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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...



NBC recently published an article titled: "U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say."

Once again, we find ourselves discussing weak politicians who are looking for a solution by appeasing the aggressor.

If the U.S. and Europe were to pressure Ukraine into making territorial concessions (which could be highly unpopular within Ukraine, placing immense political pressure on the President), it might only strengthen Putin's belief in the West's weakness.

In 2014, the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas was met with a weak response, further encouraging Putin to the events in 2022.

Unfortunately, there seem to be no diplomatic solutions that can lead to a positive outcome. It's difficult to envision a scenario where peace can be achieved in Europe if Putin's demands are met.

Even if Russia or Putin were to provide security guarantees, their past actions, such as violating the Budapest Memorandum and "security guarantees" to Prigozhin, make these assurances meaningless.

It's uncertain how any "agreement" could ensure Ukraine's safety. Russia will spend the coming years strengthening its military, while Western support for Ukraine, already dwindling during wartime, could be even scarcer during peacetime.

This can only encourage the known pattern:

- Invade a country.
- Use the threat of nuclear escalation to pressure the West.
- Wear down the West until they concede.
- Repeat.

To prevent long-term instability in Europe, sporadic conflicts and even another large-scale war between Ukraine and Russia, the focus should start shifting from pressuring Ukraine to concede territories into providing enough support to Ukraine in order to win. This support could enable Ukraine to inflict sufficient damage on Russia, compelling them to withdraw, as seen in cases like Kherson and Kharkiv.

Anything else is a search for easy but wrong decisions, political cuckoldism and decadence.
I am for upping funding and beating Russia, but if they called a stalemate in return for immediate entry to NATO, along with every country who wants to be in NATO, that would at least landlock Russia due to article 5. But, let’s exhaust viable military options first.
 
Take it for what it’s worth, but I have a fraternity buddy decently high with the DoD and he told me a few months ago the already approved funding for Ukraine had a lot of non military fluff built in case future funding got cut so they could be used as back up funding. Also we will be able to give old weapons to NATO Allies that can then share. There are a ton of things they can do no authorization from Congress. Basically, they will continue to make sure Ukraine has weapons to kill orcs. Russia is grinding their army to dust and will not soon recover and we will not let them off the ropes. The proof of this is how old the weapons they use are and depending on North Korea and Iran for weapons. Think how incredible that is for a second.
 
Source: Zelenskyy on the Meet the Press programme on American television channel NBC News

Quote: "I have a lot of power, but even feeling strong, and I have a lot of energy, it doesn't mean that we want to fight all our lives because the price is high, like I said. Because war takes the best of us, the best heroes, the best men, women, children. That's it.

But we are not ready to give our freedom to this f---ing terrorist Putin. That’s it. That's why we are fighting."
 
Hopefully not posted, but M1150 assault breachers have quietly shown up in Ukraine. Built on the M1A1 chassis they are advanced mine and obstacle clearing vehicles. They have not been specifically listed on transfer reports, and probably have been labeled as miscellaneous mine clearing equipment.
 
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Tensions grow in Kyiv over status of war, as Zelensky insists conflict with Russia is not at a ‘stalemate’​


Apparent divisions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his military command are becoming increasingly public, after a bitter back-and-forth over the state of play in the war with Russia.

Igor Zhovka, the deputy head of Zelensky’s office, on Saturday condemned an assessment by Ukraine’s military chief that the war with Russia is at a “stalemate,” deepening a feud in Kyiv which has heightened nerves about Western support for the conflict.

He was responding to an interview with military chief Valery Zaluzhny, who told The Economist on Wednesday that “we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate” and “there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough” in the war.

Zhovka told Ukrainian television that Zaluzhny’s interview will have been “carefully read, noted down and conclusions drawn” by the Russians. He said he had received calls from counterparts in partner countries “in a panic” asking if the war really is at a stalemate, as described by Zaluzhny.

“Is this the effect we wanted to achieve with this article?” Zhovka said.

“Perhaps this is a very deep strategic plan, and we will achieve some success in this way. But to be honest, I am very surprised,” Zhovka added.

The tensions come at a pivotal moment in the war, with Kyiv’s slow-moving counter-offensive and the outbreak of violence in the Middle East sparking fears that Western financial and military aid could begin to flag.

Zelensky also disagreed with Zaluzhnyi’s assessment during a press conference with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday, but admitted that people are “tired” after 18 months of war in the country.

“People are tired. Everyone is tired. There are different opinions […] Everyone is human, regardless of status… But this is not a stalemate. I emphasize this once again. We have already talked about this. This is not some kind of news,” Zelensky said.

“We all need to get together and resolve the issues, work more with our partners on air defense, unblock the skies, and enable our guys to take offensive actions. This is what we need to think about. Only about this. Not about where we will be tomorrow. But now,” Zelensky said.

Zaluzhny also laid out in his interview his vision for what Ukraine needs to do and the kind of support needed from partners to break the deadlock.

But his overall characterization of the conflict raised eyebrows in Ukraine and made international headlines. It came as a separate interview, given by Zelensky to TIME, painted the Ukrainian president as an increasingly isolated figure.

“Nobody believes in our victory like I do. Nobody,” Zelensky told TIME, adding that instilling those beliefs in Ukraine’s allies “takes all your power, your energy.”

“Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave. You see it in the United States, in Europe,” Zelensky was quoted as saying.

He admitted that the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas has diverted attention from Ukraine’s fight against Russia, complicating efforts to maintain international enthusiasm for his country’s fight.

“Of course we lose out from the events in the Middle East. People are dying, and the world’s help is needed there to save lives,” Zelensky said.

He added to those comments during von der Leyen’s Saturday trip to Kyiv.

“It is obvious the war in the Middle East, this conflict takes away the focus. I think it is one of the goals of the Russian Federation… It’s a fact. We see the outcomes,” Zelensky said.

The Ukrainian leader had previously expressed solidarity with Israel in the wake of the October 7 Hamas attacks, recommending that world leaders “go to Israel” and offer support to the “people who have been under terrorist attacks.”

Ukraine is meanwhile continuing with a difficult counter-offensive against Russian forces in the south and east.

Kyiv has been able to land more successful blows through the air, and said its air force carried out successful airstrikes on a shipyard in the eastern port city of Kerch in the Russian occupied Crimean peninsula on Saturday.

Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Mykola Oleschuk congratulated pilots involved in the strikes in a post on Telegram. A Russian appointed official said a shipyard was targeted but air defenses shot down the missiles. CNN cannot independently verify either claim.

The Crimean Bridge, also known as the Kerch Bridge, was temporarily shut down for traffic for two hours on Saturday. Russian authorities did not provide a reason for the road closure on the vital artery that connects mainland Russia to the occupied peninsula.


 
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has invited former President Trump to his country’s war zone, saying the former president “can’t manage this war.”

Zelensky, who joined NBC “Meet the Press” host Kristen Welker, responded to Trump’s claims that he could end the war with Russia in 24 hours.

“Former President Trump said that about 24 hours, that he can manage it and finish the war,” Zelensky said during the interview that airs Sunday. “For me, what can I say? So he’s very welcome as well.”

President Biden was here, and I think he understood some details which you can understand only being here,” Zelensky continued. “So I invite President Trump. If he can come here, I will need 24 minutes.”

In March, the former president said he could “solve” the war in Ukraine in one day if he were reelected, noting that the negotiation process would be “very easy.”

The Ukrainian president said he would need just 24 minutes instead of 24 hours to explain to Trump that he can’t end the war as easily as he thinks he could.

Zelensky added that peace can’t be negotiated with Russian President Vladimir Putin, even if Trump were to try.

“He can’t bring peace because of Putin,” he said. “If he’s not trying and if he’s not ready to give our territory to this terrible man, to Putin, if you are not ready to give it, if you are not ready to give our independence, he can’t manage it.”

 
They have done so much already I wonder if they are afraid to supply these because they may need to use them themselves. The UK and France have already sent similar weapons.

 
Zelensky added that peace can’t be negotiated with Russian President Vladimir Putin, even if Trump were to try.

“He can’t bring peace because of Putin,” he said. “If he’s not trying and if he’s not ready to give our territory to this terrible man, to Putin, if you are not ready to give it, if you are not ready to give our independence, he can’t manage it.”
 
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  • The Ukrainian army has confirmed soldiers from its 128th Mountain Assault Brigade were killed in a Russian missile strike during what media described as a medal awarding ceremony. A Ukrainian soldier said on social media that 22 people were killed and criticised commanders for having held the event in Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhzhia region. Local media reported 20 deaths – figures that could not be independently verified.
  • “This is a tragedy that could have been avoided,” the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said of the soldiers’ deaths. “A criminal investigation has been registered into the tragedy. The main thing is to establish the full truth about what happened and to prevent this from happening again.”
  • Ukrainian cruise missiles damaged a warship docked at the occupied Crimean peninsula, Russia admitted on Sunday, a day after Ukraine announced the strike. Ukraine launched 15 cruise missiles at the BE Butoma shipyard based in the east coast city of Kerch on Saturday, with air defences shooting down 13, Russia’s defence ministry said. Ukrainian attacks have progressively been making Crimea untenable for Russia’s Black Sea fleet to use. Ukraine said the damaged warship was one of Russia’s most advanced, able to fire Kalibr cruise missiles. Online observers named the ship as the Askold.
  • Zelenskiy said the cost of letting Russia win the war would be further conflict involving ground troops from Nato countries, as he urged US lawmakers on NBC’s Meet the Press to increase war funding. Zelenskiy also said he was “not ready” for talks with Russia unless its invading troops withdraw. The United States “know I am not ready to speak with the terrorists, because their word is nothing”, he said. “They have to go out from our territory, only after that the world can switch on diplomacy.”
  • Zelenskiy also urged Donald Trump to visit Ukraine, where he said it would take minutes to show the war-sceptic former US president his errors about the conflict.
  • Tensions simmered between the civilian and military wings of Ukraine’s leadership as the president’s office publicly rebuked top military commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi for his comments that the war was at a stalemate. The office of Zelenskiy said Zaluzhnyi’s words were helpful to Russia and stirred panic.
  • Zelenskiy said the war in Gaza was distracting focus from Ukraine’s war against Russia as humanitarian, diplomatic and media attention shifts to the Middle East.
  • Russian casualties climbed to more than 305,000 dead or injured, Ukraine said, with the US estimating 120,000 Russian deaths and 180,000 injured in the invasion.
  • Ukraine’s Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun said Russian forces were following “cannon fodder” tactics, referring to fighting in the Tavria region.
  • Fake Russian propaganda linking the Gaza and Ukraine wars is spreading online, with a fabricated Israeli promotional video claiming to show Ukrainians fighting in Israel exposed by the news organisation Ukrinform.
  • Russia and Saudi Arabia confirmed they would be restricting the supply of crude oil until the end of this year, in efforts to raise the price of oil worldwide.
  • The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said on Saturday that Ukraine had “made excellent progress” towards EU accession, as she visited Kyiv and affirmed EU support for Ukraine “for as long as it takes”.

 
“He can’t bring peace because of Putin,” he said. “If he’s not trying and if he’s not ready to give our territory to this terrible man, to Putin, if you are not ready to give it, if you are not ready to give our independence, he can’t manage it.”
The Russians are going to seek formal acknowledgment of Crimea. Failure to cut the land bridge was a strategic failure for Ukraine. Not saying it’s their fault they’re ill-equipped to accomplish the task before them.

I think our armed forces would suffer casualties we haven’t seen before trying to do what they’re doing (assaulting fortifications), but I think our air power would be as decisive as it’s been for the last 80 years wherever we focus it on the battlefield.
 
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Counterbattery fire doesn't require getting a drone over the target.
There are counterbattery radars trying to track the trajectory of shells and feed targeting data based on those calculations.
Additional spotting from drones is great, but not a requirement.
 
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The Russians are going to seek formal acknowledgment of Crimea. Failure to cut the land bridge was a strategic failure for Ukraine. Not saying it’s their fault they’re ill-equipped to accomplish the task before them.

I think our armed forces would suffer casualties we haven’t seen before trying to do what they’re doing (assaulting fortifications), but I think our air power would be as decisive as it’s been for the last 80 years wherever we focus it on the battlefield.
I think the US would have overwhelming air superiority and the Russians would have no ability to resupply or reinforce front line units.

It’d be a bloodbath for the Russians
 
I think the US would have overwhelming air superiority and the Russians would have no ability to resupply or reinforce front line units.

It’d be a bloodbath for the Russians
IDF has air supremacy over Gaza in a way we wouldn’t enjoy in Ukraine, and they don’t seem to have an answer for drones.
As loathsome as consultant speak can be, Ukraine has dawned a new paradigm for conventional war. I don’t think we’d get to operate with the near impunity we’ve enjoyed the last 30 years relative to our foes.
 
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IDF has air supremacy over Gaza in a way we wouldn’t enjoy in Ukraine, and they don’t seem to have an answer for drones.
As loathsome as consultant speak can be, Ukraine has dawned a new paradigm for conventional war. I don’t think we’d get to operate with the near impunity we’ve enjoyed the last 30 years relative to our foes.
I agree but...

Couple major things in regard to the Ukraine war.

1) Russia never would have been able to build those multiple lines of fortifications...they'd be under relentless attack from aircraft, drones and guided missiles/artillery.

2) The US reach with cruise missiles ect would extend far beyond the battlefield.
 
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