I think you are leaving out some details/misremembering. You go back to early and mid March and folks in this thread and the tweets they supplied were predicting the Russian invasion was major failure and was collapsing (not Russia) and guess what. They were. They got pummeled so bad on the north front they gave up Kyiv and had to fully retreat so in many ways did collapse.
So, they over a few weeks regrouped and revised a plan to reinforce with even more troops and target a take over east Ukraine so by early May so Putler could have a Mayday Victory Parade.
Well, then more people here, and links to experts, said he is making same mistake and no way they can do that. They got kicked again. Heavy losses and embarrassing bridge crossings and Putler had a sad and dejected May parade.
What has happened since early May is, because we are dealing with an insane man detached with reality, Putler has now gone all in and is throwing everything left of the entire Russian army at these marginal gains and holding onto the small areas they have in East and south. And it has finally been working, but more to a stalemate. The foreign folks on ground like Vasquez and guy from Canada both said it was going to turn into a grind and be a while back in mid May. But they could never hold the small gains.
From my perspective by end of year, Russia will probably still hold onto some land in south and East but it will be at the cost of the depletion of much of their entire army’s fighting capacity in equipment and missiles. They won’t be able to rearm anytime soon and by then their economy is likely going to be a mess.