What might need to happen for the 2019 O to surprise (in a good way)

[ghostOfHomer777]

As fans, I think that a lot of us try to build models for what to expect of the Hawks ... that way we have some inkling of how much hope we ought to have ... and, on the flip side, to also have an idea of what the upper-bounds on our team might be (so that we're not foolishly homerish either). The latter scenario is helpful so that we don't implode too much, if expectations aren't met.

So what might happen in '19?

• On one hand, I harken back to '16 ... the last time we fielded a SR quarterback. We seemingly had some decent scaffolding on O ... with a surprisingly productive WR in VandeBerg (remember his '15 season?), a TD grabbing machine of a TE in George Kittle, a tough QB with a lot of moxy in Beathard, and a really nice duo of RBs in Daniels and Wadley.
• So what happened in '16? Expectations were pretty high ... why weren't they met? The initial things that seemed to garner early headlines were the facts that VandeBerg got injured and lost for the season reasonably early on AND that Kittle was hampered by injuries for much of the season. It's typical for folks to myopically center their attention about skill players ... but the bigger underlying factor that hurt the Hawks was simply that we had early-seasons issues concerning continuity on the OL ... and that further hindered our ability to truly impose our will against foes on the ground. This consideration is especially notable and obvious when you break down our losses to NDSU and Northwestern ... our complete ineptitude running the ball was appalling.
• What specifically transpired on the OL ... particularly early in the season? Firstly, Croston had a dinged ankle ... and the coaches were weighing trade-offs between his experience and his effectiveness moving on the ankle. In hindsight, I bet the coaches probably felt that it was a mistake playing him like they did ... this is abundantly clear when you observe how they handled Boone's ankle injury the following year. Croston's injury led to the coaches juggling Myers between LG and LT. Of course, part of what may have influenced the decision (to play Croston, rather than sit him) was that our depth at OT in '16 was seemingly sketchy. James Daniels was a first year starter at C ... and he missed 2 of 3 OOC games that season ... thus, that clearly impacted us early in the season. Welsh got dinged against ISU and then completely missed the NDSU game.
• Also, I don't know if it was necessarily understated ... but Beathard had a bum knee for much of the '16 season ... and that severely limited his mobility. When you combine this fact with our difficulty running the ball when we truly needed to do so ... this made it that much easier for opposing Ds to get pressure on the QB (and ultimately sack Beathard).
• And what about the '16 WR situation? Once VandeBerg went down ... Riley McCarron was the lone ray of sunlight in our passing game. Jay Scheel flashed on the depth chart on occasions ... but he continued to battle injury issues ... and he never found consistency for us at WR. Scheel's injury issues let Jerminic Smith own the #2 WR spot ... and he was a guy who completely failed to make as much of a developmental leap for us as we needed (he set himself up for a predictable sophomore slump because he assumed he'd be "the man" in '16 ... and didn't work enough on his own development in the off-season). For reference, regarding how "bad" Iowa's WR situation was in '16 ... our #3 WR was Scheel and he had just 5 catches for 56 yards. It's also interesting to not that prior to the '16 season, McCarron's most productive season as a Hawk was in '15 where he had 5 catches for 56 yards ... AS OUR #5 WR!
• Lastly, in '16 ... there was the question of depth ... or really, the lack thereof (on O). Many of us expect that DMX would be an important backup for us at RB in '16 .... guess again! Perhaps it was due to injury ... perhaps it was due to attitude issues ... whatever it was DMX contributed in a much diminished capacity. At WR, our #4 and #5 WRs were Falconer (a TR SO at the time) and DeVonte Young (a TR FR at the time). Lastly, behind Kittle ... we were more than a little piece-meal at TE. We were forced to play Outsey at TE back in '15 ... and he left the team shortly thereafter ... so we had very little experienced depth outside of Kittle. Pekar (JR) and Wieting (RS FR) emerged ... at least a little bit as blockers. Fant (TR FR) got his toes wet ... and saw some situational snaps as a receiving TE.

So what does this comparison MEAN or IMPLY as it relates to the '19 season?

• Whether we like the parallel or not ... the nuclear of the '19 squad is eerily similar to the '16 squad. We return a veteran QB ... we return 2 relatively "proven" guys as pass-catcher in ISM and Brandon Smith ... and we have a nice trio of RBs in Mekhi, Ivory, and Toren. Not unlike the '16 season ... if ISM or Smith gets dinged ... that too would significantly impact some of the fire-power we could wield in the passing game.
• Might the '19 O suffer the same ills running ball (at least when it matters) as the '16 squad? Here I'm split. The '17 season was pretty bad for the Hawks in terms of running the ball ... and while the '18 season didn't necessarily inspire confidence ... it was still surprising in that it was an improvement DESPITE the fact that we had just lost a historically good RB in Akrum Wadley. Could Iowa's running game improve even more in '19? I honestly don't see how it couldn't ... the OL arguably returns even more experience ... we return a veteran blocking TE in Wieting ... and Ross is due to continue to improve at FB (and he brings a ton of toughness to the equation). Furthermore, if memory servers, Brandon Smith's blocking graded out as being pretty decent last year (at least, I believe he graded out as our best blocking WR) ... not bad for a first year starter!
• Who knows what will transpire on the OL. I think that we all feel pretty comfortable about our starting OTs ... so the big question will be on the interior OL ... for the 2nd year in a row! The good news is that Banwart was a pretty darn solid "emerger" for us last year ... and perhaps another young guys like Linderbaum or Kallenberger might be the "merger" for '19! One thing that I know for certain is that the Iowa OL gave up far fewer sacks in '18 compared to either '17 or '16 ... and Stanley ain't exactly a mobile QB either!
• Speaking of Stanley ... what will happen for the Hawks if he doesn't inexplicably have a game where he shows symptoms of the YIPS? That really could be the difference in a game or two for us ... in '18 he seemed to balk when facing adverse conditions ... and that, at the very least, cost us against Penn State. If we see "good Stanley" more than "bad Stanley" ... things could turn out pretty well for the Hawks.
• And what about the '16 WR situation? To be honest, it's tough to say. I think that Brandon Smith's circus catches inspires some confidence. Ihmir was the freakin' Big 10 special teams returner of the year ... so what happens if he can channel that explosiveness and ability to read and follow blocks as a WR too?! I think that the point here being that we have a pretty decent duo between Ihmir and Brandon. However, do we have much else? I don't know ... but I do know that Cooper, Tracy, and Ragaini each saw game reps ... and, at least the former 2 saw snaps with the game on the line! Coach Copeland seems to be pretty high on Tracy ... so let's hope that the young man can continue to make some positive developmental strides. I do know that Lockett is a guy who has the raw skills to be an explosive player ... much like Ihmir ... however, to my knowledge, he's still a rather raw talent. Of course, these young guys develop and improve ... so who knows when things will really 'click' for him?
• Maybe it's a little homerish of me ... but I am pretty convinced that our depth situation ought to look better in '19 than it was in '16. Although we don't have any TEs on the '19 roster who are on par with Kittle .... it's worth acknowledging that Wieting will be a veteran SR for us. Furthermore, Beyer has been firmly on the coach's radar for over a year now (at least since the bowl prep back in '17) ... and he could have seen his role grow a little more in '18 had it not been for injury. Also, toward the end of the season, it appeared that Cook started getting increasingly many "snaps that mattered." Thus, while our TE personnel will not be at the superstar level it was with Hock and Fant .... Wieting and Cook will both be SRs who have seen quality reps AND Beyer will be a JR who has seen some quality reps. Lastly, I wouldn't be shocked to see either Lee or Miamen enter the fray in '19 ... much like Fant saw action as a TR FR back in '16.

So ... what do other think/expect?

 

[millhawk]

Quite a read there ghost thanks. We need better oline play coupled with our backs improving their vision. There's only one opening that I see as Banwart and Linderbaum take two of the three interior spots. Who fills it out hopefully gets settled this spring. My bet it's one of the Paulsen's or MK. Of course the obvious, we need guys like Beyer, Wieting, Cook and Tracy to get better.

 

[FlickShagwell]

Quite a read there ghost thanks. We need better oline play coupled with our backs improving their vision. There's only one opening that I see as Banwart and Linderbaum take two of the three interior spots. Who fills it out hopefully gets settled this spring. My bet it's one of the Paulsen's or MK. Of course the obvious, we need guys like Beyer, Wieting, Cook and Tracy to get better.

I think having better receivers than we’ve had in years (maybe since 2010?) will go a long way toward the development of our tight ends now that they won’t have to be depended on for a change. Getting the running game back to the standard we can usually expect from Iowa won’t hurt either. No reason to think it won’t get back on track either, as we’ll have three juniors and Goodson at the spot, who I think will challenge for a starting spot by conference play.

I’m legitimately more concerned about establishing depth on the DL and improved linebacker play than I am our offense.

 

[David1979]

TLDR

 

[mazda1]

If Nate’s thumb is totally healed that potentially could be a big boost in his confidence if nothing else.

I’m not at all sure we have plug and play guys in the interior of the line. If we suffer some injuries there it could get ugly. The fact that Linderbaum had to be taken from a depleted D line tells me all I need to know about that.

We need Goodson to be as advertised and on the field for meaningful snaps.

As always the key to our offensive season is abt staying healthy.

 

[paladinhawk]

My major concern is the apparent lack of a "home run" running back. In 2016 Daniels' longest was 67 yards, Wadley had a run of 75 yards. Last year Young had a 40 yard run and Sargent's longest was 32 yards.

There might be some bias in comparing those years, because in 2017 Wadley's longest run from scrimmage was 35 yards (he had a 70 yard reception however).

 

[FlickShagwell]

My major concern is the apparent lack of a "home run" running back. In 2016 Daniels' longest was 67 yards, Wadley had a run of 75 yards. Last year Young had a 40 yard run and Sargent's longest was 32 yards.

There might be some bias in comparing those years, because in 2017 Wadley's longest run from scrimmage was 35 yards (he had a 70 yard reception however).

Jake Gervase just said on the hawkeyereport podcast that IKM is that homerun back. Apparently he wasn't healthy at all this season. I'm excited to see him healthy.

 

[David1979]

Jake Gervase just said on the hawkeyereport podcast that IKM is that homerun back. Apparently he wasn't healthy at all this season. I'm excited to see him healthy.

Yeah Foster basically said the same thing to Morehouse, that IKM basically wasn't healthy all year and just was at full health in recent practices.

 

[TKingpin]

1) no injuries on the OL or DL
2) a freshman to emerge. My money is on Tracy as a slot WR that can do short crossing patterns and then do his real damage after the catch. Wouldn’t mind at all if the freshman that emerges is the true freshman RB from Georgia., especially if he has the vision to see the cutback lanes which were there this year.
3) better punting net yards
4) a kicker who can continue to kick off deep so that our excellent KO coverage team continues to pin opposing offenses deep.
5) no injuries to our Uber pass-rusher, AJE.
6) a 3rd DT needs to emerge
7) a true MLB needs to take control and shut down the inside runs by avoiding the wash and getting into the hole.
8) interior OL joining the OT’s as smash-mouth, punishing, linemen we know they can be. I HAVE to believe Levi will come to realize what an opportunity he has and decides to go hog-wild and become a force at guard in his 5th year.
9) one of our 3 upperclassmen at TE really takes the reigns as a pass-catching threat. My money is on Beyer. Iowa offense has always needed the TE to help move the chains. We already know Weiting can really block. Hoping Drew Cook gets his chance. Far too good of an all-around athlete to not be on the field.
10) score TD’s in the red zone, not just FG’s - very related to #8 above.
11) back 7 to continue our trend of interceptions. This should be a very talented, fast and hard hitting unit. No reason to not force a lot of turnovers. There are so many talented and highly rated Safeties and CB’s, that I suspect we play a lot more 4/2/5.
12) increased accuracy from the QB position and limit turnovers. Learning how to better look off of his intended targets, will help. Pulling it down and getting some yards with his feet if his first 2 options are covered will help, too.

That’s my dirty dozen. With the exception of injuries, any one of these items is within our control, in fact, I would say it is very attainable. How many will actually happen? The bottom line, as always, is winning the LOS. Right now, I am more worried about the depth at DT than OL.

 

[Half-Full Hawk]

#1 Improved running game. We won't win enough to our fans' satisfaction with the 94th ranked rushing team. Our three-headed monster should improve with IKM healthy, more game experience and strength. Our OL has enough horses. Need to get it done, at least 175 avg YPG.
#2 Personally I'm not "concerned" about passing game. Third year starting QB with the tools and experience to win, hope Nate can reach 65% completions and really minimize the bone-headed throws. Our top two WR's are BIG quality; their stats should improve because our TE's will get less targets. I'm excited about Beyer and Tracy.
#3 DL is a concern because we lose so many bodies. Can't foresee how to replace 4 starters and 3 other guys that should have been in the mix (Nixon, Simon, Jansen) without some bumps in the road. I do like our top 4. Need Shannon or Waggoner or ??? to be reliable in the rotation.
#4 Very comfortable with back 7. There is talent, there is experience, and there are plenty of options. Generally we are disciplined and well-coached.

So I feel good about 3/4 of the above categories and that we can beat anyone on the schedule. But, it is football...right?

 

[Pepperman]

Getting the running game back to the standard we can usually expect from Iowa won’t hurt either. No reason to think it won’t get back on track either, as we’ll have three juniors and Goodson at the spot, who I think will challenge for a starting spot by conference play.

I think the OL is more of a worry spot than who runs the ball. RBs are a dime a dozen and as you point out we have some good (not great) ones. I'd really like to see the staff commit to Toren Young as a bruiser and then let Sargent be the change of pace. People seem to love IKM for some reason and now there's this "he was hurt" movement, which I just don't believe. If IKM was hurt, our coaching staff are now proven idiots. I don't think many here would want to agree to that, so then it tells you he probably wasn't hurt all year.

 

[Half-Full Hawk]

IKM was hurt - it's not a movement, it's a fact. He sat 5 games. There were reports throughout the year that he was banged up and not 100%. Why does that make the coaches idiots?

Maybe people seemed to love IKM because the coaches said more than once last fall that he was the best back coming out of camp.

 

[Johnsoda123]

My concern for Linderbaum and Kallenberger are their weight. I'm guessing neither are at a sustainable 290-295 right now. The latter looked thin at the bowl game.

 

[Pepperman]

IKM was hurt - it's not a movement, it's a fact. He sat 5 games. There were reports throughout the year that he was banged up and not 100%. Why does that make the coaches idiots?

Maybe people seemed to love IKM because the coaches said more than once last fall that he was the best back coming out of camp.

I'm just saying from my point of view, he wasn't productive even in the first game of the year. Why did the staff keep putting him on the field if he wasn't producing when healthy and was later dinged up? Eventually they figured it out and moved to Sargent. Poor Toren Young never got the true chance to showcase his skills in my opinion. Hell, the staff even had IKM in the game at the end of the Northwestern loss, wasn't he supposedly hurt?

 

[Harbinger273]

I'm just saying from my point of view, he wasn't productive even in the first game of the year. Why did the staff keep putting him on the field if he wasn't producing when healthy and was later dinged up? Eventually they figured it out and moved to Sargent. Poor Toren Young never got the true chance to showcase his skills in my opinion. Hell, the staff even had IKM in the game at the end of the Northwestern loss, wasn't he supposedly hurt?

The only way I can make some sense of the RB usage last year is that they wanted to play IKM for fear that he would get anxious and transfer if he wasn't happy with his playing time. It just didn't add up with respect to using the most effective back and making the running game more consistent and successful. Regardless of who is back there the OL is the key. Again we will have a makeshift interior OL including what is right now a rather undersized center. I'd like to see Toren and Mekhi start off as the top 2. Throw IKM in where necessary and if he performs better next year increase his touches.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I think the OL is more of a worry spot than who runs the ball. RBs are a dime a dozen and as you point out we have some good (not great) ones. I'd really like to see the staff commit to Toren Young as a bruiser and then let Sargent be the change of pace. People seem to love IKM for some reason and now there's this "he was hurt" movement, which I just don't believe. If IKM was hurt, our coaching staff are now proven idiots. I don't think many here would want to agree to that, so then it tells you he probably wasn't hurt all year.

A few points ....

First off, I mostly agree about the comment about the OL ... however, I do believe that there are other contributing factors. For example, many fans would argue that the Hawks essentially played with an all-OG line-up on the OL back in 2015 ... and yet that OL was highly effective at blocking for the run ... while being somewhat suspect at protecting the passer. What makes the 2015 season all the more interesting is that the OL featured 3 SOs ... two of whom were brand new starters and the 3rd was a guy who missed the entire prior spring camp.

To make the 2015 season even stranger ... the Hawks were terribly hampered by injuries at RB ... and yet the Hawks continued to have guys step up and be pretty effective at the spot. Why? If I were to issue hypotheses, here are some of the contributing factors ....

1. We had a very strong interior duo between Blythe and Walsh ... furthermore, we had another strong, albeit young, 2 interior guys in Welsh (SO) and Daniels (TR FR). Perhaps most importantly ... Blythe was a strong and vocal leader on the OL.
2. I don't believe that the leadership of Canzeri can be understated ... he truly was the glue that helped hold together the '15 RB room.
3. Our "peripheral" blockers were very veteran ... AND they were also pretty exceptional. Specifically, we're talking about veteran leaders at FB in Plewa and Cox (both SRs) ... both Krieger-Coble and Kittle earned their stripes blocking before they were even primary targets receiving the ball ... and Hillyer was arguably one of the best blocking WRs that we've had in a long time!
4. Lastly, schematically, Greg Davis would have our passing game attack the edges ... and that would lead the center of the field to be very uncluttered. This left A LOT of green-space for the RBs if they could get to the 2nd and 3rd levels.

So what can be said for the 2019 O at some of these spots?

1. As is pretty well documented most of our "star power" and experience on the OL is more on the edges as compared to our interior. Of course, compared to the '15 OL ... the '19 OL is swimming with a lot more experienced depth. On the interior, I'm willing to bet that Banwart will continue to "blossom" for us as a strong contributor ... and I'm heartened by Ferentz's positivity concerning Linderbaum.
2. I have no clue about the leadership we have in the RB room. Last year it sounded like Toren was a bit of a ring-leader ... however, we'll have to see how that situation continues to work itself out. It is true that the RB will continue to get expanded in terms of talent ... with the addition of Byrd and Goodson.
3. While I think that Ross still has plenty of room for improvement ... I genuinely love his toughness. He's certainly pretty experienced at the spot at this point. At TE, while we lack pass-catchers still ... Wieting is a proven blocker ... and both Cook and Beyer have been in the system for a good long while too. Lastly, Brandon Smith is a big, strong WR ... and he was already our best blocking WR last year as just a first-year starter!
4. A big contrast that MAY NOT be to the benefit of our running game is that Brian likes to have our passing game work a lot between the hashes. That helps our passing game a lot ... particularly to the TEs. However, it also keeps the middle of the field a bit more congested ... and that makes it a little harder for our RBs to break big-gainers.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I think the OL is more of a worry spot than who runs the ball. RBs are a dime a dozen and as you point out we have some good (not great) ones. I'd really like to see the staff commit to Toren Young as a bruiser and then let Sargent be the change of pace. People seem to love IKM for some reason and now there's this "he was hurt" movement, which I just don't believe. If IKM was hurt, our coaching staff are now proven idiots. I don't think many here would want to agree to that, so then it tells you he probably wasn't hurt all year.

The only way I can make some sense of the RB usage last year is that they wanted to play IKM for fear that he would get anxious and transfer if he wasn't happy with his playing time. It just didn't add up with respect to using the most effective back and making the running game more consistent and successful. Regardless of who is back there the OL is the key. Again we will have a makeshift interior OL including what is right now a rather undersized center. I'd like to see Toren and Mekhi start off as the top 2. Throw IKM in where necessary and if he performs better next year increase his touches.

I'm split ... because I agree that Toren earned his touches based on how he RAN the ball. However, there are other important things to notice too ...

• I continued to see Toren whiff on some blocks on blitz pick-up and chipping guys ... that led to a number of blown plays. Despite being somewhat less experienced ... it seems like Ivory may have been a little better at this that Toren.
• I strong urge folks to watch Ivory's burst in '17 versus '18 ... there is no comparison. I'm sorry ... but the dude was clearly dinged in '18. However, that isn't necessarily "bad on the coaches" for playing guys who are dinged ... that's the nature of the beast in football.
• What many of us are not considering is that it may be wholly possible that no guy truly separated himself from the others during practice ... thus, the coaches truly may have been stuck trying to "find" the hot-hand. If you watch how guys were played ... the more explosive guys were Ivory and Mekhi ... and, not surprisingly, they were the guys who saw more reps during the first half. Toren seemed to receive more reps in the second half of games.
• If no guy had yet distinguished himself from the others ... it stands to reason that it makes sense to try to keep each guy engaged. Thus, you do that by offering each guy some tangible reward ... and, in this case, it is the promise of earning playing time.
• Another thing is that Foster was a new position coach for us ... so he was still likely in the situation of building rapport and trust with the guys in his room. Again, he may have felt that it was advantageous to be more democratic in how the snaps were distributed.
• Lastly, Brian and Kirk were on record several times being pretty emphatic that Ivory has a bit more diverse of skill set (compared to Toren) ... thus, schematically it may have been to our advantage to appear more "multiple" by putting in Ivory in those situations.

 

[Kurt Warner]

IKM showed some speed and burst in 17 that seemed non existent in 18-19