They’re independents and moderates. They hate Donald Trump and have mixed views of Joe Biden’s job performance as president. And they just might help Republicans close a historic gender gap.
Those are the voters who tell pollsters they’d vote for Nikki Haley over Biden. But if the 2024 election is a rematch of 2020, they would back Biden over Trump.
Polls clearly suggest Haley is a stronger general-election candidate than Trump, with Haley leading Biden by 4 points in the latest RealClearPolitics averages while Trump leads the president by 2 points and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leads by 1 point. Some polls even show Haley with gaudy, double-digit leads over Biden — including a Wall Street Journal pollreleased hours before this column published that showed her a stunning 17 points ahead of Biden (Trump led the president by 4).
A POLITICO analysis of recent polls — and data provided exclusively by Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin — shows Trump and Haley would assemble different electoral coalitions in matchups against Biden. And the differences aren’t just a curiosity: They’re undergirding Haley’s case as she seeks an unlikely, come-from-behind victory in the weeks leading up to the first caucuses and primaries.
“I beat Joe Biden by 10 to 13 points” in some of the polls, Haley told Fox News Channel this week, before pressing the electability argument down the ballot: “This is about governorships up and down the ticket. This is about House seats, Senate seats. This is about winning again.”
Those are the voters who tell pollsters they’d vote for Nikki Haley over Biden. But if the 2024 election is a rematch of 2020, they would back Biden over Trump.
Polls clearly suggest Haley is a stronger general-election candidate than Trump, with Haley leading Biden by 4 points in the latest RealClearPolitics averages while Trump leads the president by 2 points and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leads by 1 point. Some polls even show Haley with gaudy, double-digit leads over Biden — including a Wall Street Journal pollreleased hours before this column published that showed her a stunning 17 points ahead of Biden (Trump led the president by 4).
A POLITICO analysis of recent polls — and data provided exclusively by Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin — shows Trump and Haley would assemble different electoral coalitions in matchups against Biden. And the differences aren’t just a curiosity: They’re undergirding Haley’s case as she seeks an unlikely, come-from-behind victory in the weeks leading up to the first caucuses and primaries.
“I beat Joe Biden by 10 to 13 points” in some of the polls, Haley told Fox News Channel this week, before pressing the electability argument down the ballot: “This is about governorships up and down the ticket. This is about House seats, Senate seats. This is about winning again.”
Why Nikki Haley polls better against Joe Biden than Donald Trump does
A POLITICO analysis shows the former South Carolina governor is winning swaths of moderate voters who'd pick Joe Biden if Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination.
www.politico.com