SIAP - the second part on possible strategy makes me feel a little better about my fears of Russian tank armies roaming central Ukraine.
James Rothwell
Thu, 7 April 2022, 11:20 am·6-min read
A house in Severodonetsk, in the Donbas region, burns after being hit by a Russian missile - Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images
Britain and its Nato allies agreed on Thursday night to supply "new and heavier" weapons to Ukraine after Kyiv pleaded for fresh armaments in "days not weeks".
Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, said alliance counterparts met in Brussels to agree to help the defenders upgrade their "Soviet-era equipment to Nato standard".
Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, confirmed Washington was looking at "new systems" to send.
"We're not going to let anything stand in the way of getting Ukrainians what they need," he said.
"We are looking across the board right now, not only at what we have provided ... [but] whether there are additional systems that would make a difference."
The European Union also announced it was ready to release €500 million (£416 million) to fund more arms.
The pledges came after Ukraine's foreign minister said a looming
battle against Russian forces in the east would be similar to Second World War-era combat.
As the Russian army prepared to launch
a major offensive in the Donbas region, Dmytro Kuleba warned that Moscow would commit more atrocities against civilians unless Kyiv's troops were supported with Western artillery, jets and air defence systems.
"Either you help us now – and I’m speaking about days, not weeks – or your help will come too late and many people will die, many civilians will lose their homes, many villages will be destroyed, exactly because this help came too late," he said on Thursday.
Mr Kuleba was referring to war crimes
committed by Russian forces before their withdrawal from around Kyiv, including the torture and execution of hundreds of civilians.
He said: "The battle for Donbas will remind you of the Second World War, with large operations manoeuvres, the involvement of thousands of tanks, armoured vehicles, planes, artillery. Russia has its plan, we have ours – and the outcome of this battle will be decided on the battlefield.”
"There is a significant battle yet ahead down in the south-east, down around the Donbas, Donetsk region where the Russians intend to mass forces and continue their assault," Gen Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said. "I think it is an open question right now how this ends."
Russians’ change of tack could favour Ukraine
By Dominic Nicholls, Defence and Security Editor
If the fight for Ukraine's eastern Donbas region does become like the Second World War, it may favour the Ukrainians.
Russian forces
repositioning from the north and around Kyiv will find a mostly rural area, ideal for armoured warfare and the intelligent application of extreme violence. Ukrainian forces know the geography and will use it to their advantage.
Bridges have been destroyed, channelling any advancing Russian columns to fixed routes that
favour counter-attacks.
The time taken to cover the distances involved will require the Russian air force to recommence operations in daylight – a boon to Ukrainian troops with shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles.
New weapons, gifted by the West, will be used to wear down Russia's attacking formations, long before they get into the close "contact battle" with the defenders.
Western officials said 29 of Moscow's original 125 battalion tactical groups have been rendered "not combat effective" because of the dogged Ukrainian resistance.
It means the fight to come in the east of the country could play to Ukraine's strengths if Kyiv's troops plan correctly. Ukraine will seek to use the 10 brigades dug deep
in the Donbas as an anvil upon which to smash the Russian invaders.
Just as they have done fighting the Russians in the north, Ukraine will employ the Western doctrine of the "manoeuvrist approach".
This is more than just using movement on the battlefield. It describes a nimble military mind, an ability to use initiative instead of constantly relying on orders and a willingness to do the unexpected and take risks.
In the north, Ukraine's armed forces had the confidence to allow Russian tank columns to pass, choosing instead to attack the logistic tails first then pick off the stranded vehicles.
Rather than meeting Russian strength head-on, they applied devastating military force at critical points, achieving results disproportionate to the numbers of troops involved.
The open spaces of the Donbas, away from urban areas populated by civilians and where Russia will have extended lines of vulnerable logistic elements, are ideal for these tactics. The distances are vast.
And where to put their all-important logistic tail that has proved so vulnerable to the Ukrainian anti-tank teams moving nimbly across the battlefield to strike at times and places of their choosing?
In July 1943, the German army launched a major armoured offensive, Operation Citadel, against the Soviet Union near this area of eastern Europe. The Germans were tired and stretched, fighting at the end of long and vulnerable lines of logistics, but still rolled the dice and decided to attack.
They lost the battle, never meaningfully advanced again – and eventually lost the war.
Britain and its Nato allies agreed on Thursday night to supply "new and heavier" weapons to Ukraine after Kyiv pleaded for fresh armaments in "days not weeks".
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