Sagarin Ranks Iowa #18, #9 SOS
- Thread starter IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life
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Wisconsin's schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher
I will be convinced this team is the 2008 Hawkeyes come back to life if Iowa can beat Wisconsin on the road.
Until yesterday I was hoping for a 2015 type game in Madison...now, I'm thinking the Hawks might just score more than 10 points.
I believe we are better than we and others give us credit. Our losses, all close, are to good teams. NW is a good team, probably on par with ISU. We can beat Wisconsin but then again we could lose big. I also believe that the B1G has a number of good teams who could beat most (not all) other conferences top teams. If we weren't beating up on each other the top B1G teams would be highly ranked, we'll see in bowl season.
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Sagarin clearly has Iowa as the best 3 loss team in the country right now. They will need to keep rolling to maintain that claim for the rest of the year. I’d be very pleased to see that loss number staying static for the next four games. Iowa definitely not under the radar anymore.
We finally got a solid performance from our O-line. That cannot be understated. If this is truly what a BF offense looks like, holy smokes! When execution and creative playcalling meet, you got dynamite. If we can finish the season out with this kind of offense, our recruiting is about to take an uptick. Keep our JUCO DE commit we are going to hammer it next year. I am actually looking forward to bowl season now.
I agree with you.
Models like Saragin don't reflect efficiency by possession like a KenPom basketball model would. Typically, Iowa plays low possession games to leverage their defense and in turn Iowa doesn't inflate margin of victory when they are clearly the better team. This is penalized in a model like Saragin which is based mostly on point differential.
Iowa's strategy is also why they are susceptible to upsets, both in their favor and against them.
The OSU game result varied by 44 points from a pre-game Sagarin model prediction. This game result moved ratings significantly.
Lowered OSU from 2 to 6. They lost 4.5 points.
Raised Iowa from 27 to 18. They gained 4.5 points.
This game single handily moved the Big Ten West from the 10th most powerful division to 7th.
Interesting to note, the SEC East is the weakest power 5 Division in Football. According to this model, Georgia at #1 and Wisky at #9 wouldn't be something one should infer. Per the Sagarin model, the SEC East is 7 points weaker than the Big Ten West and 11 points weaker than the Big Ten East.
Personally, I was rooting for a bigger margin after it appeared the game was determined. I was curious what a 31+ point Iowa victory would mean for models like this. I was disappointed after the fake punt and then relieved the Hawks decided to score a touchdown with their fullback to get the points back. Kirk's level of class is also penalized in the Saragin model.
The fans need some kudos as well. Someone needs to test what Kinnick night games are worth in terms of points. My gut says 7.
lol. Good one. I have to admit, I expect Wisconsin's D to show up. It'll be a dogfight.
Strength of Schedule cannot be overestimated in the
reality test for top teams. Wisconsin will have played
Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan from the BiG Ten East.
Iowa will have played Penn St., Ohio St, and Mich. St
from the BiG Ten East. That is the big difference between
the Badgers and the Hawkeyes.
reality test for top teams. Wisconsin will have played
Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan from the BiG Ten East.
Iowa will have played Penn St., Ohio St, and Mich. St
from the BiG Ten East. That is the big difference between
the Badgers and the Hawkeyes.
First time in last 15 years where isu actually helps and doesn’t hurt our SOS.
