This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
- Start date
I stumbled on this one which shows even military experts sometimes don't have a clue.
It has a happy ending
"Happy Independence Day to Ukraine
We wish you the best
"
"Happy Independence Day to Ukraine
Back when the world was naive to the depths of Russian corruption and incompetence. Simpler times.
I think it may be more important than some realize to see the Russian Defense Minister talking about slowing their movements. They very well could be setting the stage for more bad news that has to be “framed”, in a special way in order to be palatable back home.
These are great. And Trump's comments calling Putin a genius for invading are even better than the tweets!
I like these people more and more all the time. Happy Independence Day Ukraine!
Boris loves the limelight, but, it's still a good move.
"That said, there is one big-picture conclusion that’s already clear: This war is a strategic disaster for Russia.Interesting assessment of where the conflict is at....pretty detailed.
How do we know who’s winning in Ukraine?
How experts understand what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine — and what the war looks like six months in.www.vox.com
At the outset, the Russian war plan depended on speed: a rapid march to topple the Ukrainian government that would end the war before it really got started. Once Russia seized the bulk of the country, it would present it to the world as a fait accompli — one that Washington and Brussels would be unwilling to seriously contest. Russia would get what it wanted — effective sovereignty over Ukraine — at little cost.
But this plan was badly flawed, depending as it did on wildly unrealistic assumptions about Ukrainian military weakness. Once it failed, and Russia became bogged down in a protracted war without any decisive end, the costs in manpower and materiel began to mount — as did the damage to Russia’s economy and international reputation. Russia could still meaningfully improve its situation on the battlefield, by expanding its territorial holdings in Ukraine and potentially forcing Kyiv to formally cede some of it to Russia, but it’s nearly impossible that Russia could realistically seize enough territory to make its decision to invade pass any rational cost-benefit analysis.
“Russia clearly failed to achieve its early war aims,” Ashford says. “They probably lost strategically already.”
But if Russia has “lost” in that most basic sense, it doesn’t follow that Ukraine has already won.
True, Ukraine has repulsed Russia’s initial invasion attempt; its survival as a sovereign entity is no longer in immediate jeopardy. But the long-term damage from the invasion — the mass death and displacement of its citizens, the destruction of its cities, the demolition of its domestic manufacturing capacity, the torching of its agricultural sector — is severe. For Ukraine to secure a stable footing for itself in the long run, it would need to extract some significant concessions from Russia and an extensive international commitment to support its postwar reconstruction efforts."
Not sure I agree with the last part. I mean yeah their country ahs been grievously hurt, but that is not a "loss" in a war you did not start against a much bigger opponent.
To me debating who is winning is like asking who was the winner in a 10-10 tie between Alabama and Grinnell College.
I kind of agree with you in regards to Ukraine. A “loss” would be if Ukraine is in a “strategically” worse situation than the day before the war.
Ukraine may very well end up losing some territory BUT….
1. They will be much better situated in regards to the EU and NATO. NATO and EU membership probably come shortly after the end of the war.
2. I could see some NATO countries stationing assets in Ukraine which along with Article 5 pretty much precludes future Russian attacks.
3. Rebuilding Ukraine will have a lot of international support especially from EU/US
At the end of the day more than likely Ukraine comes out of this war stronger military and a few years down the road, economically, then they were the day before the war started. Not to mention the Ukrainians have had this visceral national experience and are probably more United and patriotic about Ukraine than before the war…
Russia may gain some land BUT they’re weaker overall, economically and militarily.
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LOL (Kadrov=leader of Chechens) EDIT Did not see nor watch the first part!
"Orc ammunition depot in Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia region reported as a pinpoint hit."
100 percent. Especially when you factor in they already has Crimea and a bit of East Ukraine since 2015.
Live for today because you may not have a tomorrow.
"Also included are Vampire counter-unmanned aerial systems. L3Harris’ Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment (VAMPIRE) is a portable kit that can be installed on most vehicles with a cargo bed for the launching of the advanced precision kill weapons system (APKWS) or other laser-guided munitions. The Vampire is a kinetic system that uses a small missile, essentially, to shoot UAVs out of the sky. This L3Harris suitcase-type APKWS launcher and designator kit provides a rapid solution for arming non-tactical vehicles (NTV)."
https://militaryleak.com/2022/08/25...-unmanned-aerial-systems-supplies-to-ukraine/
https://militaryleak.com/2022/08/25...-unmanned-aerial-systems-supplies-to-ukraine/
"Deliveries begin in September: Spain hands Ukraine a new military aid package: M113 armored personnel carriers, artillery ammunition and Shorad Aspide SAMs are expected http://dlvr.it/SXCVdY"
"Aspide (the Italian name for the asp) is an Italian medium range air-to-air and surface-to-air missile produced by Selenia (then by Alenia Aeronautica, now a part of Leonardo S.p.A.). It is provided with semi-active radar homing seeker. It is very similar to the American AIM-7 Sparrow, using the same airframe, but uses an inverse monopulse seeker that is far more accurate and much less susceptible to ECM than the original conical scanning version.
This resemblance, and that Selenia was provided with the technology know-how of the AIM-7 (around 1,000 of which it had produced under licence), has generally led non-Italian press to refer to the Aspide as a Sparrow variant. However, the Aspide had original electronics and warhead, and a new and more powerful engine. Closed-loop hydraulics were also substituted for Sparrow's open-loop type, which gave Aspide better downrange maneuverability. Even the control surfaces are different, replacing the original triangular wings, fixed in the air-to-air and instead foldable in the surface-to-air version, to a newly designed common cropped delta fixed version.
A similar design is the UK's Skyflash, which entered service about the same time. The US's own Sparrow fleet also added a monopulse seeker in the AIM-7M versions of 1982." WIKI
"Aspide (the Italian name for the asp) is an Italian medium range air-to-air and surface-to-air missile produced by Selenia (then by Alenia Aeronautica, now a part of Leonardo S.p.A.). It is provided with semi-active radar homing seeker. It is very similar to the American AIM-7 Sparrow, using the same airframe, but uses an inverse monopulse seeker that is far more accurate and much less susceptible to ECM than the original conical scanning version.
This resemblance, and that Selenia was provided with the technology know-how of the AIM-7 (around 1,000 of which it had produced under licence), has generally led non-Italian press to refer to the Aspide as a Sparrow variant. However, the Aspide had original electronics and warhead, and a new and more powerful engine. Closed-loop hydraulics were also substituted for Sparrow's open-loop type, which gave Aspide better downrange maneuverability. Even the control surfaces are different, replacing the original triangular wings, fixed in the air-to-air and instead foldable in the surface-to-air version, to a newly designed common cropped delta fixed version.
A similar design is the UK's Skyflash, which entered service about the same time. The US's own Sparrow fleet also added a monopulse seeker in the AIM-7M versions of 1982." WIKI
"In the Kherson region, the occupiers are pulling barges under the Antonovsky bridge. They are put in one line, trying to make an alternative crossing ... But this is unlikely to help"
Another case of fighting each other. Things are deteriorating. Reportedly this may have been over spoils of war, which also may indicate a lot of them are thinking they are heading home soon…
That river sounds like it belongs on a Tolkien map of Middle Earth, which would make it fitting for all the Orcs dying on its bank.
Really enjoyed my 4 years in rescue ( USAF ), something new everyday.
let's hit 60K KIA by Thanksgiving
Chancellor Olaf Scholz today visited the Bundeswehr's military training area in Schleswig-Holstein, where Ukrainian soldiers are being trained on the Gepard ZSU. How old is Scholz?
Too little, too late I hope.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Thursday increasing the size of his country’s armed forces by 137,000, as the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine passed the six-month mark.
Putin’s decree will increase the number of combat personnel in the Russian armed forces by about 10%, up from 1.01 million to 1.15 million. That will take the total head count of the military to 2.04 million.
A copy of the order on a Russian government website says it comes into effect Jan. 1, 2023. It was published online and reported on by Russian state media, but no reason for the boost in troop numbers was immediately given."
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-orders-increase-russian-armed-forces-ukraine-war-rcna44774
"Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Thursday increasing the size of his country’s armed forces by 137,000, as the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine passed the six-month mark.
Putin’s decree will increase the number of combat personnel in the Russian armed forces by about 10%, up from 1.01 million to 1.15 million. That will take the total head count of the military to 2.04 million.
A copy of the order on a Russian government website says it comes into effect Jan. 1, 2023. It was published online and reported on by Russian state media, but no reason for the boost in troop numbers was immediately given."
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-orders-increase-russian-armed-forces-ukraine-war-rcna44774
More info possibly.
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