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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

Russia has about 100,000 in theatre and Ukraine has about 700,000.
I've seen those figures a few times. Have a hard time believing them but if true....it's just a matter of time. Does Ukraine have that time though, that's the question.

By that I mean...when will pressure to negotiate come from more than just France and Germany....

The list will grow the longer this goes on, economies start tanking and food/energy shortages start causes very serious problems.
 
Anybody else notice the Ukraine war has basically moved to "page 2" in the media?
Well, the fighting has essentially become a stalemate so now we are in the "who can wait it out longer" phase. How long will the west continue sending weapons to Ukraine vs. how long will Russia continue to sustain astronomical losses for this. Since Putin doesn't give a shit about troop losses, Russia has the edge on this.
 
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Why replace them instead of just not have them?
Want to have them as a buffer?


Europeans need some American Exceptionalism to keep’em straight?
Imagine if we hadn’t intervened to save the British and French Empires of 1914. Fun counterfactual road with the course of the Russian revolution behind the Brest-Litovsk treaty lines. Imagine communism being something known only to the Asiatic Ural backwaters and no grievance to build a Nazi party around in Germany.
Why might have we gone back in ‘41 if we never went in ‘17?

That hypothetical could go the other way. Two long time empires being humilated in Britain and France. Who is to say how they would have reacted with a loss in WWI?

By the way, you get some crap on here but I appreciate your counterpoints. Some certainly make me think twice.
 
Agree...

The last two Air Bases we have there...Ramstein and Spangdahlem are basically logistical hubs for Africa/Europe/Middle east. Spangdahlem added a AMC ramp about 20 years ago to pick up the slack for Rhein Main's closure that shared runways with Frankfurt Airport.

Without those two bases we basically would have a difficult time supporting anything in those regions.
This is why I find it interesting that former Soviet era bases in Romania and Poland are being built up. They are now the front lines. There are two bases in Greece that are being built up, one on Crete to be precise, and I read an article a few weeks ago that Albania is offering up a former submarine base, and a massive air base that the Soviets built back in the 50s to be refurbished.
 
Well, the fighting has essentially become a stalemate so now we are in the "who can wait it out longer" phase. How long will the west continue sending weapons to Ukraine vs. how long will Russia continue to sustain astronomical losses for this. Since Putin doesn't give a shit about troop losses, Russia has the edge on this.
Plus the Shooting issues and the capitol riot committee's investigation news going on now.
 
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I've seen those figures a few times. Have a hard time believing them but if true....it's just a matter of time. Does Ukraine have that time though, that's the question.

By that I mean...when will pressure to negotiate come from more than just France and Germany....

The list will grow the longer this goes on, economies start tanking and food/energy shortages start causes very serious problems.
As long as the US and UK don’t push them to negotiate then Ukraine has time.

I don’t see that happening any time soon.
 
Well, the fighting has essentially become a stalemate so now we are in the "who can wait it out longer" phase. How long will the west continue sending weapons to Ukraine vs. how long will Russia continue to sustain astronomical losses for this. Since Putin doesn't give a shit about troop losses, Russia has the edge on this.
I disagree. In trying to take more territory in the north, Russia is going to lose more important territory in the south (Kherson) and Mykolaiv).

The military experts I follow have expected this rough period and also expect things to turn for Ukraine in the next month or two. Russia’s Donbas offensive will culminate soon.
 
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This is why I find it interesting that former Soviet era bases in Romania and Poland are being built up. They are now the front lines. There are two bases in Greece that are being built up, one on Crete to be precise, and I read an article a few weeks ago that Albania is offering up a former submarine base, and a massive air base that the Soviets built back in the 50s to be refurbished.
Funny you mention that. Erdogan did too:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday accused Greece of militarizing its islands in the Aegean Sea with an eye toward threatening Turkey, in but the latest salvo in a series of tit-for-tat accusations between the two NATO members. Erdogan urged immediate demilitarization of the islands, stressing Turkey will never relinquish its "rights" in the Aegean Sea, statements which come weeks after he condemned Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis for lobbying the White House to block impending US F-16 sales to Ankara.

The fresh words also came on the final day of Turkey's multi-national "Efes-2022" military drill, centered on the coastal city of Izmir. "We invite Greece to stop arming the islands that have non-military status and to act in accordance with international agreements," Erdogan said. "I’m not joking, I’m speaking seriously. This nation is determined."

"I warn Greece to avoid dreams, acts and statements that will result in regret. Come to your senses," he said in a televised speech related to the drills. "Turkey will not renounce its rights in the Aegean and will not back down from using rights that are established by international agreements when it comes to arming islands," he added.

Erdogan further vowed that Turkey would continue its controversial hydrocarbons exploration of the region, which Greece, Cyprus, and some EU countries like France have condemned as violating Greek and Cypriot territorial waters. Erdogan claimed that Greece is violating the1923 Treaty of Lausanne and the 1947 Paris Treaty. He declared that Greece was previously given the islands on condition that they'd remain demilitarized.

"The agreements are there but Greece is violating them. It’s arming them. If Greece does not stop this violation, the sovereignty of the islands will be brought up for discussion," he said. "It’s that clear. You will abide by the agreements." In questioning the "sovereignty of the islands," Erdogan appeared to suggest Turkish military intervention is on the table, also given he uttered the veiled threat on the occasion of major Turkish-led military exercises.

Greece responded by saying Turkey has long deliberately misinterpreted and misrepresented the content of the historic treaties, and further that Ankara's standing threat of war justifies that Greece take steps to defend itself. As The Associated Press reports:

In Athens, Greek government spokesman Giannis Oikonomou said Greece was dealing with Turkish "provocations" with "calm and determination."
"It is clear to everyone that our country has upgraded its geostrategic and geopolitical footprint as well as its deterrent capacity to be able at any time to defend its national sovereignty and sovereign rights," he said.
Erdogan also in the Thursday speech took the opportunity to address Western allies, telling them to stay out of the way of "legitimate" security operations - in reference to planned anti-Kurdish military action by Turkey in the south, on the other side of the Syrian border.

"We will never allow the establishment of terror corridors along our country’s borders, and we will definitely complete the missing parts of our security zone," the Turkish leader said in reference to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, and its Syrian extension the YPG.

Erdogan continued: "We hope that none of our real allies and friends will oppose our legitimate security concerns." However, Europe and the US have consistently stook against him on Syrian cross-border operations. Washington has repeatedly told Ankara that US forces backing Syrian Kurdish groups could come under threat in Turkish operations, warning against any new push inside Syrian territory. At the same time Turkey has held a steady line blocking Finland and Sweden's ascension into NATO
.
 
Well, the fighting has essentially become a stalemate so now we are in the "who can wait it out longer" phase. How long will the west continue sending weapons to Ukraine vs. how long will Russia continue to sustain astronomical losses for this. Since Putin doesn't give a shit about troop losses, Russia has the edge on this.
That’s my pessimistic outlook as well
 
This is why I find it interesting that former Soviet era bases in Romania and Poland are being built up. They are now the front lines. There are two bases in Greece that are being built up, one on Crete to be precise, and I read an article a few weeks ago that Albania is offering up a former submarine base, and a massive air base that the Soviets built back in the 50s to be refurbished.
Need those for fighter aircraft….

The two German bases have the facilities for Heavy’s and back shop facilities for engine/equipment repair. Sustainability stuff….

Spangdahlem still has a squadron of F-16’s but the talk for a few years now has been a move to Poland.
 
I've seen those figures a few times. Have a hard time believing them but if true....it's just a matter of time. Does Ukraine have that time though, that's the question.

By that I mean...when will pressure to negotiate come from more than just France and Germany....

The list will grow the longer this goes on, economies start tanking and food/energy shortages start causes very serious problems.
I don't think it will until either the war meets a complete stalemate with no obvious way for Ukraine to retake territory or Russia to advance. It would require both sides to realize that and agree with it as well.

OR

If Trump and the GOP come back to power. The Q idiots will turn on Ukraine faster than you can spell Qanon.
 
I don't think it will until either the war meets a complete stalemate with no obvious way for Ukraine to retake territory or Russia to advance. It would require both sides to realize that and agree with it as well.

OR

If Trump and the GOP come back to power. The Q idiots will turn on Ukraine faster than you can spell Qanon.
The GOP has voted overwhelmingly to arm Ukraine, but nice try.
 
I don't think it will until either the war meets a complete stalemate with no obvious way for Ukraine to retake territory or Russia to advance. It would require both sides to realize that and agree with it as well.

OR

If Trump and the GOP come back to power. The Q idiots will turn on Ukraine faster than you can spell Qanon.
You, sir, have a one track mind and it's tired.
 
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Wait, you think Russian bots and FSB are moving the story to page two in the US?
Maybe the stories got less interesting:


The top Ukrainian official who was fired for spreading misinformation has admitted that she lied about Russians committing mass rape in order to convince western countries to send more weapons to Ukraine.

Lyudmila Denisova, the former Ukrainian Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights, was removed from her position following a vote of no confidence in the Ukrainian parliament which passed by a margin of 234-to-9.

Parliament member Pavlo Frolov specifically accused Denisova of pushing misinformation that “only harmed Ukraine” in relation to “the numerous details of ‘unnatural sexual offenses’ and child sexual abuses in the occupied territories, which were unsupported by evidence.”

In an interview published by a Ukrainian news outlet, Denisova admitted that her falsehoods had achieved their intended goal.

“When, for example, I spoke in the Italian parliament at the Committee on International Affairs, I heard and saw such fatigue from Ukraine, you know? I talked about terrible things in order to somehow push them to make the decisions that Ukraine and the Ukrainian people need,” she said.
 
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I’ve read Ukraine is running out of ammunition and artillery munitions. Something tells me we won’t let that happen and those jets are chock full of goodies.
I believe one thing they are running low of is Soviet / Russian ammo. A lot of their gear is hand me down Soviet stuff.
 
If Putin is serious about positioning himself as Peter the great, he’s gonna need platform shoes up to his knees given that Peter was an extraordinary 6’11”

btw, the irony is rich given peters historical role as the guy who wanted to open the window to the west of Russia, not close it.
 
I’ve read Ukraine is running out of ammunition and artillery munitions. Something tells me we won’t let that happen and those jets are chock full of goodies.
That's among Ukraine's advantages (western production sources for ammo).

Russian on the other hand...
old ammo (and old tubes) can be a problem in the field:

FUtTsNTX0AALMCU
 
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It’s probably wrong to think this way, but the Russians pulling 1960s tech out to throw at Ukraine may be a good sign. Putin continues to bluster, but maybe the assault is beginning to waiver.
Can Ukraine exploit this? Do they have the forces to carve into overextended Russian lines.
 
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