www.ncaa.com
Lack of marquee OOC victoriesFWIW, d1 Baseball's "view" of the B1G's chances with one month left in the season:
2022 College World Series: Field of 64 predictions, made about three weeks out
These are the latest predictions for the 2022 Men's College World Series field of 64 from the experts at d1baseball.com.
Maryland #2 seed
Iowa #3 seed (#63 - second last team in)
Rutgers #3 seed (#64 - last team in)
Illinois - left out (#68)
Michigan - left out
Margin for error? About nil.
I don't see how Rutgers finishes 21-3. RPI is a pretty flawed tool at predicting outcomes, and baseball is much more susceptible to "upsets" due to the nature of the game. Just don't see Rutgers' pitching allowing them to sweep out. At Ohio State, at Michigan and home vs Maryland. No way they are winning 9 games. Similarly, 18-6 for Iowa is very optimistic. Very winnable series for Iowa coming up, but it's hard to go 10-2 over 4 series.
They absolutely will. That's why I've said if they're going to lose then have it be on the road.
Shoot, worse than I thought and I tried to be conservative in my prediction. Losing -14 to -18 points by winning a series in Lincoln is rough.
I think Purdue will be better against the RPI than your typical 150s RPI team because their record is good. I think that is 50% of the calculation so I am holding out some hope there that a series win may be RPI positive for Iowa.
Warren Nolan still says 17-7 in conference. Win both midweeks. This time losing once to Nebraska and twice to Purdue. RPI is 46 in this case.
It’s ok because they kind of want Indiana, MSU and Purdue to win with them still on the schedule.
Yeah it takes a bit to get used to. Just by playing Northwestern, at home, Maryland has to win to basically stay afloat. They were impacted by teams they have already played losing yesterday. Just like Iowa dropped after winning on the road. Michigan, Illinois and many of Iowa's non-conference foes lost yesterday.
Those are the best. You're so terrible, you get swept, still gain RPI points. Other team that swept you is much better and drops. Makes plenty of sense.
Yeah I’ve been waiting for the site to update too. I figured I’d just look at it in the morning. I’m going to go to bed tonight knowing the Hawks did what they needed to do in Lincoln or at least they didn’t blow it. I think the numbers ended up being better than predicted losing only ~13 points this weekend not ~25.
We may be looking at a case where Iowa hopefully positions themselves where one or two in the conference tournament gets them in. If you start 2-0 though, may as well win it all.
From an RPI perspective, Iowa simply cannot afford to lose at home to Illinois State or on the road to Illinois-Chicago. The margin for error for this team right now is very small.
You would think so, right? The current predictor has Iowa losing 1 to Purdue and at UIC finishing 34-15 (18-6) and 39 in the RPI. To get all the way down to 39, Iowa would need some serious help from its opponents.
This latest one is frighteningly familiar. It has Iowa finishing 33-16 (17-7) with an RPI of 64 losing at UIC and losing 2 of 3 in the season series finale against Indiana.
Not necessarily. Right now the predictor has Iowa losing to UIC and losing 1 against Indiana, finishing 33-16 (18-6) with an RPI of 56. That’s likely good enough for 2nd in the B1G and an at large bid. Iowa’s margins are razor thin now tho…
You go 0-2 in the conference tournament then you're well into the 60's. Iowa can't afford to go 0-2 in Omaha.
