This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
- Start date
Interesting story about Bulgaria moving lots of its stockpiles of Soviet era weaponry to Ukraine. Possibly 1/3rd of the small arms used by Ukraine is coming from Bulgaria. A marked shift from its former government that had some Russian fluffers in it. A critical development as appeasers in the US grow in numbers.
kyivindependent.com
Bulgaria's Soviet stockpiles and large defense industry may be key to Ukraine's success
Bulgaria has had to walk a fine line, trying to covertly support Ukraine without provoking Russia. The Balkan state has been historically influenced by Moscow. Opinions on Ukraine are split among its 6.7 million people, many of whom buy into Kremlin propaganda. The new coalition government...
Bad guys but wanted to mention these Russian weapons have a distinct sparkle trail.
"The invaders decided that they would be safe in a deep hole. However, the kamikaze drone held a different opinion"
"Last night, an unidentified drone attacked Moscow"
"Kyiv: Repeated drone attacks in Moscow region is showing Putin hat Russia is less safe. The Kremlin, Moscow, should bring Russian soldiers home. To protect Rusia from UAV. The Russians are not welcome in the Ukrainian land Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Donetsk, Crimea, Kherson, etc"
"Kyiv: Repeated drone attacks in Moscow region is showing Putin hat Russia is less safe. The Kremlin, Moscow, should bring Russian soldiers home. To protect Rusia from UAV. The Russians are not welcome in the Ukrainian land Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Donetsk, Crimea, Kherson, etc"
As the war grinds on, Ukraine needs more troops. Not everyone is ready to enlist
CNN —On the global stage, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been consistently on message: In visits to Washington and other Western capitals, he has focused on keeping Kyiv supplied with more advanced arms, ammunition and financing.
At home, however, he faces a human resources problem. The war is approaching the end of its second year, and Ukraine’s military needs more manpower to sustain a bloody war of attrition against Russia, a country with more than three times the population of Ukraine.
In a recent essay, Ukraine’s top military commander, Valery Zaluzhny acknowledged that training and recruiting troops was becoming a serious challenge.
The prolonged nature of the war, limited opportunities for the rotation of soldiers on the line of contact, gaps in legislation that seem to legally evade mobilization, significantly reduce the motivation of citizens to serve with the military,” he said.
The essay acknowledged a bleak reality: Ukraine needs more people in uniform, and it needs them now.
So, how serious is Ukraine’s mobilization challenge? The issue is clouded, in part, by official secrecy. Kyiv does not publicly disclose its manpower targets; nor does it reveal the total number of dead and wounded, although casualties on both sides since February 2022 are estimated to number in the hundreds of thousands.
Ukraine fills its ranks with volunteers but also has a system of conscription that allows the state to draft men of military age.
After Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine imposed martial law, under which all males between the ages of 18 and 60 were considered liable for military service and could be mobilized unless they were eligible for a deferment. In 2023, the rules of military registration were updated to include women. But the measures stopped short of full conscription.
Martial law introduced draconian travel restrictions. Men between 18 and 60 are generally barred from exiting the country, although there are a wide range of exemptions, covering everything from single parents of young children to professional athletes.
While it is difficult to get an exact portrait of how far Ukrainians are responding to the call to serve in the military, officials have acknowledged publicly that evading military service and enforcing mobilization rules are an issue.
At a briefing on November 9, State Border Service of Ukraine spokesperson Andriy Demchenko said that over the last 10 months, 43,000 citizens of Ukraine were refused exit at the border.
“The reasons were different, but mostly because they did not qualify,” he said.
The war is sometimes simplified as an industrial contest: Ukraine’s Western backers are racing to produce ammunition for Kyiv, as Moscow ramps up domestic production of artillery shells and seeks fresh supplies from North Korea. But it’s also a recruitment contest against Russia.
Mobilization is a matter of survival for Ukraine. A long-awaited counteroffensive across a broad front has failed to yield any major breakthroughs on the battlefield, and Western support is at risk of wavering, especially as events in Israel and Gaza in the last month divert attention from the prolonged conflict in Europe.
CNN spoke with several individuals of fighting age to get snapshots of their motivations to fight – or to avoid enlistment.
Interviews are condensed and edited for length and clarity. Some of those interviewed did not want to give their full names.
“If the war continues… as it is today, there is no way to avoid conscription.”
Maj. Viktor Kysil serves with the “Khartiia” brigade. Until recently, he was involved in recruiting for his unit.All those who wanted to serve voluntarily have already served somewhere. There are still people who do not want to serve of their own free will. If a person hasn’t come under the attention of the military enlistment office by 16-18 months into the war, then he or she obviously hopes that he or she won’t be drafted into the army for the next 18 months.
From what I can see, there is a shortage of military personnel, sometimes a critical shortage. Besides, a variety of military positions require different skills - some require physical training, some require intellectual skills. Everybody has different skills.
As a military man, I was served with a (draft) summons in the street several times. I have encountered people who were recruited online. When a person learns that he or she has a chance to go to the war zone, the desire to earn (a monthly army salary of) UAH 20-30,000 ($550-$830 per month) or even UAH 100,000 ($2,750) immediately disappears.
If the war continues with the same intensity as it is today, there is no way to avoid conscription.
“Civilians have become too relaxed.”
Mark Holovei, 29, works as a civilian volunteer supporting the military. He is willing to be mobilized.Read the rest here….
As the war grinds on, Ukraine needs more troops. Not everyone is ready to enlist | CNN
On the global stage, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been consistently on message: In visits to Washington and other Western capitals, he has focused on keeping Kyiv supplied with more advanced arms, ammunition and financing.
AP article about a Yale study tracking Ukrainian children moved to Belarus and Russia.
Another reason some of the people who want to cut aid to Ukraine need to rethink their position.
apnews.com
Another reason some of the people who want to cut aid to Ukraine need to rethink their position.
More than 2,400 Ukrainian children taken to Belarus, a Yale study finds
More than 2,400 Ukrainian children aged 6-17 have been taken to Belarus from four regions of Ukraine that are partially occupied by Russian forces, a study by Yale University has found.
apnews.com
You can see how the monetary costs are driven up in this war when the good guys have to use one drone to kill one orc.
Unfortunately, there probably is not another option when you have to eliminate as many as of the enemy as possible.
Unfortunately, there probably is not another option when you have to eliminate as many as of the enemy as possible.
The war even effects women's rights in Russia.
By Bloomberg News
November 17, 2023 at 2:59 AM EST
The west’s sanctions on Russian oil exports are failing to deprive the Kremlin of revenue to fund its war in Ukraine, meaning the measures are not succeeding in one of their principal objectives.
Whether in dollars or rubles, net or gross, Russian Finance Ministry data show that the money flooding into government coffers has been grinding higher for months now.
The figures beg the question as to whether Group of Seven nations, especially the US and Europe, will need to take more aggressive action if they really want to deprive Moscow of petrodollars.
Their key tool for curbing that funding was a price cap that prevented western firms from helping in the transport of Russian oil if it cost more than $60 a barrel. But one study this week showed that almost every seaborne cargo breached the threshold last month.
Gross revenues from three main tax sources of petrodollars nearly doubled between April and October, coming to more than $13 billion last month, Bloomberg calculations based on the Finance Ministry’s data show. The October earnings exceeded those for any single month in 2021, before the invasion of Ukraine caused unprecedented volatility to the nation’s exports.
Source: Bloomberg calculations based on monthly data from the Russian Finance Ministry
Note: Net fiscal revenues are derived by deducting all state payouts to the oil industry from the gross oil revenues; revenues from profit-based tax, which lead to regular spikes in total earnings, have been averaged out
Even after deducting sizable subsidy payments to the country’s oil refining industry, which jumped to $2 billion - $3 billion in August and September, a surge is clear. In October, the Russian refiners didn’t receive any subsidies for domestic fuel supplies, which contributed to a substantial jump in Russia’s net oil earnings for the month.
A spokesperson for the US Treasury Department said that while the first phase of the price cap focused on reducing the amount of revenue Russia gains from its oil sales, the second phase of the measure will focus on increasing the costs Russia has to pay to keep its fleet of tankers running.
To do that, the department has begun to sanction shipping companies and vessels it says have transported oil sold above the cap and started to look for ways to increase the costs to Russia for using its shadow fleet.
While the initial blow led to a $25-billion deficit in the Russian budget at the start of the year, the effects have faded dramatically.
To counteract the west’s restrictions, Russia pivoted away from western shipping and services. It has done so by using a vast shadow fleet of tankers that have unclear ownership and insurance status.
Privately, European Union officials acknowledge that the price cap isn’t working well. Back in September, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted the approach was losing its sting.
That dictates how easily the country can fund its budgetary expenses, including massive military spending because of the war with Ukraine, and swelling social obligations before presidential elections in March. And there, the news is no better for the west.
The three main levies are an oil output tax, an export duty on crude and fuels, and a profit-based tax that partly replaced a production tax for some fields. Revenue from those rose to 1.2 trillion rubles in October, the highest since April 2022. It also exceeded any single month in 2021.
Source: Bloomberg calculations based on monthly data from the Russian Finance Ministry
Note: Net fiscal revenues are derived by deducting all state payouts to the oil industry from the gross oil revenues; revenues from profit-based tax, which lead to regular spikes in total earnings, have been averaged out
The increase in Russia’s revenues comes as the price of the nation’s barrels has been growing both in absolute terms and relative to the international Brent benchmark. A sharp depreciation of the ruble in the recent months also helped boost revenues from oil sales denominated in foreign currencies.
The G-7’s price cap prohibited western firms from providing shipping, insurance and other services for Russian oil sold above $60 a barrel. In early 2022, the discount of the nation’s crude to Brent widened to a historic high of more than $34 per barrel, according to data from Russia’s Finance Ministry.
As part of its pivot toward trying to boost Russia’s costs, the US Treasury recently sanctioned five tankers for breaching the price cap. It has also written to ship-management companies asking them for information regarding about 100 tankers that moved Russian oil. It’s not clear if the measures will do anything to dim the shadow-fleet trade in oil.
The European Union is also trying to make it harder for tankers that are beneficially owned by Europeans to be sold into the shadow fleet. That could ensnare parts of the Greek fleet, even if large numbers of vessels have already switched over.
Almost 30% of Russian oil shipments had some sort of involvement of a G-7 entity in October, according to data compiled the KSE Institute, which is part of a Ukrainian organization that’s pushing for stiffer sanctions on Moscow.
According to a detailed analysis of exports, almost all Russian seaborne cargoes were bought above the cap in October, the institute said.
There are still pressures on Russia too.
In a move to cut the budget expenditure and keep more petrodollars, the Russian government tried to halve its subsidy payments to refineries but faced pushback from the industry.
Full-size payouts have been reinstated from October and the refiners will start receiving them from November, which will continue to put pressure on Russia’s net oil revenues, affecting the Kremlin’s financial flexibility.
The US and its allies also argue that their sanctions have had a broader impact on Russia.
The Kremlin spent billions of dollars on its fleet, insurance and the overall “alternative ecosystem to sell oil without G7 involvement,” according to a US Treasury statement last month. “The costs associated with this avoidance keep stacking up,” the Treasury’s Eric Van Nostrand said.
So far, the G-7 has no plans to change the cap, with the European Union considering stricter monitoring of the existing threshold as the alliance is working on the 12th package of sanctions against Russia.
November 17, 2023 at 2:59 AM EST
The west’s sanctions on Russian oil exports are failing to deprive the Kremlin of revenue to fund its war in Ukraine, meaning the measures are not succeeding in one of their principal objectives.
Whether in dollars or rubles, net or gross, Russian Finance Ministry data show that the money flooding into government coffers has been grinding higher for months now.
The figures beg the question as to whether Group of Seven nations, especially the US and Europe, will need to take more aggressive action if they really want to deprive Moscow of petrodollars.
Their key tool for curbing that funding was a price cap that prevented western firms from helping in the transport of Russian oil if it cost more than $60 a barrel. But one study this week showed that almost every seaborne cargo breached the threshold last month.
Gross revenues from three main tax sources of petrodollars nearly doubled between April and October, coming to more than $13 billion last month, Bloomberg calculations based on the Finance Ministry’s data show. The October earnings exceeded those for any single month in 2021, before the invasion of Ukraine caused unprecedented volatility to the nation’s exports.
Russia Oil Revenues Rebound
Higher crude prices are driving Russia's fiscal oil revenues upSource: Bloomberg calculations based on monthly data from the Russian Finance Ministry
Note: Net fiscal revenues are derived by deducting all state payouts to the oil industry from the gross oil revenues; revenues from profit-based tax, which lead to regular spikes in total earnings, have been averaged out
Even after deducting sizable subsidy payments to the country’s oil refining industry, which jumped to $2 billion - $3 billion in August and September, a surge is clear. In October, the Russian refiners didn’t receive any subsidies for domestic fuel supplies, which contributed to a substantial jump in Russia’s net oil earnings for the month.
A spokesperson for the US Treasury Department said that while the first phase of the price cap focused on reducing the amount of revenue Russia gains from its oil sales, the second phase of the measure will focus on increasing the costs Russia has to pay to keep its fleet of tankers running.
To do that, the department has begun to sanction shipping companies and vessels it says have transported oil sold above the cap and started to look for ways to increase the costs to Russia for using its shadow fleet.
Initial Blow
In December last year, the European Union all but halted seaborne purchases of Russian oil and simultaneously joined others in the G-7 in imposing a price cap on the country’s exports.While the initial blow led to a $25-billion deficit in the Russian budget at the start of the year, the effects have faded dramatically.
To counteract the west’s restrictions, Russia pivoted away from western shipping and services. It has done so by using a vast shadow fleet of tankers that have unclear ownership and insurance status.
Privately, European Union officials acknowledge that the price cap isn’t working well. Back in September, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted the approach was losing its sting.
Ruble Revenue
For the Russian government, what matters is revenue and expenditure in ruble terms.That dictates how easily the country can fund its budgetary expenses, including massive military spending because of the war with Ukraine, and swelling social obligations before presidential elections in March. And there, the news is no better for the west.
The three main levies are an oil output tax, an export duty on crude and fuels, and a profit-based tax that partly replaced a production tax for some fields. Revenue from those rose to 1.2 trillion rubles in October, the highest since April 2022. It also exceeded any single month in 2021.
Oil Revenues in Rubles Also on the Rise
Weaker Russian currency has provided an extra support to the fiscal revenuesSource: Bloomberg calculations based on monthly data from the Russian Finance Ministry
Note: Net fiscal revenues are derived by deducting all state payouts to the oil industry from the gross oil revenues; revenues from profit-based tax, which lead to regular spikes in total earnings, have been averaged out
The increase in Russia’s revenues comes as the price of the nation’s barrels has been growing both in absolute terms and relative to the international Brent benchmark. A sharp depreciation of the ruble in the recent months also helped boost revenues from oil sales denominated in foreign currencies.
The G-7’s price cap prohibited western firms from providing shipping, insurance and other services for Russian oil sold above $60 a barrel. In early 2022, the discount of the nation’s crude to Brent widened to a historic high of more than $34 per barrel, according to data from Russia’s Finance Ministry.
Diminishing Discount
As customers — particularly in China and India — became accustomed to using the shadow fleet, the discounts between Russia’s flagship grade Urals and international prices narrowed. It is now closer to $10 a barrel, with Russia expecting the gap to narrow further by about $5.As part of its pivot toward trying to boost Russia’s costs, the US Treasury recently sanctioned five tankers for breaching the price cap. It has also written to ship-management companies asking them for information regarding about 100 tankers that moved Russian oil. It’s not clear if the measures will do anything to dim the shadow-fleet trade in oil.
The European Union is also trying to make it harder for tankers that are beneficially owned by Europeans to be sold into the shadow fleet. That could ensnare parts of the Greek fleet, even if large numbers of vessels have already switched over.
Almost 30% of Russian oil shipments had some sort of involvement of a G-7 entity in October, according to data compiled the KSE Institute, which is part of a Ukrainian organization that’s pushing for stiffer sanctions on Moscow.
According to a detailed analysis of exports, almost all Russian seaborne cargoes were bought above the cap in October, the institute said.
There are still pressures on Russia too.
In a move to cut the budget expenditure and keep more petrodollars, the Russian government tried to halve its subsidy payments to refineries but faced pushback from the industry.
Full-size payouts have been reinstated from October and the refiners will start receiving them from November, which will continue to put pressure on Russia’s net oil revenues, affecting the Kremlin’s financial flexibility.
The US and its allies also argue that their sanctions have had a broader impact on Russia.
The Kremlin spent billions of dollars on its fleet, insurance and the overall “alternative ecosystem to sell oil without G7 involvement,” according to a US Treasury statement last month. “The costs associated with this avoidance keep stacking up,” the Treasury’s Eric Van Nostrand said.
So far, the G-7 has no plans to change the cap, with the European Union considering stricter monitoring of the existing threshold as the alliance is working on the 12th package of sanctions against Russia.
