It is complicated. As you note, it’s not per se a coaching issue, as there are systemic issues that a new coach will face as well, i.e., a new coach isn’t going to cure those issues for Iowa. Again, not a reason to not start looking for/planning for the day Kirk leaves, but these will be the same challenges for the next coach. And I dare say - it could get worse for the new coach as the spread between programs having the money to buy players will continue to grow. (This part could all end if the NCAA took some affirmative action and created some type of controls over this, but I'm not holding my breath on that happening).Kirk's overall tenure of success is the material equivalent (one could certainly argue that Kirk's tenure has been a bit more successful) to Hayden Fry's tenure. As Fry's tenure approached its end, Iowa's recruiting was horrendous and non-competitive. If anything, Iowa's recent recruiting has been getting better over the past few years. Thus, I agree with you in that - from a talent perspective - it's certainly not getting ugly. The big problem Kirk faces is the B1G has now evolved into a deeper conference and NIL will make it incredibly difficult for Iowa (and many other B1G teams) to crack the top 4 B1G teams on anything resembling a regular basis.
Would that make the end of his tenure "ugly?" Not in my eyes.
I will also note that as Kirk's tenure ends, coaches will negatively recruit against Iowa. The truth is that Kirk is still a draw for recruits to Iowa. Coaches are probably already telling recruits that you have no idea who the coach is going to be, so why take the risk. Maybe that's less of an impact given the transfer portal, but I do think it had something to do with the drop off in talent at the end of Hayden's time at Iowa. There are many benefits to a long-term coach, but this is a risk with a long term coach. This could happen again.
This thread certainly tees up some interesting and relevant topics for Iowa football.