This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
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Russia struggles to repel deep incursion by Ukraine on fourth day of cross-border attack
When Kyiv launched a cross-border raid into Russia’s Kursk region bordering Ukraine, the question from some military experts was: “Why?”
One of Ukraine’s biggest battlefield issues is manpower. Russia has more soldiers and is inching closer to the eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk.
So, sending hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers into Russia itself is, shall we say, counterintuitive in the eyes of some.
But not all.
“It wasn’t accidental,” said war expert Kostyantyn Mashovets in a Facebook post. “It’s clearly part of one clear plan."
Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov, a military analyst, agrees. He told the BBC that Russia had been forced to redeploy some troops there from the front line in eastern Ukraine.
“If you look at official reports, there were significantly fewer Russian glide bombs dropped in the Donetsk area,” he said.
“That means the aircraft which carry them are now elsewhere in Russia.”
This incursion is extremely unlikely to be Ukraine looking to occupy Russian territory, but if pulling in Russian forces was a goal, it is quickly being realised.
- Russia's military says it's "continuing to repel" a Ukrainian cross-border incursion into its western Kursk region - a surprise attack now in its fourth day
- Reports suggest that Ukrainian troops are operating about 10km inside Russian territory - the deepest cross-border advance by Kyiv since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022
- Russia continues to insist it's successfully repelling the incursion
- Late on Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Moscow must "feel" the consequences for its invasion of Ukraine - but didn't directly mention the situation in Kursk
Ukraine war latest: Russia struggles to repel deep incursion by Ukraine on fourth day of cross-border attack
Residents of Russia's western Kursk region have been evacuated, as Ukraine also reportedly tells 20,000 people to leave border areas.
www.bbc.com
Really starting to look like this is taking the steam out of the Russians grind it out offensive as they pull forces to meet the incursion.
Another good article...
“It seems to be a fairly well-coordinated an planned combined armed operation,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst. “You have electronic warfare assets that were deployed to jam Russian command and control. You have air defenses that were moved in to create air defense bubbles around the Ukrainian advance. And then you have fairly effective mechanized formations moving forward at a fairly steady pace.”
Mr. Gady and other experts said the main question now was whether Ukraine can maintain the momentum and turn the success on Russian territory into useful gains. The Ukrainian Army has few reserves it can pour into the fight, and it continues to suffer from shortages of weapons and ammunition, analysts say.
It also remains unclear what Ukraine ultimately hopes to accomplish. A senior Ukrainian official who spoke the on condition of anonymity to discuss the operation said the goal was to draw Russian troops away from other parts of the front line where Ukrainian units are struggling. But military experts said that Russia would likely be able to respond with reserves who were not fighting in Ukraine.
“Does it really solve any of the larger military strategic problems that the other parts of the front line are suffering from?” Mr. Gady asked.
A map of the battlefield by the Black Bird Group, a Finland-based organization that analyzes images from the battlefield, shows that Ukrainian troops have gained about 100 square miles of Russian territory since the beginning of the attack, although it remains unclear whether they have secured control of all of it. They have advanced past two lines of Russian defenses.
In particular, the Ukrainian army has closed in on Sudzha, a small town of about 6,000 people six miles from the Ukrainian-Russian border.
Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst from the Black Bird Group, wrote on the social platform X that some Ukrainian units appeared to be conducting probing raids further north in the direction Lgov, a town about 50 miles from the border, in what appears to be a test of Russian defenses.
A video posted on social media on Friday morning and verified by The New York Times showed a column of destroyed military vehicles just east of Rylsk, a town west of the border area captured by Ukraine. It was not immediately clear whether the vehicles were Russian or Ukrainian.
It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will try to push further into Russian territory to solidify control over the area it has captured, or retreat after a few days, as has happened in previous, smaller-scale cross-border raids.
Mr. Kastehelmi said Ukraine could not continue further north without widening its flanks and exposing itself to Russian counterattacks. “Time is also running against Ukrainians,” he wrote. “Russians won’t be disorganized forever.”
As Ukraine Presses an Advance Into Russia, Its Goals Remain Unclear
Despite quick gains in the western Russian region of Kursk, analysts question whether Ukraine can maintain the momentum.“It seems to be a fairly well-coordinated an planned combined armed operation,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst. “You have electronic warfare assets that were deployed to jam Russian command and control. You have air defenses that were moved in to create air defense bubbles around the Ukrainian advance. And then you have fairly effective mechanized formations moving forward at a fairly steady pace.”
Mr. Gady and other experts said the main question now was whether Ukraine can maintain the momentum and turn the success on Russian territory into useful gains. The Ukrainian Army has few reserves it can pour into the fight, and it continues to suffer from shortages of weapons and ammunition, analysts say.
It also remains unclear what Ukraine ultimately hopes to accomplish. A senior Ukrainian official who spoke the on condition of anonymity to discuss the operation said the goal was to draw Russian troops away from other parts of the front line where Ukrainian units are struggling. But military experts said that Russia would likely be able to respond with reserves who were not fighting in Ukraine.
“Does it really solve any of the larger military strategic problems that the other parts of the front line are suffering from?” Mr. Gady asked.
A map of the battlefield by the Black Bird Group, a Finland-based organization that analyzes images from the battlefield, shows that Ukrainian troops have gained about 100 square miles of Russian territory since the beginning of the attack, although it remains unclear whether they have secured control of all of it. They have advanced past two lines of Russian defenses.
In particular, the Ukrainian army has closed in on Sudzha, a small town of about 6,000 people six miles from the Ukrainian-Russian border.
Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst from the Black Bird Group, wrote on the social platform X that some Ukrainian units appeared to be conducting probing raids further north in the direction Lgov, a town about 50 miles from the border, in what appears to be a test of Russian defenses.
A video posted on social media on Friday morning and verified by The New York Times showed a column of destroyed military vehicles just east of Rylsk, a town west of the border area captured by Ukraine. It was not immediately clear whether the vehicles were Russian or Ukrainian.
It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will try to push further into Russian territory to solidify control over the area it has captured, or retreat after a few days, as has happened in previous, smaller-scale cross-border raids.
Mr. Kastehelmi said Ukraine could not continue further north without widening its flanks and exposing itself to Russian counterattacks. “Time is also running against Ukrainians,” he wrote. “Russians won’t be disorganized forever.”
SIAP, a big attack inside Russia destroyed 700 stored glide bombs and other high value targets.
It is fascinating to ponder what the goal is-Ukraine sure have kept operation quiet from the start.
I think it’s main goal, other than perhaps messing up supply routes, is to make it impossible for the Russian citizens and military to ignore the fact their Army has been majorly depleted and damaged and they are quite simply unable to defend the rest of the country. Therefore I believe their desired outcome for this is 1) put major pressure on Putin in hopes the people / military take care of him and 2) cause unrest in other territories in Russia that may want to break free like for example Georgia.
The 1,000 of accounts of what is happening from the citizens there will spread like wildfire to Moscow and St Petersburg not all that far to the north. These citizens there already know something is not quite right but now are really finding out.
This should be majorly damaging to their psyche. Can you imagine 1,000ish troops from Mexican army doing an incursion 25 miles into US and wiping out a huge chunck of national guard, shooting down helicopters and planes and we are entering day 4 with no answers. I can’t either because our air power would wipe them off map first day.
The Russian military is massively depleted.
I think the primary goal is to force the immediate reallocation of resources along the front, and there are far fewer glide bomb attacks now. I think the benefits outlined by you are perhaps what greenlighted the operation.
I think the goal was what you stated and to get the Russians to shift reserves and take pressure off the rest of the front.
This incursion definitely brings the war home for the Russians in that region.
I just hope the Ukrainians can extract their forces without significant losses if and when the Russians get their shit together. They simply can't afford getting a couple brigades cut off and trapped. I'm pretty confident they're fully aware of that.
Kind of looks like this is a "spoiling" attack by the Ukrainians. Design to "spoil" whatever plans the Russians had in regards to their offensive by having to react to this.
And the railroads - Ukraine has control over one of the main lines for as long as they can stay there. This should reduce supplies going to Russian forces in Ukraine. If they can starve them, they will have to go even slower than they are now.
Or better yet they can FUBAR all the rail in multiple areas and don’t even have to hold. Roads to. I bet a ton of rail and road bridges are being destroyed.
The hilarious part of this is that Russia is vowing retaliation and is incensed. WTF do they think they’ve been doing for 2.5 years?
Always my first thought.
For the topographic map. They have other maps that claim to know where the various units are but that seems far fetched to me.
If accurate, Ukraine has managed to cross some rivers.
If accurate, Ukraine has managed to cross some rivers.
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Seems like somebody has been harping on this point for quite some time now. Hmmm, oh I remember. It is @JoesPlace . Yep, blitz the rails!!
Sounds like improvements will have to wait.
Maybe more is going on.
Maybe more is going on.
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Ukraine tries not to miss a trick. (The two versions I have seen freeze about the 34 second mark.)
Can't wait to see if they intend to stay or just preparing for follow on forces.
A lot of info-basically they caught the person who filmed the wiped out Russian column and shared it. Stuff like that and the Russian citizens seeing the lies of their leaders is making it harder for the government to cover this attack up.
A lot of info-basically they caught the person who filmed the wiped out Russian column and shared it. Stuff like that and the Russian citizens seeing the lies of their leaders is making it harder for the government to cover this attack up.
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What would really be great right now, to keep the Russians on their heels, would be a large, coordinated missile/boat drone attack on the Crimea bridge. Would love to see that thing destroyed in two or more different sections.
Looks like the most recent attack on Kinburn Spit was also just a raid.
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Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia Could Bring a Quicker End to the War
One aim of the surprise breakthrough may be for Kyiv to gain leverage in negotiations.
In the space of four days, the Russia-Ukraine war has dramatically shifted. The incursion of Ukrainian forces into Russia’s Kursk region has quickly turned into the largest territorial gain by either side since the successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall of 2022. As of this writing, it is still unclear whether thinned-out and poorly prepared Russian forces have been able to halt the Ukrainian advance, with reports of burning columns of Russian reinforcements reminiscent of the early days of the war.
The operation demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to achieve surprise and exploit sudden breakthroughs, something at which Russia has consistently failed since the start of its invasion. It is also the first time Russia has been invaded by foreign troops since World War II, showing Russians in no uncertain terms that the bloody war they unleashed against their neighbor has come home. Ukraine’s Western supporters seem to be on board, with the White House and European Union headquarters issuing statements that it was up to Ukraine to decide on the operation.
Previously, there had been much debate in Washington, Berlin, and among a wildly speculating media about the Kremlin’s supposed red lines that would set off World War III and nuclear Armageddon, with one of the lines being taking the war to Russia with Western weapons. The latter has now occurred. The belief in uncontrolled escalation led the Biden administration and some of its partners to severely restrict both the types of weapons delivered to Ukraine and their permitted range; Ukraine has not been allowed to use Western missiles to hit military installations on the Russian side of the border, for example. Part of the effect and purpose of the Kursk operation could be to demonstrate, once again, the fallacy of the red-line argument.
As the offensive unfolds and Kyiv stays mostly mum on events, it’s still too early to say what strategic goals Ukraine is hoping to achieve. One speculation that has gained a lot of traction is that it could lead to a quicker end to the war. The operation makes it clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine retains significant potential to inflict pain on Russia. And if Ukrainian forces can hold on and maintain control of Russian territory—for which they appear to be digging in as they bring in more equipment and build new defensive lines—it could strengthen Ukraine’s leverage in any potential negotiations to end the war. Already, Ukraine’s lightning foray into Russia undermines the widespread idea that Putin holds all the cards to dictate the terms of a cease-fire.
Kyiv seems to be signaling that leverage in negotiations is one of the goals of the offensive. An unnamed advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Washington Post: “This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia—this is what it’s all about.” This dovetails with recent hints by Zelensky that Kyiv was ready to negotiate. In an interview with BBC News in July, he said, “We don’t have to recapture all the territories” by military means. “I think that can also be achieved with the help of diplomacy.” Occupied Russia could be traded for occupied Ukraine: As former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt suggested on X, “Would an idea be for both states to retreat to within their respective recognized border?”
If Kyiv seems to be preparing the ground for potential negotiations—by seeking to strengthen its hand and publicly declaring its willingness—it is also a response to several factors.
One is growing war weariness among the Ukrainian population. Although the majority of Ukrainians favor fighting on until all the territories Russia has occupied since 2014 are liberated, the number saying that Ukraine could trade some of that territory for peace has been rising.
Second, there has been growing criticism, particularly in Western Europe and the global south, of the way Ukraine has repeatedly ruled out talks with Moscow. Major substantive issues aside, with the Kremlin apparently back-channeling openness to talks, Kyiv risked being seen as intransigent in preventing an early end to the war.
Finally, Ukraine’s strategic position is risky, even if it holds back Russia and maintains the flow of Western weapons. A victory by Donald Trump in the November U.S. presidential election and a sudden stop of U.S. aid cannot be ruled out, and even a Harris administration may have trouble cobbling together future support packages if the Republicans keep their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Zelensky may have decided to gamble to change and accelerate the dynamics of the war, including greater leverage if negotiations end up taking place sooner than anticipated.
Without much leverage, Kyiv has had to appeal to moral, normative, and legal arguments when communicating with its foreign partners about any peace short of full liberation. In the past, this has led to highly skewed negotiations. In the talks that produced the Minsk I and II accords in 2014 and 2015, Ukraine had such a weak hand that it had to agree to impossible terms: It could only get the Russian-controlled Donbas back if it allowed Moscow’s proxies to become part of the Ukrainian polity through local elections manipulated by the Kremlin, which would have given Moscow a permanent veto over Kyiv’s politics. Previously occupied and annexed Crimea was not even included in the discussion.
In March 2022, direct talks between Ukraine and Russia on the Belarusian border were not a negotiation but Russia’s delivery of surrender terms to Ukraine. In April 2022, negotiations brokered by Turkey in Istanbul also went nowhere: Russia’s price for ending its invasion was a considerable limitation of Ukrainian sovereignty and ability to defend itself. Since then, Russia’s proposal has been for Ukraine to permanently cede, in addition to Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts—including substantial parts that Russia has never occupied.
Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia Could Bring a Quicker End to the War
One aim of the surprise breakthrough may be for Kyiv to gain leverage in negotiations.
foreignpolicy.com
Maybe it’s me, but looking back it seems like maybe the US was throttling Ukraine back until the hostages were back…
Holy shit. Sometimes there is embellishment but every aspect of that airbase was scorched off the face of the earth.
Hope this is true. He is Minister of Defense.
Actually I hope that isn’t true. Austin needs to pick up that phone…he can tell him to F off but he needs to pick it up.
Hot damn I’m digging these developments. Oh, and f*ck Russia.
Russia declares an emergency in Kursk, under attack by Ukraine. 14 die in a Russian strike on a mall
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia declared a “federal-level” emergency in the Kursk region following a large-scale incursion from Ukraine and sent reinforcements there on Friday, four days after hundreds of Ukrainian troops poured across the border in what appeared to be Kyiv’s biggest attack on Russian soil since the war began.
Meanwhile, a Russian plane-launched missile slammed into a Ukrainian shopping mall in the middle of the day, killing at least 14 people and wounding 44 others, authorities said.
The mall in Kostiantynivka, in the eastern Donetsk region, is located in the town’s residential area. Thick black smoke rose above it after the strike.
“This is another targeted attack on a crowded place, another act of terror by the Russians,” Donetsk regional head Vadym Filashkin said in a Telegram post.
It was the second major strike on the town in almost a year. Last September, a Russian missile hit an outdoor market there, killing 17.
July saw the heaviest civilian casualties in Ukraine since October 2022, the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said Friday. Conflict-related violence killed at least 219 civilians and injured 1,018 in July, the mission said.
Russia declares an emergency in Kursk, under attack by Ukraine. 14 die in a Russian strike on a mall
Russia has declared a “federal-level” emergency in the Kursk region following a large-scale incursion from Ukraine and sent reinforcements there.
apnews.com
My apologies but the “ federal level emergency “ caught my eye.
Russia's 2020 nuclear doctrine sets out when its president would consider using a nuclear weapon: broadly as a response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction or conventional weapons "when the very existence of the state is put under threat".
Russia uses nukes and they are done.Russia declares an emergency in Kursk, under attack by Ukraine. 14 die in a Russian strike on a mall
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia declared a “federal-level” emergency in the Kursk region following a large-scale incursion from Ukraine and sent reinforcements there on Friday, four days after hundreds of Ukrainian troops poured across the border in what appeared to be Kyiv’s biggest attack on Russian soil since the war began.
Meanwhile, a Russian plane-launched missile slammed into a Ukrainian shopping mall in the middle of the day, killing at least 14 people and wounding 44 others, authorities said.
The mall in Kostiantynivka, in the eastern Donetsk region, is located in the town’s residential area. Thick black smoke rose above it after the strike.
“This is another targeted attack on a crowded place, another act of terror by the Russians,” Donetsk regional head Vadym Filashkin said in a Telegram post.
It was the second major strike on the town in almost a year. Last September, a Russian missile hit an outdoor market there, killing 17.
July saw the heaviest civilian casualties in Ukraine since October 2022, the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said Friday. Conflict-related violence killed at least 219 civilians and injured 1,018 in July, the mission said.
Russia declares an emergency in Kursk, under attack by Ukraine. 14 die in a Russian strike on a mall
Russia has declared a “federal-level” emergency in the Kursk region following a large-scale incursion from Ukraine and sent reinforcements there.
My apologies but the “ federal level emergency “ caught my eye.
Russia's 2020 nuclear doctrine sets out when its president would consider using a nuclear weapon: broadly as a response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction or conventional weapons "when the very existence of the state is put under threat".
That's all Lloyd Austin needs to tell them. Moscow will become melted glass & concrete.
