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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

From a person who only follows the war casually. Is it safe to say Putin has staked his regime on Ukraine. If so, can’t see any reasonable peace deal Putin can take. Without essentially ending his reign.
It a lot of it looks similar to WWI. With each side taking turns grabbing some land from the other.
Think in a lot of ways Russia has become China’s proxy. Would be nice if someone can get that though to Donald.
 
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tumorboy said:
From a person who only follows the war casually. Is it safe to say Putin has staked his regime on Ukraine. If so, can’t see any reasonable peace deal Putin can take. Without essentially ending his reign.
It a lot of it looks similar to WWI. With each side taking turns grabbing some land from the other.
Think in a lot of ways Russia has become China’s proxy. Would be nice if someone can get that though to Donald.
Click to expand...
I guess I'm not sure about China - I don't think China has sold/given Russia military hardware. It will be interesting what 2025 brings. Hopefully a collapse of Russia.
 
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Tenacious E said:
I guess I'm not sure about China - I don't think China has sold/given Russia military hardware. It will be interesting what 2025 brings. Hopefully a collapse of Russia.
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It’s an East vs West thing to me now. North Korea, Iran, China, and Russia are all heavily tied together in military and economic interests. China to me is the strongest of these countries by a landslide. North Korea is only in Ukraine because China allows it. Iran is most likely allowed to help because China allows it. It looks like a proxy war from their end to me.
 
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tumorboy said:
From a person who only follows the war casually. Is it safe to say Putin has staked his regime on Ukraine. If so, can’t see any reasonable peace deal Putin can take. Without essentially ending his reign.
It a lot of it looks similar to WWI. With each side taking turns grabbing some land from the other.
Think in a lot of ways Russia has become China’s proxy. Would be nice if someone can get that though to Donald.
Click to expand...
It's true he is all in on Ukraine, but he is still in a rock and a hard place with the war. Does his reign continue by staying in the war but ruining their economy? The currency has dropped to 105 Rubles to 1 Dollar, their inflation is close to 10% and interest rates at over 20%. What have they gained? A few square miles of trees and fields and destroyed cites. Ukraine is only closure to the west, they have lost suppling Europe with Russian oil/gas, their standing as a military power is over. At some point the enemy from within will take him out over the failure of all these things, not the failure of the battlefield. Putin at some point will have to stop the bleeding. For sure China is the benefactor, they are getting discounted oil/gas from Russia since they are limited in buyers, while the west funnels trillions into the war effort. China is taking detailed notes on Russian's invasion and applying them to their plans for Taiwan.
 
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tumorboy said:
It’s an East vs West thing to me now. North Korea, Iran, China, and Russia are all heavily tied together in military and economic interests. China to me is the strongest of these countries by a landslide. North Korea is only in Ukraine because China allows it. Iran is most likely allowed to help because China allows it. It looks like a proxy war from their end to me.
Click to expand...
That would be pretty humiliating for Russia to become another country's proxy. Similarly humiliating that even with help Russia still cannot win while going against our JV equipment. Ukraine is fighting with our outdated and stripped down surplus tanks and bradleys, and a handful of f16s.
 
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Bonerfarts said:
It's true he is all in on Ukraine, but he is still in a rock and a hard place with the war. Does his reign continue by staying in the war but ruining their economy? The currency has dropped to 105 Rubles to 1 Dollar, their inflation is close to 10% and interest rates at over 20%. What have they gained? A few square miles of trees and fields and destroyed cites. Ukraine is only closure to the west, they have lost suppling Europe with Russian oil/gas, their standing as a military power is over. At some point the enemy from within will take him out over the failure of all these things, not the failure of the battlefield. Putin at some point will have to stop the bleeding. For sure China is the benefactor, they are getting discounted oil/gas from Russia since they are limited in buyers, while the west funnels trillions into the war effort. China is taking detailed notes on Russian's invasion and applying them to their plans for Taiwan.
Click to expand...
As I said he’s full tilt here. I’m not seeing a peace deal that he can accept that doesn’t essentially end him. The economic fallout is long term and doesn’t get better with a cease fire for a decade.
 
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Tenacious E said:
That would be pretty humiliating for Russia to become another country's proxy. Similarly humiliating that even with help Russia still cannot win while going against our JV equipment. Ukraine is fighting with our outdated and stripped down surplus tanks and bradleys, and a handful of f16s.
Click to expand...
Also if that pipeline gets built through Syria. They are then essentially beholden to China economically on the one thing they sell. Giving up Syria and hoping it doesn’t make a long term deal with the West is huge for their economic independence.
 
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tumorboy said:
As I said he’s full tilt here. I’m not seeing a peace deal that he can accept that doesn’t essentially end him. The economic fallout is long term and doesn’t get better with a cease fire for a decade.
Click to expand...
Ukraine is also not going to agree to any ceasefire as long as Russia is in their territory, this just gives Russia more time to recoup and reload. Ukraine will want serious concessions and security guarantees.

A good listen if you have an hour.

 
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Bonerfarts said:
Ukraine is also not going to agree to any ceasefire as long as Russia is in their territory, this just gives Russia more time to recoup and reload. Ukraine will want serious concessions and security guarantees.

A good listen if you have an hour.

View embedded media
Click to expand...
agreed from their end what safety guarantees can Russia offer. Putin has never met a treaty he hasn’t ignored or attempted to ignore. The best case for a deal is a DMZ handled by British troops. And that wouldn’t be enough for me as a Ukrainian. If Ukraine gives up NATO. Then Russia needs to pay for that privilege. Reparations. Then continue to arm Ukraine to the teeth. If Russia doesn’t like that then NATO membership.
 
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tumorboy said:
agreed from their end what safety guarantees can Russia offer. Putin has never met a treaty he hasn’t ignored or attempted to ignore. The best case for a deal is a DMZ handled by British troops. And that wouldn’t be enough for me as a Ukrainian. If Ukraine gives up NATO. Then Russia needs to pay for that privilege. Reparations. Then continue to arm Ukraine to the teeth. If Russia doesn’t like that then NATO membership.
Click to expand...
If one of Russia's pretexts for this landgrab is western infringement, a deal will not involve parking Brits on Russia's doorstep. I am thinking this ends with the collapse of the government (or at least leadership) of either Russia or Ukraine.
 
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Tenacious E said:
If one of Russia's pretexts for this landgrab is western infringement, a deal will not involve parking Brits on Russia's doorstep. I am thinking this ends with the collapse of the government (or at least leadership) of either Russia or Ukraine.
Click to expand...
UN Troops aka the smurfs :).
 
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tumorboy said:
Is it weird that the West has essentially ignored North Korea being involved. Kim feels as if he’s screaming to be payed attention to.
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For this kind of war and in these numbers, they are pretty much irrelevant other than for eating bullets and drones that would otherwise kill Russians. Hopefully, footage of thousands of dead NK soldiers makes it back into NK.
 
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GgzEIQBaMAA094K
 
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Tenacious E said:
Hah. My alarm is set for 5:55 each weekday, unless something is going on requiring me to get up earlier. More often than I care for, the something going on is one or more of my dogs waking me up in the middle of the night to take them outside. Usually that is in the 2 or 3 o'clock hour, and I scroll a bit to settle back into bed, and hence, some weird posting times.
Click to expand...
I think someone is waking the dogs 🐕 up.
Maybe by some remote control device, so we can get the daily count post.
I’m not smart enough to know how to do that, but…
 
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lucas80 said:
Some NK soldiers are turning to alcohol as they realize they are only there to catch bullets for Russian soldiers.
www.newsweek.com

North Korean troops turn to alcohol as "fighting spirit" plummets

NATO has previously described the deployment of North Korean soldiers to Russia as a "significant escalation" in the conflict.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
Click to expand...

I posted probably 1000 pages ago, that Ukraine needs to fill fake Russian vodka bottles w/ methanol and drone-drop them along the main fronts....
 
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"Russians have never died from such music A selection of epic hits from the 95th Infantry Brigade of the 1st Infantry Division"



"Ukraine: The local military uses drones to carry drones #FPV close to targets, and then once they take off - it is extremely difficult for the Russians to intercept them"

 
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I've said this before, but I really don't know how the casualty numbers of dead orcs can possibly be estimated accurately when you see the mass destruction as in the previous post's video?


Just a massive amount of confusion/chaos and who may or may not have survived when they drop the drones.
 
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