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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

I am still confused why the supposed new offensive is planned exactly one year after the failed attempt last year when weather played such a big part?

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yep. At this point it's all or nothing. This is where the danger kicks in for me. NOT that Russia will be any more successful with this offensive than the last, but that the loss of civilian life goes far higher. I can see Russia trying to turn Kiev into Mariupul and say that if Russia can't have Ukraine no one can. Will he go as far as even dropping a nuclear weapon? Who knows. If he's about to die anyhow and see's no other option?
 
It's been too long since a Russian general has been killed. Sounds like this fellow was killed by Ukrainian saboteurs, but with the new offensive, I agree that they will start dropping like flies again.
I wonder if they went after him as part of the effort to decapitate the offensive. Fingers crossed they can be successfull again soon if this was the case.
 
yep. At this point it's all or nothing. This is where the danger kicks in for me. NOT that Russia will be any more successful with this offensive than the last, but that the loss of civilian life goes far higher. I can see Russia trying to turn Kiev into Mariupul and say that if Russia can't have Ukraine no one can. Will he go as far as even dropping a nuclear weapon? Who knows. If he's about to die anyhow and see's no other option?
For Kiev, I am more concerned with a nuke than it being "Mariupoled". I just don't see how a buildup of forces in Belarus actually makes it to Kiev, which is in a vastly different position than it was 11 months ago... I think it would be a turkey shoot. Now, this whole Donbas situation is a different story, and I have no idea how it will play out.
 
May be wrong but assume these are part of the 178 approved for shipment once refurbished.



"THE HAGUE, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The Netherlands, Denmark and Germany are buying 100 Leopard-1A5 battle tanks for Ukraine, the Dutch government said on Tuesday.

The Dutch defense ministry said in a statement the tanks would be purchased "directly from German industry".

In an interview on Dutch national broadcaster NOS, Netherlands Defense Minister Kasja Ollongen said the tanks, a slightly older model, are "definitely still useable" for fighting in Ukraine."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...eopard-1-tanks-ukraine-dutch-govt-2023-02-07/
 
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"Belarus has helped to spread propaganda and disinformation about the war, often echoing Kremlin narratives defending Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade and backing his false justifications for the conflict. Indeed, the propaganda is so pervasive and the information space so controlled inside Belarus that many Belarusians still do not realize the true scale of the war. Instead, many view it as a “special military operation,” seemingly distant from Belarus.

The Belarusian pro-democracy movement is fighting back, confident that Putin’s defeat in Ukraine will weaken Lukashenka’s ability to maintain his hegemony over his own people. By disrupting Russia’s war effort and exhausting its resources, the Belarusian pro-democracy movement is chipping away at the edifice of the Putin-Lukashenka axis and eroding the very resources Russia needs in order to prop up its dependent ally.


As Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya argues, there is a clear connection between the fate of Ukraine and the fate of Belarus. She contends that when the people of Ukraine prevail over Russia, Belarusians will see Putin’s feet of clay and will be inspired to reject the vassal status that Russia has imposed on their own country.


For this reason, Belarusian democratic activists are contributing to anti-war activities. The Cyber Partisans initiative has disrupted the Belarusian regime’s technical infrastructure, while the railway partisans movement complicated Belarusian logistical support for Russian forces during the early months of the war. Activists are also working to combat disinformation and propaganda by communicating the truth about the war to Belarusian citizens."

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...kraine/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
 
Um, is that the tanker's head that hits the ground in front of the tank 5 seconds in?
I've watched a lot of CSI, you have to believe from a frontal impact the head would pitch up and over, and rolled a bit. That seemed like it landed with a thud. A frontal armor packet that fell off?
 
For Kiev, I am more concerned with a nuke than it being "Mariupoled". I just don't see how a buildup of forces in Belarus actually makes it to Kiev, which is in a vastly different position than it was 11 months ago... I think it would be a turkey shoot. Now, this whole Donbas situation is a different story, and I have no idea how it will play out.
We saw last February and March the terrain is very inhospitable for attackers. Lots of marshes that forced the Russians up onto certain roads where they got picked off, and the offensive stalled. Plus, the Ukrainians have had a year to prepare.
 
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I wonder what "accountability", means? Reparations are not specifically mentioned, could they fall under accountability? Seems like a different word would have been used. If Ukraine has backed off of reparations in a preference for security and a return of territory that could be significant.
 
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