Nukes or no nukes?
This escalation is more than just bizarre. It’s suicidal. If the nuclear arsenal is in the same abysmal condition as the rest of the Russian military, who knows what might happen?
What might happen is this:
- Instant coalescence of the Western military to a war footing. Military production goes to war levels.
- NATO enters Ukraine. A real war means the gloves come off.
- Belarus falls over because Russia can’t support it militarily.
- Republics cut links with Moscow to avoid becoming nuclear targets and for aesthetic reasons.
- China can absolve itself of any responsibility for support to Russia with ease. (Xi Jinping wasn’t exactly effervescent with praise in the recent meeting with Putin.)
- Russian troops mutiny all over Russia. (As it is, a lot of them have refused to fight in Ukraine. This may well be the last straw.) There aren’t enough FSB, Chechens, or Wagner Group to fight them.
As for “ continuing nuclear blackmail” as described by Putin and nobody else – Why bother? Russia’s military is collapsing quite well already. No need to even mention the subject on the Western side and nobody has.
Nuclear war
Russia
supposedly has 5000+ nukes. There is a new post-Soviet generation of nukes, but it’s unclear how many of these are operational. The older nukes may not be functional, simply because they’re so old and maintenance is so expensive… Or should I say lucrative? Like the tanks and everything else that fell to bits in days? Russia also hasn’t had much time to build many, if any, of the newer weapons.
If you assume 20 to 50% of these nukes are deliverable, the threat is much reduced, but still likely to cause a global catastrophe. That’s one of the reasons China may also not be too keen on Russia starting a nuclear war.
The nuclear card is the only playable card for Russia, but it’s a weak, one-time-only card. Russia could be decimated by the UK and France alone, never mind the US arsenal.
The logic is seriously flawed. Any nuclear action will bring an immediate response. The relatively small highly populated areas of western Russia could be annihilated easily.
Putin has said he’s not bluffing. Let’s be clear about this.
Nor is anyone else. There can be only one response to any use of nuclear weapons. The Russian people know that, too.
This is a desperate move by someone playing a losing game. As I’ve mentioned before, don’t be too surprised if at least one of those Russian nukes is aimed straight at the Kremlin.
It
can happen.
FacebookTwitterLinkedInEmailShare
Read more:
https://www.digitaljournal.com/worl...hreats-and-it-wont-work/article#ixzz7fWdFOW00