Stock Pickers thread
- Thread starter bunsen82
- Start date
I like this strategy but I use it with ETFs mostly, SPY, IWM, XBI, XLE, and TBT for example.I've sold Puts on MVST and WISH. Sept 17th expire for both, MVST at the 7.5 Strike and WISH at the 6.5 Strike. Both are printing. I started a small position on ISWH (Bitcoin Mining OTC) and BCTX see below.
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You guys should be safe this month, but you don’t want to get too cute with an overvalued market that hasn’t had more than a 5% correction in a year.
I bought a lot of Dick’s before earnings. After they crushed it and announced the special dividend, up 36% on stock and 350% on options. Dumped the options already. Stock price will obviously dip after the dividend but I am not sure if I should hold longer term. The price targets are all over the place and average is right around current price.
Well since I’m such a stock expert(lmao) I thought I’d let you know that Dick’s made the cut for The Truth’s 100 fund that I put together on M1. I’m buying and holding for the next 7-8 years until I disappear to Portugal for early retirement.
I rarely catch up on threads that are over a page long… for whatever reason I’ve enjoyed reading this
One thing I’m really lost about. Are you waiting for December numbers on this XIN play? As in - the numbers that are 8 month old? Or what is going on here?
One thing I’m really lost about. Are you waiting for December numbers on this XIN play? As in - the numbers that are 8 month old? Or what is going on here?
Yep they have not reported 2020 annual results or the first 2 quarters. It was an issue with subsidiary. The subsidiary reported today with no restatements, and 25% increase in net profit which will flow to the parent. Xin once they report will announce dividends for the 3 qtrs reported. Their most recent dividend was 2.5 cents a qtr, most likely will be bumped to 5 cents a qtr. Pre covid they were 10 cents a qtr. The stock has been beaten down for being a Chinese stock and not reporting, it’s a small cap though so the stock has spiked twice in the last 6 months to near $3.50. There is at minimum 550,000 shares short, I am waiting to see the short interest for the end of August. I anticipate another spike to $3-$3.50 and level off there, that is where it has previously traded at. Fair value by my calculations is $8. The stock traded up almost 10% today. If they are going to pay a dividend of 15 cents, anyone holding short is going to try to close their short. This a short term play with long term valuations at my back.
I've jumped into Callaway (ELY) the last few weeks. They recently merged with Top Golf, which will be expanding for years, have record sales of their equipment, and TopTracer technology adding additional value. Stock was oversold after last earnings and it seems ripe for a retrace over the next few months. Relatively safe play, particularly at 27-28, with plenty of upside.
It’s a PE ratio so 11. It’s cheap, current 1 yr estimate is 155. Management is doing well. Should do well in 3rd qtr with child credit stimulus as well. Selling calls on the stock isn’t terribly interesting. i think next year will be a down year with all stimulus finished, unless wages continue to increase and offset any difference. I would sell at least 1/3 maybe 1/2 or a little more and let the rest ride. Nice trade.
Definitely seems like a decent valuation. Are the long term trends on declining play still trending downwards? even though they have good margins and merged, it’s still a declining market unless the trends change Is my best understanding. However it is similar to my GoPro play. in a couple days I will lay out a trade that can make around 50% returns in 16 months, fairly safe.
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Kof is solid, the other two are out of my wheelhouse. Anyone else got an opinion on those 2, why don’t you give me the quick synopsis on those 2.
Pepperman, you obviously have knowledge, what is your #1 and Or #2 stock play for the next year?
I am truly amazed how many on here are trading. Congrats. Ok how many just started in the last year? Here is my Biggest concern, and part of the reason I wanted to start this thread. 80% of stock traders are out of the market after 5 years, why they lost money and or lost interest. The last couple years have been exciting, most likely made money, unless they sold in the crash. They underestimate the risks of the market. When retail comes in, it is effectively the end of the trade. Retail has been in strong the last year. I don’t want a lot of you holding the bag in the near future. I mentioned it before CAPE PE and the Buffett indicator we are majorly overvalued. Now I am not saying go completely to cash, but start building a pretty good stock pile. Trim your growth stocks, those are most likely to get slaughtered, value should be a decent hideout. Sell calls to reduce basis and increase cash position. If you traded in 08 you had stocks like the casinos that lost 90%. Everything went down, there really wasn’t any safe haven, some held up better than others. Gold went down initially so did silver just like last year, it’s after the crash they begin to spike. The only safe haven is cash and if we have inflation or stagflation that is a losing money staying in cash, and the thing is once the crash occurs that is the best time to make massive returns. option Premiums are coming down, but generally are still high by historically standards don’t be afraid to use them. Generally down trends last 4-6 months, recently they have been occurring faster. 30% in 2 weeks for covid. That’s nuts, but with high frequency trading that’s what we are up against, one day the market is going to wake up and decide it’s time to sell.
here is the thing when the stock market is going down I get excited, because it means we can get some really good stocks cheap. All I’m saying is be prepared.
here is the thing when the stock market is going down I get excited, because it means we can get some really good stocks cheap. All I’m saying is be prepared.
Just to confirm the quarterly reports from this year for XIN should be strong, their revenue January through August is up 20% over last year. As Pepperman mentioned they are highly leveraged so want to start seeing that debt and Interest expense come down, possibly buy back shares and increase the dividend.
I’ve been trading/investing since probably 2015-2016. I’ve been doing too much trading lately and have racked up a hefty tax bill for 2021. I underpaid in 2020; so I’m pre-paying some taxes for 2021 already. I need to find some deductions
I’ve become addicted. If I went back to college; this is what I’d want to do. Probably with an ag focus. Maybe I’m just a degenerate gambler, but like someone else said earlier.. I don’t go to the bars really, don’t buy fancy shit. I just like buying/selling stonks
As a tax accountant smart. Prepaying in 2021 on federal will also give you more deductions on Iowa. So whatever you pay 8% less taxes Iowa. If you underpaid in 20, those taxes paid will also help you on Iowa this year. I always love to find long term capital gain plays so I am paying 15% federal instead of 22%,24% or 32%. I already paid my estimates for the first 6 months, looks like I am going to have to pay in some more. My wife still complains why we have to pay taxes when the money isn't tangible to her, the money isn't real unless its in her checking account earning .00007% interest
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Great wisdom here bunsen. The market has become a very quick money grab for many who are only looking for big paydays within days. Doesn't work like that-- which is what you're saying here.
I started in April last year. It was a combination of all the stocks tanking because of COVID, and the government giving out the stimulus money. So, I took the money and put it into stocks that were WAY too low - mostly airlines, cruise lines, rental car companies, and Haliburton. After a while I started also putting in a little extra every once in a while. After a lot of those rebounded, I started mostly buying AAPL - figuring it was a good solid stock, and also seeing that it was due to split soon.
Earlier this year I saw about GME and didn't want to do anything with that because I was way too late, but the same thing was happening with AMC. So I bought some at $4, and then sold it at $14 because I thought it was due to come back down - no diamond hands for me!
It's turned into a good hobby for me. I took some of the money out a few months ago to use for a down payment for the kid's car. The rest I keep in there, and keep adding to it when I can - which turns out to be about $500-700/month lately.
This is what it's become like for me too. When I started I figured I'd check in on it once a week or so, but now I find myself looking at things whenever I have a few free minutes. Imagine if I'd learned about this in college, instead of wasting money on guns, tattoos, and booze (the white trash trinity)!
I’m not sure how they can truly regulate it, but I’ve heard Tencent has people working on facial recognition technology … keep in mind there are cameras everywhere in China so they know who everybody is already (and where each person currently is at almost any time). If the government were to say “kids caught playing with their parents accounts will cause the parent to face a penalty”, well, that would probably put a stop to it… most Chinese are smart enough to follow these types of rules, I think.
as for my top picks, I keep things at an index level for the most part, and I wholeheartedly agree with you on investing in non-US markets over the next decade or longer. I’ve also got a job in the industry so I’m careful with any individual stock comments.
Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl
Shiller PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current Shiller PE Ratio is 33.63, a change of +0.09 from previous market close.
www.multpl.com
Here is the chart of the Shiller PE. Only 3% now of all trading days have had higher valuations than they do now, and that was in 1999. The three highest instances of this high of valuations is 1929, 1999, and Now. People say now is different - to an extent, balance sheets are much stronger, cash is better, the issue in my mind is all the zombie companies that were protected last year that should have fallen and others in the past 4-5 years. When interest rates rise their are going to be a lot of bankruptcies. Also the only place in the world to make consistent returns in the last decade is the US, our market is overinvested from foreign money because the fed has continued to protect asset prices with the fed put. Now if we start to crash and the fed steps again, we have no choice but to come in and start buying again. But there are individuals on the fed board who are really getting concerned with the bubble that is occurring in the market, inflation, and the feds balance sheet. They are going to cut back bond purchases likely in November which is when I think we are going to start hitting the turbulent times.
As part of my on-going education, I bought a call option this morning. I'm not sure what to expect, but I didn't put a ton of money in, and I'm hoping I learn some good stuff out of it.
I have a couple of hypothetical questions that I was hoping some of you who are more knowledgeable than myself could answer for me.
I bought the call option because I think the price will go up over time.
If the price goes down in the near-term, but I still think it'll end up going up, should I:
- buy more for the same strike price, and the same expiration date?
- buy some for the next lower strike price, and the same expiration date?
- buy some for the next expiration date further out?
- something else?
If the price goes up right away, and I still think it'll end up going up further over time, should I:
- buy more for the same strike price, and the same expiration date?
- buy some for the next higher strike price, and the same expiration date?
- buy some for the next expiration date further out?
- something else?
Just curious what the strategy for these could be. Thanks!!
I have a couple of hypothetical questions that I was hoping some of you who are more knowledgeable than myself could answer for me.
I bought the call option because I think the price will go up over time.
If the price goes down in the near-term, but I still think it'll end up going up, should I:
- buy more for the same strike price, and the same expiration date?
- buy some for the next lower strike price, and the same expiration date?
- buy some for the next expiration date further out?
- something else?
If the price goes up right away, and I still think it'll end up going up further over time, should I:
- buy more for the same strike price, and the same expiration date?
- buy some for the next higher strike price, and the same expiration date?
- buy some for the next expiration date further out?
- something else?
Just curious what the strategy for these could be. Thanks!!
I’m in the same boat. I just started messing with calls. Did well on some UVXY calls last week and sold them. Rebought 1 contract on Monday and it is down. Bought 3 more then at same expiration date but lower strike price. I see it as averaging down? Idk, I’m just learning too but I was thinking there would be more Afghan turmoil and shake the markets which are already incredibly frothy
With call options, take profits NOW if they spike. I've seen this phrase on Twitter many times: "if it's good enough for a screenshot, sell". Calls really start to decline hard as you get closer to expiration.
If the stock price goes down, you can always roll your call to a future month, you should be able to call your brokerage firm and they will generally do it for you - also get better prices than you or me can do on our own. If a call goes up. you need to know in your head what you expect to do. If your option triples sell at least a third - get your money out of the trade and see what happens with the rest. If the stock gets to the price you expected sell it all.
The advantages of buying calls is you can really limit the amount of capital you are putting in the stock, yet can get very strong returns. The downside is you can lose everything in the call. What I experienced in my past and what a lot of new investors do, is getting too confident and buying too many calls. So lets say they had 25% money they wanted to dedicate to the stock if they were to purchase, rather than using 2.5% or 5% dedicated to the calls, they put all the 25% on the calls. The calls are an amplified way of trading and call structures can get very interesting, whether call spreads, butterflys ect. I only allow myself to sell calls and buy puts.
I am not experienced in calls and options, etc. Only bought/sold. So, this is something I'm interested in learning more about as well.
My first two stocks I purchased were Walmart and Harley when I was around 16 years old. I’m almost 45 if that tells you anything.
When I was around 20 I really started investing. Unfortunately went through the tech bubble. Worldcom anyone? Lying mofos.
Have never stopped though.
Last few stocks I’ve purchased have been GPI, RHI, and TPX.
When I was around 20 I really started investing. Unfortunately went through the tech bubble. Worldcom anyone? Lying mofos.
Have never stopped though.
Last few stocks I’ve purchased have been GPI, RHI, and TPX.
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Thanks for this - this is helpful. I like the point of selling off some once you can cover the amount you spent, just to make sure you make your initial investment back.
XIN
„ 15. RECONCILIATION WITH THE ANNOUNCEMENT DATED 31 MARCH 2021
The Group’s revenue, profit and total comprehensive income for the year, and profit attributable to owners of the parent as reflected in the consolidated statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income for the year ended 31 December 2020 as disclosed in this announcement decreased by RMB6,371,000, when compared with the respective financial statement items disclosed in the unaudited consolidated statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income for the year ended 31 December 2020 published in the Company’s announcement dated 31 March 2021. In addition, the Group’s contract assets, total current assets, net current assets, total assets less current liabilities, net assets, reserves and total equity as disclosed in the statement of financial position as at 31 December 2020 also decreased by RMB6,371,000 when compared with the respective financial statement items in the unaudited statement of financial position as at 31 December 2020 as disclosed in the Company’s announcement dated 31 March 2021. This is because currently the Group still has not yet entered into a sales contract with a third party for a property improvement project which the Group recognized the revenue in its unaudited management accounts based on the progress of completion of the project as at 31 December 2020, and hence such revenue and related contract asset were reversed in the consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2020 as disclosed in this announcement. The relevant costs of sales charged to the profit or loss in the Group’s unaudited management accounts for the year ended 31 December 2020 were not reversed as such costs are not recoverable. The income tax effect of such reversal of revenue is not adjusted because the amount is immaterial.‘
This was most likely the issue on the audited statements, as I stated before, this is a timing issue on claiming revenue and would have an immaterial affect. I am reading through the subsidiaries report.
„ 15. RECONCILIATION WITH THE ANNOUNCEMENT DATED 31 MARCH 2021
The Group’s revenue, profit and total comprehensive income for the year, and profit attributable to owners of the parent as reflected in the consolidated statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income for the year ended 31 December 2020 as disclosed in this announcement decreased by RMB6,371,000, when compared with the respective financial statement items disclosed in the unaudited consolidated statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income for the year ended 31 December 2020 published in the Company’s announcement dated 31 March 2021. In addition, the Group’s contract assets, total current assets, net current assets, total assets less current liabilities, net assets, reserves and total equity as disclosed in the statement of financial position as at 31 December 2020 also decreased by RMB6,371,000 when compared with the respective financial statement items in the unaudited statement of financial position as at 31 December 2020 as disclosed in the Company’s announcement dated 31 March 2021. This is because currently the Group still has not yet entered into a sales contract with a third party for a property improvement project which the Group recognized the revenue in its unaudited management accounts based on the progress of completion of the project as at 31 December 2020, and hence such revenue and related contract asset were reversed in the consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2020 as disclosed in this announcement. The relevant costs of sales charged to the profit or loss in the Group’s unaudited management accounts for the year ended 31 December 2020 were not reversed as such costs are not recoverable. The income tax effect of such reversal of revenue is not adjusted because the amount is immaterial.‘
This was most likely the issue on the audited statements, as I stated before, this is a timing issue on claiming revenue and would have an immaterial affect. I am reading through the subsidiaries report.
My $.02 on constantly looking to see when the pull back of 5% will happen. I see these warnings often on CNBC and some of their experts that come on the air. The truth is, do I want to miss the 15% run up to avoid the 5% pull back? I tried guessing those pull backs and realized that I was way better off staying in the market, eat the 5% pull back, and get the pull back money back over the next few months when the market gets going again. That's my suggestion on managing the volatility. Just relax and understand that those are part of investing. Long term things ALWAYS get better if you are diversified and not always getting in and getting out.
My pick for the day... Albermarle (ALB). My first purchase was a couple of years now I believe. Stock has really taken off with the additional EV battery production and inevitable increase in the need for lithium. Stock is doing great over the past several months now. #1 Lithium producer in the world. Long Term Hold.
The stock i mentioned earlier in the week continues to do well (Affirm Holdings) AFRM. I am long term holder. I can eat a little pullback as I have scheduled two additional purchases over the next 4 weeks to make sure I average out my initial purchase price. I have a hard time finding scenarios that would prohibit them from growing revenues greatly over the next 12 months especially with Xmas sales coming up and Amazon's sales should give them a huge boost right out of the gate with that agreement. 4th quarters results should be ridiculous.
The stock i mentioned earlier in the week continues to do well (Affirm Holdings) AFRM. I am long term holder. I can eat a little pullback as I have scheduled two additional purchases over the next 4 weeks to make sure I average out my initial purchase price. I have a hard time finding scenarios that would prohibit them from growing revenues greatly over the next 12 months especially with Xmas sales coming up and Amazon's sales should give them a huge boost right out of the gate with that agreement. 4th quarters results should be ridiculous.
Hammer - that is why I set up trades that will make me 30% or 40% over the next year, I can have 50% of my money invested, after calls, closer to 45%, I can still get the 15%-20% return for my overall portfolio if the market continues to be irrational, likely still beat the market, but I am ready if the market goes down.
Its not the pullback of 5% I am worried about. I am worried about a 30%-50% pullback. We absolutely could have that. Most likely 30% is the max, but that is how overvalued the market is by valuation standards.
Why wouldn't Amazon just kick Affirm to the curb and offer their own "buy now pay later" financing? Seems like they're leaving money on the table by using a 3rd party.
Gopro is going to be a stud. I have a $20-$25 price target in 2-3 years. In a day or two I will put out my whole strategy and post a video of the popular investor and his analysis. I've done the work, but his information and ideology matches with my thought process. A consolidation phase is nothing to be afraid of. Do your research, if the company is not performing as you expect, you have to decide, is it the market being irrational, or am I missing something and do I need to get out. Most stocks don't go straight up. Gopro's financials are improving drastically and its cheap.
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