World Population Implosion

[LuteHawk]

50 years ago the world was in a panic about the prospect
of a population explosion. However, today the world faces
the opposite problem of population implosion.

The population is dropping rapidly in Europe, Asia, South
America and North America. Only Africa is still growing.
In the next 50 years the global birth rate will fall below the
replacement level.

The replacement rate in advanced nations is 2.1 children
per woman. In Japan it is 1.42, In Thailand it is 1.52,
in Taiwan it is 1.11 and in the United States it was 1.7
in 2018.

This information was gathered from the First Things
journal of November 2019.

 

[TJ8869]

Why is this a problem? This seems like a good thing.

 

[thewop]

Sweet, more for the rest of us!

 

[Hawkeyenuts66]

Fighting Global Warming, one less person at a time.

 

[Kozisek]

We need a good plague.

 

[MuscoHawk]

Why is this a problem? This seems like a good thing.

 

[h-hawk]

FWIW from a Google factoid.

"The UN as of 2017 predicts a decline of global population growth rate from +1.0% in 2020 to +0.5% in 2050 and to +0.1% in 2100. ... Randers' "most likely scenario" predicts a peak in the world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline."

So by the time it may decline, most of us will be dead anyway.

 

[whatsup13579er]

FWIW from a Google factoid.

"The UN as of 2017 predicts a decline of global population growth rate from +1.0% in 2020 to +0.5% in 2050 and to +0.1% in 2100. ... Randers' "most likely scenario" predicts a peak in the world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline."

So by the time it may decline, most of us will be dead anyway.

Considering climate change is going to end the world in 12 years, we'll all be dead. There will be massive population decline. Likely 100%. - AOC, probably

 

[HawkAttackDial911]

We need a good plague.

 

[Rifler]

Why is this a problem? This seems like a good thing.

Ultimately, this will be a good thing...

 

[dekhawk]

Declining population is not good for the economy

 

[Rifler]

Declining population is not good for the economy

It's good for the planet though...

 

[LuteHawk]

China had a "one child policy" which was a response
to the old population explosion fears. They employed
mandatory sterilization and forced abortion.

China's one child policy was from 1979 to 2015. Boys
were the child of choice and abortion claimed the lives
of girls.

 

[seminole97]

Declining population is not good for the economy

What matters is increasing productivity per capita.

Less population relative to natural resources is a positive for individual wealth potential.

 

[seminole97]

China has a "one child policy" which was a response
to the old population explosion fears. They employed
mandatory sterilization and forced abortion.

George Will just wrote an interesting column on the geopolitical consequences of varying birth rates.

 

[MplsHawk]

George Will just wrote an interesting column on the geopolitical consequences of varying birth rates.

Thanks. That was an interesting read.

One surprising statement made:

So, by 2040, when the U.S. population is around 380 million, its population will be younger than that of almost any other rich democracy, and the working-age population will still be expanding. In 2015, America had twice as many working-age people with undergraduate or graduate degrees as China had -- almost one-sixth of the world's total.

After the 2008 financial crisis, however, the fertility rate fell and, Eberstadt says, "shows no sign of recovering." Furthermore, the employment rate for men ages 25-54 is comparable to its level in 1939 -- during the Depression.

I was under the assumption that with a near zero unemployment rate, the employment rate would be correspondingly high. I didn't realize that isn't necessarily the case.

 

[lawsonhawk]

Thanks. That was an interesting read.

One surprising statement made:

So, by 2040, when the U.S. population is around 380 million, its population will be younger than that of almost any other rich democracy, and the working-age population will still be expanding. In 2015, America had twice as many working-age people with undergraduate or graduate degrees as China had -- almost one-sixth of the world's total.

After the 2008 financial crisis, however, the fertility rate fell and, Eberstadt says, "shows no sign of recovering." Furthermore, the employment rate for men ages 25-54 is comparable to its level in 1939 -- during the Depression.

I was under the assumption that with a near zero unemployment rate, the employment rate would be correspondingly high. I didn't realize that isn't necessarily the case.

A guy I know that worked for NASA his entire career in Spain said the problem they have is that college is free. When the economy went bad people went back to school or just wouldn't work because college grads think they're above a lot of occupations.

 

[LuteHawk]

In the next 50 years experts are predicting that India
will outgrow China. The roughly 35 years of the one
child policy in China has effected the female population
dramatically.

 

[BigDelHawk]

Why is this a problem? This seems like a good thing.

Our economic system is, in essence, a Ponzi scheme. You need an expanding base to pay for the retirement benefits and declining productivity of the elderly.

 

[The Tradition]

FWIW from a Google factoid.

"The UN as of 2017 predicts a decline of global population growth rate from +1.0% in 2020 to +0.5% in 2050 and to +0.1% in 2100. ... Randers' "most likely scenario" predicts a peak in the world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline."

So by the time it may decline, most of us will be dead anyway.

I hope I'm still alive in the early 2040s.

 

[BigDelHawk]

Ultimately, this will be a good thing...

Lots and lots of deflationary pressure on the world stage. Not as much in the USA, but a decreasing world means less opportunity for export.

 

[silasstarr]

Our economic system is, in essence, a Ponzi scheme. You need an expanding base to pay for the retirement benefits and declining productivity of the elderly.

True but also a recipe for disaster.

 

[BigDelHawk]

True but also a recipe for disaster.

Yep, the EU is poised for a long slow deflationary spiral beginning very soon. That is one of the reasons why many in England want out. They feel an economic future tied to the USA and the Commonwealth gives them more opportunity.

 

[ghost80]

In the next 50 years experts are predicting that India
will outgrow China. The roughly 35 years of the one
child policy in China has effected the female population
dramatically.

So that is why the OPs mom has been learning Mandarin.

 

[LuteHawk]

Families in India who are Hindu have always favored
boys over girls when it comes to giving birth. So
abortion and other means to make the male population
increase were used.