This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
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- Sep 13, 2002
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If it was 2 and not 1 stray missile hitting Poland, I think that makes a difference in how they react. One missile could have been a damaged one that veered off course but two makes it look like it was on purpose.
KYIV, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Russia pounded cities and energy facilities across Ukraine on Tuesday, killing at least one person and causing widespread power outages in what Kyiv said was the heaviest wave of missile strikes in nearly nine months of war.
Missiles rained down on cities including the capital Kyiv, Lviv and Rivne in the west, Kharkiv in the northeast, Kryvyi Rih and Poltava in the centre, Odesa and Mikolaiv in the south and Zhytomyr in the north.
In a video posted online, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned Ukrainians that more missile strikes were possible but added: "We are working, we will restore everything, we will survive."
Power was knocked out in areas of several cities including Kyiv, Lviv and Kharkiv, and the national grid operator announced emergency electricity outages in northern and central regions, and in Kyiv.
www.reuters.com
Missiles rained down on cities including the capital Kyiv, Lviv and Rivne in the west, Kharkiv in the northeast, Kryvyi Rih and Poltava in the centre, Odesa and Mikolaiv in the south and Zhytomyr in the north.
In a video posted online, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned Ukrainians that more missile strikes were possible but added: "We are working, we will restore everything, we will survive."
Power was knocked out in areas of several cities including Kyiv, Lviv and Kharkiv, and the national grid operator announced emergency electricity outages in northern and central regions, and in Kyiv.
Russia pounds Ukraine in heaviest missile strikes of war
Russia pounded cities and energy facilities across Ukraine on Tuesday, killing at least one person and causing widespread power outages in what Kyiv said was the heaviest wave of missile strikes in nearly nine months of war.
www.reuters.com
Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller did not immediately confirm the information from a senior U.S. intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the situation. But Mueller said top leaders were holding an emergency meeting due to a “crisis situation.”
Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine.
Neighboring Moldova was also affected. It reported massive power outages after the strikes knocked out a key power line that supplies the small nation, an official said.
apnews.com
Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine.
Neighboring Moldova was also affected. It reported massive power outages after the strikes knocked out a key power line that supplies the small nation, an official said.
Correction: Russia-Ukraine-War story
In earlier versions of a story published November 15, 2022, The Associated Press reported erroneously, based on information from a senior American intelligence official who spoke on condition of anonymity, that Russian missiles had crossed into Poland and killed two people.
apnews.com
- Sep 13, 2002
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What worries me is I have had a feeling that Poland is itching for a fight. I think they are absolutely licking their chops at the state of Russia's Army, and armed with NATO weapons, would love nothing more than to unleash a century or more of pent up fury on the Russkies.
While I understand the sentiment, that is very, very dangerous for everyone on Earth. I worry they will use this as a Gulf of Tonkin type pretext.
Hopefully I'm just being a nervous nellie.
I don't think article 5 gets invoked here.....probably some behind the scenes negotiating to keep Poland from demanding it.
If Poland presses for it things get dicey.
This is probably the diciest moment of the war for sure....a lot depends on how Poland responds. If they invoke article 5 it'll get really interesting....hopefully they don't.
I think I posted within the first 10 pages of this thread to give Poland a reason to do something. Well, here you go, light em up......accident or not
We had a discussion about this exact scenario hundreds of pages ago. I think the consensus was that if this was accidental that it doesn't invoke Article 5. Poland can sue Russia, look for an apology, and seek reparations.
Having said that, as someone else mentioned, if this was two rockets the accidental possibility drops significantly. I'd also ask how close to the border did these rockets hit and are their targets of military significance on the Ukrainian side of the border. If Ukraine is putting important military equipment right next to the Poland border and these rockets both hit just on the other side of the border, then I could see a conclusion of accidental also.
But, if Russian rockets were targeting civilian locations, which is likely to be true, then I think people can make an argument that this wasn't accidental. That instead Russia is firing indiscriminately with no concern for the ramifications of their attack. Thus that attack hitting Poland would be intentional and could invoke Article 5.
Basically the difference between a hunter in the woods missing his target and hitting another hunter he didn't even know was there or a drive by shooting that sprays a bunch of bullets at a house and hits a child in their bedroom. The former was an accident, the latter was an intentional attack with an unintended victim.
Having said that, as someone else mentioned, if this was two rockets the accidental possibility drops significantly. I'd also ask how close to the border did these rockets hit and are their targets of military significance on the Ukrainian side of the border. If Ukraine is putting important military equipment right next to the Poland border and these rockets both hit just on the other side of the border, then I could see a conclusion of accidental also.
But, if Russian rockets were targeting civilian locations, which is likely to be true, then I think people can make an argument that this wasn't accidental. That instead Russia is firing indiscriminately with no concern for the ramifications of their attack. Thus that attack hitting Poland would be intentional and could invoke Article 5.
Basically the difference between a hunter in the woods missing his target and hitting another hunter he didn't even know was there or a drive by shooting that sprays a bunch of bullets at a house and hits a child in their bedroom. The former was an accident, the latter was an intentional attack with an unintended victim.
I don't want WWII and I don't think it will result in that because nobody will back Russia once the Polish invade. This is the deal breaker to take out Putin.
Could have been faulty Ukrainian defense missiles
Could have been shot down/damaged russian missiles by Ukrainian air dfense
Could be an escalation by russia that they'll claim false flag or "accident".
Either way, this probably ends at article 4 w/ ukraine getting the air defense theyve been wanting and maybe more air support.
Could have been shot down/damaged russian missiles by Ukrainian air dfense
Could be an escalation by russia that they'll claim false flag or "accident".
Either way, this probably ends at article 4 w/ ukraine getting the air defense theyve been wanting and maybe more air support.
UN sanctioned no fly zone over Ukraine is in order.
Russia needs to be kicked off UN Security Council
Yep, and feel free to trample over Bularus along your way.
potentially.
Point being, it doesnt appear this will invoke article 5, but is a critical escalation that russia will feel the most backlash on leading me to believe this wasnt intentional.
Putin needs to "get the memo" that firing rockets where they CAN accidentally end up in NATO territories is gonna carry some bad bad consequences.
Not the "Susan Collins I'm very disappointed" stuff.
Accelerated support for Ukraine, and additional direct NATO assistance. Russia and Putin only understand "force", so if you're not going to do something that will impact them, the message is "The West is Weak".
Give Ukraine a couple long range missiles to finish off the Crimean bridge. That WILL get his attention.
- Sep 13, 2002
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It was weird that the same day Twitter was taking down a bunch of automatic features that suddenly tweets would no longer imbed on Rivals.
I incorrectly connected the dots, but it sounds like it was a Rivals issue.
I do usually get 2 or 3 things wrong a year, and was sitting on 2 heading into late November. No more mistakes!
I'm not sure if there are any sanctions left to place on Russia but whatever options are left should be enacted immediately. Then a very thorough investigation. I agree with @Herky T Hawk How close to the border was the farm? How close is the farm to the nearest military target, etc? If the investigation finds this wasn't an accident then unleash the Poles on them.
It was weird that the same day Twitter was taking down a bunch of automatic features that suddenly tweets would no longer imbed on Rivals.
I incorrectly connected the dots, but it sounds like it was a Rivals issue.
I do usually get 2 or 3 things wrong a year, and was sitting on 2 heading into late November. No more mistakes!
All good. I like you, always have. Just teasing.
Lobbing rockets onto civilian targets.
How are these fvckers any better than Hezbollah?
How are these fvckers any better than Hezbollah?
Someone shared a thread a few posts up - its just the sentiment. No one has even released what sort of weapon actually hit Polish soil yet, so its all conjecture.
It was weird that the same day Twitter was taking down a bunch of automatic features that suddenly tweets would no longer imbed on Rivals.
I incorrectly connected the dots, but it sounds like it was a Rivals issue.
I do usually get 2 or 3 things wrong a year, and was sitting on 2 heading into late November. No more mistakes!
- Sep 13, 2002
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Well for the record, outside of his ham-handed, frat boy with a new toy handling of the Twitter takeover, I generally admire Musk as well. He is kinda dooshy, but I don't think he's some great evil like many of my fellow liberals do.
Yeah I get that would be more appropriate but it seems like certain NATO countries such as Poland have been wanting to kill some Russians. Not sure I would take anything off the table with the situation
