RPI Watch
- Thread starter whatsup13579er
- Start date
It's at 67 which is actually 7 or so spots prior to the weekend. If they won out they'd probably be flirting with 60, which could get them in of they don't go 0-2 in the tournament. Probably need to go 2-2 or better if they win out.
I would have felt really good about Iowa's position if they could have completed the comeback yesterday. I think Iowa almost needs a win against Maryland in Omaha now. First things first, can't piss the bed this week.
Updated 5-16
Iowa took 2 of 3 at MSU this weekend and I think they netted 7 RPI points from the weekend. A win yesterday would have put Iowa at 60 and in much better position than they currently sit at 67.
UIC should be a +20/-30 type game midweek and Indiana is likely a +15/-40 series this weekend.
If Iowa can sweep the week, it would likely be worth 60 points and could get Iowa into the 50s which would be HUGE. A series win against Indiana nets Iowa 10 points and wouldn't move the RPI number much. I think Iowa has reached official must sweep territory. They haven't done enough to play themselves off the bubble in either direction but they are likely on the outside looking in right now. Need to win a couple of games in Omaha, too.
Michigan did Iowa no favors this weekend allowing 43 runs in a sweep by Maryland. Illinois kept pace with Iowa in the conference race by taking 2 of 3 from Nebraska. Iowa is 15 RPI spots ahead of Illinois in the RPI race and 2 games behind Rutger/Maryland for the conference lead.
Iowa took 2 of 3 at MSU this weekend and I think they netted 7 RPI points from the weekend. A win yesterday would have put Iowa at 60 and in much better position than they currently sit at 67.
UIC should be a +20/-30 type game midweek and Indiana is likely a +15/-40 series this weekend.
If Iowa can sweep the week, it would likely be worth 60 points and could get Iowa into the 50s which would be HUGE. A series win against Indiana nets Iowa 10 points and wouldn't move the RPI number much. I think Iowa has reached official must sweep territory. They haven't done enough to play themselves off the bubble in either direction but they are likely on the outside looking in right now. Need to win a couple of games in Omaha, too.
Michigan did Iowa no favors this weekend allowing 43 runs in a sweep by Maryland. Illinois kept pace with Iowa in the conference race by taking 2 of 3 from Nebraska. Iowa is 15 RPI spots ahead of Illinois in the RPI race and 2 games behind Rutger/Maryland for the conference lead.
Rinse and repeat just like the past several years, we will certainly look to the 2-out, 2-strike almost win vs. Illinois, the midweek game vs. Illinois State and yesterday's game giving up 9 runs early in the game as opportunities lost however most bubble teams, etc could probably say this.
The solution? Go 4-0 and play well in Omaha and punch a regional ticket. If Mazur is still throwing lasers I'd give us a great chance in a short series/pod if we can figure out Sat pitching, probably all hands on deck, Go Hawks!
2 losses to Wichita State by 3 runs
5 run 6th by Texas AM, who is in line to host, with 4-5 'errors' in the inning
A couple of 1 run losses at UC Irvine
Getting shut out at Michigan
1 more strike against Illinois in 2nd game. 5 run 9th in game 3.
Scoring 2 runs midweek against Ill St
9! run 2nd inning at MSU
If one or two of these games go the other way, especially in conference, Iowa is likely very comfortable right now.
Well now that you put in that way Iowa certainly will not have things to complain about should they not get in. There are not one, or two games that potentially decided our fate but about 8! Good news is that there is more baseball to play, they will be in the conf. tournament (and most likely with the most fans there) with at least a 50/50 chance at regionals. And..Nebraska won't be there, they need a sweep this weekend vs MSU and some help to get to the 8 seed line.
B1G teams play 8 conference series.
As of right now, Iowa has won 6 series and lost 1 series (in heartbreaking fashion).
Sadly, it’s entirely possible that Iowa can win 7 of the 8 B1G series, finish with a .667 winning percentage in conference and be on the outside looking in when at-large invites are extended.
I'd say most of the time regardless of who that team is on a blind resume from a P5 conf. that type of resume should get you a regional!
This was a dumb game to schedule right before the final series, that starts on Thursday instead of Friday. It isn't worth the bus trip to Chicago to play it.
Warren Nolan hasn’t updated for the cancellation, so we get to see the numbers.
+23/-27 at UIC. A win would have jumped Iowa from 67 to 62. Loss goes from 67 to 70.
+23/-27 at UIC. A win would have jumped Iowa from 67 to 62. Loss goes from 67 to 70.
Hindsight bias says maybe they jumped the gun on canceling, but in Heller’s defense I thought it was going to be closer to +20/-35.
I still think the reward outweighed the risk if you're Iowa but I'm just some schmuck with a keyboard and an internet connection. I think the Thursday start of the Indiana series had to play a part in the decision as well. With Iowa's pitching situation being what it is, you can't afford to burn a lot of guys up midweek before the final conference series.
I’m thinking that the grind of bussing to/from Chicago with little turnaround time before IU series and that Iowa’s pitching is thin played key roles as well.
You simply could not afford to burn key arms in trying to win a mid-week game and not have those arms available on Thursday or Friday if needed.
At this juncture, winning the IU series is paramount. Win the series (hopefully sweep),
root for PSU and take your chances in the B1G tournament.
If Iowa can make semi-final of B1G tournament, there’s a good chance that they will have knocked off a top team. Couple that with winning 7 of 8 B1G series (and a heartbreaker of a series loss), this Iowa team has done what was asked of them. Win series against teams in the schedule. Throw on top taking 2 of 3 from Rutgers and Iowa should be in the discussion. Not saying it will happen but they should be among the last teams considered.
Really need some big crowds (going on Fri and Sat) and the #2:#3 starters need to step up and bring their A efforts.
I was just looking for the possible numbers on a win vs UIC vs not playing, a jump to 62 ahead of Indiana series would've been very nice. That said and as stated, if you burn your pitching or take a loss (or both!) Iowa would be in a very precarious position heading into final series. What's a series win vs. a sweep predicted RPI wise?
Indiana will likely be a +15/-40 type series so a sweep may be +43 and a win is -10 territory.
Can we get the Connor Schultz that shut out Rutger for 8 innings?
That’s the thing. When everyone on the pitching staff is on, it is a very very deep group. Just need it to come together.
Current Big Ten Tournament Seeds
(3 games to play)
1 Maryland
8 Purdue
4 Iowa
5 Penn State
3 Illinois
6 Michigan
2 Rutgers
7 Indiana
That is the frustrating thing. They are a talented group and have flashed several times this season. When they are on, they are on. When they are off, they are way off.
Iowa will likely be in the 4/5 which is a 9pm start on Wednesday or 3/6 which is a 9am start. 2/7 is 1pm and 1/8 is 5pm.
9 p.m. start ugh...although maybe for pitching Mazur gets another 12 hours of rest, then so does the opponent. From a fan and attendance perspective that's tough, game won't be done until midnight!
I think I’ll be at the park from 9am to midnight either way. Might try to go to every game.
“Might?”
If I could, I’d live at the ballpark for the entire tournament. Great fun.
I’d like an Illinois loss, so the #3 or #2 becomes the likely spot. The bottom is easier to navigate.
We might get our wish, Illinois finishes @PSU, who was hot for awhile and recently swept MSU and took 2/3 from Purdue.
Illinois is going to have its hands full with PSU. Especially on the road. PSU is playing its best ball of the season right now.
Mazur the Lazer will take care of any opponent in Game 1...now after Game 1, all bets are off...
I’d really like Penn State to take a couple and let Iowa become the by far and away #3 team in the Big Ten. I would be shocked if the committee took 2 Big Ten teams.
An Iowa sweep coupled with a PSU sweep along with Michigan and Purdue not getting swept is the dream scenario.
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