Stock Pickers thread

[bunsen82]

1. speculative - TTCF - very short term play 15 days - this is a stock currently in a short squeeze, over 25% short, no availability to short more and and the cost to keep on the short is very high. Currently $20.78 could get to $25 to $26 - I have nothing invested currently downside could be very large if the market starts to tumble.

2. Long term play GPRO (Go Pro) - Stock trades at $10. Has essentially been a hated stock, Covid forced the company to do Online sales -which they make much higher margin on and they have started a subscription business - $50 per a year, essentially included in bundle if you purchase directly from GoPro. This subscription business is 70-80% margin, big money. Last year they were at 400,000 subscribers, this year 2nd qtr at 1.2 million expected to be at 1.7 million subscriber by end of year and continuing to go up. This is currently 5% of revenue can grow to 10%, and with such high margins will add a lot to the bottom line. By my calcs they should bring in income of $1 next year. I would expect the PE should be around 20 for a decent growth company could be higher. Thus this is a company I am looking at being a double. Even if there is a pullback in growth, this could be viewed as a value play and actually go up. I use a call structure, sell January 2023, try to create a trade that I can make at least 50% return for 12-18 month period. I have some downside protection if market goes haywire.

 

[bunsen82]

Speculative XIN - trades at $2 - chinese stock so proceed with caution. The have been delayed on reporting their Annual and 1st quarter financials, there is an issue with one of their subsidiaries. The subsidiary is to report by the end of the month (today or tomorrow) - I tend to think it will be extended another month. Once the subsidiary reports they should be able to report. They already issued a bond report, and the bonds are trading very strong. Fair value should be around $7.50. If they report, could restart dividends, possibly 5 cents a quarter. Would be 10% dividend annual payout. If they report I think the stock immediately could get to $3 to $3.50.

 

[bunsen82]

Fyi it doesn't take much to move the stock price on XIN, I purchased $25,000, at 2.06, stock jumped suddenly to $2.10.

 

[frydaze]

1. speculative - TTCF - very short term play 15 days - this is a stock currently in a short squeeze, over 25% short, no availability to short more and and the cost to keep on the short is very high. Currently $20.78 could get to $25 to $26 - I have nothing invested currently downside could be very large if the market starts to tumble.

2. Long term play GPRO (Go Pro) - Stock trades at $10. Has essentially been a hated stock, Covid forced the company to do Online sales -which they make much higher margin on and they have started a subscription business - $50 per a year, essentially included in bundle if you purchase directly from GoPro. This subscription business is 70-80% margin, big money. Last year they were at 400,000 subscribers, this year 2nd qtr at 1.2 million expected to be at 1.7 million subscriber by end of year and continuing to go up. This is currently 5% of revenue can grow to 10%, and with such high margins will add a lot to the bottom line. By my calcs they should bring in income of $1 next year. I would expect the PE should be around 20 for a decent growth company could be higher. Thus this is a company I am looking at being a double. Even if there is a pullback in growth, this could be viewed as a value play and actually go up. I use a call structure, sell January 2023, try to create a trade that I can make at least 50% return for 12-18 month period. I have some downside protection if market goes haywire.

This is a great start Brunsen. Your knowledge obviously is outstanding. I have a feeling you'll make all of us look bad here.

Have you or anyone else here been invested more recently with Mastercard or WYNN casinos? I've put much into both recently.

 

[bunsen82]

In 20

This is a great start Brunsen. Your knowledge obviously is outstanding. I have a feeling you'll make all of us look bad here.

Have you or anyone else here been invested more recently with Mastercard or WYNN casinos? I've put much into both recently.

I was in the casinos back in 2008 made 150% return in 3 days. Wish I would have stayed invested. Haven't played with them recently or the credit card companies.

 

[NDallasRuss]

So, I've got a question...

I'm in the middle of what I think may be a good lesson for me to learn about "meme stocks". Based on reading WSB one day I took a couple of fliers on the following:

KOSS: KOSS CORP
MVST: MICROVAST HOLDINGS INC

They've since gone down - KOSS 7 1/2%, MVST 22 1/2%.

I'm afraid I bought into them at the end of them being "pumped", and ended up holding the bag. But, I know these things ebb and flow pretty wildly. I bought them last week. I'm not normally one to churn through trades, but if it's just going to be a long, steady decline from what was a temporary, artificially-inflated high, maybe I should get out now before it gets worse.

So, do I cut bait and stop messing with BS garbage stocks I see people memeing about on WSB, or do I continue to let them sit, because they may end up coming back around?

 

[NDallasRuss]

Today I picked up some JETS. It's down around 15% over the last three months as Delta threatens to shut back down traveling. It's still ~30% off what it was at pre-covid, I guess it's not an overly "short term" buy, but I think more people get back to traveling, and it rebounds some as we move into the holidays.

 

[bunsen82]

FYI - new board meeting for XIN to discuss Financial reports and dividends, looks like their going to report. I've purchased a decent amount today. I had initial said not to bid below $2.10, you may have to bid above if interested.

 

[bunsen82]

So, I've got a question...

I'm in the middle of what I think may be a good lesson for me to learn about "meme stocks". Based on reading WSB one day I took a couple of fliers on the following:

KOSS: KOSS CORP
MVST: MICROVAST HOLDINGS INC

They've since gone down - KOSS 7 1/2%, MVST 22 1/2%.

I'm afraid I bought into them at the end of them being "pumped", and ended up holding the bag. But, I know these things ebb and flow pretty wildly. I bought them last week. I'm not normally one to churn through trades, but if it's just going to be a long, steady decline from what was a temporary, artificially-inflated high, maybe I should get out now before it gets worse.

So, do I cut bait and stop messing with BS garbage stocks I see people memeing about on WSB, or do I continue to let them sit, because they may end up coming back around?

cut bait, don't follow meme stocks unless somehow you are in before or during. Then can sell out, awefully hard to win after they have been pumped, stay away from Wallstreetbets, common day boiler room.

 

[NDallasRuss]

cut bait, don't follow meme stocks unless somehow you are in before or during. Then can sell out, awefully hard to win after they have been pumped, stay away from Wallstreetbets, common day boiler room.

I guess that was my lesson: not knowing whether it was "during" or "after" until it was too late. Thanks for that!

 

[bunsen82]

I feel pretty confident XIN is going to pop in the next couple weeks, would actually recommend it as a stock to pick up. They are going to sign off on the subsidiary financials tomorrow it appears. Then should be able to sign off on theirs fairly quickly. Any issues and fear of non reporting should be over. It is a chinese stock, which are not liked and it has some political risk, but the primary risk here was the reporting in my opinion. I put on a fairly sized position for me. No more than 20% of portfolio, but I feel pretty confident in it. Once it reports I will begin to pair back the trade.

 

[bunsen82]

I guess that was my lesson: not knowing whether it was "during" or "after" until it was too late. Thanks for that!

Always make sure you know what you are purchasing and what you think the value is, not whether its a short squeeze or not. Now I did mention one above, but for me it is not a long term play and I am not playing in it in TTCF. Always know what is the story with the stock and why it can go up. If you don't know what you own, get out or do some research. You are responsible for your stocks when you are buying them. Put in a little Due Diligence you will likely have more success and enjoy the stock market.

 

[NDallasRuss]

I feel pretty confident XIN is going to pop in the next couple weeks, would actually recommend it as a stock to pick up. They are going to sign off on the subsidiary financials tomorrow it appears. Then should be able to sign off on theirs fairly quickly. Any issues and fear of non reporting should be over. It is a chinese stock, which are not liked and it has some political risk, but the primary risk here was the reporting in my opinion. I put on a fairly sized position for me. No more than 20% of portfolio, but I feel pretty confident in it. Once it reports I will begin to pair back the trade.

I tried to buy some using the money from selling the meme stocks and got the message "This order cannot be placed. Orders for stocks trading less than $3 per share and opening option orders require cash from recent deposits to be cleared and collected which usually takes 4-6 days." I'll have to keep an eye on when the cash settles and do it then. (Fidelity)

 

[bunsen82]

I tried to buy some using the money from selling the meme stocks and got the message "This order cannot be placed. Orders for stocks trading less than $3 per share and opening option orders require cash from recent deposits to be cleared and collected which usually takes 4-6 days." I'll have to keep an eye on when the cash settles and do it then. (Fidelity)

I can immediately trade on Vanguard, but then cannot sell the stock if I am using unsettled funds for 48 hours. Keep an eye on it. I think it will have a slight pop tomorrow, bigger pop when they announce their financial results with dividends also likely.

 

[NDallasRuss]

Always make sure you know what you are purchasing and what you think the value is, not whether its a short squeeze or not. Now I did mention one above, but for me it is not a long term play and I am not playing in it in TTCF. Always know what is the story with the stock and why it can go up. If you don't know what you own, get out or do some research. You are responsible for your stocks when you are buying them. Put in a little Due Diligence you will likely have more success and enjoy the stock market.

I think that's been the case for ~95% of the stocks I've bought/sold/owned. I have a small amount (~$1k) for messing with these speculative stocks that, you're right, I don't know anything about. I guess I was encouraged by it because I made some money on AMC a few months ago.

 

[Pepperman]

Xinyuan has a boat load of net debt (by my calc 3.5-4x EBITDA) and the property development side of the Chinese economy is purposely being slowed … but these facts have to be fairly understood in the market.

I’m genuinely curious how you found this company? It has no “street” coverage and no consensus estimates of future profitability. Dividend estimates from Bloomberg indicate only 2.5 cents (usd cents) per quarter going forward so not sure the yield would be more than 4.5% annualized. You can get many other large cap property developers in China with yields on the 11-14% range (Shimao Group, Sunac)

I have no idea what the issue was with delayed financials for a subsidiary but generally that means there’s an accounting issue or some regulatory problem and neither seems like a positive to me… then again maybe this is all discounted and ripe for a buy.

 

[bunsen82]

Xinyuan has a boat load of net debt (by my calc 3.5-4x EBITDA) and the property development side of the Chinese economy is purposely being slowed … but these facts have to be fairly understood in the market.

I’m genuinely curious how you found this company? It has no “street” coverage and no consensus estimates of future profitability. Dividend estimates from Bloomberg indicate only 2.5 cents (usd cents) per quarter going forward so not sure the yield would be more than 4.5% annualized. You can get many other large cap property developers in China with yields on the 11-14% range (Shimao Group, Sunac)

I have no idea what the issue was with delayed financials for a subsidiary but generally that means there’s an accounting issue or some regulatory problem and neither seems like a positive to me… then again maybe this is all discounted and ripe for a buy.

Honestly, I have a dad who is also a CPA, this investment has been a baby of his for the last 6-7 years. He has made his money on this stock, through dividends and calls. You really want a stock that has no street coverage. BKUTK. Its a bank in New York. Currently trading at 40% of book value, however it trades like 10 shares a day on average. I can handle being in a stock that has little liquidity, many cannot. It has a dividend of just under 4% a year, and continues to increase its dividend every year. That is essentially my bond portfolio with a very high ceiling if it ever sells out. However, they have a son that will take over the bank. They have an investment arm, if the son ever takes over, I would be interested if they ever buy their own stock. Its a bit quirky but for me a very interesting stock.

As to XIN, most likely a lease issue with the subsidiary that is material for the subsidiary but not material for XIn. Most likely claimed income all in one year rather than over time like most leases should be. This would just be a timing issue nothing more. Ernst and Young is the auditor. My guess is E & Y didn't catch it in prior years now have to clean it up. There may be other issues but that is my guess at this point. You have to understand this is something up my dads wheelhouse, he may be wrong, but usually not. I do very little financial reporting so I don't pretend to be an expert by any means, but I have a decent understanding. There is also a possibility they increase their dividend to 5 cents a quarter, which would pay out 15 cents for the last 3 quarters. As an aside before the pandemic the dividend was 10 cents a qtr, if that was reinstituted this stock would pop quickly. That would be nearly a 20% dividend yield.

I like stocks, where I can do the homework on, I can figure out the information and the likely outcome, before the reporting and before it becomes mainstream information. In some instances this is easier on small stocks because of the limited coverage. This allows for a decent return to be accrued. With my dads stocks, I will listen and then when a story or opportunity arises I feel fairly comfortable to take a decent bet. This included when GM went bankrupt, the bonds were still trading, Dad felt there was more value that in the negotiation the bondholders would get more, I purchased at like 8 cents per a bond, I sold before they stopped trading the bonds for like 18 cents.

 

[Bonerfarts]

I've sold Puts on MVST and WISH. Sept 17th expire for both, MVST at the 7.5 Strike and WISH at the 6.5 Strike. Both are printing. I started a small position on ISWH (Bitcoin Mining OTC) and BCTX see below.

BriaCell Therapeutics Attacks Cancer with Novel Off-the-Shelf Immunotherapies

Photo by Chokniti Khongchum from Pexels In 2020, there were 2.3 million women globally diagnosed with breast cancer and 685,000 deaths, according to the World Health Organization. In the U.S., 12.9% of women born in the country today will develop breast cancer at some time during their lifetime...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Viv_Savage]

Wallstreetbets is all shills now. Anyone who used to go there is long gone.

The dead giveaway is the Robinhood app screenshots. Anyone with half a brain would not use that joke of a broker.

 

[bunsen82]

So I do want to make it clear, Chinese stocks are disliked, this includes BABA, XIN, and many other Chinese stocks and the biggest issues are the VIE structure and the inability for a full audit of Chinese books. That is the risk, the positive is these stocks are cheap while everything else is overvalued. Last year when the market was crashing, people said Reits were trash, I made 300% on portion of my portfolio in three weeks. Last summer they said oil and natural gas stocks were done, yeah they bounced back hard. There is always a value where people will come in, and I do think Chinese stocks will get some positive momentum who knows when. For now if XIN can have a decent dividend that should entice some decent buyers and it pays me to wait until sentiment changes.

 

[bunsen82]

Update - XIN is trading at 2.24, up 15 cents. Still probably an ok spot to start a position, wouldn't buy above $2.35. Still looking to sell out at $3 to $3.50 unless it spikes higher.

 

[frydaze]

Update - XIN is trading at 2.24, up 15 cents. Still probably an ok spot to start a position, wouldn't buy above $2.35. Still looking to sell out at $3 to $3.50 unless it spikes higher.

I just saw that too bunsen. I got in on some more at $2.23 ! Great pic it looks like it could be!

 

[HawkMachine]

Just bought some, what the hell.

Only put 3k in though.

In at $2.25.

Not really into dividend paying stocks but looks like a decent dividend with potential for capital gain.

 

[bunsen82]

Just bought some, what the hell.

Only put 3k in though.

In at $2.25.

Not really into dividend paying stocks but looks like a decent dividend with potential for capital gain.

Wish you me and Frydaze good luck. I definitely like its short term prospects. long term picture has the potential to be good too.

 

[bunsen82]

As an aside I will always give you guys a heads up before I sell out, It will be a lot easier for you guys to sell out and not move XIN than it will be for me. I will try to sell mine gradually, hopefully on a huge volume day, but this is the type of thing, I want you guys to do well on these trades, I am not here to take advantage of you guys.

 

[86Hawkeye]

1. speculative - TTCF - very short term play 15 days - this is a stock currently in a short squeeze, over 25% short, no availability to short more and and the cost to keep on the short is very high. Currently $20.78 could get to $25 to $26 - I have nothing invested currently downside could be very large if the market starts to tumble.

2. Long term play GPRO (Go Pro) - Stock trades at $10. Has essentially been a hated stock, Covid forced the company to do Online sales -which they make much higher margin on and they have started a subscription business - $50 per a year, essentially included in bundle if you purchase directly from GoPro. This subscription business is 70-80% margin, big money. Last year they were at 400,000 subscribers, this year 2nd qtr at 1.2 million expected to be at 1.7 million subscriber by end of year and continuing to go up. This is currently 5% of revenue can grow to 10%, and with such high margins will add a lot to the bottom line. By my calcs they should bring in income of $1 next year. I would expect the PE should be around 20 for a decent growth company could be higher. Thus this is a company I am looking at being a double. Even if there is a pullback in growth, this could be viewed as a value play and actually go up. I use a call structure, sell January 2023, try to create a trade that I can make at least 50% return for 12-18 month period. I have some downside protection if market goes haywire.

CRTX. AMTI.

 

[frydaze]

As an aside I will always give you guys a heads up before I sell out, It will be a lot easier for you guys to sell out and not move XIN than it will be for me. I will try to sell mine gradually, hopefully on a huge volume day, but this is the type of thing, I want you guys to do well on these trades, I am not here to take advantage of you guys.

Really appreciate this bunsen. I've gotten to know you bunsen in a short time. You're a good dude and really sharp and truly sincere about educating us better on things.

 

[bunsen82]

CRTX. AMTI.

can't decipher what this in reference to?

 

[bunsen82]

------ Xinyuan Service (01895) 2020 profit attributable to shareholders increased by 61.28% year-on-year to 131 million yuan ------
Xinyuan Service (01895) issued an announcement that for the year ended December 31, 2020, the company realized revenue of RMB 654 million, an increase of 22.43% year-on-year, and profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 131 million, an increase of year-on-year 61.28%, basic earnings per share of 26.34 cents, and final dividend of 10.2 HK cents per share.

　　The announcement stated that the net profit margin was 20.2%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from 15.3% in the same period last year, thanks to the improvement of the group's internal management efficiency; the continuous improvement of cost management capabilities; and the scale effect and the increase in high-profit businesses.

Here is the subsidiary report. Step 1. Now need the Parent XIN to report its Annual 2020. The subsidiary is stating will report its qtr 1 and 2 by sept. 30th. Ummm - might be in this a little longer than I want to be. I was hoping this would be 1-2 week trade.

 

[Car-go]

I’m in Corsair pretty heavy. Was in them before WSB started talking about them as a tip from a coworker. They are criminally undervalued but have some downward pressure as some people think they’re a covid play (make PC/Gaming hardware) and the news from China is a downer

 

[Car-go]

HUT is my other favorite. It’s increasing mining compute very quickly, and is much cheaper than MARA or RIOT. Wouldn’t probably buy at these levels, but if bitcoin drops, I’d hammer some $HUT

 

[bunsen82]

I’m in Corsair pretty heavy. Was in them before WSB started talking about them as a tip from a coworker. They are criminally undervalued but have some downward pressure as some people think they’re a covid play (make PC/Gaming hardware) and the news from China is a downer

This guy knows his stuff. He is saying downside potentially $24-$26 assuming no market crash, could blow through that. I really like his chart work. He is incredibly accurate at good purchase prices to look at - and long term valuation of the trade. Sometimes the stocks get to the price targets to purchase at sometime they don't but give me a better idea of potential upside potential downside.

 

[bunsen82]

Service requires audited financial statement for interim reports while XIN issues unaudited quarterly reports.

Possibility XIN could report everything 1st, have to wait and see.

 

[bunsen82]

HUT is my other favorite. It’s increasing mining compute very quickly, and is much cheaper than MARA or RIOT. Wouldn’t probably buy at these levels, but if bitcoin drops, I’d hammer some $HUT

Not very familiar with HUT.

 

[Hammer93]

I've managed my own portfolio's now for 25 years. I have two rules that I learned the hard way.

1.) Never buy Chinese Stocks...... ever..... ever.......ever. The Chinese government controls those and they are never based on actual earning or forecasts of revenues. They also have some very shady accounting practices. Heed this warning.
2.) I will never ever again buy penny stocks on a websites buy list. They are less then $10 for a reason. If they ever gain success, the bigger companies copy what they do and make their business difficult. With any luck in this scenario, they get purchased and you can make some on the purchase price.

That said, I like Affirm Holdings (AFRM) and purchased several hundred shares this week and will make two more buys over the next 2-4 weeks to diversify the entry price. Affirm teamed up with Amazon and now offers Amazon customers a "buy now, pay later" option when making purchases. The interest rate on those purchases will be between 0% and 30% (take a guess on what most of those purchases will be financed at). I think it's a long term hold that most likely will be purchased by Amazon itself in due time.

 

[bunsen82]

I've managed my own portfolio's now for 25 years. I have two rules that I learned the hard way.

1.) Never buy Chinese Stocks...... ever..... ever.......ever. The Chinese government controls those and they are never based on actual earning or forecasts of revenues. They also have some very shady accounting practices. Heed this warning.
2.) I will never ever again buy penny stocks on a websites buy list. They are less then $10 for a reason. If they ever gain success, the bigger companies copy what they do and make their business difficult. With any luck in this scenario, they get purchased and you can make some on the purchase price.

That said, I like Affirm Holdings (AFRM) and purchased several hundred shares this week and will make two more buys over the next 2-4 weeks to diversify the entry price. Affirm teamed up with Amazon and now offers Amazon customers a "buy now, pay later" option when making purchases. The interest rate on those purchases will be between 0% and 30% (take a guess on what most of those purchases will be financed at). I think it's a long term hold that most likely will be purchased by Amazon itself in due time.

Hammer I tend to agree with both assertions. However I have a pretty good handle on this singular stock and this is primarily a short term trade. I heavily agree, on not buying any penny stocks, unless I have a really really firm handle on the company and the risk reward is heavily in my favor. As to AFRM looks good, but it just popped 38%, it is going to take a while to digest that pop. Hopefully you bought before the pop, I agree easing in on your purchases if you bought after the pop.

 

[frydaze]

I've managed my own portfolio's now for 25 years. I have two rules that I learned the hard way.

1.) Never buy Chinese Stocks...... ever..... ever.......ever. The Chinese government controls those and they are never based on actual earning or forecasts of revenues. They also have some very shady accounting practices. Heed this warning.
2.) I will never ever again buy penny stocks on a websites buy list. They are less then $10 for a reason. If they ever gain success, the bigger companies copy what they do and make their business difficult. With any luck in this scenario, they get purchased and you can make some on the purchase price.

That said, I like Affirm Holdings (AFRM) and purchased several hundred shares this week and will make two more buys over the next 2-4 weeks to diversify the entry price. Affirm teamed up with Amazon and now offers Amazon customers a "buy now, pay later" option when making purchases. The interest rate on those purchases will be between 0% and 30% (take a guess on what most of those purchases will be financed at). I think it's a long term hold that most likely will be purchased by Amazon itself in due time.

AFRM has had a big dip today, may be a good pick up of some more?

 

[NDallasRuss]

Just bought some, what the hell.

Only put 3k in though.

In at $2.25.

Not really into dividend paying stocks but looks like a decent dividend with potential for capital gain.

Wish you me and Frydaze good luck. I definitely like its short term prospects. long term picture has the potential to be good too.

So my cash settled and I got in at $2.26. We'll see how it goes. Bunsen - I appreciate the information. Good luck to us then!

 

[Car-go]

Not very familiar with HUT.

They plan to be mining 20-25 bitcoin per day later this year. It’s a Canadian company who was recently nasdaq listed in the last few months. Every bitcoin they mine, they hold. So if you believe it bitcoin long term; they seem like a good play

 

[bunsen82]

They plan to be mining 20-25 bitcoin per day later this year. It’s a Canadian company who was recently nasdaq listed in the last few months. Every bitcoin they mine, they hold. So if you believe it bitcoin long term; they seem like a good play

I was talking about cryptos with Frydaze. Here is my dilemma, the rise in cryptos is almost exclusively individuals like you and me, especially the rebound since 30,000. Cryptos are generally up 2 years, then down 2 years (crypto winter). Currently up 1.75 years. The stock COIN is severely undervalued if crypto volumes and cryptos continue to go up. Currently trading around $260 - I would say price target is $600 by the end of next year. However if crypto crashes so will Coin and so will HUT. Tough choice, the risk/reward is even to me. Right now I am going to stay out.