"The Ukrainians held Severodonetsk until July. Liberating the city is a top priority in Kyiv. Approaching the city from the north means going past Svatove. It’s not for no reason the Ukrainian eastern command has assigned the 92nd Mechanized Brigade to that sector. If any formation can get the job done, it’s the 92nd.
The 92nd Mechanized Brigade, originally billeted just south of Kharkiv, is
one of the best-trained and best-equipped units in Ukraine’s active army. The brigade boasts two T-64 tank battalions and three battalions of infantry in new BTR-4 wheeled fighting vehicles plus attached artillery, engineers, air defenders and support troops. Each battalion fields around 40 armored vehicles and 400 troops.
The 92nd and its sister unit,
the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, were at the vanguard when the Ukrainian army launched its eastern counteroffensive in early September. The 93rd has held off repeated attacks by Russian mercenaries near the town of Bakhmut. The 92nd meanwhile is closing in on Svatove.
That the 92nd Mechanized Brigade has maintained its forward momentum is a chilling sign for the Russians. Ukrainian winters usually are wet and muddy before getting cold and icy. Historically, the mud slows military operations, so there was reason for Russian planners to hope for a respite from the Ukrainian assault.
But if the 92nd is worried about cold mud, it sure hasn’t shown it. Russian draftees, on the other hand, are miserable. “We didn’t eat or drink for three days,” a surrendering draftee says in the video from Sunday. “We lived in trenches, wet.”
Worse, the draftees, who reportedly had just 11 days of training, were getting shot at by their own regiment. “We shoot at our own guys, they shoot at us.” Friendly fire points to a breakdown in leadership and discipline—ominous developments for a regiment facing one of the best brigades in the Ukrainian army.
A Ukrainian army that doesn’t look like it’s going to take the traditional winter pause—and give the Russians any time at all to rest and reset their depleted regiments, and maybe train all those bewildered draftees."