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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

Ukraine is attempting to export grain via two routes. One through Poland, and one through Romania. Both have their challenges. I cannot believe their has not been a more forceful action by... well, anyone. I guess Turkey will wait until there are riots in the streets of Cairo before they act. And, maybe not even then.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/12/ukr...bottlenecks-says-deputy-foreign-minister.html
Yeah. Seems like world is asleep at the wheel. Maybe I am missing the stories but also seems like of all countries, the US was/is best poised to increase grain production to help but are we ramping up / incentivizing? I have heard nothing.
 
Yeah. Seems like world is asleep at the wheel. Maybe I am missing the stories but also seems like of all countries, the US was/is best poised to increase grain production to help but are we ramping up / incentivizing? I have heard nothing.
It's too late to do anything this growing season, and, we use a lot of our grain to fatten up cattle and humans.
 
Your takeaway from watching the Russians flounder in Ukraine is that ‘in a few short years’ they’ll attack NATO?
With what?

Bodies. They have lots of them in their various captive states and they will have 35 million Ukrainians to use as additional cannon fodder if we let UKR fall. Of those 35 million, there are a lot of women and children who won't be conscripted. Many of them will be raped and tortured. There are however millions of males between the ages of 16 and 60 that Moscow will gladly sacrifice to grab more territory.
 
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Starting to look like this war is going to go on for a long time. Was watching Morning Joe and the guy they had on there said the last 2 weeks have been the worst casualty wise for the Ukrainians...losing around 700 troops a day killed and wounded.

As we've seen the Russians have slowed down but are taking advantage of their ability to mass large amounts of artillery. Basically just annihilating areas....

 
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Starting to look like this war is going to go on for a long time. Was watching Morning Joe and the guy they had on there said the last 2 weeks have been the worst casualty wise for the Ukrainians...losing around 700 troops a day killed and wounded.

As we've seen the Russians have slowed down but are taking advantage of their ability to mass large amounts of artillery. Basically just annihilating areas....
Russia has extended its planning for the war in Ukraine for another four months, until the end of October, according to a Kyiv intelligence chief.

“According to our estimates, Russia still has the potential to wage a long-term war against Ukraine,” Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate, told Radio Liberty’s Current Time TV channel.

Skibitsky said Russia can maintain its current level of fighting for at least another year without needing to manufacture more weapons. “The situation is very difficult because the Russians have a significant superiority in the weapons available to them,” he added.
 
Starting to look like this war is going to go on for a long time. Was watching Morning Joe and the guy they had on there said the last 2 weeks have been the worst casualty wise for the Ukrainians...losing around 700 troops a day killed and wounded.

As we've seen the Russians have slowed down but are taking advantage of their ability to mass large amounts of artillery. Basically just annihilating areas....

This is what they do. Grind cities to rubble and not worry about war crimes. I wish they would go back to trying blitzkrieg. To bust up what Russia is doing, need some game changing equipment like better air support or longer range artillery.
 
This is what they do. Grind cities to rubble and not worry about war crimes. I wish they would go back to trying blitzkrieg. To bust up what Russia is doing, need some game changing equipment like better air support or longer range artillery.
I agree....what we have now is basically simple math.

Russians can put a whole lot more concentrated firepower in contested areas than the Ukrainians.

Ukrainians are receiving systems/munitions but are also using it up at a high rate. Hopefully they can get a reprieve so they can build up their stocks get, more stuff online the even to playing field but looks like rough times ahead until that happens.
 
The Russians are doing what Russians do. They've proven they can never be allowed back into Western Society again. They are not like the rest of us. They truly are the Orcs that the Ukranians call them.

I'm far past appeasing Russia and am fully ready to admit NATO troops into the theater to push Russia out of Ukraine all together. Give Russia notice that they have one week to evacuate the territory or NATO is coming in to push them out.
 
The Russians are doing what Russians do. They've proven they can never be allowed back into Western Society again. They are not like the rest of us. They truly are the Orcs that the Ukranians call them.

I'm far past appeasing Russia and am fully ready to admit NATO troops into the theater to push Russia out of Ukraine all together. Give Russia notice that they have one week to evacuate the territory or NATO is coming in to push them out.
We don't even need NATO troops, unless you are including airborne pilots. If NATO jets just lit up the targets we know are there this would be over in a week.
 
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The Russians are doing what Russians do. They've proven they can never be allowed back into Western Society again. They are not like the rest of us. They truly are the Orcs that the Ukranians call them.

I'm far past appeasing Russia and am fully ready to admit NATO troops into the theater to push Russia out of Ukraine all together. Give Russia notice that they have one week to evacuate the territory or NATO is coming in to push them out.

Word
 
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This is what they do. Grind cities to rubble and not worry about war crimes. I wish they would go back to trying blitzkrieg. To bust up what Russia is doing, need some game changing equipment like better air support or longer range artillery.

All of this and in addition they send wave after wave after wave of bodies. Cannon fodder is BAU for them.
 
Bodies. They have lots of them in their various captive states and they will have 35 million Ukrainians to use as additional cannon fodder if we let UKR fall. Of those 35 million, there are a lot of women and children who won't be conscripted. There are however millions of males between the ages of 16 and 60 that Moscow will gladly sacrifice to grab more territory.
So you think the Russians can Zerg-rush NATO with a bunch of foreign conscripts and whatever equipment that isn’t rusting away in Ukraine?
That’s your take away from the last four months?
Ok.
 
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So you think the Russians can Zerg-rush NATO with a bunch of foreign conscripts and whatever equipment that isn’t rusting away in Ukraine?
That’s your take away from the last four months?
Ok.

You think most of NATO will do anything but look for their white flags when Putin sends waves of bodies and old ass armor into a former Soviet holding and new NATO member? They negotiate them away much like they have repeatedly tried to do with Ukraine.

All he has to do is wait four or five years and hope that Trump or DeFascist is in the White House and LePen is finally running France. He will then be able to take whatever territory he pleases. Scholz will be quick to remind him that he sent a lot of money to Moscow for oil and scant few weapons to Kyiv and ask that he be given a prominent role in the vichy government that is established.
 
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The Russians are doing what Russians do. They've proven they can never be allowed back into Western Society again. They are not like the rest of us. They truly are the Orcs that the Ukranians call them.
Not only like Orcs, but also similar to Klingons, characterized by prideful ruthlessness, brutality, authoritarianism and slave labor (war, war, war).
 
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You think most of NATO will do anything but look for their white flags when Putin sends waves of bodies and old ass armor into a former Soviet holding and new NATO member?
I think Poland will wave a red and white flag and U.S. will dominate any efforts by Russia to attack NATO.
The Germans, French, etc. were never the strength and deterrence of NATO.
NATO has always really meant Uncle Sam.
 
Not only like Orcs, but also similar to Klingons, characterized by prideful ruthlessness, brutality., authoritarianism mad slave labor (war, war, war)
Someone said it towards the beginning of this thread, but it's like every Hollywood stereotype and fear in movies put out in the 1980s are actually true, or in reality it is even worse.
 
Starting to look like this war is going to go on for a long time. Was watching Morning Joe and the guy they had on there said the last 2 weeks have been the worst casualty wise for the Ukrainians...losing around 700 troops a day killed and wounded.

As we've seen the Russians have slowed down but are taking advantage of their ability to mass large amounts of artillery. Basically just annihilating areas....

We have been told it would be a long war for a long time now. We were also told that this period would be very difficult for Ukraine.
 
I agree....what we have now is basically simple math.

Russians can put a whole lot more concentrated firepower in contested areas than the Ukrainians.

Ukrainians are receiving systems/munitions but are also using it up at a high rate. Hopefully they can get a reprieve so they can build up their stocks get, more stuff online the even to playing field but looks like rough times ahead until that happens.
HIMARS will be a huge force multiplier for artillery. Artillery is really all the Russians have. Their troops suck. Use HIMARS to take out Russian artillery and Russian troops collapse.

I know the quantity of HIMARS is small for now, but it will grow over time, as Ukrainians are trained and can train more troops on using it. This is why it will be a long war.

Patience.
 
HIMARS will be a huge force multiplier for artillery. Artillery is really all the Russians have. Their troops suck. Use HIMARS to take out Russian artillery and Russian troops collapse.

I know the quantity of HIMARS is small for now, but it will grow over time, as Ukrainians are trained and can train more troops on using it. This is why it will be a long war.

Patience.
I agree....just don't know how long Ukraine will maintain the amount of international support they'll need for a conclusion that is acceptable to them...

You're right....just a matter of time. Hopefully they're afforded that time.
 
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We have been told it would be a long war for a long time now. We were also told that this period would be very difficult for Ukraine.
On this board a imminent Russian collapse was predicted for a couple months...

I think the folks that matter knew this was going to be a long drawn out affair...
 
You think most of NATO will do anything but look for their white flags when Putin sends waves of bodies and old ass armor into a former Soviet holding and new NATO member? They negotiate them away much like they have repeatedly tried to do with Ukraine.

All he has to do is wait four or five years and hope that Trump or DeFascist is in the White House and LePen is finally running France. He will then be able to take whatever territory he pleases. Scholz will be quick to remind him that he sent a lot of money to Moscow for oil and scant few weapons to Kyiv and ask that he be given a prominent role in the vichy government that is established.
Russia is not going to attack Nato. I doubt they try to go much further in Ukraine. If Russia starts mobilizing into a war machine like Germany did in the 1930’s, then it’s time to start worrying about that.

Self-fulfilling prophecy, also known as interpersonal expectancy effect, refers to the phenomenon whereby a person's or a group's expectation for the behavior of another person or group serves actually to bring about the prophesied or expected behavior.
 
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On this board a imminent Russian collapse was predicted for a couple months...

I think the folks that matter knew this was going to be a long drawn out affair...
I think you are leaving out some details/misremembering. You go back to early and mid March and folks in this thread and the tweets they supplied were predicting the Russian invasion was major failure and was collapsing (not Russia) and guess what. They were. They got pummeled so bad on the north front they gave up Kyiv and had to fully retreat so in many ways did collapse.

So, they over a few weeks regrouped and revised a plan to reinforce with even more troops and target a take over east Ukraine so by early May so Putler could have a Mayday Victory Parade.

Well, then more people here, and links to experts, said he is making same mistake and no way they can do that. They got kicked again. Heavy losses and embarrassing bridge crossings and Putler had a sad and dejected May parade.

What has happened since early May is, because we are dealing with an insane man detached with reality, Putler has now gone all in and is throwing everything left of the entire Russian army at these marginal gains and holding onto the small areas they have in East and south. And it has finally been working, but more to a stalemate. The foreign folks on ground like Vasquez and guy from Canada both said it was going to turn into a grind and be a while back in mid May. But they could never hold the small gains.

From my perspective by end of year, Russia will probably still hold onto some land in south and East but it will be at the cost of the depletion of much of their entire army’s fighting capacity in equipment and missiles. They won’t be able to rearm anytime soon and by then their economy is likely going to be a mess.
 
I think you are leaving out some details/misremembering. You go back to early and mid March and folks in this thread and the tweets they supplied were predicting the Russian invasion was major failure and was collapsing (not Russia) and guess what. They were. They got pummeled so bad on the north front they gave up Kyiv and had to fully retreat so in many ways did collapse.

So, they over a few weeks regrouped and revised a plan to reinforce with even more troops and target a take over east Ukraine so by early May so Putler could have a Mayday Victory Parade.

Well, then more people here, and links to experts, said he is making same mistake and no way they can do that. They got kicked again. Heavy losses and embarrassing bridge crossings and Putler had a sad and dejected May parade.

What has happened since early May is, because we are dealing with an insane man detached with reality, Putler has now gone all in and is throwing everything left of the entire Russian army at these marginal gains and holding onto the small areas they have in East and south. And it has finally been working, but more to a stalemate. The foreign folks on ground like Vasquez and guy from Canada both said it was going to turn into a grind and be a while back in mid May. But they could never hold the small gains.

From my perspective by end of year, Russia will probably still hold onto some land in south and East but it will be at the cost of the depletion of much of their entire army’s fighting capacity in equipment and missiles. They won’t be able to rearm anytime soon and by then their economy is likely going to be a mess.
I'm not sure it is a stalemate as much as slow grinding down of Ukraine. The good news is that the grinding is slow, and the further west it goes, the more Russia is exposed.
 
I'm not sure it is a stalemate as much as slow grinding down of Ukraine. The good news is that the grinding is slow, and the further west it goes, the more Russia is exposed.
I get what Bins was saying earlier. There have been a lot of ups and downs in sentiment in this thread. And, they definitely are moving forward right now. However, at what cost, and is is sustainable? Their defense industry has been severely stunted, and just how much do they have in reserve. The common wisdom was that their stockpile of standard armaments is nearly inexhaustible, with massive caches of artillery, rockets, and small arms ammunition dating back to the USSR days. But, do they have that? Seems like we have repeatedly heard of shortcomings in supply, and ineffective equipment. I just wonder how much of the stockpile was siphoned off over the years by corrupt officers, and sold off to other countries?
 
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