Well, most teams end the season with a loss, so despite that bad taste in our mouths at the moment '16-'17 was pretty successful. If it hadn't been we wouldn't feel so bad about the losses to TCU and Indiana 
GOOD:
Looking forward to next season, here's my thoughts on how it might play out:
POSITION (minutes per game)
PG: Bohannon (30), McCaffrey (10), Williams (0)
Bohannon showed down the stretch that he can be an impact PG on offense, with 3 double digit assist games and with multiple 20 point scoring games as well. He's taking the ball inside when he needs to and learning how to either score or pass from there, which is why his point and assist totals went up at the end of the year. Still has a lot of work defensively, but he really helps space the floor for the offense and the defense needs to identify him every second. McCaffrey should provide a better backup as he brings a big, strong, steady presence to the floor - his length and size will allow him to play off the opposing PG slightly more and perhaps will be better defensively than JaBo, and is a much better outside shooter, ball handler and passer than Williams and so our offense will be spaced a lot better with him in there.
SG: Moss (28), Dailey (8), Ellingson (2), McCaffrey (2)
Moss may be a bit streakier than Jok, but overall I don't see a big downgrade here. He should provide more of a driving threat in the half court than Jok, is elite in the open court, and is much better defensively. With more minutes and an extra off season, I expect him to be very good next year. Dailey showed glimpses of someone who isn't necessarily elite at any one thing but who brings a lot of things to the table - shooting, athleticism, ball handling, length. He may be another year away from really making an impact, but I think he has the tools to really help us and we can use the athleticism from the wing both on offense and defense. Ellingson had a good year this year and provides experienced depth. McCaffrey will definitely get 10 mpg at PG, but to earn 15-20 mpg he'll have to beat out Dailey and Ellingson here. That will be an interesting battle to watch next year - it's clear what the bar probably is to beat Ellingson, but Dailey is a bit of a wild card. (I think JaBo needs to stay at PG when both he and Connor are in the game - he's a lot better up top with the ball imo). I'm hopefull Dailey can win this because his upside athletically on both sides of the court would really help.
SF: Baer (28), Uhl (8), Dailey (4)
Baer really came on with his outside shot late in the year, and his confidence showed. That is a really big deal for someone who was more of an opportunistic scorer than a true scorer. He still isn't a dribble drive threat for a SF, but he's another guy who spaces the floor and we're all aware what he can do off the ball and on defense. Could get stronger. If Uhl could simply figure out a reverse pivot finisher off his dribble drives or a running hook or something it would really help, because he does have good handles for his size and he is athletic. Literally - even just 1 finishing move could totally transform his image in the minds of Hawk fans. I thought his decision making was pretty good this year, he just needs 1 or 2 moves and it will open everything up for him. Dailey could get minutes here in a smaller lineup, perhaps freeing up more time for Connor at the SG spot.
PF: Cook (20), Pemsl (10), Nunge (10), Wagner (0)
This is where minutes are at a premium. Assuming Garza is ready to start at Center, this moves Cook to PF and it's pretty crowded here. Cook should start to show his face up game next season and being able to face up from 14 feet and shoot it will open up his dribble drive where he can go either hand as we saw in the PTL. He should continue to grow his offensive game. Pemsl is close to his ceiling imo but should continue to develop his ability to finish on the right block with the right hand to make him a harder guard. Nunge will be hard to keep off the court with his ability to space the floor to 3, which neither Cook or Pemsl (or Wagner) can offer. Wagner is left holding the short straw here, although I'm sure they'll sneak in some minutes. Off chance Nunge redshirts, but I don't see it.
C: Garza (20), Kriener (12), Cook (8)
Garza brings a lot of skill to the table, but so does Kriener and it will be interesting to see if Kriener can hold him off. Garza is the better player at the same age, but with the extra year of experience and off season training Kriener may surprise a bit next year (I like his skill set). Both are kids to be excited about and give us true Centers to work with. Cook should still get minutes here given the situation at PF is so crowded. Garza provides another guy who can hit the 3 (when paired with Nunge would give us 5 guys on the floor who can hit the 3!), and both he and Kriener can hit face up shots at a good rate, making it easier for them to both work the post or be a good high-low post feeder for Cook without their guy sagging on the pass. That helps a lot, compared to Pemsl trying to feed the post.
Overall a lot to be excited about, especially on offense. Sometimes it seems Fran over emphasizes offensive skills in his recruits as most of our guys not named Wagner or Williams come in with good tool sets, but defensively many of them aren't the best at lateral quickness and so we don't always cover the court well on help defense nor keep guys in front of us off the dribble. Neither Connor, Nunge or Garza are above average in this regard, so while they offer length we may still struggle a bit on defense. This is another reason I'm hopeful that Dailey can get a little stronger and give us another athletic option at SG and SF for certain matchups.
So, it's no surprise that defense will be the difference maker next year. I expect we'll win 25 games, finish 11-7 in a tougher Big 10, and get the dreaded 8 seed in the NCAA's. Should be a fun year in many respects, and kudos to Fran for bringing the program back and playing an exciting brand of basketball as well so that instead of being depressed we can now elevate that emotion to frustration due to our expectations typically exceeding our ability to meet them
Cheers!
DHP
GOOD:
- We found out early on that a lot of our ho-hum recruits like Pemsl, Kriener and Bohannon are actually outperforming their recruiting rankings - and in the case of Bohannon by a lot! Even Dailey showed that he has a pretty high ceiling. This was the biggest development of the year, imo.
- Cook was almost as good as we hoped, and still has a high ceiling. His post moves evolved near the end of the year so he's on the right trajectory.
- Moss showed flashes of being the athletic difference maker some hoped he would be.
- Baer was Swiss Army Knife version 2.0 - a much better 3 point shooter by the end of the year also, which is huge.
- Ellingson, although he struggled down the stretch, came back with the shooting year we all hoped he was capable of, and showed some savvy inside the arc as well. Happy for him.
- Fran had a pretty good coaching year, both at a high level in terms of bringing along so many young kids and handling a long lineup card, as well as in games most of the time. No coach will be perfect in games but he won a few games with his choices and probably lost a couple, but overall well done.
- Jok had one of the best shooting years of any Hawkeye player ever. Nice to see him grow during his career, a bit like Marble in that regard.
- Wagner was his normal, hard working, athletic self and gets a lot of credit for doing his thing on the court, but we didn't see much skill improvement on offense other than finishing off the bounce a little bit better.
- Uhl still struggled to find a consistent outside shot, still lacks a finishing move off the dribble drive, and still sometimes will turn it over unnecessarily. However he is really active on defense and provides a really good ball handler at the forward spot. The good news is that he learned to only force his shots with the clock under 10 seconds so I found his shot selection to be fine.
- Williams showed flashes, but still doesn't appear to be a natural PG - dribbles way to much and has no faith in any type of jump shot. Good defensively especially at the top of a zone, but without offensive skill in the half court it really hampers our offensive spacing and flow when he's controlling the ball.
- Our fairly good offensive awareness for a young team was offset by really poor defensive awareness and technique. This improved during the year (ie: getting back on defense and help rotations in particular) but clearly players need to do a better job of consistent intensity and hustle and keeping guys in front of them.
Looking forward to next season, here's my thoughts on how it might play out:
POSITION (minutes per game)
PG: Bohannon (30), McCaffrey (10), Williams (0)
Bohannon showed down the stretch that he can be an impact PG on offense, with 3 double digit assist games and with multiple 20 point scoring games as well. He's taking the ball inside when he needs to and learning how to either score or pass from there, which is why his point and assist totals went up at the end of the year. Still has a lot of work defensively, but he really helps space the floor for the offense and the defense needs to identify him every second. McCaffrey should provide a better backup as he brings a big, strong, steady presence to the floor - his length and size will allow him to play off the opposing PG slightly more and perhaps will be better defensively than JaBo, and is a much better outside shooter, ball handler and passer than Williams and so our offense will be spaced a lot better with him in there.
SG: Moss (28), Dailey (8), Ellingson (2), McCaffrey (2)
Moss may be a bit streakier than Jok, but overall I don't see a big downgrade here. He should provide more of a driving threat in the half court than Jok, is elite in the open court, and is much better defensively. With more minutes and an extra off season, I expect him to be very good next year. Dailey showed glimpses of someone who isn't necessarily elite at any one thing but who brings a lot of things to the table - shooting, athleticism, ball handling, length. He may be another year away from really making an impact, but I think he has the tools to really help us and we can use the athleticism from the wing both on offense and defense. Ellingson had a good year this year and provides experienced depth. McCaffrey will definitely get 10 mpg at PG, but to earn 15-20 mpg he'll have to beat out Dailey and Ellingson here. That will be an interesting battle to watch next year - it's clear what the bar probably is to beat Ellingson, but Dailey is a bit of a wild card. (I think JaBo needs to stay at PG when both he and Connor are in the game - he's a lot better up top with the ball imo). I'm hopefull Dailey can win this because his upside athletically on both sides of the court would really help.
SF: Baer (28), Uhl (8), Dailey (4)
Baer really came on with his outside shot late in the year, and his confidence showed. That is a really big deal for someone who was more of an opportunistic scorer than a true scorer. He still isn't a dribble drive threat for a SF, but he's another guy who spaces the floor and we're all aware what he can do off the ball and on defense. Could get stronger. If Uhl could simply figure out a reverse pivot finisher off his dribble drives or a running hook or something it would really help, because he does have good handles for his size and he is athletic. Literally - even just 1 finishing move could totally transform his image in the minds of Hawk fans. I thought his decision making was pretty good this year, he just needs 1 or 2 moves and it will open everything up for him. Dailey could get minutes here in a smaller lineup, perhaps freeing up more time for Connor at the SG spot.
PF: Cook (20), Pemsl (10), Nunge (10), Wagner (0)
This is where minutes are at a premium. Assuming Garza is ready to start at Center, this moves Cook to PF and it's pretty crowded here. Cook should start to show his face up game next season and being able to face up from 14 feet and shoot it will open up his dribble drive where he can go either hand as we saw in the PTL. He should continue to grow his offensive game. Pemsl is close to his ceiling imo but should continue to develop his ability to finish on the right block with the right hand to make him a harder guard. Nunge will be hard to keep off the court with his ability to space the floor to 3, which neither Cook or Pemsl (or Wagner) can offer. Wagner is left holding the short straw here, although I'm sure they'll sneak in some minutes. Off chance Nunge redshirts, but I don't see it.
C: Garza (20), Kriener (12), Cook (8)
Garza brings a lot of skill to the table, but so does Kriener and it will be interesting to see if Kriener can hold him off. Garza is the better player at the same age, but with the extra year of experience and off season training Kriener may surprise a bit next year (I like his skill set). Both are kids to be excited about and give us true Centers to work with. Cook should still get minutes here given the situation at PF is so crowded. Garza provides another guy who can hit the 3 (when paired with Nunge would give us 5 guys on the floor who can hit the 3!), and both he and Kriener can hit face up shots at a good rate, making it easier for them to both work the post or be a good high-low post feeder for Cook without their guy sagging on the pass. That helps a lot, compared to Pemsl trying to feed the post.
Overall a lot to be excited about, especially on offense. Sometimes it seems Fran over emphasizes offensive skills in his recruits as most of our guys not named Wagner or Williams come in with good tool sets, but defensively many of them aren't the best at lateral quickness and so we don't always cover the court well on help defense nor keep guys in front of us off the dribble. Neither Connor, Nunge or Garza are above average in this regard, so while they offer length we may still struggle a bit on defense. This is another reason I'm hopeful that Dailey can get a little stronger and give us another athletic option at SG and SF for certain matchups.
So, it's no surprise that defense will be the difference maker next year. I expect we'll win 25 games, finish 11-7 in a tougher Big 10, and get the dreaded 8 seed in the NCAA's. Should be a fun year in many respects, and kudos to Fran for bringing the program back and playing an exciting brand of basketball as well so that instead of being depressed we can now elevate that emotion to frustration due to our expectations typically exceeding our ability to meet them
Cheers!
DHP
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