Maybe a little bit of luck, but each coach has enough appearances to flatten that out over time. I think you are onto something, as Fran's unwillingness to recruit smaller, quicker players in favor of "long and lean," seems to have hurt us especially in the tourney. Our lack of overall athleticism seems to have gone down in favor of a bit more skill (loose observation) vs Dr. Tom seemed to generally have a bit more overall athleticism and certainly better guard play.
Maybe some rationalization with Davis winning every first round and Fran losing most? I think the Oregon matchup was terrible, but Dr. Tom seemed to have a number of 7-8-9 type seeds after those first two years of elite performance, which certainly seemed very competitive (e.g. Texas, ETSU, etc.).
I agree that we are not that far off though I do think it is time for a change. I give Fran credit for digging us out of the ditch, but as you noted, even some sweet 16's would have put a much brighter shine on his legacy.
I will never understand the smaller/quicker guard thing with Fran as well as his unwillingness to put any emphasis on defense. In the end, the up tempo thing is palatable and the product was usually pretty good. We always seem to be a player or two from getting over the hump.
It would be difficult to replicate the Lickliter era, so not as worried about that. Something in the realm of Alford is certainly possible, which would be a net negative. But I am willing to roll the dice and try and push into the next tier.