This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

[Herky T Hawk]

But the Soviets always had a poop navy. It was never going to make them a threat to invade the U.S.
Their big threat was being able to send out subs to interdict our transfer and resupply to Europe.

If the Russians had airfields in Nicaragua then we’d face an entirely different threat.
Miami, Atlanta and Houston would then sit under the same missile threat that Kiev, Odessa and Lviv enjoy.

Would probably mean they’d fix up Tyndall a bit quicker, and send in some more fighter squadrons to the panhandle at least, right?

How do we expect the Biden White House to react if Ortega does actually entertain Russian bases?

Monroe Doctrine. It was used in the Cuban Missile Crisis and would be used again.

 

[seminole97]

Monroe Doctrine. It was used in the Cuban Missile Crisis and would be used again.

I wouldn’t be surprised.
We try to take out leadership in the Americas for a lot less threatening reasons than that.

I also think you present the Monroe Doctrine in a very conventional and commonly understood sense (the Americas are our backyard, everyone else stay out!), when it was intended as an anti-colonial declaration.
To deter not governments in the Americas from inviting military alliances of their choosing with the world at large (we assert this is Ukraine’s right, but not Cuba’s), but former colonial powers in Europe from trying to re-assert their claims of dominion.

 

[86Hawkeye]

Trump was wrong about tons of things, and still is wrong today. But some of his complaints about NATO members have truth behind them. They knew that the USA would have their backs if things ever got bad like they had twice already, so they didn't fund their military "requirements" per the treaty.

And look where we are today, it seems that Germany would likely be not much more than a speed bump for a well prepared and equipped enemy Hell, Poland could probably have a good shot at rolling Germany right now if they wanted to. And Poland has half the population and a small fraction of Germany's GDP.

France then Poland appear to be the strongest European allies. Turkey I count as Asia.

 

[Jim Grizzly]

I wouldn’t be surprised.
We try to take out leadership in the Americas for a lot less threatening reasons than that.

I also think you present the Monroe Doctrine in a very conventional and commonly understood sense (the Americas are our backyard, everyone else stay out!), when it was intended as an anti-colonial declaration.
To deter not governments in the Americas from inviting military alliances of their choosing with the world at large (we assert this is Ukraine’s right, but not Cuba’s), but former colonial powers in Europe from trying to re-assert their claims of dominion.

You keep referencing Cuba, which was during a cold war and in no way a comperable situation to a defensive alliance aa NATO. Stop giving us oranges and telling us they are apples.

 

[seminole97]

You keep referencing Cuba, which was during a cold war and in no way a comperable situation to a defensive alliance aa NATO. Stop giving us oranges and telling us they are apples.

You think we're not in a cold war right now?
It's 2022 and we're in a proxy war with the Moscow government.
60 years later tell me how different it is now.

Who was the NATO member being defended by the alliance when Clinton violated the war power resolution and bombed Serbia for 68 days without Congressional authorization?

If you didn't think the intervention and ethnic partition of Serbia was NATO shedding the 'defensive alliance' purpose, what was the intervention to help jihadists overthrow Gaddafi? No NATO member was attacked, it was just a regime change end run on the U.N. under the auspices (rebuked as lies by the UK Parliament in investigation afterwards of the justifications) protecting the people in a civil war.

You can't look at those two interventions by NATO and honestly say they'd never do it again.
Someone has posted the map on here before of all the different ethnic groups that exist in Russia today.
The idea that Erdogan's Turkey could stir up a separatists movement isn't far fetched.
If NATO is parked in Ukraine, are they more or less likely to intervene if the Moscow government tries to crush a rebellion as brutally as we have?

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

 

[DFSNOLE]

 

[TC Nole OX]

 

[thewop]

How do we expect the Biden White House to react if Ortega does actually entertain Russian bases?

1. Evacuate all Nicaraguans to the US
2. Give them all homes and basic income so they don't have the burden of working hanging over their heads.
3. Send a sternly worded letter (via certified international mail) to Putin letting him know we expect him to play nice.

To clear up any doubt, we the people will fund 1 and 2.

Back to the war thread! I agree that was an interesting question, let's hope we never know the answer.

 

[mustang_hawk]

But the Soviets always had a poop navy. It was never going to make them a threat to invade the U.S.
Their big threat was being able to send out subs to interdict our transfer and resupply to Europe.

If the Russians had airfields in Nicaragua then we’d face an entirely different threat.
Miami, Atlanta and Houston would then sit under the same missile threat that Kiev, Odessa and Lviv enjoy.

Would probably mean they’d fix up Tyndall a bit quicker, and send in some more fighter squadrons to the panhandle at least, right?

How do we expect the Biden White House to react if Ortega does actually entertain Russian bases?

Without the airbases in Europe the only way to have assets close by would be seaborne. How would the US have replaced the ground troops stationed at permanent bases in Europe?

The US could have just let Europe solve its own problems and pretend that what happens there doesn’t affect us. Then we’d be back to 1914 and 1939 all over again.

 

[seminole97]

Without the airbases in Europe the only way to have assets close by would be seaborne. How would the US have replaced the ground troops stationed at permanent bases in Europe?

Why replace them instead of just not have them?
Want to have them as a buffer?

The US could have just let Europe solve its own problems and pretend that what happens there doesn’t affect us. Then we’d be back to 1914 and 1939 all over again.

Europeans need some American Exceptionalism to keep’em straight?
Imagine if we hadn’t intervened to save the British and French Empires of 1914. Fun counterfactual road with the course of the Russian revolution behind the Brest-Litovsk treaty lines. Imagine communism being something known only to the Asiatic Ural backwaters and no grievance to build a Nazi party around in Germany.
Why might have we gone back in ‘41 if we never went in ‘17?

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Some very close friends of ours taught on base in Germany starting in the early 80’s, but they lived off base. He was of German heritage and they befriended some locals over time. He said that after several beers the old guys would bust out with Deutschland Uber Alles - just like old times.

True

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Without the airbases in Europe the only way to have assets close by would be seaborne. How would the US have replaced the ground troops stationed at permanent bases in Europe?

Agree...

The last two Air Bases we have there...Ramstein and Spangdahlem are basically logistical hubs for Africa/Europe/Middle east. Spangdahlem added a AMC ramp about 20 years ago to pick up the slack for Rhein Main's closure that shared runways with Frankfurt Airport.

Without those two bases we basically would have a difficult time supporting anything in those regions.

 

[seminole97]

But what the NYT piece does is passing the buck from the intelligence community to president Zelensky of Ukraine: "He did not inform us about the bad position his country was in."

It is cover your ass time and Zelensky prominence in the 'west' makes it possible to blame him personally for the outcome of the war.

On May 31 the Council of Foreign Relations, with its head Richard Haass, had a public discussion about the state of the war in Ukraine. One of the participants was the former Deputy Commander of the United States European Command Stephen M. Twitty. He knows and makes absolutely clear where the war stands:

TWITTY: I think the war in the Donbas is starting to turn to the Russians’ favor, and when you take a look at—and I’m particularly talking about the eastern part of the Donbas—the Russians have transitioned from trying to pour all their combat power into the Donbas to obliterating every single town. Whether it be Rubizhne, Lyman, they’re working now on Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk as well, they’re obliterating these particular towns, and that’s how they’re making their headway. They’re not putting a bunch of combat power with infantry forces and tanks in there. They’ve taken all their artillery and they’re treating it like Mariupol and that’s how they’re making their headway.So they’re starting to make some headway in the eastern Donbas and so we have to watch that one closely.
HAASS: ... Why don’t we reverse [our policies]? General Twitty, is there something that the president said? Are things we’re not doing that we should be doing? Is there things that you would recommend at this point?
TWITTY: Well, as I take a look at this, you know, Secretary Austin came out that we’re going to weaken Russia. We have not really defined what weaken means, because if you take a look at the Ukrainians right now, I take a strong belief in Colin Powell’s doctrine—you overwhelm a particular enemy with force. And right now, when you take a look at Ukraine and you take a look at Russia, they’re about one to one. The only difference is Russia has a heck of a lot of combat power than the Ukrainians.
And so there’s no way that the Ukrainians will ever destroy or defeat the Russians, and so we got to really figure out what does weaken mean in the end state here. And I will also tell you, Richard, there’s no way that the Ukrainians will ever have enough combat power to kick the Russians out of Ukraine as well, and so what does that look like in the end game.

There follows some discussion with other participants about potential outcomes the U.S. would like to see, like Ukraine in the state that it was in before 2014.

Twitty then explains why those ideas are all unrealistic and that what is needed instead are immediate negotiations:

TWITTY: Yeah. So I got a couple of things for you, Richard. So I want to go back to what you said. Pre-2014—I want you to think about that one, because I’ve had time to think about it hearing others here, and what I will tell you, Richard, you know, I learned from the National War College there’s something called ends, ways, and means.
So if that’s your end state—pre-2014—then I’m interested to hear the ways and the means because, from a military standpoint, if that’s the way then the means would be the Ukrainians lack, again, the ability to pull that off to pre-2014. They just lack that ability. They don’t have the combat power.
And I also want to remind you we hear a lot about Russian casualties and Russian losses. We hear very little about Ukrainian losses, and keep in mind they’re losing soldiers throughout this war as well. They started at approximately two hundred thousand. Who knows where they are today?
And so it’s hard to recruit and maintain that level of professionalism in that military. So that’s my first point. The end, ways, and means, they lack that, to be able to go back to the pre-2014.
The second point that I would make is, you know, as you look at the DIME—diplomatic, informational, military, and economic—we’re woefully lacking on the diplomatic piece of this. If you notice, there’s no diplomacy going on at all to trying to get to some type of negotiations. And I don’t think that we can lead that, given where Putin thinks about us.
But if you sit back and think about those that could possibly be a part of this negotiation team, you know, you have the—two of them are in—that I’m going to list are in NATO. One is President Orbán out of Hungary. Perhaps he can help out in the negotiation effort. The other one is President Erdoğan of Turkey. Longtime friends of President Putin, although some view that relationship as transactional. I don’t know. Let’s put it to the test and see.

Someone objects and makes a case for 'giving the Ukraine more time' by pushing more weapons to them. Twitty dismantles that argument:

TWITTY: —Charlie, I agree 100 percent. But I will tell you, when you look at time, the Ukrainians have to go into negotiations with the upper hand at a position of strength, and so right now they are at a position of strength. The more this war goes on we never know if that’s going to wane, and then they will lack the ability to go to the bargaining table at a position of strength and may lose more than they intended, and so let’s keep that in mind as well.

There it is. The professional military and intelligence people know exactly what is up. The Ukraine is already in a very bad situation and from here on it can only get worse. They expect that the Ukrainian frontline will break down. I am sure they are urging, like Twitty does above, for immediate negotiations using whatever third party is available.

It is the White House for which such an outcome is not what it had hoped to achieve. It can in fact not allow it. It is currently blocking any negotiations because admitting to a loss in Ukraine would give the Republicans more ammunition to damage Biden.

 

[seminole97]

Without those two bases we basically would have a difficult time supporting anything in those regions.

The Empire needs ‘coaling stations’.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

The Empire needs ‘coaling stations’.

One way to look at it....pretty applicable actually.

Read a book a while back about the Imperial German light cruise Emden during WW1.

Basically went on commerce raiding for a couple months in the Indian Ocean and South Atlantic. Main hurdle was finding places to coal up (British/French controlled most locations) ....had turn burn "dirty coal" that fouled up the boilers.

 

[goldmom]

Our 75 plus year presence in Germany has become a crutch for them and for Western Europe but at the moment that discussion might be best saved for another time.
Right now it is important to focus on pressing Scholz to step out from behind the mindset Merkel fostered - and for which she still insists she doesn’t regret-and force the Germans to step into the new reality.

 

[bunsen82]

You think we're not in a cold war right now?
It's 2022 and we're in a proxy war with the Moscow government.
60 years later tell me how different it is now.

Who was the NATO member being defended by the alliance when Clinton violated the war power resolution and bombed Serbia for 68 days without Congressional authorization?

If you didn't think the intervention and ethnic partition of Serbia was NATO shedding the 'defensive alliance' purpose, what was the intervention to help jihadists overthrow Gaddafi? No NATO member was attacked, it was just a regime change end run on the U.N. under the auspices (rebuked as lies by the UK Parliament in investigation afterwards of the justifications) protecting the people in a civil war.

You can't look at those two interventions by NATO and honestly say they'd never do it again.
Someone has posted the map on here before of all the different ethnic groups that exist in Russia today.
The idea that Erdogan's Turkey could stir up a separatists movement isn't far fetched.
If NATO is parked in Ukraine, are they more or less likely to intervene if the Moscow government tries to crush a rebellion as brutally as we have?

How can you be in a cold war when one party is drastically inferior to another? This isn't an arms race now, although there is a bit of a Nuclear risk, but if the upkeep on the nukes is anything like they have done on their equipment, I would sure hate to be shooting those off, they may detonate on russia soil.

 

[seminole97]

Right now it is important to focus on pressing Scholz to step out from behind the mindset Merkel fostered - and for which she still insists she doesn’t regret-and force the Germans to step into the new reality.

My sense is the Germans are hoping this wraps up before they get themselves more deeply committed.
Another aspect of delaying deliveries is you are basically offering them not the chance to increase firepower (perhaps decisively) now, but the prospect of replacing losses at some point in the future to at least maintain the relative strength they have now.
Those are different bargaining positions.

 

[seminole97]

How can you be in a cold war when one party is drastically inferior to another? This isn't an arms race now,

The money the DoD is requesting for hypersonic weapons and intermediate missiles allowed now suggest to me otherwise.

although there is a bit of a Nuclear risk, but if the upkeep on the nukes is anything like they have done on their equipment, I would sure hate to be shooting those off, they may detonate on russia soil.

A ‘bit of a Nuclear risk’ sounds a lot like being a ‘little bit pregnant’.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Russians still grinding along.

That salient the Ukrainians have in Luhansk is starting to look pretty vulnerable. Hope they know when to pull out if need be....

Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia

As Russian forces make slow progress in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine's military stages a surprise cross-border attack.

www.bbc.com

 

[bunsen82]

But what the NYT piece does is passing the buck from the intelligence community to president Zelensky of Ukraine: "He did not inform us about the bad position his country was in."

It is cover your ass time and Zelensky prominence in the 'west' makes it possible to blame him personally for the outcome of the war.

On May 31 the Council of Foreign Relations, with its head Richard Haass, had a public discussion about the state of the war in Ukraine. One of the participants was the former Deputy Commander of the United States European Command Stephen M. Twitty. He knows and makes absolutely clear where the war stands:


There follows some discussion with other participants about potential outcomes the U.S. would like to see, like Ukraine in the state that it was in before 2014.

Twitty then explains why those ideas are all unrealistic and that what is needed instead are immediate negotiations:


Someone objects and makes a case for 'giving the Ukraine more time' by pushing more weapons to them. Twitty dismantles that argument:


There it is. The professional military and intelligence people know exactly what is up. The Ukraine is already in a very bad situation and from here on it can only get worse. They expect that the Ukrainian frontline will break down. I am sure they are urging, like Twitty does above, for immediate negotiations using whatever third party is available.

It is the White House for which such an outcome is not what it had hoped to achieve. It can in fact not allow it. It is currently blocking any negotiations because admitting to a loss in Ukraine would give the Republicans more ammunition to damage Biden.

There is more opinions than just Twitty. There were also those who thought Ukraine would fold after 3 days, 2 weeks, 1 month, 2 months, now 3 months. I don't think Russia is really winning by destroying towns - what are they gaining other than removing any one who is in opposition??? Then you are talking about continued war crimes by just destroying whole towns and cities. So he says we should overwhelm them. We can do that at any point and we have chosen not too. If it is 1 to 1 on military, but Ukraine has superior weapons, I can tell you what the ultimate outcome will be it is not that difficult to figure it out. Ukraine does need to someone get more army trained or to the front line. I am not sure what they can do on that front.

 

[bunsen82]

The money the DoD is requesting for hypersonic weapons and intermediate missiles allowed now suggest to me otherwise.

A ‘bit of a Nuclear risk’ sounds a lot like being a ‘little bit pregnant’.

Some would say we have always been in a nuclear risk seminole wouldn't you agree. Russia continues to float that they would use nukes but continue to show it is all hot air.

 

[seminole97]

One way to look at it....pretty applicable actually.

Read a book a while back about the Imperial German light cruise Emden during WW1.

Basically went on commerce raiding for a couple months in the Indian Ocean and South Atlantic. Main hurdle was finding places to coal up (British/French controlled most locations) ....had turn burn "dirty coal" that fouled up the boilers.

Link
The German Navy in World War II found a clever but risky method of extending their submarine patrols by building “milk cows,” specialized submarines covered in fuel tanks to refuel their brethren, and drawing the fire of American destroyer and planes.

 

[kc78]

Russians still grinding along.

That salient the Ukrainians have in Luhansk is starting to look pretty vulnerable. Hope they know when to pull out if need be....

Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia

As Russian forces make slow progress in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine's military stages a surprise cross-border attack.

www.bbc.com

So far they have done pretty good on pulling out of areas when it seems wise. They're in this for the long haul and fighting the long haul against superior numbers means you don't allow yourself to get overwhelmed. You keep bleeding them and then back away and keep bleeding until they've run dry.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

So far they have done pretty good on pulling out of areas when it seems wise. They're in this for the long haul and fighting the long haul against superior numbers means you don't allow yourself to get overwhelmed. You keep bleeding them and then back away and keep bleeding until they've run dry.

Ukrainians have been bleeding as well....

200 a day...

Ukrainian casualties: Kyiv losing up to 200 troops a day - Zelensky aide

Mykhaylo Podolyak told the BBC that Ukraine needs more weapons to match Russia's firepower.

www.bbc.com

 

[Tenacious E]

General Staff: Entire Russian unit refuses to take part in hostilities after suffering losses in Kharkiv Oblast

ANASTASIIA KALATUR - FRIDAY, 10 JUNE 2022, 06:53 The personnel of a motor rifle brigade from the 1st Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces has refused to continue to take part in the war in Ukraine after suffering losses during fighting with the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kharkiv Oblast.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Tenacious E]

Ukrainians have been bleeding as well....

200 a day...

Ukrainian casualties: Kyiv losing up to 200 troops a day - Zelensky aide

Mykhaylo Podolyak told the BBC that Ukraine needs more weapons to match Russia's firepower.

www.bbc.com

Says 100 to 200, and then says 100. But, that is still a lot of troops.

 

[mustang_hawk]

Why replace them instead of just not have them?
Want to have them as a buffer?


Europeans need some American Exceptionalism to keep’em straight?
Imagine if we hadn’t intervened to save the British and French Empires of 1914. Fun counterfactual road with the course of the Russian revolution behind the Brest-Litovsk treaty lines. Imagine communism being something known only to the Asiatic Ural backwaters and no grievance to build a Nazi party around in Germany.
Why might have we gone back in ‘41 if we never went in ‘17?

You’re right, Communism was the only reason the Nazis came to power. And whatever happens in Europe has no effect on us whatsoever.

 

[Tenacious E]

US general says Elon Musk's Starlink has 'totally destroyed Putin's information campaign'

The satellite-internet service is used to plan missions and fight Russian misinformation, as well as keep soldiers in touch with family, per Politico.

www.yahoo.com

 

[86Hawkeye]

View embedded media

View embedded media

Germany and Austria for sure are two.

 

[seminole97]

You’re right, Communism was the only reason the Nazis came to power. And whatever happens in Europe has no effect on us whatsoever.

I’d say the humiliating terms of the peace did more drive Nazis to power. Communism was just the bonus we got when the Germans waved Lenin through to Russia to foment a revolution and shore up their Eastern flank with the Americans getting involved.

No one has ever stated that Europe’s wars have ‘no effect on us whatsoever’. But that isn’t the same are thinking we need to participate in Europe’s wars.

 

[86Hawkeye]

Beautiful!

 

[MitchLL]

Apparently is was more than just a “MAGA” talking point.

The argument has always been that Trump was Putin's puppet to divide NATO.

Your comments don't disprove it.

 

[86Hawkeye]

It’s good to keep in mind who created who.

 

[86Hawkeye]

Ukrainians have been bleeding as well....

200 a day...

Ukrainian casualties: Kyiv losing up to 200 troops a day - Zelensky aide

Mykhaylo Podolyak told the BBC that Ukraine needs more weapons to match Russia's firepower.

www.bbc.com

Russia has about 100,000 in theatre and Ukraine has about 700,000.

 

[86Hawkeye]

Ouch!