As fans, I think that a lot of us try to build models for what to expect of the Hawks ... that way we have some inkling of how much hope we ought to have ... and, on the flip side, to also have an idea of what the upper-bounds on our team might be (so that we're not foolishly homerish either). The latter scenario is helpful so that we don't implode too much, if expectations aren't met.
So what might happen in '19?
So what might happen in '19?
- On one hand, I harken back to '16 ... the last time we fielded a SR quarterback. We seemingly had some decent scaffolding on O ... with a surprisingly productive WR in VandeBerg (remember his '15 season?), a TD grabbing machine of a TE in George Kittle, a tough QB with a lot of moxy in Beathard, and a really nice duo of RBs in Daniels and Wadley.
- So what happened in '16? Expectations were pretty high ... why weren't they met? The initial things that seemed to garner early headlines were the facts that VandeBerg got injured and lost for the season reasonably early on AND that Kittle was hampered by injuries for much of the season. It's typical for folks to myopically center their attention about skill players ... but the bigger underlying factor that hurt the Hawks was simply that we had early-seasons issues concerning continuity on the OL ... and that further hindered our ability to truly impose our will against foes on the ground. This consideration is especially notable and obvious when you break down our losses to NDSU and Northwestern ... our complete ineptitude running the ball was appalling.
- What specifically transpired on the OL ... particularly early in the season? Firstly, Croston had a dinged ankle ... and the coaches were weighing trade-offs between his experience and his effectiveness moving on the ankle. In hindsight, I bet the coaches probably felt that it was a mistake playing him like they did ... this is abundantly clear when you observe how they handled Boone's ankle injury the following year. Croston's injury led to the coaches juggling Myers between LG and LT. Of course, part of what may have influenced the decision (to play Croston, rather than sit him) was that our depth at OT in '16 was seemingly sketchy. James Daniels was a first year starter at C ... and he missed 2 of 3 OOC games that season ... thus, that clearly impacted us early in the season. Welsh got dinged against ISU and then completely missed the NDSU game.
- Also, I don't know if it was necessarily understated ... but Beathard had a bum knee for much of the '16 season ... and that severely limited his mobility. When you combine this fact with our difficulty running the ball when we truly needed to do so ... this made it that much easier for opposing Ds to get pressure on the QB (and ultimately sack Beathard).
- And what about the '16 WR situation? Once VandeBerg went down ... Riley McCarron was the lone ray of sunlight in our passing game. Jay Scheel flashed on the depth chart on occasions ... but he continued to battle injury issues ... and he never found consistency for us at WR. Scheel's injury issues let Jerminic Smith own the #2 WR spot ... and he was a guy who completely failed to make as much of a developmental leap for us as we needed (he set himself up for a predictable sophomore slump because he assumed he'd be "the man" in '16 ... and didn't work enough on his own development in the off-season). For reference, regarding how "bad" Iowa's WR situation was in '16 ... our #3 WR was Scheel and he had just 5 catches for 56 yards. It's also interesting to not that prior to the '16 season, McCarron's most productive season as a Hawk was in '15 where he had 5 catches for 56 yards ... AS OUR #5 WR!
- Lastly, in '16 ... there was the question of depth ... or really, the lack thereof (on O). Many of us expect that DMX would be an important backup for us at RB in '16 .... guess again! Perhaps it was due to injury ... perhaps it was due to attitude issues ... whatever it was DMX contributed in a much diminished capacity. At WR, our #4 and #5 WRs were Falconer (a TR SO at the time) and DeVonte Young (a TR FR at the time). Lastly, behind Kittle ... we were more than a little piece-meal at TE. We were forced to play Outsey at TE back in '15 ... and he left the team shortly thereafter ... so we had very little experienced depth outside of Kittle. Pekar (JR) and Wieting (RS FR) emerged ... at least a little bit as blockers. Fant (TR FR) got his toes wet ... and saw some situational snaps as a receiving TE.
- Whether we like the parallel or not ... the nuclear of the '19 squad is eerily similar to the '16 squad. We return a veteran QB ... we return 2 relatively "proven" guys as pass-catcher in ISM and Brandon Smith ... and we have a nice trio of RBs in Mekhi, Ivory, and Toren. Not unlike the '16 season ... if ISM or Smith gets dinged ... that too would significantly impact some of the fire-power we could wield in the passing game.
- Might the '19 O suffer the same ills running ball (at least when it matters) as the '16 squad? Here I'm split. The '17 season was pretty bad for the Hawks in terms of running the ball ... and while the '18 season didn't necessarily inspire confidence ... it was still surprising in that it was an improvement DESPITE the fact that we had just lost a historically good RB in Akrum Wadley. Could Iowa's running game improve even more in '19? I honestly don't see how it couldn't ... the OL arguably returns even more experience ... we return a veteran blocking TE in Wieting ... and Ross is due to continue to improve at FB (and he brings a ton of toughness to the equation). Furthermore, if memory servers, Brandon Smith's blocking graded out as being pretty decent last year (at least, I believe he graded out as our best blocking WR) ... not bad for a first year starter!
- Who knows what will transpire on the OL. I think that we all feel pretty comfortable about our starting OTs ... so the big question will be on the interior OL ... for the 2nd year in a row! The good news is that Banwart was a pretty darn solid "emerger" for us last year ... and perhaps another young guys like Linderbaum or Kallenberger might be the "merger" for '19! One thing that I know for certain is that the Iowa OL gave up far fewer sacks in '18 compared to either '17 or '16 ... and Stanley ain't exactly a mobile QB either!
- Speaking of Stanley ... what will happen for the Hawks if he doesn't inexplicably have a game where he shows symptoms of the YIPS? That really could be the difference in a game or two for us ... in '18 he seemed to balk when facing adverse conditions ... and that, at the very least, cost us against Penn State. If we see "good Stanley" more than "bad Stanley" ... things could turn out pretty well for the Hawks.
- And what about the '16 WR situation? To be honest, it's tough to say. I think that Brandon Smith's circus catches inspires some confidence. Ihmir was the freakin' Big 10 special teams returner of the year ... so what happens if he can channel that explosiveness and ability to read and follow blocks as a WR too?! I think that the point here being that we have a pretty decent duo between Ihmir and Brandon. However, do we have much else? I don't know ... but I do know that Cooper, Tracy, and Ragaini each saw game reps ... and, at least the former 2 saw snaps with the game on the line! Coach Copeland seems to be pretty high on Tracy ... so let's hope that the young man can continue to make some positive developmental strides. I do know that Lockett is a guy who has the raw skills to be an explosive player ... much like Ihmir ... however, to my knowledge, he's still a rather raw talent. Of course, these young guys develop and improve ... so who knows when things will really 'click' for him?
- Maybe it's a little homerish of me ... but I am pretty convinced that our depth situation ought to look better in '19 than it was in '16. Although we don't have any TEs on the '19 roster who are on par with Kittle .... it's worth acknowledging that Wieting will be a veteran SR for us. Furthermore, Beyer has been firmly on the coach's radar for over a year now (at least since the bowl prep back in '17) ... and he could have seen his role grow a little more in '18 had it not been for injury. Also, toward the end of the season, it appeared that Cook started getting increasingly many "snaps that mattered." Thus, while our TE personnel will not be at the superstar level it was with Hock and Fant .... Wieting and Cook will both be SRs who have seen quality reps AND Beyer will be a JR who has seen some quality reps. Lastly, I wouldn't be shocked to see either Lee or Miamen enter the fray in '19 ... much like Fant saw action as a TR FR back in '16.