ADVERTISEMENT

This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

noleclone2 said:
@Nat AIgren @Clownhater @Warrior Poet31 suck on this:
I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik.

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

  1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
  2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
  3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
  4. The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.
  5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.
  6. The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.
  7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?
  8. The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
  9. The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.
  10. Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist.
  11. Turkish drones will become bestsellers.
  12. A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.
Click to expand...
Makes me wonder if our intelligence is telling Biden that Ukraine has a real shot here and that our best hand is to play it close to the vest and conservative.
 
  • Like
Reactions: billanole, PoopandBoogers, HawkMD and 7 others
l.todd said:
Makes me wonder if our intelligence is telling Biden that Ukraine has a real shot here and that our best hand is to play it close to the vest and conservative.
Click to expand...
I think so. I think Putin is in trouble AND the a huge chunk of army is close to quitting the battle field. The kill the supplies and officers strategy is working.
 
  • Like
Reactions: pink shizzle, 86Hawkeye, Joes Place and 2 others



200w.gif
 
  • Like
  • Love
Reactions: PoopandBoogers, HawkMD, Daggerfoot and 4 others
Jimmy McGill said:
I wish I could give some Caseys breakfast pizza to about 2 million Ukrainian and foreign fighters right now. That and some hot coffee or hot chocolate,.
Click to expand...

what kind did you get. Sausage, bacon. I don’t have Casey’s here in TX so I am a bit jealous of your breakfast.
 
TC Nole OX said:
View embedded media


View embedded media
Click to expand...
Russia uses WMD in Ukraine (biological or nuke) and it's ON

Erase them from the skies. We've got enough planes to overwhelm Ukrainian airspace and eliminate Russian air defenses and planes.

And I'm betting Putin is gonna do it, because we all know he's sent assassins with deadly poisons into Western countries already, along with using illegal/banned tactics in Syria.

That's the line here.
 
  • Like
Reactions: h-hawk
l.todd said:
Makes me wonder if our intelligence is telling Biden that Ukraine has a real shot here and that our best hand is to play it close to the vest and conservative.
Click to expand...
I don't know about conservative. I think we are providing Ukraine with loads of gear to fight Russia, and it's working.

I think a better way to describe it would be stay in the background and don't let it become about Russia vs. the US. That's what Putin wants. In fact, it's what he desperately needs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: seminole97, VodkaSam, funksouljon and 8 others
Seeing all the problems the Russians are having with outdated technology, lack of training, poor logistics, horrible communication systems...this is why I’ve never really minded our outrageous defense budget.

I mean, I don’t want to spend $800 for a hammer and yes, the F-35 is a boondoggle, but if we’re going to spend money this might be the best place to do it.

Anyone else share this thought?
 
  • Like
Reactions: HawkeyeShawn, VodkaSam, noleclone2 and 1 other person
Russia and it's citizens will be paying for Putin's stupidity for decades. Given his age, I doubt Vlad even cares. He's just a vain, self absorbed man.

And I agree that the WH is "slow playing" this a bit and likely has intel that Russian forces are divided. While it's painful to see the suffering and destruction, the longer this drags on, the more likely Ukraine survives.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Obviously Oblivious, Daggerfoot, Phenomenally Frantastic and 2 others
Formerly Rockymtnole said:
Seeing all the problems the Russians are having with outdated technology, lack of training, poor logistics, horrible communication systems...this is why I’ve never really minded our outrageous defense budget.

I mean, I don’t want to spend $800 for a hammer and yes, the F-35 is a boondoggle, but if we’re going to spend money this might be the best place to do it.

Anyone else share this thought?
Click to expand...
Yes. But all the great gear in the world only gets you so far. It comes down to the people using the gear being highly trained. Train to failure, learn, adjust, and train some more.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lucas80, torbee, MitchLL and 5 others
86Hawkeye said:
Yes. But all the great gear in the world only gets you so far. It comes down to the people using the gear being highly trained. Train to failure, learn, adjust, and train some more.
Click to expand...
Agree. No idea what training costs are as a part of the overall defense budget but it should be a big component.
I look at it like insurance - you hate to pay the premiums but want it to be there when you need it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: torbee, MitchLL and 86Hawkeye
MitchLL said:
Russia and it's citizens will be paying for Putin's stupidity for decades. Given his age, I doubt Vlad even cares. He's just a vain, self absorbed man.

And I agree that the WH is "slow playing" this a bit and likely has intel that Russian forces are divided. While it's painful to see the suffering and destruction, the longer this drags on, the more likely Ukraine survives.
Click to expand...
No, our defense spending is largely dictated by what politicians want built in their districts. The US should continue to endeavor for technical superiority, but we(US tax payers not employed or heavily invested in defense) are getting screwed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mustang_hawk, ParkerHawk, THE_DEVIL and 3 others
noleclone2 said:
@Nat AIgren @Clownhater @Warrior Poet31 suck on this:
I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik.

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

  1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
  2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
  3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
  4. The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.
  5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.
  6. The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.
  7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?
  8. The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
  9. The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.
  10. Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist.
  11. Turkish drones will become bestsellers.
  12. A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.
Click to expand...
This guy is a very good authority on these matters. His tweet was retweeted by @RadioFreeTom with comments.

This one is crucial:

"5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine."
 
  • Like
Reactions: DFSNOLE, win4jj, noleclone2 and 3 others
86Hawkeye said:
This guy is a very good authority on these matters. His tweet was retweeted by @RadioFreeTom with comments.

This one is crucial:

"5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine."
Click to expand...
Your post makes a lot of sense given the latest "threat" from Russia in regards to "supplying " Ukraine with weapons.

There's just so much going on behind the scenes we and the media don't know about, imo.
This is why it's almost comical to listen to right wing media criticism of the WH. I would bet they don't know 90% of what's happening at the Pentagon/WH.
Same with politicians like Ashley Hinson and Joni Ernst just looking for a camera.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: lucas80, Thunderlips71 and Phenomenally Frantastic
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

U

Like the Muslim-Hindu India migration of late 1940's, should ethnic Russians move east and Ukrainians move west in the Dombas east region of Ukraine?

Replies
3
Views
142
Off Topic
uihawk82
U
cigaretteman

Trump: Zelensky ‘has no cards,’ ‘shouldn’t be at meetings’ with Russia

Replies
160
Views
2K
Off Topic
RileyHawk
R
cigaretteman

U.S., Ukraine near deal to grant mineral rights to Washington

Replies
16
Views
360
Off Topic
gohawks50
gohawks50
U

Repub Rep Crenshaw with a ludicrous comment about Nato

Replies
16
Views
368
Off Topic
IIowaFarmBoy
I
cigaretteman

Putin Just Suffered a Huge Defeat

Replies
19
Views
966
Off Topic
Aardvark86
Aardvark86
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back