Very clear-eyed and non-biased look at where the POTUS race stands one day before debate

[torbee]

Again, from the Bulwark.

A bit depressing, but realistic. As they point out, probably still a little easier path for Harris than Trump but it will be/is a true dogfight now.

She HAS to kick ass at the debate or things will get very, very uncomfortable. The fact this is the case makes me so, so sad for America, sigh.

Kamala Harris Is Falling Behind​

But her pathway to victory remains clear.​

Jonathan V. Last
Sep 09, 2024





US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event at the Throwback Brewery, in North Hampton, New Hampshire, on September 4, 2024. (Photo by JOSEPH PREZIOSO/AFP via Getty Images)

1. Where Are We?​

​

Let’s be clear-eyed: With 56 days to the election Kamala Harris is not where she needs to be.
I’m going to give you three reasons to be concerned. And then three reasons to be optimistic. Let’s take the medicine first.

---

(1) 50.5 or Bust
Donald Trump is going to get somewhere between 46.0 percent and 48.0 percent of the vote.1 In order to have a solid chance to win the Electoral College, Harris needs to be over 50.5 percent; for a good chance she’ll need to be at 51 percent.2
No matter which polling average you look at, she’s not there.


Where are those last 2 or 3 percentage points supposed to come from? She’s not going to take from Trump. His voters are locked, cocked, and ready to rock.
Harris is going to have to achieve at least one of three outcomes:

1. Win late-breaking undecideds by a large margin.
2. Juice Democratic turnout so that it swamps Trump’s turnout of low-propensity voters.
3. Hold down the numbers of those low-propensity Trump voters, either by making herself unobjectionable to them or dampening their enthusiasm for Trump.

Of those, (1) and (2) seem like the best bets.
One more thing: It is concerning that Harris’s post-convention ceiling never broke the 50 percent mark in the polling averages.
She had the best month any presidential candidate has had in a long time. Her convention was an unalloyed success. Yet in the dozens of polls taken since she became the nominee, she’s touched 50 percent in only seven.

---

(2) Her momentum is gone.
When Harris entered the race and performed at a high level, it seemed possible that she could slingshot on that momentum all the way to Election Day. Shooting the moon was always going to be hard—a hundred days is a short campaign but it’s a long time to maintain fever-pitch excitement.
We now know that she isn’t going to shoot the moon.
Democrats ran a letter-perfect convention and Harris’s bounce coming out of it was still only about 2 points. Last week she started drifting backwards.
You have to zoom in pretty tight to see it, but the numbers are there:

After a month of hockey-stick growth, Harris flattened and then ticked backwards over the last two weeks.
This isn’t the end of the world, but it is the end of one of her pathways to victory. She isn’t going to swamp Trump with a tsunami of momentum. She’s in a dogfight.

​

 

[torbee]

(3) Trump won the last two weeks.

Campaigns exist in an attention economy. Harris dominated attention for her first four weeks. Trump won the last two weeks.

How?

First, he had the choreographed endorsement from RFK Jr. waiting for the end of the Democratic convention. And then he went to Arlington National Cemetery and caused a scene.

Trump’s decision to use the graves of his supporters as campaign props was insulting—but it was effective, because it made him the main character of the campaign. (Again.)

That’s where Trump thrives. He needs attention—even if the attention is the Department of Defense calling him out as a bully and a narcissist. Once he has the spotlight he can maneuver in it.

The Harris campaign made two tactical errors during this period.

First, they ceded the field to Trump. Coming out of the convention the campaign should have continued to roll out attention-grabbing events.

Second, they engaged Trump on his Arlington Cemetery stunt, giving him the space to turn it into a back-and-forth with her. It would have been better to let the fight stay as Trump versus the DoD.

Share

---

2. Cakes
​

By this point in 2020, the cake was largely baked. That is not the case today. There’s plenty of movement happening and lots of outcomes are still possible.

Also: There are reasons to believe that Harris can move the election in her direction.

---

(1) Harris is going to win the popular vote.

I know, I know. The popular vote doesn’t matter. But cobbling together an Electoral College majority out of a minority share of the electorate is inherently tricky. It involves a lot of if-this, then-that breaks which have to go your way while the general mood of the country is going in the other direction.

There’s a reason that elections like 2016 don’t happen every day.

Despite everything, if you were a political professional, you would still rather be playing Harris’s hand right now than Trump’s.

---

(2) There’s time on the clock.

The debate is another potential inflection point for Harris. It is possible for her to get a bump from the debate if the contrast between her youth and vigor and Trump’s age and cognitive decline is obvious.

It is also possible for her to get no bump if she performs badly.

But it’s hard to see how the debate could move her backwards. She’d have to self-destruct and nothing about her performance over the past six weeks suggests that a meltdown of that magnitude is likely.

There’s also the macro environment: The economy is likely to stay strong through November. A rate cut is coming from the Fed on September 18. The price of gas is low. All good things.

Harris doesn’t need to convert Trump voters. She merely has to reassemble the coalition that already voted against him in 2020. And she has the time and space to do that.

---

(3) There are numbers below the surface that are strikingly good for Harris.

Over the weekend Jason Stanford noted that some undercurrents in the data:

• The generic congressional ballot has gone from Republicans +3 in June to Democrats +5 today.
• Harris’s fav/unfav numbers have flipped and she’s now close to even.
• There are massive voter registration increases among Democratic constituencies.

This last one is the most intriguing. Here’s Stanford:

Since Biden withdrew and tapped Harris, voter registration among young Black women increased more than 175% in a dozen states, according to Tom Bonier of TargetSmart. . . .
Bonier has since found a similar pattern in the 38 states for which data is available. Since Biden withdrew, non-white women under 30 are registering to vote at double and sometimes triple their usual rates.

If you’re looking for signals that aren’t showing up in topline numbers, this could be one. A wave of new voter registrations could speak to (a) new voters being brought into the system that current polling models can’t see, and/or (b) an enthusiasm wave among existing members of the Harris coalition that the polling models aren’t taking into account.

---

I keep going back to basics: If you came down from Mars and you could see everything that was happening, but you weren’t allowed to look at polls, where would you think the race was?

You have a strong economy with historically low unemployment. Huge gains in manufacturing. A bottom-led recovery. Inflation has been beaten. Ditto COVID.

Republicans are running the same guy who lost the popular vote the last two times. He attempted a coup. He’s a convicted felon still facing criminal charges. He’s very old and is exhibiting clear signs of mental decline. His net favorability ratings have been underwater for the better part of a decade. His own former vice president refuses to endorse him.

The Democrat is young and energetic. She’s the sitting VP and an above-average political talent. Her favorability numbers are close to even. She’s so mainstream that Liz and Dick Cheney have endorsed her.

So like I said: You come down from Mars and see all of this, what would you guess the polling looks like?

For me: I’d probably guess that Harris was up by >8 points and en route to something between 1984 and 2008.

(I’d be interested in your answer to this question, btw.)

Leave a comment

---

Obviously, a 49-state landslide isn’t in the cards. But the fundamentals of this race are so hilariously lopsided in Harris’s favor that we often forget about them—because the polling convinces us that they can’t be.

But they are. A Trump victory would be gobsmackingly ahistorical. It does not happen that:

• a once-defeated presidential candidate,
• wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote,
• during a time of peace and wide-scale prosperity,
• while being the oldest presidential candidate in history, and
• facing a young, vigorous opponent who is a member of the incumbent president’s party.

Ahistorical things happen, of course. But they’re the exceptions, not the rules.

A Harris win is not foreordained. And, again, she is not where she needs to be right now. But if she hits her marks then victory is there to be taken.

 

[Jimmy McGill]

Just let the Don talk. He will stick his foot in his mouth again and again. Problem is we have 40 percent of electorate that are uneducated fools

 

[alaskanseminole]

TL;DR Summary:

The article discusses Kamala Harris's current position in the 2024 presidential race, acknowledging that she is not where she needs to be with only 56 days left before the election. The author identifies three concerns:

1. Polling Deficit: Harris needs to secure over 50.5% of the vote to have a good chance of winning the Electoral College, but she is currently polling below that threshold.
2. Lost Momentum: Although Harris started strong, her campaign's momentum has stalled. She hasn't maintained the post-convention surge needed to overshadow Trump.
3. Trump's Recent Successes: Trump regained attention with strategic endorsements and stunts, such as his Arlington National Cemetery appearance, which kept him in the media spotlight.

Despite these challenges, the author presents three reasons for optimism:

1. Harris's Likely Popular Vote Win: She is expected to win the popular vote, which, while not decisive in the Electoral College, makes Trump's path to victory more challenging.
2. Time Remaining: With debates and economic factors in play, Harris still has opportunities to shift the race in her favor.
3. Positive Underlying Trends: There are encouraging signs, such as increased voter registrations among key Democratic demographics and improving favorability ratings for Harris.

Overall, while Harris faces a tough fight, the fundamentals still favor her if she performs well in the coming weeks, especially in debates.

 

[RollingBallofButcherKnives]

TL;DR Summary:

The article discusses Kamala Harris's current position in the 2024 presidential race, acknowledging that she is not where she needs to be with only 56 days left before the election. The author identifies three concerns:

1. Polling Deficit: Harris needs to secure over 50.5% of the vote to have a good chance of winning the Electoral College, but she is currently polling below that threshold.
2. Lost Momentum: Although Harris started strong, her campaign's momentum has stalled. She hasn't maintained the post-convention surge needed to overshadow Trump.
3. Trump's Recent Successes: Trump regained attention with strategic endorsements and stunts, such as his Arlington National Cemetery appearance, which kept him in the media spotlight.

Despite these challenges, the author presents three reasons for optimism:

1. Harris's Likely Popular Vote Win: She is expected to win the popular vote, which, while not decisive in the Electoral College, makes Trump's path to victory more challenging.
2. Time Remaining: With debates and economic factors in play, Harris still has opportunities to shift the race in her favor.
3. Positive Underlying Trends: There are encouraging signs, such as increased voter registrations among key Democratic demographics and improving favorability ratings for Harris.

Overall, while Harris faces a tough fight, the fundamentals still favor her if she performs well in the coming weeks, especially in debates.

 

[Aardvark86]

i tend to think she should be optimistic. The Aardvark Analysis:

1. I think her national numbers, for what they're worth, have been better than expected post nomination, and faster. and i think those polling averages may actually dilute her national numbers somewhat.
2. the state/battleground polls, which do matter, have been stronger, and faster, than i expected
3. As noted, she has more pathways in the electoral math, and perhaps more subtlely she has more pathways to make Trump's pathways very narrow (Pennsylvania! Pennsylvania! Pennsylvania!)
4. D's are always better at turnout than R's, and that's material in the face of an intransigent electorate.
5. Economically, rates are going to come down (though I've seen some long term analysis to really make you concerned)
6. Finally, the yard sign test. Over the years, i've just found the humble yard sign to be a better predictoer than it has any right to be, and I think she's winning that, and in places you woudln't expect her to be.

Chief risk: She'll be 'ok' at the debate, but I think in the big picture I have this sneaky suspicion that there is not a lot of shelf life left in her tactical approach of having all of her appearances be either recorded or heavily managed.

 

[torbee]

I wish he wouldn’t encourage you semi-literates 😉

Reading is good for the brain!

If more people read more, our political situation wouldn’t be as fraught. Just saying.

 

[srams21]

The only thing I think is certain is that Harris will win the popular vote but will it be by enough to also win the Electoral College? I'm skeptical but hopeful.

 

[desihawk]

expecting harris to kick trump’s ass in the debate is unrealistic imo. that’s not a slam on harris as much as acknowledging that the spotlight is where trump is most comfortable and at his best. i don’t this we have a aingle poster on hrot who can take trump live in front of cameras. harris will need to play a long game all the way into
november to win.

 

[torbee]

The only thing I think is certain is that Harris will win the popular vote but will it be by enough to also win the Electoral College? I'm skeptical but hopeful.

I'd be in favor of a constitutional amendment stating that anyone who voted for the person who received the most votes for president can voluntarily opt out of being governed by the minority party candidate who gamed the Electoral College.

 

[RollingBallofButcherKnives]

I wish he wouldn’t encourage you semi-literates 😉

Reading is good for the brain!

If more people read more, our political situation wouldn’t be as fraught. Just saying.

Somehow I had an inkling you might throw something like that at me. Haha. Reality is I am at work and only look at Hawkeyebacon for short periods at a time.

 

[MitchLL]

Five words...PENN SYL VAN I A.

 

[alaskanseminole]

I wish he wouldn’t encourage you semi-literates 😉

Reading is good for the brain!

If more people read more, our political situation wouldn’t be as fraught. Just saying.

You (and ciggy) provide a service.

I provide a service.

Both lead to 'likes'.

 

[Huey Grey]

I saw today that Trump is pushing a lot of his chips in on turning out voters who don't traditionally vote, especially in Penn. Could yield dividends. Or more likely, it could waste what little resources he has on people who won't show up.

 

[Jimmy McGill]

I wish he wouldn’t encourage you semi-literates 😉

Reading is good for the brain!

If more people read more, our political situation wouldn’t be as fraught. Just saying.

Damn man, I was reading some Victor Hugo last night. Does that count?

 

[torbee]

Damn man, I was reading some Victor Hugo last night. Does that count?

 

[torbee]

You (and ciggy) provide a service.

I provide a service.

Both lead to 'likes'.

At least I have the common courtesty to delete page breaks, ads and other bullshit that Ciggy never does

I spend time on my craft!

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

I think it’s PA or bust for her. She can’t realistically win w/o the state.

 

[Jimmy McGill]

So, I think POTUS election will come down to something in the last 2 weeks. I hope not, but that is what I think will happen.

 

[Huey Grey]

I think it’s PA or bust for her. She can’t realistically win w/o the state.

She's investing a lot of resources there. She's spending slightly more in Penn than Trump at the moment and has ten times the number of volunteers that Trump does in that state. I'm guessing she will do more ad buys there, too, which Trump will have a hard time matching.

 

[Huey Grey]

As it stands Harris has $409 million cash on hand while Trump has $295 million. It looks very unlikely that Trump will be able to catch up from here on out. To the contrast Harris will likely keep lapping him in fund raising until the election.

 

[Scruddy]

Just let the Don talk. He will stick his foot in his mouth again and again. Problem is we have 40 percent of electorate that are uneducated fools

"Don't talk" he says to the candidate who hasn't spoken to the press or public since she began her campaign. Amazing lol

Good news for lefties, the same guy who helped Hillary prep to debate trump is currently helping Kamala 😂

New York times has trump up 2 points today. It'll be 6 by the end of the debate.

 

[Aardvark86]

I'd be in favor of a constitutional amendment stating that anyone who voted for the person who received the most votes for president can voluntarily opt out of being governed by the minority party candidate who gamed the Electoral College.

as i would be in favor of one saying that, barring a constitutional amendment providing for popular election of the president, anyone complaining about a candidate with a plurality of votes not being sworn is as president due to losing the electoral college be sentenced to a 4-8 year term of continuous serial reading of the constitution, federalist papers, and Alexis de Tocqueville's "Democracy in America".

 

[torbee]

Reality is I am at work and only look at Hawkeyebacon for short periods at a time.

Mmmmmm.

Hawkeyebacon

 

[RollingBallofButcherKnives]

as i would be in favor of one saying that, barring a constitutional amendment providing for popular election of the president, anyone complaining about a candidate with a plurality of votes not being sworn is as president due to losing the electoral college be sentenced to a 4-8 year term of continuous serial reading of the constitution, federalist papers, and Alexis de Tocqueville's "Democracy in America" and Tuesday’s with Torbee.

Fify

 

[Here_4_a_Day]

 

[Aardvark86]

Fify

well that goes without saying!

 

[torbee]

A bit of a palate cleanser, also from The Bulwark. Might be a bit on the polyannaish side, but hey, it's Monday and no sense feeling sad.

​ ​ ​ The Case for Staying Optimistic About Harris​ ​ Undecided voters haven't turned on her. They just need to hear more from her. The debate is an opportunity to start closing the deal.​ Sarah Longwell Sep 9 ​ ​ ​ ​ Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks on stage during the final day of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center on August 22, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) YESTERDAY’S NEW YORK TIMES/SIENNA poll was the first major poll in a while to show Vice President Kamala Harris trailing disgraced former President Donald Trump. This poll may have surprised some Democrats and sent them into panic. It shouldn’t have. I’ve conducted nearly a dozen focus groups with swing and persuadable voters since Harris became the nominee and in those conversations it’s been clear that the fact remains that the VP has work to do with these folks. More than that, if you look at the numbers and talk to these people, it’s evident that Harris has room to win them over; Trump far less so. Let me explain. HARRIS DESERVES REAL CREDIT for the speed and alacrity with which she jumpstarted a disconsolate Democratic coalition. But ultimately this feat simply reverted the election to its mean: Fired up Dems versus fired up Republicans with a margin-making handful of low-information voters and Independents who need to be convinced to make an affirmative decision for one of the two major candidates. And those voters don’t feel like they know enough about Kamala Harris to feel comfortable voting for her. (Yet.) Here’s a sampling of thoughts from people who either voted for Trump and then Biden (flippers) or voted for Clinton and Biden, but are still undecided on Harris: ​

 

[torbee]

“I feel like I just don’t know enough about her, like, as a candidate. Yes, she’s our VP, but just like, kind of been on the side in my mind, right?” —Jessica, GA flipper “Four years later, now I think about it, like, apart from her, like, laugh, I can’t say I even know her.“ —Sumanth, GA flipper “I cannot tell you one thing that I can be like, ‘Oh yeah, she was a really good vice president.’ [...] “Not to even put any apples in Trump’s cart, but I can at least say that he did something. I mean, it wasn’t the best thing, but he did something.” [...] “If you think about Obama’s wife, I mean, at least she did some things. I mean, this is his wife. At least she was visible.” [...] “It’s scary to put your hope and faith in somebody who hasn't done anything.” —Michele, GA flipper “I'm kind of like, disappointed, because I don’t see a lot of change in what [Biden] said he was going to do versus where we’re at now.” [...] “I have to dig deep more into Kamala Harris’s background.” —Cristal, undecided Clinton-Biden voter from CA “I don’t think she was a very strong pick because of the fact that we really haven’t seen a whole lot about her. And in my world, whatever I have heard about her has been negative. Not that I’ve paid attention, you know, either way. I don't think there’s been … she’s had the opportunity to shine at all, and she’s up against Trump, who fights dirty, nasty, disgusting, it's going to be a really hard uphill battle for her.” —Jessica, undecided Clinton-Biden voter from PA “We didn’t really get a say in, I guess, like us selecting her to run, and also, I mean, yeah, she worked alongside with Biden, and she’s great,” [Note: The tepid inflection here suggested more "she's fine."] . . . “I guess I just need to, like, know more about her and whether she’s a good representation for the Democratic party.” —Ajanta, MI Flipper “Even as a sitting vice president, like, I don’t know. She's just in the background right now, like she’s the backup. She’s on the bench, essentially doing, like, a sports analogy there, like, now is her time to shine, she gets a starting role. So I gotta see what she does.” [...] “I wish that sort of happened a lot earlier, so that we would have more time to formulate an opinion and get to know her better over the course of time, because now that window’s a lot shorter.” —Drew, MI Flipper “I think they said there’s a September debate with Trump, if that’s still on. I mean, that might be a really crucial point with those two together. How do they react? How do they interact?” —Dennis, PA Flipper “If they could, like, give me some serious policies, show me some serious plans, then I could seriously get behind it. But right now, I just feel like they’re trying to almost manipulate me with positive energy to vote away. So I’m trying very much to not get sprinkled with the fairy dust. I’m trying to keep my eyes open, like I feel like most of my family’s like ‘it just feels so good.’ And I sometimes feel like Democrats can be emotional voters.” —Kimberly, GA Flipper “I do think the debate will be important, just to see how she handles the most adversarial entity that she’ll ever encounter will be, will be a Donald Trump, and that does kind of show how she’ll handle general, you know, despots in the world, and so that will be extremely important.” —Jason, undecided Clinton-Biden voter from CA The debate is Harris’s best opportunity to give voters like these a sense of who she is and what kind of president she will be. Which is why she should focus on clearly articulating what her policy priorities will be and not letting Trump turn the debate into a circus. People already know why they don’t like Donald Trump. They need to figure out why they like Kamala Harris.​

 

[Scruddy]

😬😬

 

[Here_4_a_Day]

View embedded media

😬😬

This election is coming down to this >

 

[alaskanseminole]

At least I have the common courtesty to delete page breaks, ads and other bullshit that Ciggy never does

I spend time on my craft!

 

[Jimmy McGill]

The debate is Harris’s best opportunity to give voters like these a sense of who she is and what kind of president she will be. Which is why she should focus on clearly articulating what her policy priorities will be and not letting Trump turn the debate into a circus. People already know why they don’t like Donald Trump. They need to figure out why they like Kamala Harris.​

This. Because I've never been a fan of her. I'm voting for her. No doubt. But she has never seemed genuine to me. Her hard prosecution policy on minor offensives in CA turned me off.

But at the end of day, if we are going to maintain a legitimate country, we can't allow Trump anywhere near the White House again. It would be complete insanity.

 

[torbee]

Damn, from the article I just posted, two sentences really stick out that shows WHY we are in the political predicment we are. This pretty much sums up the enshitifcation of the electorate that has resulted from the destruction of our responsible media ecosystem:


“Whatever I have heard about her has been negative. Not that I’ve paid attention, you know, either way."



JFC, Abraham Lincoln was right:

At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it?—Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never!—All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Bonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years.

At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.

 

[tumorboy]

Think she’s going to win. Almost all of the swing states are following familiar polling patterns. It’s the post election fight that will be the issue.

 

[Jimmy McGill]

 

[hexumhawk]

Harris doesn't have to do anything in the debate other than not be completely brain dead like Biden was. The media that told you Biden was as sharp as a tack for 3.5 years is the same media that will carry water for Harris if she has a bad night. The problem for her is that it could be so bad that the media can't gloss it over or not cover it. She also will have a hard time distancing herself from Biden and the last 4 years.

 

[Jimmy McGill]

I fully expect her to dominate the debate. Sorry Donny, attorneys are used to working with facts and evidence, not porn stars (well maybe @Tenacious E ) and bullshit allegations. I'm confident that 75% of the board could out debate Trump

 

[Tenacious E]

I fully expect her to dominate the debate. Sorry Donny, attorneys are used to working with facts and evidence, not porn stars (well maybe @Tenacious E ) and bullshit allegations. I'm confident that 75% of the board could out debate Trump

Oh I work with porn stars. If by working you mean watching them on my phone.

 

[torbee]

I fully expect her to dominate the debate. Sorry Donny, attorneys are used to working with facts and evidence, not porn stars (well maybe @Tenacious E ) and bullshit allegations. I'm confident that 75% of the board could out debate Trump

In theory, I agree.

The problem with Trump, though, is that he is a political anomaly.

He can be a raging asshole idiot and for some reason, many voters view that as "strength" or something. As a felonious narcissist, he does best under a spotlight and against a hostile opponent, perplexingly.

If I were Harris, I'd basically refuse to engage. I wouldn't even use his damn name. STARVE him of attention, it is the best way to weaken him.

But they won't take my advice, so I expect this to devolve into a verbal mud wrestling match, and in those, the edge often goes to the dumb fat pig, so Trump may come out ahead.