RPI Watch

whatsup13579er

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Iowa shouldn't get in because they lost to Illinois State.....
Baseball is a weird game. Midweek games get even weirder. Just yesterday #3 Arkansas lost to Missouri State, #8 UCLA lost to Long Beach State, #25 Florida State lost to Stetson, Rutger lost to Seton Hall.

Illinois State has wins against Arkansas, Purdue, Illinois, Dallas Baptist (2x), and Iowa. The MVC is the 6th ranked conference compared the B1G at 8th. Technically, they play in a stronger conference.

The biggest takeaway from last night is that Iowa's offense was only able to muster 2 runs on 4 hits against Illinois State's midweek pitching. The prior 5 midweek games Iowa averaged 11 runs on 12 hits.
 
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Baseball is a weird game. Midweek games get even weirder. Just yesterday #3 Arkansas lost to Missouri State, #8 UCLA lost to Long Beach State, #25 Florida State lost to Stetson, Rutger lost to Seton Hall.

Illinois State has wins against Arkansas, Purdue, Illinois, Dallas Baptist (2x), and Iowa. The MVC is the 6th ranked conference compared the B1G at 8th. Technically, they play in a stronger conference.

The biggest takeaway from last night is that Iowa's offense was only able to muster 2 runs on 4 hits against Illinois State's midweek pitching. The prior 5 midweek games Iowa averaged 11 runs on 12 hits.
BAU
 

ipiteu2

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Iowa's offense has been for the most part putrid. As I mentioned earlier in the year that we have a very young team and have been less critical due to that, but most are everyday players. I just looked and we're 2nd in strikeouts coupled with 194th in runs. I'm guessing once the season is over hitting will be a priority along with pitching and throwing strikes.
 

whatsup13579er

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Iowa's offense has been for the most part putrid. As I mentioned earlier in the year that we have a very young team and have been less critical due to that, but most are everyday players. I just looked and we're 2nd in strikeouts coupled with 194th in runs. I'm guessing once the season is over hitting will be a priority along with pitching and throwing strikes.
There were several times last night when I yelled at my phone to ‘put the f*ing ball in play’ last night. If Iowa puts the ball I play in the 8th they tie it up. Frustrating.
 
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ipiteu2

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I don't recall a year where they've had this much trouble putting the ball in play, and throw consistant strikes. It sucks when the pitchers get hit around, but if your losing d/t walks/unforced errors it gets maddening. I understand the players aren't intentially doing this and some of this falls on the coaches to make the adjustments.
 

KyleHuesmann

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Reached out to Kendall Rogers and this is straight from him…

“I would say Iowa needs to be in the Top 60s in the RPI to get into the field. They do that and finish with that kind of record, I could definitely see them squeak in. The issue right now is that Illinois is probably slightly ahead of them.“

Going back to what has been roughly laid out…
3-0 vs Purdue +60
2-1 at MSU +10
1-0 at UIC +20
3-0 vs Indiana +15

That would give Iowa 105 points and put them right around 60 in the RPI. A sweep of Purdue or MSU is a must and Indiana probably is a must sweep. If they lost one to MSU and Purdue, they would probably be mid 60s RPI and depending on the BTT matchups they could get there with a couple wins.
 
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SWIowahawks

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Reached out to Kendall Rogers and this is straight from him…

“I would say Iowa needs to be in the Top 60s in the RPI to get into the field. They do that and finish with that kind of record, I could definitely see them squeak in. The issue right now is that Illinois is probably slightly ahead of them.“

Going back to what has been roughly laid out…
3-0 vs Purdue +60
2-1 at MSU +10
1-0 at UIC +20
3-0 vs Indiana +15

That would give Iowa 105 points and put them right around 60 in the RPI. A sweep of Purdue or MSU is a must and Indiana probably is a must sweep. If they lost one to MSU and Purdue, they would probably be mid 60s RPI and depending on the BTT matchups they could get there with a couple wins.
Thanks for reaching out but this team isn’t coming close to finishing 9-1. The Gophers aren’t walking through the door. It’s BTT championship or bust.
 

whatsup13579er

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The current predictor has Iowa 32-17 (16-8) losing 1 to MSU and 2 to Indiana and finishing 44 in RPI. Not sure how the math checks out on that one other than everything must have gone right with Iowa's opponents winning.

It also has Illinois finishing 3-3 in conference at 15-9 with an 86 RPI and that is exactly what Iowa needs.

It gets really hard when you talk about must sweeps.
 

whatsup13579er

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Hawkeyes gain 25 points with a win and lose 43 points with a loss.

Win 2/3 and it’s roughly a 5-10 point weekend. Sweep and they can gain 65-75 and jump up into the mid 60s.
I was hoping for a little better than +25 with a win. Good news is a series win is net positive. A sweep would be awesome. Purdue not having their Ace helps!
 

AuroraHawk

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I was hoping for a little better than +25 with a win. Good news is a series win is net positive. A sweep would be awesome. Purdue not having their Ace helps!
Is he definitely out? On Tuesday, the hosts of B1G Baseball Podcast suggested that he might be back for the Iowa series. I've been up to my ears in work related stuff this week and haven't been able to pay as close attention as I would have liked.
 

whatsup13579er

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Is he definitely out? On Tuesday, the hosts of B1G Baseball Podcast suggested that he might be back for the Iowa series. I've been up to my ears in work related stuff this week and haven't been able to pay as close attention as I would have liked.
According to Kyle, he's not pitching this weekend.
 

KyleHuesmann

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According to Kyle, he's not pitching this weekend.
Sunday is TBA for Purdue, so I guess he could slot in there, but I would be surprised because he wouldn’t be able to throw Friday of next week.

Purdue is right on the edge of the BTT cut line, so if he is ready to go they may go for it.
 
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whatsup13579er

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That would hurt Iowa’s RPI, but 1 would be nice to try to help Iowa distance themselves from Illinois.
This is great. We can't have Illinois go on a run but we also can't have them tank. Illinois (+0/-65) will lose RPI points in the series this weekend. 1 loss would likely drop Illinois into the 80s. 2 losses will have them pushing 90.

1 loss should be enough to get them off of the bubble for now while being indirectly RPI positive for Iowa.
 
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whatsup13579er

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Also to note Michigan is +10/-54 at home against Indiana this weekend. Iowa should be very similar in a couple weeks. Maybe even better if Indiana gets closer to that .500 mark.
 

AuroraHawk

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That would hurt Iowa’s RPI, but 1 would be nice to try to help Iowa distance themselves from Illinois.
Frankly, at this point, I'd take the (-4.9) points to create separation in the B1G standings. Hopefully, some of Iowa's other earlier opponents have good weekends and offset any loss by Illinois.
 
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KyleHuesmann

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Sunday is TBA for Purdue, so I guess he could slot in there, but I would be surprised because he wouldn’t be able to throw Friday of next week.

Purdue is right on the edge of the BTT cut line, so if he is ready to go they may go for it.
I have been informed that Jackson Smeltz did not make the trip.
 
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KyleHuesmann

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If everything goes Iowa’s way the rest of the night…

St Thomas wins in extras vs Oral Robert’s
Nebraska finishes out 9-5 lead
UC Irvine upsets UCSB

Iowa will sit at 71 going into tomorrow. Could have a shot at 63-66 range with a sweep.
 

KyleHuesmann

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If everything goes Iowa’s way the rest of the night…

St Thomas wins in extras vs Oral Robert’s
Nebraska finishes out 9-5 lead
UC Irvine upsets UCSB

Iowa will sit at 71 going into tomorrow. Could have a shot at 63-66 range with a sweep.
I lied. Iowa cannot get above #72. If UCI wins they will hop Iowa.
 

SWIowahawks

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If everything goes Iowa’s way the rest of the night…

St Thomas wins in extras vs Oral Robert’s
Nebraska finishes out 9-5 lead
UC Irvine upsets UCSB

Iowa will sit at 71 going into tomorrow. Could have a shot at 63-66 range with a sweep.
Mid 60’s with a sweep would be ok with me.
 

AuroraHawk

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FYI. Michigan is playing Indiana at home this weekend. A win is worth 9 points. A loss will cost them 54 points.

Probably a fair comparable for the Iowa/IU series in Iowa City.

Found it interesting that Iowa’s radio announcer stated that Iowa is “far ahead” of Illinois in RPI when - in reality - Illinois is ahead of Iowa right now. Miami(OH) could change that quickly by taking one of the two doubleheader games this weekend.
 

BigOHawk

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FYI. Michigan is playing Indiana at home this weekend. A win is worth 9 points. A loss will cost them 54 points.

Probably a fair comparable for the Iowa/IU series in Iowa City.

Found it interesting that Iowa’s radio announcer stated that Iowa is “far ahead” of Illinois in RPI when - in reality - Illinois is ahead of Iowa right now. Miami(OH) could change that quickly by taking one of the two doubleheader games this weekend.
Are we pulling for Rutgers or Maryland? I'm torn a bit on b10 standings vs RPI.
 

HawkeyeGenius

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Maryland gains 46 points with a win over Rutgers. They only lose 1 with a loss. They take 2/3 or sweep they will put themselves in the hosting discussion.
 
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KyleHuesmann

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I know you guys like digging up the projected RPI points gained.

If I am not mistaken based on other games I looked at from this weekend, Iowa could potentially get up near 60 in the RPI with a sweep next week and potentially into the 50s if they beat Illinois-Chicago on the road.
 
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KyleHuesmann

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I know you guys like digging up the projected RPI points gained.

If I am not mistaken based on other games I looked at from this weekend, Iowa could potentially get up near 60 in the RPI with a sweep next week and potentially into the 50s if they beat Illinois-Chicago on the road.
Hawkeyes are 56 points out of 60th and 107 points out of 55th.
 
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SWIowahawks

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I know you guys like digging up the projected RPI points gained.

If I am not mistaken based on other games I looked at from this weekend, Iowa could potentially get up near 60 in the RPI with a sweep next week and potentially into the 50s if they beat Illinois-Chicago on the road.
Indiana is hopefully going to break into the top 100 and be a positive RPI bump just by taking 2/3 at the end of the year. They have a game with Louisville this week that would be fun if they won.
 

HawkeyeGenius

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I know you guys like digging up the projected RPI points gained.

If I am not mistaken based on other games I looked at from this weekend, Iowa could potentially get up near 60 in the RPI with a sweep next week and potentially into the 50s if they beat Illinois-Chicago on the road.
Saw a warren nolan projection of 13-11 in conference, 29-20 overall with an RPI of 55. I don't think that happens record wise, but I got a chuckle.
 

KyleHuesmann

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Indiana is hopefully going to break into the top 100 and be a positive RPI bump just by taking 2/3 at the end of the year. They have a game with Louisville this week that would be fun if they won.
I was actually just looking at that just now.

They have Louisville, Minnesota and Illinois State before Iowa. If they can win 4/5 they will be 26-26 coming into the series.

If Iowa wins their next 4 games, you are just hoping for a break even against Indiana with 2/3 imo. Then 2-2 in Omaha gets you in depending on the wins and losses. Lots of forecasting still. Just have to let the numbers/games play out.
 
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HawkeyeGenius

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MSU pitching will be on shortened rest as well with two games today and one tomorrow. Probably a bit overrated thought.
 

SWIowahawks

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I was actually just looking at that just now.

They have Louisville, Minnesota and Illinois State before Iowa. If they can win 4/5 they will be 26-26 coming into the series.

If Iowa wins their next 4 games, you are just hoping for a break even against Indiana with 2/3 imo. Then 2-2 in Omaha gets you in depending on the wins and losses. Lots of forecasting still. Just have to let the numbers/games play out.
It’s good to still be crunching numbers. Two weeks ago we thought losing to Illinois State, Nebraska, and Purdue was a death sentence. Not so much yet.
 

KyleHuesmann

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It’s good to still be crunching numbers. Two weeks ago we thought losing to Illinois State, Nebraska, and Purdue was a death sentence. Not so much yet.
I never thought 2/3 against Nebraska and Purdue was going to end it. I really thought Illinois State was going to be the one.
 
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