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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

Putin answers the question, who do you have to blow to get more artillery shells?

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As the monthslong Battle of Bakhmut wages on, military experts and analysts are increasingly concerned that Ukraine is wasting precious resources on a hopeless fight in an approach that could have devastating consequences down the line — even as Ukraine doubles down on its perilous defense of the eastern city.

After months of brutal fighting, Kyiv continues to insist that the future of the war depends on the defense of Bakhmut, where both Ukraine and Russia have suffered staggering losses in the longest and bloodiest battle of the war thus far.

Months after analysts first began predicting the fall of Bakhmut, analysts are suggesting the town could be seized by Russian forces in the coming days, especially as Ukraine's position grows increasingly dire.

Yet, despite the resources committed to the battle from both sides, Bakhmut remains a minimally-important city, strategically speaking. The one-time mining town's location would not necessarily offer Russia a wide-open pathway to claiming the rest of the region and the city itself is now nearly ruined following months of brutal fighting; but still, the battle continues, with neither side eager to give the other a decisive win.


While Ukraine has not released specific casualty numbers from the ongoing battle, estimates indicate such significant losses that government officials and analysts are increasingly counseling Ukraine to cut its losses in Bakhmut, lest it be left without the necessary resources or manpower to launch a more strategically-sound counteroffensive later this year.

Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to argue that the fight is crucial in its efforts to deplete the supply of Russian troops and ammunition in the long term.

"When the history books get written, Bakhmut is going to be a big battle because for one side or the other, it's going to look like a pretty big miscalculation," said Paul D'Anieri, a political science professor at the University of California, Riverside and the author of "
Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War."

 
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"Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops called up to fight in Ukraine have been unable to turn Moscow's new offensive into a battlefield success, war experts said in a new analysis. And throwing more soldiers into the fight most likely won't help.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial military mobilization in September 2022 to fight off a personnel shortage, and 300,000 reservists drafted. These soldiers — many of whom were sent into battle poorly equipped and with limited training — have since been committed to Russia's ongoing spring offensive, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, wrote in a Sunday assessment.

But Moscow's offensive is "likely approaching culmination" because advances along several fronts in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region have so far failed to yield more than "incremental tactical gains," the assessment said. ISW noted hostilities around the war-torn city of Bakhmut, where intense fighting has raged for months, and cited Ukrainian military officials in its analysis.

"If 300,000 Russian soldiers have been unable to give Russia a decisive offensive edge in Ukraine it is highly unlikely that the commitment of additional forces in future mobilization waves will produce a dramatically different outcome this year," ISW wrote in its assessment. "

https://www.businessinsider.com/new...lp-putin-offensive-ukraine-war-experts-2023-3
 
"Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops called up to fight in Ukraine have been unable to turn Moscow's new offensive into a battlefield success, war experts said in a new analysis. And throwing more soldiers into the fight most likely won't help.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial military mobilization in September 2022 to fight off a personnel shortage, and 300,000 reservists drafted. These soldiers — many of whom were sent into battle poorly equipped and with limited training — have since been committed to Russia's ongoing spring offensive, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, wrote in a Sunday assessment.

But Moscow's offensive is "likely approaching culmination" because advances along several fronts in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region have so far failed to yield more than "incremental tactical gains," the assessment said. ISW noted hostilities around the war-torn city of Bakhmut, where intense fighting has raged for months, and cited Ukrainian military officials in its analysis.

"If 300,000 Russian soldiers have been unable to give Russia a decisive offensive edge in Ukraine it is highly unlikely that the commitment of additional forces in future mobilization waves will produce a dramatically different outcome this year," ISW wrote in its assessment. "

https://www.businessinsider.com/new...lp-putin-offensive-ukraine-war-experts-2023-3
Yep. It’s all about equipment and war chest supplies. They have nearly emptied them and are depleted due to how much harder this has been and likely overestimating their prewar numbers that in reality were much less due to corruption and lack of maintenance. The Russia. army is in tatters. You can hypothetically throw a couple million more untrained guys into the conflict, but if they have no modern guns nor armor nor water nor food and your supporting tanks and artillery are scarce and with no functioning air support, they are just ground beef.
The 300k took the last out of the chest. Which is why Putin is groveling to China Iran and North Korea.
 
Yep. It’s all about equipment and war chest supplies. They have nearly emptied them and are depleted due to how much harder this has been and likely overestimating their prewar numbers that in reality were much less due to corruption and lack of maintenance. The Russia. army is in tatters. You can hypothetically throw a couple million more untrained guys into the conflict, but if they have no modern guns nor armor nor water nor food and your supporting tanks and artillery are scarce and with no functioning air support, they are just ground beef.
The 300k took the last out of the chest. Which is why Putin is groveling to China Iran and North Korea.
I am getting to the point where I wonder if they have effectively unlimited tanks and APCs they can bring out of mothballs or obtain through satellite states. Not that they are any good, but good enough to keep sending thousands and thousands and thousands of men to be slaughtered. It is crazy as we get excited about Ukraine getting 20 tanks from some country, but then Russia loses 20 tanks and 1,000 KIA in a single day and Russia as a whole DGAF, through fear and oppression, likely. We lost 4K in Iraq, in total, I believe. But they lose that much in a week, but somehow they keep functioning. The wheels will come off at some point, I hope.
 
Agrees to what? Feel like we are missing something there.
(This will help. They re-arranged the story.)

It’s unclear whether Putin gave Xi a heads up over his plans for the invasion. But if he did, likely Xi assumed any war would be short and limited, and would inevitably result in Russia’s victory (and would, in the process, provide a swift kick in the face for the US and its Nato allies). As the war dragged on, Xi probably saw some advantage in Russia and Nato sapping each other’s strengths.

Something seems to have changed. China’s foreign minister has unveiled a 12-point peace plan on the one-year anniversary of the invasion on 24 February. Xi’s plans for a trip to Moscow next week were then unveiled, and a call reportedly lined up with President Zelensky of Ukraine after his meeting with Putin. China now seems to want peace, and is willing to try and broker that.


What has changed? Likely Xi has concluded from Putin’s failed offensive in Bakhmut that Russia cannot win – and may now fear that a devastating defeat for Putin in Ukraine could threaten regime change in Moscow. It is extremely unlikely, but would be a nightmare scenario for Beijing as the emergence of a pro-Western administration in Moscow would leave China encircled. As such, Xi would want a peace in Ukraine which can save Putin’s skin.

Russia and China are now aligned, but no deal is possible without the agreement of Ukraine; and Ukraine still feels it can win this war. But China's 12-point peace plan did include some elements that Kyiv appreciated, including talk of "territorial integrity".


"A sticking point could well be Ukraine giving up on ambitions for Nato membership, but that might well be assuaged by US-Israel style security guarantees from senior Nato states. The problem here is that Putin invaded Ukraine not because of its Nato aspirations, but simply because he wants Ukraine.

Agreement over Nato member security guarantees for Ukraine would mean, in effect, Russia has lost Ukraine forever. Is Putin so desperate to save his own skin as to accept that? We might soon find out."

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/china-xi-putin-peace-talks-b2304828.html
 
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