Interesting take on political realities from a Brit on the battlefront forum:
Just a quick thought: it’s often tempting and expedient to refer to “Europe” as a whole, particularly in the context of a conflict involving comparably large places such as Russia and the US. We all do it and it makes good sense. We do have to remember, though, that “Europe” has really never been a real thing, politically speaking, until extremely recently. Certainly there hasn’t been time yet for a solid, coherent “European” identity to take root in the mind of the public.
I know is not news to this forum but that means that the huge number of different cultures, languages, histories and political idiosyncrasies ultimately still holds sway in European microsocial circles. So, in the absence of an overall leader who can make the decision for us (and there are clearly not many who would be large and powerful enough to wield such influence over Europe’s multiple heavyweights - that’s one of the reasons why it’s always the US, not Germany or France for example) places like Ukraine will quickly recede from the priority list anywhere other than border nations to whom it has some historical relevance and familiarity. The UK and France still have vestiges of broader horizons to their thinking as a hangover from empire but otherwise it may be nearly impossible to coordinate strong action as a continent when ‘only’ Eastern Europe is directly threatened. That’s not because Europe is childish or otherwise lacking in any way that everywhere else isn’t, too; it’s the way things work when ‘the people’ hold power. Russia is different because it’s run and coordinated by and in the interests of an oppressive tyrant. The US can sometimes act in a coordinated fashion while wielding the power and resources of almost a whole continent because they are a recent ex-colonial entity who still have strong roots in a narrow, relatively singular political background but, even then, the global view regularly falls apart when the population is effectively unsettled and the American people decide that whatever-it-is they see in Trump means more to them than what is actually happening in the world. Criticising them for electing Trump is the same as criticising “Europe” for failing to make a strong and consistent political decision regarding a war on “its” eastern border is the same as criticising the Native American nations for not uniting and throwing out European colonialists a few centuries ago: It makes sense from a macro point of view but makes no sense whatsoever at the micro level where real world politics actually takes place.
tl;dr: “Europe” as a real, meaningful political entity and identity doesn’t exist (yet). “Europe” therefore almost certainly won’t act as strongly and coherently as we’d like wrt Ukraine. The dice will roll in 30+ countries and, if we’re lucky, a meaningful majority will keep supporting them. It’s much more likely that we’ll end up with an unsatisfactory melange of half measures and good intentions driven by each national populace’s perceived ‘real’ concerns and capabilities. Let’s manage our expectations accordingly.
A related thought: as far as I can see European and even American support to Ukraine has been basically as strong as it actually possibly could have been throughout (and even immediately prior to) this war. The US and multiple European polities have visibly run themselves aground over the least few years over issues relating at least superficially to Ukrainian aid. It might not have been enough to achieve an idealistic ‘quick win’ or to prevent Russia (remember them? The ones actually to blame for this whole f***fest?) from causing untold trauma to the Ukrainian people but I see precious little evidence to say that western governments really, truly could have made more support work. Few western populations are clamouring publicly for more Ukrainian support. Several political voices are speaking out against it. That is a real influence on what western governments can do.
Hopefully what they (we) actually do is enough, for Ukraine and us all.
/soapbox