This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
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Europeans skeptical Ukraine will win war, polling shows
Most EU countries surveyed also opposed increasing their defense spending for Ukraine.
While the majority of Ukrainians believe Kyiv will prevail in its war with invading Russian forces, Europeans are more skeptical, a new study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) shows.
The survey, published on Wednesday — days out from the July 9-11 NATO summit in Washington — mapped attitudes to the conflict in Ukraine and 14 EU countries. The fieldwork was undertaken in May.
It found that Europeans tend to believe that Ukraine won't defeat Russia on the battlefield, with roughly a third to half of those surveyed believing the war will end in a negotiated settlement, and up to 31 percent (Greece) seeing a Russian victory as most likely. Of the EU countries surveyed, only in Estonia was a Ukraine victory the prevailing view (38 percent).
On the contrary, the majority of Ukrainians (58 percent) remain confident their troops can win, and that they can continue to count on the support of their international allies. Only 1 percent of Ukrainians believe Russia will win the war, while 30 percent see a negotiated settlement as the most likely outcome.
The study also found considerable differences of opinion among EU countries on how to support the defense of Ukraine and on Kyiv’s EU and NATO accession.
NATO leaders are “unlikely to find domestic support for troop deployments" among member country populations, the findings revealed (country results ranged from 4 percent to 22 percent in favor).
On defense spending, the data showed that most countries are against increasing their contributions — the exceptions being Poland (where 53 percent support increasing defense spending), Estonia (45 percent), Sweden (41 percent) and Germany (40 percent).
However, most Europeans still support being involved in the war in other ways — such as by providing technical assistance and by increasing the supply of weapons and ammunition.
Only in Bulgaria, Greece and Italy does the majority of the population — 63 percent, 54 percent and 53 percent, respectively — think increasing the supply of ammunition and weapons to Ukraine is a “bad idea."
Europeans are also divided on the benefits of admitting Ukraine to the EU. The most supportive countries are Portugal, Estonia, Sweden, Spain and Poland, while the most skeptical are Germany, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and France.
Among Ukrainians, almost two-thirds (64 percent) believe that EU membership is as crucial as NATO membership to their country’s future.
Ukraine applied for membership in the bloc in February 2022 and was granted EU candidate status in June the same year. About a week ago, on June 25, the EU opened formal accession talks with both Ukraine and Moldova.
Europeans skeptical Ukraine will win war, polling shows
Most EU countries surveyed also opposed increasing their defense spending for Ukraine.
www.politico.eu
Define “win”. If win means pre 2014 boundaries it’s never going to happen without the United States Armed Forces being involved. Of course that means WW3 if the U.S. starts hitting Russian troops.Europeans skeptical Ukraine will win war, polling shows
Most EU countries surveyed also opposed increasing their defense spending for Ukraine.
While the majority of Ukrainians believe Kyiv will prevail in its war with invading Russian forces, Europeans are more skeptical, a new study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) shows.
The survey, published on Wednesday — days out from the July 9-11 NATO summit in Washington — mapped attitudes to the conflict in Ukraine and 14 EU countries. The fieldwork was undertaken in May.
It found that Europeans tend to believe that Ukraine won't defeat Russia on the battlefield, with roughly a third to half of those surveyed believing the war will end in a negotiated settlement, and up to 31 percent (Greece) seeing a Russian victory as most likely. Of the EU countries surveyed, only in Estonia was a Ukraine victory the prevailing view (38 percent).
On the contrary, the majority of Ukrainians (58 percent) remain confident their troops can win, and that they can continue to count on the support of their international allies. Only 1 percent of Ukrainians believe Russia will win the war, while 30 percent see a negotiated settlement as the most likely outcome.
The study also found considerable differences of opinion among EU countries on how to support the defense of Ukraine and on Kyiv’s EU and NATO accession.
NATO leaders are “unlikely to find domestic support for troop deployments" among member country populations, the findings revealed (country results ranged from 4 percent to 22 percent in favor).
On defense spending, the data showed that most countries are against increasing their contributions — the exceptions being Poland (where 53 percent support increasing defense spending), Estonia (45 percent), Sweden (41 percent) and Germany (40 percent).
However, most Europeans still support being involved in the war in other ways — such as by providing technical assistance and by increasing the supply of weapons and ammunition.
Only in Bulgaria, Greece and Italy does the majority of the population — 63 percent, 54 percent and 53 percent, respectively — think increasing the supply of ammunition and weapons to Ukraine is a “bad idea."
Europeans are also divided on the benefits of admitting Ukraine to the EU. The most supportive countries are Portugal, Estonia, Sweden, Spain and Poland, while the most skeptical are Germany, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and France.
Among Ukrainians, almost two-thirds (64 percent) believe that EU membership is as crucial as NATO membership to their country’s future.
Ukraine applied for membership in the bloc in February 2022 and was granted EU candidate status in June the same year. About a week ago, on June 25, the EU opened formal accession talks with both Ukraine and Moldova.
Europeans skeptical Ukraine will win war, polling shows
Most EU countries surveyed also opposed increasing their defense spending for Ukraine.
The end to this war may involve Ukraine losing some territory in favor of NATO membership or having a few countries permanently establish bases and troops in the country. That may be the “win” we all have to live with.
At this point I think the best case scenario for Ukraine is reverting back to the pre Feb 2022 lines unfortunately.
In addition, NATO/EU membership. At the end of the day that's a decent result for them all things considered.
Might end up being freezing the lines as they stand now with NATO/EU membership. Not as good but Ukraine survives and has security agreements.
I don't know if Ukraine's population would be happy with either scenario.
Not sure they can get back to the pre-2014 lines minus a total Russian collapse.
Probably an exaggeration but it is interesting.
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I don't think it's an exaggeration. Xi owns Putin.
Putin is wearing out the "west" in Ukraine. Setting the table for whatever Xi wants to pull in regards to Taiwan.
I think that's Xi's calculus.
But I doubt you believe that Xi could have any influence over Putin withdrawing. Putin has put his life on the line by starting this war and he dare not lose it.
This premise is false (NATO expanding) but I believe trump is willing to do this for his buddy Putin.
I agree Putin is all in but Xi is obviously fine with it.
Wear down the "west" by them having to support Ukraine while their populations slowly but inevitably tire of it.
Xi should take the temperature of his own populace for a protracted war to seize Taiwan, and analyze just how difficult drones of all types have made modern warfare for his untested forces, and how Western tech have bled Russia dry.
How about Russia not expanding Westward. Is that on the table?
FWIW Maybe what we should be hoping for is the WW1 like collapse of the Russian military.
Gaslighting.
Date:
2008 February 1, 14:25 (Friday)
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
Following a muted first reaction to Ukraine's intent to seek a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the Bucharest summit (ref A), Foreign Minister Lavrov and other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition, stressing that Russia would view further eastward expansion as a potential military threat. NATO enlargement, particularly to Ukraine, remains "an emotional and neuralgic" issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene.
I’m rooting for them to start shooting their officers.
Ahead of the Olympics and elections in France, Russian misinformation campaigns shift into high gear in an attempt to sow discord, erode support for Ukraine, and create distrust of elections and the media.
Pepare yourselves for a lot of this in the US. We are already seeing bot driven misinformation being amplified by the useful stooges of HORT.
https://apnews.com/article/france-e...sia-olympics-be18d688677240686df200096018f221
Pepare yourselves for a lot of this in the US. We are already seeing bot driven misinformation being amplified by the useful stooges of HORT.
https://apnews.com/article/france-e...sia-olympics-be18d688677240686df200096018f221
Ukraine has also turned to prisoners as a source of soldiers. They say they are doing it differently than Russia by integrating them into regular units after they have been trained versus using them as waves of bullet catchers after no training. Ukraine also excludes more classes of prisoners than Russia does. No rapists, murderers of 2 or more people, and nobody who has committed a high crime against the state.
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-prisons-parole-russia-military-08d1b13d527548ea4cc24de636766342
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-prisons-parole-russia-military-08d1b13d527548ea4cc24de636766342
Why is a Ukrainian shout Yes Yes? DA da but not yes. AMERICANS there?
Occupied cities near the front. Changing signs from Ukrainian to Russian.
Dont like Trump. This is a stretch why its getting no attention.
Finland is like “that’s cute you think that.”
Coincidentally, the richest counties in the US are located around Washington DC.
They’re not known for their manufacturing or resource development.
Its worse in Ukraine. GDP per capita is 5k.
The Govt does nothing to develop rural areas except allow big ag companies to swallow farms
The there was Burisma.
You should read about the gas princess.
