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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

An example of silly Russian propaganda.
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"Russian energy sector is taking one hit after another: 2024 in review & 2025 outlookEnergy is the “cash cow” of the Russian economy. But over the past three years, the sanctions have done their job - what used to be a massive stream of income is experiencing a significant slowdown. For all sectors of Russian energy production but oil, 2024 was a year of falling profits, and 2025 promises to further diminish these key funding sources for Russia’s war machine.

Russian coal industry is in freefall. The EU’s total embargo has decimated exports, pushing companies toward bankruptcy and delaying salaries for months. In Kuzbass, one of the world’s largest coal-mining regions, workers have staged intermittent strikes, demanding long-overdue wages.Russian coal producers ended the year with a loss of about USD 770 million – due to a combination of ever-stricter sanctions, fall in exports to China, and logistical issues on the Russian Railways and naval transport. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting that the sector will keep shrinking in 2025 – by the most modest estimates, a 3% decrease can be expected.

Electricity generation is also under pressure. Despite official claims as recently as July 2024 that electricity exports to China would continue to grow, year-end reports revealed a decline, driven by rising domestic demand in the Russian Far East. Overall, profits in the electricity sector dropped by 42%. Looking ahead, the domestic situation is set to worsen in 2025, with electricity bills for Russian households expected to rise by at least 12%.

Oil and gas stand out as outliers in the broader picture of falling profitability. Despite sanctions, Russian oil trade recovered and was 56% higher year-on-year than in 2023 as of August. Overall Russia’s oil and gas industry showed very good profitability –over USD 41 billion as of Q3 2024. However, not everything was well in the “blood oil” kingdom:

The oil profits took a hit in October-November 2024, when the price of crude oil fell. Russia is very dependent on the high price of crude; Central Bank sees trouble if it falls below USD 60 per barrel, while a lower price at USD 40 could cripple the whole industry, as it would barely allow Russian production to break even. Trump’s campaign declarations, as well as troubles with OPEC+ deal, which risks falling apart, if realized, could create a very problematic scenario for Russian oil trade.

Oil refining, unlike crude oil production, is in crisis. Several companies have cut down on production due to a combination of factors – high cost of crude, sky-rocketing interest rates in Russia, as well as export restrictions. Some of them could face closures purely due to economic reasons. Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries also left their mark. The successful strikes on key infrastructure and sanctions-induced difficulties in repairs, as well as economic troubles, have led to a 21% decrease in profits for the sector, and this trend will persist in 2025.

The Jan 1 closure of gas transit through Ukraine will be a major hit for Russian gas sales. The EU was still the biggest importer of Russian pipeline gas in 2024, and Ukraine’s transit system was the main trade route; with the loss of a lion’s share the European market, the profits of Gazprom will plummet in 2025. Though the outlooks for Russian energy sector look somewhat bleak, without strict enforcement of sanctions and expansion of restrictions against the shadow fleet, Russia will still make do.


https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1878694399611179222/photo/1
 


#Russia is facing difficulties preserving its military assets in #Syria, according to #Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR).The aggressor state continues to transfer weapons and equipment from Syria to #Libya by air. Russian soldiers have reportedly been ordered to destroy all inoperable military vehicles requiring repair.Additionally, Russia is struggling to evacuate military assets by sea, as the new Syrian administration has barred Russian ships from entering the port of Tartus. The dry cargo ship Sparta and two landing ships, Ivan Gren and Alexander Otrakovsky, remain stranded in the outer roadstead.The Otrakovsky is reportedly experiencing technical issues, including a malfunctioning water desalination plant and fuel leaks from its second and third tanks.On January 9, Russian Rear Admiral Valery Varfolomeyev attempted to negotiate a resolution but was denied participation in the talks.

 


#Russia is facing difficulties preserving its military assets in #Syria, according to #Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR).The aggressor state continues to transfer weapons and equipment from Syria to #Libya by air. Russian soldiers have reportedly been ordered to destroy all inoperable military vehicles requiring repair.Additionally, Russia is struggling to evacuate military assets by sea, as the new Syrian administration has barred Russian ships from entering the port of Tartus. The dry cargo ship Sparta and two landing ships, Ivan Gren and Alexander Otrakovsky, remain stranded in the outer roadstead.The Otrakovsky is reportedly experiencing technical issues, including a malfunctioning water desalination plant and fuel leaks from its second and third tanks.On January 9, Russian Rear Admiral Valery Varfolomeyev attempted to negotiate a resolution but was denied participation in the talks.

I was just picturing orc assets moving to Libya and it seems like a Hail Mary. Unlike Syria, where land resupply and support were possible from various directions, there are really few “friendly” neighbors in Libya.
This would be a very “transactional” relationship and orc financial resources are getting a bit stretched.
Ya gotta think those stranded orc “assets” are getting a little uncomfortable.
 


"Three tankers carrying over 2 million barrels of Russian crude oil are floating off China's coast after they were hit by fresh U.S. sanctions last week, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 13.

The vessels are allegedly part of the so-called "shadow fleet," a group of tankers routinely used to evade sanctions targeting Russia's oil trade.

This development follows the U.S. and U.K.'s most extensive sanctions on Russia's oil sector, announced on Jan. 10. The measures target over 180 vessels in the shadow fleet, along with Russian oil companies and energy officials.

The Huihai Pacific, Mermar, and Olia, each carrying Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean (ESPO) crude from Russia's Kozmino port, have diverted from their planned ports in China. The Huihai Pacific, initially headed for Dongjiakou in Shandong province, is now offshore, while the Mermar and Olia, bound for Yantai, are sitting in the Yellow Sea.

Reuters reported on Jan. 8 that China's Shandong Port Group had prohibited U.S.-sanctioned tankers from accessing its ports in the eastern Chinese province." (more)

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-shadow-fleet-tankers-china/

 
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Wow!

"Russian Telegram channels report drone attacks on 12 regions of Russia last night with about 200 drones. Restrictions were imposed at the airports of Kazan, Kaluga, Saratov, Tambov, Penza, Nizhnekamsk and Ulyanovsk, and emergency blackouts were introduced in one of the settlements of Russia's Belgorod region.It is reported that the targets included factories producing weapons components and substances, oil refineries, oil depots, warehouses, and air defense facilities.What was hit:" (a lot more in link)




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Trump is a loser in life and he’s always known it. His entire adult life he’s gravitated towards jocks, celebrities and winners. The best hope for Ukraine with Trump is to convince them he can be a winner and hero by supporting them. And, as I’ve said before, throw him a parade. I guess at this point I wouldn’t blame Zelensky if he publicly lied about Biden after getting public support from Trump and the US in writing.
 
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