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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

I guess we can file this under “**** the EU”


Already days before the July 22 European "Doomsday"when the scheduled Russian 10-day maintenance of the crucial Nord Stream pipeline to Germany is slated to end - but which was thrown into deep doubt given Gazprom recently said it can no longer guarantee its "good functioning" due to crucial turbines being previously held up in Canada related to sanctions - the Russian energy giant has declared Force Majeure to one major European customer.

Simply put, Gazprom declared extraordinary and extreme circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to this customer, thus the gas will stop flowing indefinitely, as Reuters reports in a breaking development Monday, "Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer starting June 14, according to the letter seen by Reuters." The letter is dated July 14. "It said the force majeure measure, a clause invoked when a business is hit by something beyond its control, was effective from deliveries starting from June 14," writes Reuters.


gazpromflows.jpg



In an analysis from earlier this month, UBS economists laid out a detailed vision of what they see happening if Russia halts gas deliveries to Europe: It would reduce corporate earnings by more than 15%. The market selloff would exceed 20% in the Stoxx 600 and the euro would drop to 90 cents. The rush for safe assets would drive benchmark German bund yields to 0%, they wrote.

“We stress that these projections should be seen as rough approximations and by no means as a worse-case scenario,” wrote Arend Kapteyn, chief economist at UBS.
“We could easily conceive economic disruptions that lead to more negative growth outcomes.”
To be sure, markets are already pricing in some of the damage beginning with the euro which starting this month traded at a fresh two-decade low and touched parity with the dollar, something it hasn't done since 2002.
 
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I guess we can file this under “**** the EU”


Already days before the July 22 European "Doomsday"when the scheduled Russian 10-day maintenance of the crucial Nord Stream pipeline to Germany is slated to end - but which was thrown into deep doubt given Gazprom recently said it can no longer guarantee its "good functioning" due to crucial turbines being previously held up in Canada related to sanctions - the Russian energy giant has declared Force Majeure to one major European customer.

Simply put, Gazprom declared extraordinary and extreme circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to this customer, thus the gas will stop flowing indefinitely, as Reuters reports in a breaking development Monday, "Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer starting June 14, according to the letter seen by Reuters." The letter is dated July 14. "It said the force majeure measure, a clause invoked when a business is hit by something beyond its control, was effective from deliveries starting from June 14," writes Reuters.


gazpromflows.jpg



In an analysis from earlier this month, UBS economists laid out a detailed vision of what they see happening if Russia halts gas deliveries to Europe: It would reduce corporate earnings by more than 15%. The market selloff would exceed 20% in the Stoxx 600 and the euro would drop to 90 cents. The rush for safe assets would drive benchmark German bund yields to 0%, they wrote.


To be sure, markets are already pricing in some of the damage beginning with the euro which starting this month traded at a fresh two-decade low and touched parity with the dollar, something it hasn't done since 2002.
I know this is easy for me to say, being in the US, but I hope Europe takes the right message from this and gives Ukraine the means to try and win the war ASAP and before winter. Once Russia loses maybe they will bargain over the sanctions and trade some of the restrictions for starting up some of the energy supplies again.
(Yes, things look fine here in Utopia...)
 
"3 rockets flew around the city, one of the rockets hit the bridge near the village of Zatoka."


Another (biased?) description of same scene-

"Missiles hit the target near Odessa At least two missiles hit a warehouse of artillery shells in the Belgorod-Dnestrovsky district of the Odessa region. Another rocket hit the bridge near the village of Zatoka"
 
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France used to have a lot of these so I hope they are sending a lot of them. (Over 2000 were built, many for export.)

 
Wowzers.
If that read is anywhere close to accurate, the raschists better tap out and high tail it home.

What gave it away? The military vehicles tires that blew out on day 2 because they hadnt been rotated? The expired rations? The outdated maps? The forced conscription? The total ineptitude of the logistics supply chain up down and sideways? The desertions? The Generals being killed at an alarming rate? An inept career non-soldier boob promoted all the way to commanding General of the Russian Army?

Russia is a f*cking joke. F*ck them and the horses they rode in on. By the end of all this I hope Ukraine shells them back to the 18th century.
 
What gave it away? The military vehicles tires that blew out on day 2 because they hadnt been rotated? The expired rations? The outdated maps? The forced conscription? The total ineptitude of the logistics supply chain up down and sideways? The desertions? The Generals being killed at an alarming rate? An inept career non-soldier boob promoted all the way to commanding General of the Russian Army?

Russia is a f*cking joke. F*ck them and the horses they rode in on. By the end of all this I hope Ukraine shells them back to the 18th century.
This would be deserved by the leadership. Sadly, the serfs are falling into lockstep towards disaster.
 
This means nothing. Ukraine is not Sweden or Finland so it's an apples to oranges comparison. None of those countries were formerly part of Russia and no Russians live there. The Baltic states are non-Russian and/or anti-Russian. Nothing like eastern Ukraine.

Most recently in September 2021 the Kremlin said Ukraine in Nato was a redline. Ukraine in Nato. This was in response to the White House's joint strategic partnership with Ukraine, also in September, encouraging them to apply to Nato. Then Washington sent a final rejection to Russia in December after negoiations. Bottomline, there were opportunities to avoid this war. Nato is not worth it.

It means everything. It means your entire basis that Russia simply wanted a nato buffer is utter bullshit. Putin wants old Soviet land - that's the long and short of it.
 
It means everything. It means your entire basis that Russia simply wanted a nato buffer is utter bullshit. Putin wants old Soviet land - that's the long and short of it.
That’s not my entire basis.

The Donbas certainly is not worth it just for “soviet land”. The question now is if they stop or take Odessa next, which is not like Finland or Sweden or Lithuania or even Kiev.
 
That’s not my entire basis.

The Donbas certainly is not worth it just for “soviet land”. The question now is if they stop or take Odessa next, which is not like Finland or Sweden or Lithuania or even Kiev.
Lol. You guys don’t even have all of Donbas. You ain’t taking Odessa. You guys are moving assets from Crimea for ****s sakes. I know this is a hard time for you and your family.
 
Lol. You guys don’t even have all of Donbas. You ain’t taking Odessa. You guys are moving assets from Crimea for ****s sakes. I know this is a hard time for you and your family.
Yes that’s what I meant by next. I expect if they take the Donbas that will be a decision point.
 
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