU should be very similar to Nebby. 5-10 points with a series win and maybe 60-70 points with a sweep.
The final week at UIC could be a 20 point win and the series finale against Indiana could be -45-55 points with a series win and 10-20 points with a sweep.
Iowa currently sits 103 points out of 50. IMO getting to that 50 line is going to be the benchmark to feel better about an at large bid. If Iowa can finish:
2-1 at Nebby +10
1-0 vs Illinois St +10
2-1 vs Purdue +15
2-1 at MSU +10
1-0 at UIC +20
3-0 vs Indiana +20
Iowa 34-15 (17-7) +85 puts them just under that 50 benchmark. A sweep of Nebby/Purdue/MSU adds another 50ish points and gets them to mid 40s.
As we already know, the margin for error is SLIM.
Today's comps I tried to find matchups with similar records/RPI and adjusted a bit for differences:
Iowa (+25/-45) at Nebby = Illinois (+28/-41) at Bradley
Ill St vs Iowa (+10) = Bradley vs Iowa +10 last week
Purdue vs Iowa (+25/-45) = Liberty vs UNC (+34/-41) Purdue was hard to judge because their RPI 158 and Record 23-13 are out of whack. Hopefully the numbers are better when the time comes.
Iowa (+25/-45) at MSU = Illinois (+28/-41) at Bradley
Iowa (+20) at UIC = Illinois (+28/-41) at Bradley
Indiana vs Iowa (+5/-60) = UNCG at Campbell (0/-65) and PSU at WVU (+2/-73)
FWIW . . . when I looked at Warren Nolan's ever dynamic Predicted Results this morning, it predicted a 60 RPI if Iowa won its remaining mid-week games and won every weekend series remaining the B1G schedule but winning each series 2 games to 1 (16-8; 33-16).
EDIT: "Ever dynamic" is spot on.
I just checked it again. It now has Iowa ending with a #42 RPI as it shows Iowa sweeping Nebraska, Purdue, beating MSU 2 games to 1 and sweeping Indiana. Also winning the mid-week games. (19-5; 36-13)
About the best I can say for "Predicted Results" is that it gives you a decent idea of what RPI possibilities exist under varying scenarios. For my money . . . the top scenario is the worst that Iowa can do and remain on the bubble. The bottom scenario (although not technically the "best") is about as good as we can realistically hope for. Iowa is dancing under the bottom scenario; very likely the B1G regular season champs.
EDIT: "Ever dynamic" is spot on.
I just checked it again. It now has Iowa ending with a #42 RPI as it shows Iowa sweeping Nebraska, Purdue, beating MSU 2 games to 1 and sweeping Indiana. Also winning the mid-week games. (19-5; 36-13)
About the best I can say for "Predicted Results" is that it gives you a decent idea of what RPI possibilities exist under varying scenarios. For my money . . . the top scenario is the worst that Iowa can do and remain on the bubble. The bottom scenario (although not technically the "best") is about as good as we can realistically hope for. Iowa is dancing under the bottom scenario; very likely the B1G regular season champs.
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Now its 34-15 (17-7) RPI 64 losing 1-2 to Nebby, 2-1 Purdue, sweeping MSU and Indiana. Yikes. That scenario assumes Iowa's opponents do not finish well. I think we're on the wrong side of this bubble.
Now its 33-16 (18-6) RPI 48 sweeping Nebby and Indiana, winning series against Purdue and MSU, and losing both midweek games. That's a regional team.
@KyleHuesmann tweeted that BA has Iowa back in the projected field. I was stunned to see that Illinois was left out. Rutgers listed as "last 4 in." Personally, I think Illinois has the inside track to the B1G regular season title.
Illinois overall record (and RPI of 70) is likely what is holding them back in BA's thoughts. I wonder if their fans are feeling confident that a top three B1G finish will guarantee a spot in the NCAA tournament?
Won't matter if Illinois drops a couple of games. They are 19-17 and below Iowa in the RPI (#70). They have to finish stronger than Iowa in my opinion.
at Indiana, vs Miami Oh, vs Nebraska, at Penn St
vs Bradley, at Indiana State
They need to sweep Penn St, Miami Oh and beat Bradley for 30-20 and that might not be enough. They currently are just 10-6 vs Q4 teams.
Now 35-14 (18-6) RPI 56 dropping 1 game each to Nebby and Indiana. That is a very bubbly resume, probably the right side of it.
If Illinois goes 6-3 against IU, UN and PSU, they'll be 17-6 in the conference. That's eminently doable.
Rutgers would have to finish 6-3 to stay ahead of them in the standings.
Maryland would have to finish 9-3 to pass them in the B1G standings.
Iowa and/or Michigan would have to finish 10-2 to pass them in the B1G standings.
If Illinois doesn't win the regular season title, they have a really good chance at finishing in second place.
Illinois' overall record wouldn't be great (29-20) and its RPI would likely be in the 70s - possibly 80s. But . . . if the Illini finish in second place, does the NCAA say "no" and take the 3rd and/or 4th place teams? History suggests that it could happen to a 3rd place team but - at least since 2014 - every 2nd place team in the B1G has received an at large bid (albeit no 2nd place team has had an RPI in the 60s, 70s or 80s)
If Illinois was in in that scenario, then Iowa would have to be in if they had what we have discussed.
IMO it would be hard to justify Iowa over Illinois if Illinois is 17-6 in conference, 1/2 game ahead of Iowa with a H2H series win at Iowa. Iowa's RPI would have to be significantly better. Lets root for Illinois to fall behind Iowa in the conference standings.
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