This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
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Russia struggles to repel deep incursion by Ukraine on fourth day of cross-border attack
When Kyiv launched a cross-border raid into Russia’s Kursk region bordering Ukraine, the question from some military experts was: “Why?”
One of Ukraine’s biggest battlefield issues is manpower. Russia has more soldiers and is inching closer to the eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk.
So, sending hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers into Russia itself is, shall we say, counterintuitive in the eyes of some.
But not all.
“It wasn’t accidental,” said war expert Kostyantyn Mashovets in a Facebook post. “It’s clearly part of one clear plan."
Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov, a military analyst, agrees. He told the BBC that Russia had been forced to redeploy some troops there from the front line in eastern Ukraine.
“If you look at official reports, there were significantly fewer Russian glide bombs dropped in the Donetsk area,” he said.
“That means the aircraft which carry them are now elsewhere in Russia.”
This incursion is extremely unlikely to be Ukraine looking to occupy Russian territory, but if pulling in Russian forces was a goal, it is quickly being realised.
- Russia's military says it's "continuing to repel" a Ukrainian cross-border incursion into its western Kursk region - a surprise attack now in its fourth day
- Reports suggest that Ukrainian troops are operating about 10km inside Russian territory - the deepest cross-border advance by Kyiv since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022
- Russia continues to insist it's successfully repelling the incursion
- Late on Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Moscow must "feel" the consequences for its invasion of Ukraine - but didn't directly mention the situation in Kursk
Ukraine war latest: Russia struggles to repel deep incursion by Ukraine on fourth day of cross-border attack
Residents of Russia's western Kursk region have been evacuated, as Ukraine also reportedly tells 20,000 people to leave border areas.
www.bbc.com
Really starting to look like this is taking the steam out of the Russians grind it out offensive as they pull forces to meet the incursion.
Another good article...
“It seems to be a fairly well-coordinated an planned combined armed operation,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst. “You have electronic warfare assets that were deployed to jam Russian command and control. You have air defenses that were moved in to create air defense bubbles around the Ukrainian advance. And then you have fairly effective mechanized formations moving forward at a fairly steady pace.”
Mr. Gady and other experts said the main question now was whether Ukraine can maintain the momentum and turn the success on Russian territory into useful gains. The Ukrainian Army has few reserves it can pour into the fight, and it continues to suffer from shortages of weapons and ammunition, analysts say.
It also remains unclear what Ukraine ultimately hopes to accomplish. A senior Ukrainian official who spoke the on condition of anonymity to discuss the operation said the goal was to draw Russian troops away from other parts of the front line where Ukrainian units are struggling. But military experts said that Russia would likely be able to respond with reserves who were not fighting in Ukraine.
“Does it really solve any of the larger military strategic problems that the other parts of the front line are suffering from?” Mr. Gady asked.
A map of the battlefield by the Black Bird Group, a Finland-based organization that analyzes images from the battlefield, shows that Ukrainian troops have gained about 100 square miles of Russian territory since the beginning of the attack, although it remains unclear whether they have secured control of all of it. They have advanced past two lines of Russian defenses.
In particular, the Ukrainian army has closed in on Sudzha, a small town of about 6,000 people six miles from the Ukrainian-Russian border.
Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst from the Black Bird Group, wrote on the social platform X that some Ukrainian units appeared to be conducting probing raids further north in the direction Lgov, a town about 50 miles from the border, in what appears to be a test of Russian defenses.
A video posted on social media on Friday morning and verified by The New York Times showed a column of destroyed military vehicles just east of Rylsk, a town west of the border area captured by Ukraine. It was not immediately clear whether the vehicles were Russian or Ukrainian.
It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will try to push further into Russian territory to solidify control over the area it has captured, or retreat after a few days, as has happened in previous, smaller-scale cross-border raids.
Mr. Kastehelmi said Ukraine could not continue further north without widening its flanks and exposing itself to Russian counterattacks. “Time is also running against Ukrainians,” he wrote. “Russians won’t be disorganized forever.”
As Ukraine Presses an Advance Into Russia, Its Goals Remain Unclear
Despite quick gains in the western Russian region of Kursk, analysts question whether Ukraine can maintain the momentum.“It seems to be a fairly well-coordinated an planned combined armed operation,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst. “You have electronic warfare assets that were deployed to jam Russian command and control. You have air defenses that were moved in to create air defense bubbles around the Ukrainian advance. And then you have fairly effective mechanized formations moving forward at a fairly steady pace.”
Mr. Gady and other experts said the main question now was whether Ukraine can maintain the momentum and turn the success on Russian territory into useful gains. The Ukrainian Army has few reserves it can pour into the fight, and it continues to suffer from shortages of weapons and ammunition, analysts say.
It also remains unclear what Ukraine ultimately hopes to accomplish. A senior Ukrainian official who spoke the on condition of anonymity to discuss the operation said the goal was to draw Russian troops away from other parts of the front line where Ukrainian units are struggling. But military experts said that Russia would likely be able to respond with reserves who were not fighting in Ukraine.
“Does it really solve any of the larger military strategic problems that the other parts of the front line are suffering from?” Mr. Gady asked.
A map of the battlefield by the Black Bird Group, a Finland-based organization that analyzes images from the battlefield, shows that Ukrainian troops have gained about 100 square miles of Russian territory since the beginning of the attack, although it remains unclear whether they have secured control of all of it. They have advanced past two lines of Russian defenses.
In particular, the Ukrainian army has closed in on Sudzha, a small town of about 6,000 people six miles from the Ukrainian-Russian border.
Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst from the Black Bird Group, wrote on the social platform X that some Ukrainian units appeared to be conducting probing raids further north in the direction Lgov, a town about 50 miles from the border, in what appears to be a test of Russian defenses.
A video posted on social media on Friday morning and verified by The New York Times showed a column of destroyed military vehicles just east of Rylsk, a town west of the border area captured by Ukraine. It was not immediately clear whether the vehicles were Russian or Ukrainian.
It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will try to push further into Russian territory to solidify control over the area it has captured, or retreat after a few days, as has happened in previous, smaller-scale cross-border raids.
Mr. Kastehelmi said Ukraine could not continue further north without widening its flanks and exposing itself to Russian counterattacks. “Time is also running against Ukrainians,” he wrote. “Russians won’t be disorganized forever.”
SIAP, a big attack inside Russia destroyed 700 stored glide bombs and other high value targets.
It is fascinating to ponder what the goal is-Ukraine sure have kept operation quiet from the start.
I think it’s main goal, other than perhaps messing up supply routes, is to make it impossible for the Russian citizens and military to ignore the fact their Army has been majorly depleted and damaged and they are quite simply unable to defend the rest of the country. Therefore I believe their desired outcome for this is 1) put major pressure on Putin in hopes the people / military take care of him and 2) cause unrest in other territories in Russia that may want to break free like for example Georgia.
The 1,000 of accounts of what is happening from the citizens there will spread like wildfire to Moscow and St Petersburg not all that far to the north. These citizens there already know something is not quite right but now are really finding out.
This should be majorly damaging to their psyche. Can you imagine 1,000ish troops from Mexican army doing an incursion 25 miles into US and wiping out a huge chunck of national guard, shooting down helicopters and planes and we are entering day 4 with no answers. I can’t either because our air power would wipe them off map first day.
The Russian military is massively depleted.
I think the primary goal is to force the immediate reallocation of resources along the front, and there are far fewer glide bomb attacks now. I think the benefits outlined by you are perhaps what greenlighted the operation.
I think the goal was what you stated and to get the Russians to shift reserves and take pressure off the rest of the front.
This incursion definitely brings the war home for the Russians in that region.
I just hope the Ukrainians can extract their forces without significant losses if and when the Russians get their shit together. They simply can't afford getting a couple brigades cut off and trapped. I'm pretty confident they're fully aware of that.
Kind of looks like this is a "spoiling" attack by the Ukrainians. Design to "spoil" whatever plans the Russians had in regards to their offensive by having to react to this.
And the railroads - Ukraine has control over one of the main lines for as long as they can stay there. This should reduce supplies going to Russian forces in Ukraine. If they can starve them, they will have to go even slower than they are now.
Or better yet they can FUBAR all the rail in multiple areas and don’t even have to hold. Roads to. I bet a ton of rail and road bridges are being destroyed.
The hilarious part of this is that Russia is vowing retaliation and is incensed. WTF do they think they’ve been doing for 2.5 years?
Seems like somebody has been harping on this point for quite some time now. Hmmm, oh I remember. It is @JoesPlace . Yep, blitz the rails!!
