This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
- Start date
Me likey.Some of this is FWIW - later he claims the Russians in the city voted to join Ukraine
Awesome developments. I was thinking back to the short circuited “Spring Offensive” last year. This is similar to what I had hoped for…
Coordinated, quick moving attacks in multiple ways in multiple places.
Slavs Ukraini!
I know it can't last but I am enjoying this SO much! Hope they have some add on attacks that will continue to confound the Russians.
Surely just a dream but a nice one.
Last edited:
Putin leads Russian cavalry to relieve Kursk!
Current situation in Kursk oblast according to Russian milblogegrs. They claimed 11 villages are under UKR control. By unconfirmed information Goncharovka is contested
In purple mark on more largescale map is Kursk nuclear power plant in Kurchatov city
In purple mark on more largescale map is Kursk nuclear power plant in Kurchatov city
Every guy at that table is wondering which other guy at that table is plotting to kill them.
Worth a read…
Yesterday, Ukraine Invaded Russia. Today, The Ukrainians Marched Nearly 10 Miles. Whatever Kyiv Aims To Achieve, It’s Taking A Huge Risk.
Several times since Russia widened its war on Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian and allied forces have crossed the Russia-Ukraine border for brief, showy raids—counter-invasions, if you will.
The risky raids never accomplished very much except to embarrass Russian leaders. Possibly until now.
Yesterday, elements of at least two Ukrainian army brigades—apparently not including pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters, as we initially reported—exploited a gap in the defenses around the village of Sudzha, in Kursk Oblast on the Russian side of Ukraine’s northern border.
A day later, hundreds of Ukrainian troops from (at least) the 22nd and 88th Mechanized Brigades supported by artillery, drones and air defenses have marched nearly 10 miles into southern Russia, routing local Russian forces and capturing Sudzha along with several other villages.
It’s an impressive feat for an army that has been on the defensive for a whole year—and which has struggled to mobilize sufficient manpower to hold off relentless but costly Russian assaults all the front line in eastern Ukraine.
The Ukrainian army can’t fully staff the brigades defending front-line towns in the east—with dire implications for Kyiv’s efforts to hold onto the last free swathes of Donetsk Oblast. And yet, the army was able to assign two or more brigades to the Sudzha attack—and deemed the potential gains in this attack to be worth the potential cost.
“I’m still not sure what the goal here is,” wroteJohn Helin, a Ukraine expert with Finnish analysis group Black Bird Group. “According to unreliable reports, Ukraine has concentrated elements from two to four brigades in the area. These would be gravely needed in the east.”
It’s possible the Ukrainian general staff in Kyiv believes a Ukrainian northern offensive might compel the Kremlin to shift troops away from eastern Ukraine, thereby slowing Russian advances on that front.
But at least two, and potentially four, Ukrainian brigades are engaged in this possible diversionary effort. For a diversionary strategy to pay off for Kyiv, the Kremlin would have to redeploy a lot of regiments from the east—potentially a dozen, according to Helin.
If the Russian northern grouping of forces can halt the Ukrainian advance without borrowing regiments from the east, the Ukrainian gambit will fail. Assuming, of course, that diverting Russian troops is the point.
It’s possible the Ukrainian attack isn’t a diversion. Instead, it may be exactly what it appears to be: a serious effort to capture and hold Russian soil.
In that case, the ultimate aim may be diplomatic. Occupying even a small part of Russia would position Ukraine to trade, during possible future peace negotiations, that territory for parts of Ukraine that Russia occupies.
Then again, the Ukrainian planners might not care at all about hypothetical peace negotiations. They may sincerely hope to sustain—albeit at great risk—an ongoing invasion of Russia.
“As Ukraine tries to take the initiative in the northeastern border regions, there is a possibility for follow-up operations,” Black Bird Group’s Emil Kastehelmi wrote. “After creating confusion and forcing Russia to react in Kursk, Ukraine could try to attack somewhere else, too—if there are still available forces left.”
It’s a big if. Whatever Ukraine’s strategy in the north, the risk is the same. “Ukrainian commanders have limited forces to reinforce units that are under pressure or to stop breakthroughs,” explained Rob Lee, an analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia.
Ukrainian forces were stretched thin along the 700-mile front line in Urkaine before two, three or four Ukrainian brigades invaded Russia. Now they’re stretched even thinner. The danger of further Russian breakthroughs is growing, especially in the east.
Ukrainian commanders are gambling they can go on the attack in the north without suffering heavy casualties. But attacking out in the open is almost always costlier than defending from prepared positions.
“Offensive operations ... risk taking higher casualties than in defense—at a time when Ukrainian forces are stretched thin,” Lee wrote. “Ukraine needs to maintain a favorable attrition ratio given the manpower situation, so taking heavy losses in this operation could make it more difficult.”
The good news, for the Ukrainian brigades in Kursk, is that they have the momentum—for now. They’ve shot down two Russian helicopters, one of them using an explosive first-person-view drone. They’ve knocked out Russian tanks and captured scores of Russian troops. “The Russians seem to be in a state of disarray,” Kastehelmi noted.
But that could change as the Russians trade space for time and bring in additional forces. Compared to a year ago, Russia “already has greater forces [and] conventional capabilities in the area, better command and control—and it has conscript units that can be deployed, which are not used in Ukraine,” Lee pointed out.
All outside observers can do right now is watch and wait. Maybe, with a bold and risky attack, the Ukrainians are turning the tide of the war along one front. Or maybe they’re throwing away what few spare troops they have on a doomed border raid.
Time will tell. “Hopefully Ukraine has a clear idea about the goals of this operation, and hopefully those goals are also achievable both politically and militarily,” Helin wrote. “As it stands right now I still feel like Ukraine is doing some high stakes gambling while holding a pretty bad hand.”
Yesterday, Ukraine Invaded Russia. Today, The Ukrainians Marched Nearly 10 Miles. Whatever Kyiv Aims To Achieve, It’s Taking A Huge Risk.
Ukrainian commanders have deployed their last few spare troops across the border into Russia.
www.forbes.com
Really curious if and how they will use those missing Free Russian forces at some point in this offensive.
Worth a read…
Yesterday, Ukraine Invaded Russia. Today, The Ukrainians Marched Nearly 10 Miles. Whatever Kyiv Aims To Achieve, It’s Taking A Huge Risk.
Several times since Russia widened its war on Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian and allied forces have crossed the Russia-Ukraine border for brief, showy raids—counter-invasions, if you will.
The risky raids never accomplished very much except to embarrass Russian leaders. Possibly until now.
Yesterday, elements of at least two Ukrainian army brigades—apparently not including pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters, as we initially reported—exploited a gap in the defenses around the village of Sudzha, in Kursk Oblast on the Russian side of Ukraine’s northern border.
A day later, hundreds of Ukrainian troops from (at least) the 22nd and 88th Mechanized Brigades supported by artillery, drones and air defenses have marched nearly 10 miles into southern Russia, routing local Russian forces and capturing Sudzha along with several other villages.
It’s an impressive feat for an army that has been on the defensive for a whole year—and which has struggled to mobilize sufficient manpower to hold off relentless but costly Russian assaults all the front line in eastern Ukraine.
The Ukrainian army can’t fully staff the brigades defending front-line towns in the east—with dire implications for Kyiv’s efforts to hold onto the last free swathes of Donetsk Oblast. And yet, the army was able to assign two or more brigades to the Sudzha attack—and deemed the potential gains in this attack to be worth the potential cost.
“I’m still not sure what the goal here is,” wroteJohn Helin, a Ukraine expert with Finnish analysis group Black Bird Group. “According to unreliable reports, Ukraine has concentrated elements from two to four brigades in the area. These would be gravely needed in the east.”
It’s possible the Ukrainian general staff in Kyiv believes a Ukrainian northern offensive might compel the Kremlin to shift troops away from eastern Ukraine, thereby slowing Russian advances on that front.
But at least two, and potentially four, Ukrainian brigades are engaged in this possible diversionary effort. For a diversionary strategy to pay off for Kyiv, the Kremlin would have to redeploy a lot of regiments from the east—potentially a dozen, according to Helin.
If the Russian northern grouping of forces can halt the Ukrainian advance without borrowing regiments from the east, the Ukrainian gambit will fail. Assuming, of course, that diverting Russian troops is the point.
It’s possible the Ukrainian attack isn’t a diversion. Instead, it may be exactly what it appears to be: a serious effort to capture and hold Russian soil.
In that case, the ultimate aim may be diplomatic. Occupying even a small part of Russia would position Ukraine to trade, during possible future peace negotiations, that territory for parts of Ukraine that Russia occupies.
Then again, the Ukrainian planners might not care at all about hypothetical peace negotiations. They may sincerely hope to sustain—albeit at great risk—an ongoing invasion of Russia.
“As Ukraine tries to take the initiative in the northeastern border regions, there is a possibility for follow-up operations,” Black Bird Group’s Emil Kastehelmi wrote. “After creating confusion and forcing Russia to react in Kursk, Ukraine could try to attack somewhere else, too—if there are still available forces left.”
It’s a big if. Whatever Ukraine’s strategy in the north, the risk is the same. “Ukrainian commanders have limited forces to reinforce units that are under pressure or to stop breakthroughs,” explained Rob Lee, an analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia.
Ukrainian forces were stretched thin along the 700-mile front line in Urkaine before two, three or four Ukrainian brigades invaded Russia. Now they’re stretched even thinner. The danger of further Russian breakthroughs is growing, especially in the east.
Ukrainian commanders are gambling they can go on the attack in the north without suffering heavy casualties. But attacking out in the open is almost always costlier than defending from prepared positions.
“Offensive operations ... risk taking higher casualties than in defense—at a time when Ukrainian forces are stretched thin,” Lee wrote. “Ukraine needs to maintain a favorable attrition ratio given the manpower situation, so taking heavy losses in this operation could make it more difficult.”
The good news, for the Ukrainian brigades in Kursk, is that they have the momentum—for now. They’ve shot down two Russian helicopters, one of them using an explosive first-person-view drone. They’ve knocked out Russian tanks and captured scores of Russian troops. “The Russians seem to be in a state of disarray,” Kastehelmi noted.
But that could change as the Russians trade space for time and bring in additional forces. Compared to a year ago, Russia “already has greater forces [and] conventional capabilities in the area, better command and control—and it has conscript units that can be deployed, which are not used in Ukraine,” Lee pointed out.
All outside observers can do right now is watch and wait. Maybe, with a bold and risky attack, the Ukrainians are turning the tide of the war along one front. Or maybe they’re throwing away what few spare troops they have on a doomed border raid.
Time will tell. “Hopefully Ukraine has a clear idea about the goals of this operation, and hopefully those goals are also achievable both politically and militarily,” Helin wrote. “As it stands right now I still feel like Ukraine is doing some high stakes gambling while holding a pretty bad hand.”
Yesterday, Ukraine Invaded Russia. Today, The Ukrainians Marched Nearly 10 Miles. Whatever Kyiv Aims To Achieve, It’s Taking A Huge Risk.
Ukrainian commanders have deployed their last few spare troops across the border into Russia.
And if Ukraine can cut some of those supply lines, the Russian offensives may be in trouble.
If Ukraine can reach them they could destroy the railway bridges which should take Russia awhile to replace.
Last edited:
AP story on the incursion. Short version, Putin is angry. Yes, it is risky, but I doubt the Ukrainians are being foolhardy. My guess is they withdraw after taking the propaganda value out of the action. I also suspect this is deigned to make Russia shift resources, possibly opening up new targets as men and equipment are much more vulnerable while moving in the open. I hope the Ukrainians have rockets primed to pound the area as reinforcements move in.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...er-incursion-e838343b88b2dd9827f5a40fbc5a1db7
https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...er-incursion-e838343b88b2dd9827f5a40fbc5a1db7
EU nations are importing more Russian LNG despite pleas from Ukraine to cut back. TotalEnergy says that Houthi raids in the Red Sea have made Russian gas transported through the Arctic necessary as importing from the ME becomes more costly. As mentioned in the article gas from multiple other areas including the US and West Africa do not go through the Red Sea, and imports from those areas have been curtailed.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-f...shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186
https://apnews.com/article/russia-f...shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186
Or, not "foolhardy" at all, to take over a major source of Russian income, when their economy is already reeling...
They cannot hope to hold the area. Although, they might want to blow up some NG facilities on their way back out...
...almost like stirring up trouble in the ME (when 25% of LNG exports come from there) is part of the Russian strategy, to pretty much guarantee Europe will have to import theirs.
Ukraine may have responded in-kind here.
Russia battles Ukrainian troops for a third day after major incursion
MOSCOW, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Russian forces were battling Ukrainian troops for a third day on Thursday after they smashed through the Russian border in the Kursk region, an audacious attack on the world's biggest nuclear power that has forced Moscow to call in reserves.
In one of the biggest Ukrainian attacks on Russia of the two-year war, around 1,000 Ukrainian troops rammed through the Russian border in the early hours of Aug. 6 with tanks and armoured vehicles, covered in the air by swarms of drones and pounding artillery, according to Russian officials.
Ukrainian forces swept through the fields and forests of the border towards the north of the border town of Sudzha, the last operational trans-shipping point for Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine.
President Vladimir Putin cast the attack as a "major provocation". The White House said the United States, opens new tab - Ukraine's biggest backer - had no prior knowledge of the attack and would seek more details from Kyiv.
Russia's most senior general, chief of general staff, Valery Gerasimov, told Putin on Wednesday that the Ukrainian offensive had been halted in the border area.
Russia's defence ministry said on Thursday that the army and the Federal Security Service (FSB) had halted the Ukrainian advance and were battling Ukrainian units in the Kursk region.
"Units of the Northern group of forces, together with the FSB of Russia, continue to destroy armed formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Sudzhensky and Korenevsky districts of the Kursk region, directly adjacent to the Russian-Ukrainian border," the ministry said.
It said Ukraine had lost 82 armoured vehicles including eight tanks in the attack.
The Ukrainian army has remained silent on the Kursk offensive.
Some Russian bloggers criticised the state of border defences in the Kursk region, saying it had been far too easy for Ukrainian forces to slice through them.
"The enemy passed through our line of defence quite easily," said Yuri Podolyaka, a popular Ukrainian-born, pro-Russian military blogger, adding that no complete defensive work had been prepared in the Kursk region despite the ongoing conflict.
CRITICAL JUNCTURE
The battles around Sudzha come at a crucial juncture in the conflict, the biggest land war in Europe since World War Two. Kyiv is concerned that U.S. support could drop off if Republican Donald Trump wins the November presidential election.Trump has said he would end the war, and both Russia and Ukraine are keen to gain the strongest possible bargaining position on the battlefield.
Ukraine wants to pin down Russian forces, which control 18% of its territory, though the strategic significance of the border offensive was not immediately clear.
Several thousand people were being evacuated from the Kursk region, according to Russian media.
Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said the Ukrainian attack was an attempt to force Russia to divert resources from the front and to show the West that Ukraine could still fight.
As a result of the Kursk attack, Medvedev said, Russia should expand its war aims to include taking all of Ukraine.
"From this moment on, the SVO (Special Military Operation) should acquire an openly extraterritorial character," Medvedev said, adding that Russian forces should go to Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolayiv, Kyiv "and beyond".
"We will stop only when we consider it acceptable and profitable for ourselves."
Gas was still flowing through Sudzha. Russia's National Guard said it had beefed up security around the Kursk nuclear power station, which lies about 60 km northeast of the town.
LMAO-he reported these lies directly to clearly distracted and fidgety Putin on State TV. Accounts of what is going on much different-funny how they always overdo the lies.
“Russia's most senior general, chief of general staff, Valery Gerasimov, told Putin on Wednesday that the Ukrainian offensive had been halted in the border area.
Russia's defence ministry said on Thursday that the army and the Federal Security Service (FSB) had halted the Ukrainian advance and were battling Ukrainian units in the Kursk region.
"Units of the Northern group of forces, together with the FSB of Russia, continue to destroy armed formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Sudzhensky and Korenevsky districts of the Kursk region, directly adjacent to the Russian-Ukrainian border," the ministry said.
It said Ukraine had lost 82 armoured vehicles including eight tanks in the attack.
The Ukrainian army has remained silent on the Kursk offensive.“
Hush your mouth-they had a massive well trained group of defenders that took out 82 tanks and armored vehicles.
Video of Russia Special Forces taking out 8 tanks and 74 armored vehicles.
I'm just shocked the russians are reporting as much as they are about the incursion. I would have thought they'd try to bury it.
It's starting to look like a major development if the Russians are having to shift reserves to counter it. Basically offsets their grind it out offensive if the Ukrainians can get them to shift enough reserves.
I think one of those stout defenders is a lady and there is nothing wrong with that.
Russian defense was totally prepared and holding up. Nothing to see here. Move along. Ignore reports of Ukrainians being 32km inside Russia and still advancing.
Pretty good write up of the 72 hour Russian invasion and reasons behind it and challenges faced.
Ukraine-Russia latest: Putin’s troops forced back miles by Kyiv’s cross-border incursion as thousands evacuate
Intense battles between Ukrainian and Moscow’s troops inside the Russian border region of Kursk have entered a third day after an audacious attack by Kyiv’s forces.
War monitor the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Ukrainian soldiers had penetrated more than six miles (10km) across the border, breaking through two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.
Russia declared a state of emergency amid the fierce fighting, despite seeking to claim that the situation was under control. Russian state media said that 3,000 people have been evacuated from the area.
Moscow’s military chief Valery Gerasimov briefed president Vladimir Putin on Wednesday about the attack, while neither Kyiv nor president Volodymyr Zelensky has made any direct reference to the assault while exhorting Kyiv’s soldiers to press on and weaken Russian forces.
Multiple pro-Russian military bloggers said the battles continued into Thursday.
"Sudzha [a district in Kursk] is basically lost to us. And this is an important logistics hub," said Yuri Podolyaka, a popular Ukrainian-born pro-Russian military blogger, adding that Ukrainian forces were pushing north towards Lgov.
Putin’s troops forced back miles by Ukraine’s cross-border attack - live
Kyiv and Volodymyr Zelensky maintain silence over massive border operation on Russian soil
www.independent.co.uk
