Why Nikki Haley polls better against Joe Biden than Donald Trump does

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

They’re independents and moderates. They hate Donald Trump and have mixed views of Joe Biden’s job performance as president. And they just might help Republicans close a historic gender gap.

Those are the voters who tell pollsters they’d vote for Nikki Haley over Biden. But if the 2024 election is a rematch of 2020, they would back Biden over Trump.

Polls clearly suggest Haley is a stronger general-election candidate than Trump, with Haley leading Biden by 4 points in the latest RealClearPolitics averages while Trump leads the president by 2 points and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leads by 1 point. Some polls even show Haley with gaudy, double-digit leads over Biden — including a Wall Street Journal pollreleased hours before this column published that showed her a stunning 17 points ahead of Biden (Trump led the president by 4).
A POLITICO analysis of recent polls — and data provided exclusively by Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin — shows Trump and Haley would assemble different electoral coalitions in matchups against Biden. And the differences aren’t just a curiosity: They’re undergirding Haley’s case as she seeks an unlikely, come-from-behind victory in the weeks leading up to the first caucuses and primaries.
“I beat Joe Biden by 10 to 13 points” in some of the polls, Haley told Fox News Channel this week, before pressing the electability argument down the ballot: “This is about governorships up and down the ticket. This is about House seats, Senate seats. This is about winning again.”

Why Nikki Haley polls better against Joe Biden than Donald Trump does

A POLITICO analysis shows the former South Carolina governor is winning swaths of moderate voters who'd pick Joe Biden if Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination.

www.politico.com

 

[Dr. Spaceman]

They’re independents and moderates. They hate Donald Trump and have mixed views of Joe Biden’s job performance as president. And they just might help Republicans close a historic gender gap.

Those are the voters who tell pollsters they’d vote for Nikki Haley over Biden. But if the 2024 election is a rematch of 2020, they would back Biden over Trump.

Polls clearly suggest Haley is a stronger general-election candidate than Trump, with Haley leading Biden by 4 points in the latest RealClearPolitics averages while Trump leads the president by 2 points and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leads by 1 point. Some polls even show Haley with gaudy, double-digit leads over Biden — including a Wall Street Journal pollreleased hours before this column published that showed her a stunning 17 points ahead of Biden (Trump led the president by 4).
A POLITICO analysis of recent polls — and data provided exclusively by Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin — shows Trump and Haley would assemble different electoral coalitions in matchups against Biden. And the differences aren’t just a curiosity: They’re undergirding Haley’s case as she seeks an unlikely, come-from-behind victory in the weeks leading up to the first caucuses and primaries.
“I beat Joe Biden by 10 to 13 points” in some of the polls, Haley told Fox News Channel this week, before pressing the electability argument down the ballot: “This is about governorships up and down the ticket. This is about House seats, Senate seats. This is about winning again.”

Why Nikki Haley polls better against Joe Biden than Donald Trump does

A POLITICO analysis shows the former South Carolina governor is winning swaths of moderate voters who'd pick Joe Biden if Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination.

www.politico.com

How does she poll against Trump?

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

How does she poll against Trump?

Irrelevant.

He’ll be in jail in a few months.

 

[onlyTheObvious]

Only person Biden can beat is Trump.

Dems need Trump to hold White House.

Bizarre times for sure.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

Irrelevant.

He’ll be in jail in a few months.

We can hope.

I don’t think he’ll ever see the inside of a cell, though.

 

[hawkeye54545]

Because Trump sucks?

 

[MitchLL]

Republicans = Trash

 

[sober_teacher]

Polls like this are dumb. I don't think anyone who isn't already all in on Trump has ever looked at the other GOPers in the field and not thought that they were better matchups against Biden.

Not sure how accurate it is, but I've seen it suggested the past couple of weeks that if Trump weren't running again, Biden likely wouldn't be either.

But this is also a moot point unless Trump is actually convicted and in prison before november next year - which is an open question as Trump is fighting tooth and nail to delay all the trials as much as possible.

 

[Hawki97]

I’d spend a lot more time looking into Haley if she won the nomination. As it is, I assume all the repubber losers are going to nominate that dumbshit again so I’ll have to vote for Biden just to keep the abomination out of office.

 

[sober_teacher]

I’d spend a lot more time looking into Haley if she won the nomination. As it is, I assume all the repubber losers are going to nominate that dumbshit again so I’ll have to vote for Biden just to keep the abomination out of office.

It's a darn shame Christie doesn't have a chance - he at least had the guts to mention Trump's name in the last debate. Have never ever seen a race where nearly all the candidates are ignoring the frontrunner and basically running for second.

 

[Scruddy]

They don't have mixed views, nearly 80% of independent voters disapprove of joe biden and his performance.

 

[cigaretteman]

She would be terrible for the United States and the world at large, but at least wouldn't attempt to turn America into a dictatorship as Trump has promised to try to do.

 

[hawkosx]

She would be terrible for the United States and the world at large, but at least wouldn't attempt to turn America into a dictatorship as Trump has promised to try to do.

Why do you think this? Honest question. I really don’t follow politics.
Can it be worse than Biden or Trump?

 

[cigaretteman]

Why do you think this? Honest question. I really don’t follow politics.
Can it be worse than Biden or Trump?

She will follow the Republican refusal to recognize that climate change is the number one issue affecting the future of our nation, and life on earth, and will continue to support big oil and increasing our carbon footprint. Biden has done about as good of a job as any president could with only one branch of congress and with an insane party in charge of the house. Trump has admitted that he will attempt a coup to destroy our democracy. There is only one choice for patriotic Americans, and it not today's Republican Party.

 

[lucas80]

Irrelevant.

He’ll be in jail in a few months.

Any case he is actually convicted in will be on appeal well into 2025. AG Brenna Byrd will torpedo the federal cases. Any state convictions will withhold punishment until after he leaves office, and then he'll appeal those until he dies. Tough luck for NY or Georgia if a big storm hits in his 2nd presidency. Trump will withhold federal aid as retribution.

 

[lucas80]

Haley had an interesting ad on during the Army / Navy game today talking about the PTSD her husband suffers from due to his service in Iraq. It seems oddly personal. She also is campaigning relentlessly on TV and on radio about standing up to Russia and China. She is hopelessly out of step with the core of the GQP. Ukraine lied about Trump, so Russia gets to have it.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Any case he is actually convicted in will be on appeal well into 2025. AG Brenna Byrd will torpedo the federal cases. Any state convictions will withhold punishment until after he leaves office, and then he'll appeal those until he dies. Tough luck for NY or Georgia if a big storm hits in his 2nd presidency. Trump will withhold federal aid as retribution.

Pretty good chance he gets a Big Mac lodged in his esophagus between now and then…

 

[CarolinaHawkeye]

Pretty good chance he gets a Big Mac lodged in his esophagus between now and then…

We can only hope.

 

[lucas80]

Pretty good chance he gets a Big Mac lodged in his esophagus between now and then…

The average GQP voter will vote for him anyway. Alex Jones will tell them Trump is really alive, and in hiding to keep himself from Biden's goons until inauguration day.

 

[goldmom]

Irrelevant.

He’ll be in jail in a few months.

Hopefully.

 

[goldmom]

She will follow the Republican refusal to recognize that climate change is the number one issue affecting the future of our nation, and life on earth, and will continue to support big oil and increasing our carbon footprint. Biden has done about as good of a job as any president could with only one branch of congress and with an insane party in charge of the house. Trump has admitted that he will attempt a coup to destroy our democracy. There is only one choice for patriotic Americans, and it not today's Republican Party.

The person shouting the loudest about climate change being a complete hoax on that stage was Vivek Ramaswamy,

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

If Haley can beat Biden, do the Dems have someone in the wings able to beat Nikki - so Biden can step aside? Who?

 

[gohawks50]

Irrelevant.

He’ll be in jail in a few months.

I don't think anything prevents him from being elected President from a jail cell and I can't imagine the voters that still support him having their minds changed by a conviction they will believe is corrupt.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I don't think anything prevents him from being elected President from a jail cell and I can't imagine the voters that still support him having their minds change by a conviction they will believe is corrupt.

He needs to get independents to vote for him to actually win…he ain’t getting those votes from a jail cell.

 

[gohawks50]

He needs to get independents to vote for him to actually win…he ain’t getting those votes from a jail cell.

Nikki Haley is not getting the nomination from independents. Trump will be the Republican nominee unless he dies before the convention.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Nikki Haley is not getting the nomination from independents. Trump will be the Republican nominee unless he dies before the convention.

You’re probably right. We’ll see what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire.

 

[lucas80]

Haley cannot bring herself to say Trump's name out loud. She says she can beat Putin and Xi, but she can't say the name of the guy beating her in the polls out loud.

 

[lucas80]

He needs to get independents to vote for him to actually win…he ain’t getting those votes from a jail cell.

I heard something on CNN this morning about the increasingly narrow band of voters who will swing the election. 400,000 or so. Are you willing to bet that those people will turn out to vote against Trump?

 

[THE_DEVIL]

According to her commercials she is running against the Emails Lady not Biden

 

[Franisdaman]

They’re independents and moderates. They hate Donald Trump and have mixed views of Joe Biden’s job performance as president. And they just might help Republicans close a historic gender gap.

Those are the voters who tell pollsters they’d vote for Nikki Haley over Biden. But if the 2024 election is a rematch of 2020, they would back Biden over Trump.

Polls clearly suggest Haley is a stronger general-election candidate than Trump, with Haley leading Biden by 4 points in the latest RealClearPolitics averages while Trump leads the president by 2 points and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leads by 1 point. Some polls even show Haley with gaudy, double-digit leads over Biden — including a Wall Street Journal pollreleased hours before this column published that showed her a stunning 17 points ahead of Biden (Trump led the president by 4).
A POLITICO analysis of recent polls — and data provided exclusively by Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin — shows Trump and Haley would assemble different electoral coalitions in matchups against Biden. And the differences aren’t just a curiosity: They’re undergirding Haley’s case as she seeks an unlikely, come-from-behind victory in the weeks leading up to the first caucuses and primaries.
“I beat Joe Biden by 10 to 13 points” in some of the polls, Haley told Fox News Channel this week, before pressing the electability argument down the ballot: “This is about governorships up and down the ticket. This is about House seats, Senate seats. This is about winning again.”

Why Nikki Haley polls better against Joe Biden than Donald Trump does

A POLITICO analysis shows the former South Carolina governor is winning swaths of moderate voters who'd pick Joe Biden if Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination.

www.politico.com

I wonder if a "No Labels" candidate is going to emerge. Most of the country is sick of the extreme left, the extreme right and nothing getting done.

 

[SansAgain]

He needs to get independents to vote for him to actually win…he ain’t getting those votes from a jail cell.

Why not? What about the black vote?

 

[jonesy5960]

How does she poll against Trump?

It's the Iowa GOP caucus so it depends on what questions they asked the voters. She's only 10 points behind when voters were asked to choose between Haley and a deceased Trump, almost within the margin of error.

 

[FlickShagwell]

Most of the country is sick of the extreme left, the extreme right

So they can vote for Joe Biden who is neither.

 

[EasyHawk]

Polls like this are dumb. I don't think anyone who isn't already all in on Trump has ever looked at the other GOPers in the field and not thought that they were better matchups against Biden.

Not sure how accurate it is, but I've seen it suggested the past couple of weeks that if Trump weren't running again, Biden likely wouldn't be either.

But this is also a moot point unless Trump is actually convicted and in prison before november next year - which is an open question as Trump is fighting tooth and nail to delay all the trials as much as possible.

Biden said recently that if it wasn’t for Trump, he might not be running. But does that mean he is the only Dem that can beat Trump? If he fell and hit his head in the next 10 months and was in a coma it is over, Trump wins?

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I heard something on CNN this morning about the increasingly narrow band of voters who will swing the election. 400,000 or so. Are you willing to bet that those people will turn out to vote against Trump?

I think at the end of the day Trump hardest ceiling in the history of ceilings.

 

[runkpanole]

Irrelevant.

He’ll be in jail in a few months.

We can only hope!

 

[OrlandNole]

Irrelevant.

He’ll be in jail in a few months.

He should be irrelevant, but your team will still vote for him.

 

[TylerJ23]

Dems have a problem, and his name is Biden.

I think they are relying on people voting for Biden just because he’s not Trump.

Not sure that’s a safe bet right now.

 

[gohawks50]

Dems have a problem, and his name is Biden.

I think they are relying on people voting for Biden just because he’s not Trump.

Not sure that’s a safe bet right now.

So are you saying if it's Biden vs Trump you are voting for Trump?

 

[StonesCat]

Dems have a problem, and his name is Biden.

I think they are relying on people voting for Biden just because he’s not Trump.

Not sure that’s a safe bet right now.

I've been saying that for months, Dems put a little too much faith in an informed electorate. Then you hear so if it's Biden vs Trump you'll vote Trump? Which is not the argument. There's likely a large number of voters who were previously Biden who may have zero enthusiasm and not vote at all. You can't just copy/paste the 2020 election again. I doubt there's many Trump voters from 2020 who can ever be persuaded to NOT vote for Trump in 2024. Democrat voters who aren't jazzed about Biden is a problem down ticket as well if they decide to stay home in November.

As for Haley, she couldn't have a better set up after Iowa. New Hampshire is an open primary and her home state is third. No excuses.