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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

 
(This will help. They re-arranged the story.)

It’s unclear whether Putin gave Xi a heads up over his plans for the invasion. But if he did, likely Xi assumed any war would be short and limited, and would inevitably result in Russia’s victory (and would, in the process, provide a swift kick in the face for the US and its Nato allies). As the war dragged on, Xi probably saw some advantage in Russia and Nato sapping each other’s strengths.

Something seems to have changed. China’s foreign minister has unveiled a 12-point peace plan on the one-year anniversary of the invasion on 24 February. Xi’s plans for a trip to Moscow next week were then unveiled, and a call reportedly lined up with President Zelensky of Ukraine after his meeting with Putin. China now seems to want peace, and is willing to try and broker that.


What has changed? Likely Xi has concluded from Putin’s failed offensive in Bakhmut that Russia cannot win – and may now fear that a devastating defeat for Putin in Ukraine could threaten regime change in Moscow. It is extremely unlikely, but would be a nightmare scenario for Beijing as the emergence of a pro-Western administration in Moscow would leave China encircled. As such, Xi would want a peace in Ukraine which can save Putin’s skin.

Russia and China are now aligned, but no deal is possible without the agreement of Ukraine; and Ukraine still feels it can win this war. But China's 12-point peace plan did include some elements that Kyiv appreciated, including talk of "territorial integrity".


"A sticking point could well be Ukraine giving up on ambitions for Nato membership, but that might well be assuaged by US-Israel style security guarantees from senior Nato states. The problem here is that Putin invaded Ukraine not because of its Nato aspirations, but simply because he wants Ukraine.

Agreement over Nato member security guarantees for Ukraine would mean, in effect, Russia has lost Ukraine forever. Is Putin so desperate to save his own skin as to accept that? We might soon find out."

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/china-xi-putin-peace-talks-b2304828.html
NATO membership application should be the starting point for anything. I am not saying Ukraine should be immediately granted membership only that the process should start. This would effectively be the same as membership in regards to Russian actions.
 
As the monthslong Battle of Bakhmut wages on, military experts and analysts are increasingly concerned that Ukraine is wasting precious resources on a hopeless fight in an approach that could have devastating consequences down the line — even as Ukraine doubles down on its perilous defense of the eastern city.

After months of brutal fighting, Kyiv continues to insist that the future of the war depends on the defense of Bakhmut, where both Ukraine and Russia have suffered staggering losses in the longest and bloodiest battle of the war thus far.

Months after analysts first began predicting the fall of Bakhmut, analysts are suggesting the town could be seized by Russian forces in the coming days, especially as Ukraine's position grows increasingly dire.

Yet, despite the resources committed to the battle from both sides, Bakhmut remains a minimally-important city, strategically speaking. The one-time mining town's location would not necessarily offer Russia a wide-open pathway to claiming the rest of the region and the city itself is now nearly ruined following months of brutal fighting; but still, the battle continues, with neither side eager to give the other a decisive win.


While Ukraine has not released specific casualty numbers from the ongoing battle, estimates indicate such significant losses that government officials and analysts are increasingly counseling Ukraine to cut its losses in Bakhmut, lest it be left without the necessary resources or manpower to launch a more strategically-sound counteroffensive later this year.

Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to argue that the fight is crucial in its efforts to deplete the supply of Russian troops and ammunition in the long term.

"When the history books get written, Bakhmut is going to be a big battle because for one side or the other, it's going to look like a pretty big miscalculation," said Paul D'Anieri, a political science professor at the University of California, Riverside and the author of "
Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War."

Kenneth and Covid posts. Bins and Bakhmut post… :)
 
So much great stuff in the conversation portion. If this attack is what was reported, it’s significant for many reasons. The Ukrainians clearly are getting great Intel on stuff going on in Russian held areas. They can deliver precise, potent strikes. Russia is struggling to maintain its stock of missiles, so any losses are huge. Psychologically it’s huge for both sides. All those Russian dependents in Crimea have to be getting edgy.
 
(This will help. They re-arranged the story.)

It’s unclear whether Putin gave Xi a heads up over his plans for the invasion. But if he did, likely Xi assumed any war would be short and limited, and would inevitably result in Russia’s victory (and would, in the process, provide a swift kick in the face for the US and its Nato allies). As the war dragged on, Xi probably saw some advantage in Russia and Nato sapping each other’s strengths.

Something seems to have changed. China’s foreign minister has unveiled a 12-point peace plan on the one-year anniversary of the invasion on 24 February. Xi’s plans for a trip to Moscow next week were then unveiled, and a call reportedly lined up with President Zelensky of Ukraine after his meeting with Putin. China now seems to want peace, and is willing to try and broker that.


What has changed? Likely Xi has concluded from Putin’s failed offensive in Bakhmut that Russia cannot win – and may now fear that a devastating defeat for Putin in Ukraine could threaten regime change in Moscow. It is extremely unlikely, but would be a nightmare scenario for Beijing as the emergence of a pro-Western administration in Moscow would leave China encircled. As such, Xi would want a peace in Ukraine which can save Putin’s skin.

Russia and China are now aligned, but no deal is possible without the agreement of Ukraine; and Ukraine still feels it can win this war. But China's 12-point peace plan did include some elements that Kyiv appreciated, including talk of "territorial integrity".


"A sticking point could well be Ukraine giving up on ambitions for Nato membership, but that might well be assuaged by US-Israel style security guarantees from senior Nato states. The problem here is that Putin invaded Ukraine not because of its Nato aspirations, but simply because he wants Ukraine.

Agreement over Nato member security guarantees for Ukraine would mean, in effect, Russia has lost Ukraine forever. Is Putin so desperate to save his own skin as to accept that? We might soon find out."

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/china-xi-putin-peace-talks-b2304828.html
If Xi can convince Russia to leave the Donbas and Crimea and go back to pre-2014 borders in exchange for Ukraine not joining NATO, I think that is a deal Ukraine should consider very strongly. Especially if, as this article says, security guarantees in the event of future Russian aggression are put in place in lieu of full NATO membership.
 
Yeah, but it is getting the picc line in for future infusions. Growing pains are what they are. In the meantime, we just need to keep getting Ukraine what they need.
Yeah, but, we should have put the line in a year ago. And, I’m as supportive as anyone of what the US has accomplished in a bi-partisan nature, but we have tanks. We have tanks in storage and the Marines retired hundreds of tanks in the last year. Maybe we didn’t want to give them brand new, top of the line units, but we could have done better.
 
Yeah, but, we should have put the line in a year ago. And, I’m as supportive as anyone of what the US has accomplished in a bi-partisan nature, but we have tanks. We have tanks in storage and the Marines retired hundreds of tanks in the last year. Maybe we didn’t want to give them brand new, top of the line units, but we could have done better.
A year ago the war wasn't a month old and Ukraine was hanging on for dear life. It would have been nice though, if when we trained them on HIMARS, we also trained them on tanks...
 
If Xi can convince Russia to leave the Donbas and Crimea and go back to pre-2014 borders in exchange for Ukraine not joining NATO, I think that is a deal Ukraine should consider very strongly. Especially if, as this article says, security guarantees in the event of future Russian aggression are put in place in lieu of full NATO membership.
I think it would be hard for Putin to give him Crimea. Russia has this centuries long obsession with Crimea and how they are the inheritors of Greek culture.

 
I think it would be hard for Putin to give him Crimea. Russia has this centuries long obsession with Crimea and how they are the inheritors of Greek culture.

Agreed. Which is why I don't think a Chinese-brokered peace deal will come to fruition. I think Ukraine believes they can recover ALL their territory militarily as long as it keeps getting infused with western weapons. They will have little incentive to agree to a solution that doesn't include ALL pre-2014 territory including Crimea included.

But if offered, they might very well accept, even if it means no NATO. At least I think it would be wise for them to do so -- probably the best way to stop the killing soonest.
 
Agreed. Which is why I don't think a Chinese-brokered peace deal will come to fruition. I think Ukraine believes they can recover ALL their territory militarily as long as it keeps getting infused with western weapons. They will have little incentive to agree to a solution that doesn't include ALL pre-2014 territory including Crimea included.

But if offered, they might very well accept, even if it means no NATO. At least I think it would be wise for them to do so -- probably the best way to stop the killing soonest.
What I can see is no NATO, but an alliance of some sort, and Russia leases Sevastopol and a big air base in Crimea. For that Putin gets to die an old man in Russia, and avoid war crimes.
 
Agreed. Which is why I don't think a Chinese-brokered peace deal will come to fruition. I think Ukraine believes they can recover ALL their territory militarily as long as it keeps getting infused with western weapons. They will have little incentive to agree to a solution that doesn't include ALL pre-2014 territory including Crimea included.

But if offered, they might very well accept, even if it means no NATO. At least I think it would be wise for them to do so -- probably the best way to stop the killing soonest.
I think a lot depends on this summer in regards to what Ukraine is willing to settle for...

If Ukraine makes significant gains they'll want the whole enchilada...if they're stymied, pressure will mount to negotiate.
 
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I think it would be hard for Putin to give him Crimea. Russia has this centuries long obsession with Crimea and how they are the inheritors of Greek culture.

Typically the best negotiations are ones where both sides leave angry and disappointed. I'd support giving Putin Crimea and no NATO for Ukraine, in exchange for giving Ukraine back its boarders. Obviously I'm not Ukrainian, those guys might want to fight to the bitter end.
 
I think a lot depends on this summer in regards to what Ukraine is willing to settle for...

If Ukraine makes significant gains they'll want the whole enchilada...if they're stymied, pressure will mount to negotiate.
I guess I don't see how Crimea does not fall back into Ukrainian hands, given the logistics of Russia keeping it supplied once Ukraine controls the left bank. Eastern Ukraine will be a tougher fight, given it's border with Russia proper.
 
I guess I don't see how Crimea does not fall back into Ukrainian hands, given the logistics of Russia keeping it supplied once Ukraine controls the left bank. Eastern Ukraine will be a tougher fight, given it's border with Russia proper.
I think Russia covets Crimea above all else and will shift forces accordingly to protect it. It'll be a tough nut...
 
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I get Crimea's naval importance, but I thought the main point of Russia's invasion was to claim like a trillion dollars worth of mineral deposits in eastern Ukraine.
There is that ;)

Just think historically Crimea has a revered place in the Russian pysche...but maybe mineral deposits Trump that :)
 
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I guess I don't see how Crimea does not fall back into Ukrainian hands, given the logistics of Russia keeping it supplied once Ukraine controls the left bank. Eastern Ukraine will be a tougher fight, given it's border with Russia proper.
Agreed. Probably why Russia gave Crimea to Ukraine in the first place.
 
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A year ago the war wasn't a month old and Ukraine was hanging on for dear life. It would have been nice though, if when we trained them on HIMARS, we also trained them on tanks...
I remember a year ago I would go to bed each night praying that the Russians wouldn’t take Kiev, and in the morning celebrate when Ukraine had held them back another day. That seemed to go on for quite a while.
 
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