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What were you wrong about ?

I had Harris winning all the way.

Apparently there are fewer low information voters than I thought. I did see some interviews with people who said they were voting for her because she's a woman, or black/Indian, or "because they don't like trump," but I saw a lot of voters saying 'we need to fix immigration, we need to fix inflation, or we were just better off when Trump was president.' those are at least real reasons to vote for someone beyond gender/race.
Lol
 
No snarky backhanded answers - "America is more racist than I thought" etc. What did you really miss on?

For me:

- The terrible Republican ground game, and the awesome Democratic ground game, didn't really matter. Maybe the ground game doesn't matter so much in the era of highly polarized, high turnout elections. I thought this would be Trump's downfall

- I think Vance overall was a good selection. I thought it was a terrible one at the time. But despite some misteps (the pet-eating thing particularly), his ability to sit and have long, in-depth conversations with outlets, and come off very well and smart in that environment, was a very good compliment to Trump, and a huge contrast to the Harris/Waltz campaign

- Harris ultimately acquitted herself pretty well up to the limitations of her natural political abilities and the fundamentals against her. She had some moments she'd like to have back (that nothing different from Biden answer), but she never really had a total meltdown WTF moment the entire time. She was pretty disciplined, she had a really strong debate in a format that doesn't favor her, and she by all accounts seemed to work very very hard (a reputation she didn't always have as VP). I think she was a poor candidate, but I think she did better on the trail than probably should have been expected. Honestly, I've called her a really terrible candidate, but I thought she was an F, and she really was more of a solid C.
How could she be "pretty disciplined" when she was unavailable to answer any questions like the whole campaign? She was nothing more than a DEI hire as VP & the arrogance of the dems to put her out there as the nominee is mind blowing.
 
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It wasn't the Boomers that won this for Trump. Gen X gave him, by far, his largest victory among the age cohorts. That 45-59 year old group loves him and I don't get it.
This election made a whole new generation of Republicans especially men in the 16-22 age group.

I have two high school boys and their group of 20 or so friends were all in on Trump and would burn each other with Harris jokes.
 
I thought Trump was toast after the debate (I also did after McCain comments, Grab her by the P***y, etc.) I felt the VP Debate started swaying it back to him and then the last 10 days or so when he went off message a bunch I went back to about 70/30 Kamala winning. He's made me wrong a lot over the last 8 years. I will say this, I don't agree with him a lot but holy crap is he teflon Don. Any normal candidate would not be able to withstand the scandals/news cycles the way he does.
 
I was wrong and thought that if Trump won Dems of the board would look inward.

Some have but some still just choose to use racism and misogyny as an excuse.
Exactly.
They are the most intelligent, informed & least racist for sure. Lol
 
I wasn't really wrong on anything consequential...but I also wasn't really right about anything significant because I just didn't have strong conclusions/predictions either way.
I did think Trump would prevail despite all his baggage and headwinds because I thought KH was also a really bad candidate. (They aren't the same, but both are bad to me.)

I would have never guessed he would win the PV.
 
I thought Trump lost after the debate with Kamala. He was unprepared and she came off more presidential.

Then Biden started doing some strange things, contradicting the hurricane response narrative from her campaign, wearing a Trump hat, calling Trump’s supporters garbage.

I didn’t watch any election coverage or look at social media last night. I woke up this morning totally expecting Kamala to have won. I was wrong.
 
I was wrong in thinking America as a nation would overcome the attack by enemy states of manipulating our citizens with paid influencers and politicians and using massive coordinated disinformation from bots and trolls to destabilize and weaken our country in every possible way. After over a decade of this, Russia and China have won.
 
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I was wrong about virtually everything.
  • I said Kamala would win the popular vote - wrong
  • I said Kamala was pulling away at the end with all the momentum - wrong
  • I said it would be a close race and Kamala would barely win - dead wrong
What I was right about: in 2020 I said Kamala was a horrible VP choice and that Biden should be a one term President. All through his term I said he should not run again. And then when he did I said he should drop out.

I got the macro picture right, but then lost sight of the things voters living paycheck to paycheck care about.
 
I wasn't particularly surprised that trump won the election - I was well aware that it was a strong possibility. I'm very surprised that he won the popular vote, and I'm surprised that the turnout was so low (devastatingly so for Dems). About an 11% decrease from 2020 turnout.

That's pretty much my takeaway, as well.

I've been picking Trump to win since early in the year. I was at a conference in February where Charlie Cook was one of the keynote speakers. He came out right away and said it looks like Trump was going to win (I don't think Charlie's republican, either)........I thought "no way." He laid out sound reasoning why this election path was likely. One of his main points was voter turnout (and the potential lack thereof), which ultimately was the major cause of the Harris campaign defeat.
 
turns about cost of living is important to people who live in reality

Yeah it's important to most people. I just disagree that Trump is going to have a positive effect or that he has the answers to our problems.
 
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They voted for Biden.
It’s hard to believe Biden would have lost as bad even after the debate. People can try to spin it was because she was not overly charismatic or BS like she was not qualified but it’s pretty obvious as to why this happened…it’s not just Republicans who have racists and misogynistic people in their ranks. Which is why Joe won the 2020 nomination and election in the first place and why Kamala would not have won the 2024 nomination if there was a true primary. The numbers are painfully obvious. Which is why as I said above, I have no ****s to give about the poor uneducated working class. They can reap it.
 
It’s hard to believe Biden would have lost as bad even after the debate. People can try to spin it was because she was not overly charismatic or BS like she was not qualified but it’s pretty obvious as to why this happened…it’s not just Republicans who have racists and misogynistic people in their ranks. Which is why Joe won the 2020 nomination and election in the first place and why Kamala would not have won the 2024 nomination if there was a true primary. The numbers are painfully obvious. Which is why as I said above, I have no ****s to give about the poor uneducated working class. They can reap it.
It is hard to empathize with people who either do not vote or vote against their interests. I mean, if they will not vote to help themselves why should I care? Of course though, I want the best for their children. That has always been tough for me politically balancing policies which do not reward bad behavior of adults while giving their children the best shot in life to be productive citizens.
 
It wasn't the Boomers that won this for Trump. Gen X gave him, by far, his largest victory among the age cohorts. That 45-59 year old group loves him and I don't get it.
Yep. You’re welcome. Now leave us TF alone!!!! (Yeah, I know. Grohl probably voted for Scamala)



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To your first point I agree the ground game maybe doesn't mean what it once was. the other podcasts he did. I thought it was a waste of time.

It's clear he did really well with young males so I take an L on that.

This is a really good one. I saw a lot of people whose opinions I respect mock some of the streamers and podcasters they were going on. But by the end they were conceding that it was clearly Trumps best format. Conservatives who hate Trump and can't listen to him for 30 seconds on the stump were saying they listened to him for an hour or more in that format. And Vance was dominant. I suspect a decent amount of people that had to talk themselves into voting for Trump did so after listening to Rogan or one of the other long form open interviews.
 
I am not surprised about anything. Trump got to run as an outsider again like it was 2016 all over again. They gave him some racially/gender charged catch phrases, and he hammered them home. People forgot how terrible his presidency was.
Not what I got wrong, but Biden and Dems at large didn't get it right on immigration. They should have been angrier and more dehumanizing, or at least used some of the language. People are motivated by fear, and Trump motivated them.
 
I hear this a lot,.. I think we need to stop believing that we can know best where other people's interests lie.
I am talking financial self interest. It's quite easy to figure out what programs people are eligible for or are on, and what their bottom line financial impact will be if that program goes away. But, if they want to trade that for deporting people, not liking someone's laugh or charisma, or picking a supreme court justice, okay. Just don't bitch about your pocket book when now you cannot make ends meet.
 
This is a really good one. I saw a lot of people whose opinions I respect mock some of the streamers and podcasters they were going on. But by the end they were conceding that it was clearly Trumps best format. Conservatives who hate Trump and can't listen to him for 30 seconds on the stump were saying they listened to him for an hour or more in that format. And Vance was dominant. I suspect a decent amount of people that had to talk themselves into voting for Trump did so after listening to Rogan or one of the other long form open interviews.
Yep and my thought is the low propensity young male voter was motivated to vote after Trump/Vance were on these platforms.
 
How could she be "pretty disciplined" when she was unavailable to answer any questions like the whole campaign? She was nothing more than a DEI hire as VP & the arrogance of the dems to put her out there as the nominee is mind blowing.
I won't argue that she wasn't a shitty candidate, because she was. Whether a better candidate would have made a difference or not I don't know, but I'm very confident that a real primary would have produced a different one that had a better chance than she did for a multitude of reasons.

The biggest surprise to me overall was that women didn't come out for her. As was the case with Hillary, she garnered a lower percentage of the female vote than their male predecessors.
 
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Harris did better than I thought she would.

I didn't think old Joe would be as snarky as he was in the past few weeks. He undermined Harris a few times.

Virginia was way closer than I thought it would be.

Still waiting to see which celebrities will leave the country. I don't think any will leave.
 
No snarky backhanded answers - "America is more racist than I thought" etc. What did you really miss on?

For me:

- The terrible Republican ground game, and the awesome Democratic ground game, didn't really matter. Maybe the ground game doesn't matter so much in the era of highly polarized, high turnout elections. I thought this would be Trump's downfall

- I think Vance overall was a good selection. I thought it was a terrible one at the time. But despite some misteps (the pet-eating thing particularly), his ability to sit and have long, in-depth conversations with outlets, and come off very well and smart in that environment, was a very good compliment to Trump, and a huge contrast to the Harris/Waltz campaign

- Harris ultimately acquitted herself pretty well up to the limitations of her natural political abilities and the fundamentals against her. She had some moments she'd like to have back (that nothing different from Biden answer), but she never really had a total meltdown WTF moment the entire time. She was pretty disciplined, she had a really strong debate in a format that doesn't favor her, and she by all accounts seemed to work very very hard (a reputation she didn't always have as VP). I think she was a poor candidate, but I think she did better on the trail than probably should have been expected. Honestly, I've called her a really terrible candidate, but I thought she was an F, and she really was more of a solid C.
Terrible Republican ground game? With the rallies it was the most awesome in history. Good Democrat ground game? There wasn't any ...she hid in the basement
 
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