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Why Nikki Haley polls better against Joe Biden than Donald Trump does

I've been saying that for months, Dems put a little too much faith in an informed electorate. Then you hear so if it's Biden vs Trump you'll vote Trump? Which is not the argument. There's likely a large number of voters who were previously Biden who may have zero enthusiasm and not vote at all. You can't just copy/paste the 2020 election again. I doubt there's many Trump voters from 2020 who can ever be persuaded to NOT vote for Trump in 2024. Democrat voters who aren't jazzed about Biden is a problem down ticket as well if they decide to stay home in November.

As for Haley, she couldn't have a better set up after Iowa. New Hampshire is an open primary and her home state is third. No excuses.
I'll ask you the same question, if it's Trump vs Biden are you voting for Trump?
 
I've been saying that for months, Dems put a little too much faith in an informed electorate. Then you hear so if it's Biden vs Trump you'll vote Trump? Which is not the argument. There's likely a large number of voters who were previously Biden who may have zero enthusiasm and not vote at all. You can't just copy/paste the 2020 election again. I doubt there's many Trump voters from 2020 who can ever be persuaded to NOT vote for Trump in 2024. Democrat voters who aren't jazzed about Biden is a problem down ticket as well if they decide to stay home in November.

As for Haley, she couldn't have a better set up after Iowa. New Hampshire is an open primary and her home state is third. No excuses.
If Trump is the nominee independents will come out in droves to vote against him. Easiest choice ever. He is the bad guy in this movie.
 
No, not sure how you came to that assumption.
Because those are your 2 choices. Dems are doing what always happens when an incumbent President runs for reelection, which is let him run unopposed in the primaries. Non MAGA republicans are the ones with the problem. Their party's nominee will be Trump, it doesn't matter which candidate is running second. Even if a miracle happens and someone other than Trump wins the nomination, MAGA voters will either not vote or write in Trump.
 
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Because those are your 2 choices. Dems are doing what always happens when an incumbent President runs for reelection, which is let him run unopposed in the primaries. Non MAGA republicans are the ones with the problem. Their party's nominee will be Trump, it doesn't matter which candidate is running second. Even if a miracle happens and someone other than Trump wins the nomination, MAGA voters will either not vote or write in Trump.

If those are my two options I will either vote independent or write in someone.

My point, was that Dems seem to think a win against Trump with Biden is a slam dunk.

I do not believe that.
 
If those are my two options I will either vote independent or write in someone.

My point, was that Dems seem to think a win against Trump with Biden is a slam dunk.

I do not believe that.
I don't think anything for the Dems is a slam dunk, but if Trump is running people will be voting either for Trump or against Trump regardless of the Dem's candidate.
 
If Trump is the nominee independents will come out in droves to vote against him. Easiest choice ever. He is the bad guy in this movie.
You are 100% correct. If it was biden vs anyone but trump I would not have even the slightest amount of enthusiasm vs if it’s Trump. You better believe my ass is hitting the polls if Trump is the nominee. And just to be clear, I will vote regardless, just giving my perspective as someone who is more aligned with the middle.
 
I'll ask you the same question, if it's Trump vs Biden are you voting for Trump?
I wouldn't vote Trump over anybody and have little problem with Biden, but people like you who ask that question assume those in the middle, who aren't political in any way, will answer the same way or vote like they did in 2020. I'm telling you it's not the same deal this time. In 2020, Biden was a blank canvas alternative to Trump. In 2024, anybody who feels like some aspect of their life has worsened can blame it on Biden, whether that's reality or not. At the same time, I think any new Democrat candidate would cruise for the same reasons in 24. Trump voters are sticking with Trump regardless, we all better hope that Biden keeps every one of his voters in states where he won by a whisker. My feeling is Biden probably maxed out in 2020, I hope I'm proven wrong if that's the matchup.
 
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It's hard to tell who is paying for the ads, but there is one up during the Bears game calling Haley, Tricky Nikki. I assume it's a Trump ad. I think the wharf rat is starting to worry about her a little.
 
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They’re independents and moderates. They hate Donald Trump and have mixed views of Joe Biden’s job performance as president. And they just might help Republicans close a historic gender gap.

Those are the voters who tell pollsters they’d vote for Nikki Haley over Biden. But if the 2024 election is a rematch of 2020, they would back Biden over Trump.

Polls clearly suggest Haley is a stronger general-election candidate than Trump, with Haley leading Biden by 4 points in the latest RealClearPolitics averages while Trump leads the president by 2 points and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leads by 1 point. Some polls even show Haley with gaudy, double-digit leads over Biden — including a Wall Street Journal pollreleased hours before this column published that showed her a stunning 17 points ahead of Biden (Trump led the president by 4).
A POLITICO analysis of recent polls — and data provided exclusively by Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin — shows Trump and Haley would assemble different electoral coalitions in matchups against Biden. And the differences aren’t just a curiosity: They’re undergirding Haley’s case as she seeks an unlikely, come-from-behind victory in the weeks leading up to the first caucuses and primaries.
“I beat Joe Biden by 10 to 13 points” in some of the polls, Haley told Fox News Channel this week, before pressing the electability argument down the ballot: “This is about governorships up and down the ticket. This is about House seats, Senate seats. This is about winning again.”

Well duh. I've been trying to help Rs but they are mostly (not all) idiots. Pick Hailey and you win the White House. Pick Trump and it's 50/50 at best.
 
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Irrelevant.

He’ll be in jail in a few months.
I'll give you a little scratch between the ears. Although Super Tuesday will allow Trump to lock up the nomination earlier than the last time around, the Manhattan case seems sure to start at the end of March. It might have a slight dampening effect for the remaining primary states if he is convicted. I do not think the 1/6 case will start as scheduled, but if it results in a conviction by the convention there is a very small chance that Trump won't be the nominee.
 
I'll give you a little scratch between the ears. Although Super Tuesday will allow Trump to lock up the nomination earlier than the last time around, the Manhattan case seems sure to start at the end of March. It might have a slight dampening effect for the remaining primary states if he is convicted. I do not think the 1/6 case will start as scheduled, but if it results in a conviction by the convention there is a very small chance that Trump won't be the nominee.
Noted
 
I say that only because the electability issue that Haley is starting to frame becomes magnified. You aren't being subjected to the ads like we are here in Iowa, but if you watch them on line you'll note she is using the word "chaos", a lot, and she isn't tying it directly to Biden. She says something like the chaos of the past. Well, that sure seems like a nod to the Trump years, too.
It would just be nice if she could steel herself up enough to say his name.
 
I say that only because the electability issue that Haley is starting to frame becomes magnified. You aren't being subjected to the ads like we are here in Iowa, but if you watch them on line you'll note she is using the word "chaos", a lot, and she isn't tying it directly to Biden. She says something like the chaos of the past. Well, that sure seems like a nod to the Trump years, too.
It would just be nice if she could steel herself up enough to say his name.
Been seeing attack ads against her here in Florida. Apparently she's a Hillary Clinton clone...
 
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Trump is 50+ in the latest Iowa poll. This Republican primary is gonna be over after New Hampshire.
 
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There are about 8 states that decide presidential elections. They should just poll them individually and publish the results.
 
There are about 8 states that decide presidential elections. They should just poll them individually and publish the results.
Wrong. We should have a committee give us the eye test. However, if the campaign manager is absent, all bets are off.
 
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I would advocate for combined primaries ideally with ranked choice voting. Having separate primaries encourages more far leaning candidates. Combined primaries would allow moderates more opportunities, and may even allow for alternative party formation. The current system has created a duopoly with the main purpose of each party to serve as a foil to the other.
 
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I would vote for Dean Phillips against Trump. I will vote third party(libertarian probably) if it’s Biden v Trump.
Are you saying you're SA_Hawk or did you just want to share your feelings? Either way I'm glad you won't vote for Trump.
 
I didn’t see it in the article, but admittedly, I skimmed through much of it, I’d guess the fact she’s a female also helps her. There were a lot of women, and maybe some men, who voted for Hillary for no other reason than she was a woman. I’m guessing that will be much the same if Haley gets the nomination.
 
I considered Haley briefly but she’s been shown to change positions abruptly when it’s politically advantageous for herself. She recently waffled on Trump even saying he’s competent enough to hold office, she’s just hedging her bets once again. She’s spineless and not very thoughtful or trustworthy.

And for those reasons I’m a big fat NO for Nimrata.
 
I considered Haley briefly but she’s been shown to change positions abruptly when it’s politically advantageous for herself. She recently waffled on Trump even saying he’s competent enough to hold office, she’s just hedging her bets once again. She’s spineless and not very thoughtful or trustworthy.

And for those reasons I’m a big fat NO for Nimrata.
She would be another Kevin McCarthy if she ever got to the White House.
 
If you are voting third party you are voting for Trump. That’s why Putin bankrolled Jill Stein in 2016.
That isn’t true but good try. I see Dems trying this tactic all the time and it’s very anti-democratic. Weird tactic for the party that is trying to save democracy.
 
She will follow the Republican refusal to recognize that climate change is the number one issue affecting the future of our nation, and life on earth, and will continue to support big oil and increasing our carbon footprint. Biden has done about as good of a job as any president could with only one branch of congress and with an insane party in charge of the house. Trump has admitted that he will attempt a coup to destroy our democracy. There is only one choice for patriotic Americans, and it not today's Republican Party.
Please elaborate on your climate change concerns. Our government is taking away our freedoms, and you are concerned about climate change. Please share an example of how your life has been impacted by climate change.
 
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Please elaborate on your climate change concerns. Our government is taking away our freedoms, and you are concerned about climate change. Please share an example of how your life has been impacted by climate change.
Rs sure are taking away our freedoms. Starting with abortion.
 
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Please elaborate on your climate change concerns. Our government is taking away our freedoms, and you are concerned about climate change. Please share an example of how your life has been impacted by climate change.
I'm old, so I will be dead before it really starts to set in, but it presents an existential threat to all life on earth. See Venus for what our planet will end up looking like if we don't curb our carbon emissions. It is the one and only most important issue that humanity needs to deal with.
 
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