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WR Breakdown for 2018

Bryzzo

Team MVP
Aug 31, 2016
270
445
63
Known commodities:
1. Nick Easely:
Projected Stats: 50 Receptions - 550 yards - 4 TD's
2. Brandon Smith:
Projected Stats: 26 Receptions - 350 yards - 3 TD's
3. I. Smith Marsette:
Projected Stats: 25 Receptions - 330 yards - 3 TD's

Unknown commodities who will see some playing time:

Kyle Groeneweg - Senior WR who transferred into Iowa - put up some impressive return game stats at his previous school and figures to see some action in the return game along with Smith Marsette, Ivory Kelly Martin and Max Cooper.
Max Cooper - True Soph. who got his feet wet with a couple of punt returns last year - figures to see more time at punt returner. Good hands and good speed, so could be an occasional deep threat option.
Tyrone Tracy - True freshman most likely to play right away - could challenge for significant playing time.
Devonte Young - Junior wideout who has mostly played on special teams - had a very good Spring game last year but became the forgotten man once the season started - would be great to see him step up his game and challenge for a bigger role this Fall.

True Freshman/Redshirt Freshman who might see some playing time:
Henry Marchese
Calvin Lockett
Samson Evans
 
With all due respect, why can we think that Brandon Smith will have 25 catches. Didn't he have 2 last year? I agree a couple WR's need to step up, but we don't know who it's going to be. I hope you're right but I haven't seen anything out of Brandon to think he will do 25 catches.
 
Perhaps too high for all of them, but in terms of the mix, I'd think ISM gets more as a percentage.

If Iowa has about 65 snaps per game, I think 35 or so are runs. That means 30 passing attempts per game, of which around 13 are incompletions. Call it 17 completions per game, or roughly 200 for the regular season. How's this distribution sound?

TE: 75-80 receptions total
RB: 25-30
WR: 90-100
 
I think Brandon Smith will be the single most improved player on the Hawks roster this Fall and I would actually take the over on him getting 25 catches this Fall. He has the physical tools to be a difference maker, and if he can establish some consistency with Stanley, I think he has a chance for a pretty big season.

Totally understand some fans being cautious about Brandon until he proves himself on the field, but I think he will emerge as a big play receiver this year.
 
I would add Ragaini for true freshman expecting playing time as he is already on campus, which would probably put him ahead of the other incoming receivers. Also sounds like Samson is more running back than receiver at this point. I also think that ISM will have more receiving yards than Smith as he is our main explosive downfield threat.
 
I have heard some good things about Ragaini already, so I would agree that he has a good shot to see some playing time this Fall. He will be wearing #89 and I have heard that his game is similar to what Vandeberg provided for the Hawks. I have also heard that Samson Evans will most likely be played as a running back, along with Cameron Harrell switching to RB from DB. Will be very interesting to see which receivers emerge on the depth chart.
 
With all due respect, why can we think that Brandon Smith will have 25 catches. Didn't he have 2 last year? I agree a couple WR's need to step up, but we don't know who it's going to be. I hope you're right but I haven't seen anything out of Brandon to think he will do 25 catches.
Haven't you seen the practice photos of Brandon?
 
Thanks Bryzzo. Fans have differing expectations and favorites so you are bound to get a bit of disagreement about the numbers. Easley with at least 50 seems pretty safe IMO, I expect his total to be closer to 65 and maybe 6-7 TDs. Stanley's favorite target.

It could be now or never for Devonte Young. Zero receptions the past two seasons and has seen limited playing time in 3 games since arriving. Both Smith-Marsette and B.Smith jumped him as freshman last year. Wondering if he has been slowed by injuries or just hasn't developed as the coaches expected. He had a very good prep career. There must be more to the story.
 
Based on what we saw last year, the Iowa WRs should be able to get separation from coverage. However, except for Easely and to a lesser extent ISM, rest of the returning WRs demonstrated markedly poor catching skills last year. For all the physical gifts Smith might possess, he didn't seem a "natural" at catching the ball and i don't recall any iowa receiver who got better from one year to the next at this. If he is a good blocker, maybe he becomes a blocking WR and contributes solidly like Hillyer did a few years ago. I would love to be wrong on this of course and for Smith to dominate coverage.

Easely and ISM will get majority of WR receptions. Smith gets more reps but will split the remaining receptions with Groeneg+Ragaini.
 
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With all due respect, why can we think that Brandon Smith will have 25 catches. Didn't he have 2 last year? I agree a couple WR's need to step up, but we don't know who it's going to be. I hope you're right but I haven't seen anything out of Brandon to think he will do 25 catches.
I think that you have to bank on the position, every bit as much as on the player. Remember that Brandon is essentially in the ball-park of Iowa's #2 or #3 WR. With a new starting QB in '17 and a talented pass-catching RB competing for targets ... Iowa's #2 WR saw 28 receptions (with a lot of targets ... that were either dropped, defended, or simply errant) and the #3 WR saw 18 receptions.

In 2008, McNutt wasn't even among Iowa's top 6 WRs ... seeing that he was developing at the position after converting from QB. That year he had 1 reception. The following year he leapt ahead of both Trey Stross and Colin Sandeman (among others) to nab the #2 WR spot. In '09, he had 34 receptions.

In 2012, Tevaun Smith was a TR FR cutting his teeth ... and he ended up getting 3 receptions. In '13, his development leapt forward and he nabbed the #2 WR spot ... and he had 24 receptions. In 2014, our #2 WR had over 40 receptions and our #3 had 19 receptions.

In '14, VandeBerg was our #4 WR and got 14 receptions ... his production took a huge leap forward in '15, where he ended up being our most trusted WR and got 65 receptions.

My big concern is that it sounds like Ihmir is still a little immature ... consequently, he may make smaller developmental gains than some of our other guys. The implication may be that more targets end up going Brandon's way.
 
Based on what we saw last year, the Iowa WRs should be able to get separation from coverage. However, except for Easely and to a lesser extent ISM, rest of the returning WRs demonstrated markedly poor catching skills last year. For all the physical gifts Smith might possess, he didn't seem a "natural" at catching the ball and i don't recall any iowa receiver who got better from one year to the next at this. If he is a good blocker, maybe he becomes a blocking WR and contributes solidly like Hillyer did a few years ago. I would love to be wrong on this of course and for Smith to dominate coverage.

Easely and ISM will get majority of WR receptions. Smith gets more reps but will split the remaining receptions with Groeneg+Ragaini.
For a young player - "poor catching skills" typically translates to "poor focus." Given Brandon's high school production ... he can most certainly catch the ball. However, the transition to the college game likely just impacted him mentally a little. He went from being a dominant force in high school to being a easily covered newbie by B1G corners ... it's understandable that it was initially a bit of a blow to his ego. Self-doubt likely crept in a little ... and he may have even been a little overwhelmed by the speed of the game at the college level. Lastly, there is so much more to a college offense than a high school offense ... so young players can also get caught "thinking" too much too ... and that can negatively impact their play.

In contrast, most fans had far fewer expectations of ISM. Ihmir had a huge SR campaign at WR in high school ... but, before that, most folks projected him more at corner (than at WR). Consequently, Ihmir probably approached his FR season at Iowa as if he had less to lose ... and consequently, he was able to be a little "looser" when playing. Thus, at least initially, fewer confidence issues affected him (compared to Brandon). Of course, given all the big-play drops he had ... his confidence may have gotten a little more shaken has the season progressed (I'm not certain).
 
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Would not be surprised if our TE's have over 100 Receptions combined....Fant and Hock are best combo we have had at Iowa-ever. That says a lot. I could see Fant at 50+ and Hock at 30+....and the rest having 20+. Not to mention BF is now TE's coach who just so happened to coach two of the most talented TE combos in NFL history in Gronk and Hernandez.....we need WR's to step up, but we have TE's that can also help stretch the field. Very excited to see how this all plays out, bc if they start bracketing our TE's it is imperative that we have WR's that can get open in one on one situations and could open up some huge plays on simple routs like slants and hitches. Furthermore, if TE's are doubled they could easily "block" those two defenders on a vert and run a draw behind it. Our TE's could open up many many things for other positions
 
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Samson Evans
Evans slotted for RB to start, I believe. If there is a guy on the team you could designate as a "utility" player, Evans would be it IMO. WR, RB, WCQB, PR, ST cover... his skills and background could fill in at a number of positions if needed.
 
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Would not be surprised if our TE's have over 100 Receptions combined....Fant and Hock are best combo we have had at Iowa-ever. That says a lot. I could see Fant at 50+ and Hock at 30+....and the rest having 20+. Not to mention BF is now TE's coach who just so happened to coach two of the most talented TE combos in NFL history in Gronk and Hernandez.....we need WR's to step up, but we have TE's that can also help stretch the field. Very excited to see how this all plays out, bc if they start bracketing our TE's it is imperative that we have WR's that can get open in one on one situations and could open up some huge plays on simple routs like slants and hitches. Furthermore, if TE's are doubled they could easily "block" those two defenders on a vert and run a draw behind it. Our TE's could open up many many things for other positions
I could even see our #3 TE pull off around 8-12 receptions this year too.
 
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Great thread and analysis, you can't underestimate how big a factor having multiple pass catching TE's will do for the WRs! It will open up the field a bit more and the WRs will see primarily 1:1 coverage. I saw the new #89 Ragaini will be a better Meerkat when it's all said and done, has a year of prep school already and played some lacrosse.
 
Great thread and analysis, you can't underestimate how big a factor having multiple pass catching TE's will do for the WRs! It will open up the field a bit more and the WRs will see primarily 1:1 coverage. I saw the new #89 Ragaini will be a better Meerkat when it's all said and done, has a year of prep school already and played some lacrosse.
Yes, but has he played much chess? You know he has to be able to out think the opponent too!:D
 
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With Nate having a year of starting under his belt and the improvement in the WR corps plus our TEs, our passing game could be lights out this year. Will be exciting to watch by the time we begin the B1G schedule.
 
With all due respect, why can we think that Brandon Smith will have 25 catches.

He is #1 on the two-deeps this Spring. If he is a starting WR, he will probably get 25 catches.

I know most people think our coaches don't know how to coach, but they appear to think very highly of Smith.

----

Copeland raved about the play-making ability that Smith has brought to the table this spring and said he has "high expectations" for the native of Lake Cormorant, Mississippi.

“We had a talk before spring ball even started that, ‘OK, now’s your time. There’s no more senior in front of me. There’s no more excuses,’” Copeland said. “’It’s your time to shine. It’s your job to win. It’s your job to earn.’

“And he’s taken that on, full steam ahead. He has done some things every day. … He has done something that stands out, that catches your eye, like, ‘Wow.’ That’s something I haven’t seen in the past.”
 
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I believe that Brandon was a legit stud high jumper in high school (think he cleared 6'7 or 6'8) so I expect to see some endzone corner fade routes to him this year and to see if he out jump his man for some TD's.
 
He is #1 on the two-deeps this Spring. If he is a starting WR, he will probably get 25 catches.

I know most people think our coaches don't know how to coach, but they appear to think very highly of Smith.

----

Copeland raved about the play-making ability that Smith has brought to the table this spring and said he has "high expectations" for the native of Lake Cormorant, Mississippi.

“We had a talk before spring ball even started that, ‘OK, now’s your time. There’s no more senior in front of me. There’s no more excuses,’” Copeland said. “’It’s your time to shine. It’s your job to win. It’s your job to earn.’

“And he’s taken that on, full steam ahead. He has done some things every day. … He has done something that stands out, that catches your eye, like, ‘Wow.’ That’s something I haven’t seen in the past.”

I have no problem with our coaches and I know they can coach. I saw the coaches comments after I commented earlier and they do make me feel better. I hope Brandon catches 50 balls this Fall but I do need to see that improvement.
 
With all due respect, why can we think that Brandon Smith will have 25 catches. Didn't he have 2 last year? I agree a couple WR's need to step up, but we don't know who it's going to be. I hope you're right but I haven't seen anything out of Brandon to think he will do 25 catches.

I can understand the skepticism with B Smith. He was a true freshman last year that received extremely limited playing time. The college game hasn't slowed down for him yet.

Smith did have three catches last year and he had a few drops. Maybe 3? Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. Those were basically the only targets he got last year. He had 7 targets.

The kid did have 200+ receptions, 3600+ receiving yards and 41 TDs in his high school career. He has some speed, leaping ability and a insanely huge hands.

I have no worries about whether or not he can catch the ball. He just needed the game to slow down for him mentally. And from what the coaches are saying about him, it sounds like it may have.

Whether he has 25 catches or not, I have no clue. But IMO, I wouldn't be surprised by more than that.
 
Iowa is replacing 56 catches from departed players. Given the maturity of the QB and the year of PT for ISM, Smith and Cooper and, of course, Easley, probably means the offense throws a little more (I think Stanley had 351 attempts) so lets say there's' 70 receptions out there.

Easley is a good college Z receiver. Assuming the TEs are even better Easley's little dig routes can be really productive. Easley can move into the slot and he's pretty good at getting open off of various motion plays. Barring injury I think we have a good player for that spot.

Coming off their recruiting times, now a year old, Cooper was the fastest guy in the 40 and ISM was the slowest. Doyle and natural work can change that sequence but you gotta think Cooper still pretty fast-although we have absolutely no idea what he looks like at receiver. Smith got so few downs its pretty hard to say what he can do; although the above posters opinion that Smith looked a little lost or unfocused, etc... seems pretty accurate.

ISM has a huge leg up on everyone else. Far more experience in live fire. He's shown a little sweet and a little sour-big plays and idiotic plays. I think ISM will be the guy that steps up and becomes our X guy that drags the defense down field with enough big plays to open up a lot more of the offense.

The Iowa offense really would take off if any of the receivers could step up and demand double coverage, and certainly no one has demonstrated that degree of talent as yet. But if it happens we should have a pretty good season in 2018.
 
Iowa is replacing 56 catches from departed players. Given the maturity of the QB and the year of PT for ISM, Smith and Cooper and, of course, Easley, probably means the offense throws a little more (I think Stanley had 351 attempts) so lets say there's' 70 receptions out there.

Easley is a good college Z receiver. Assuming the TEs are even better Easley's little dig routes can be really productive. Easley can move into the slot and he's pretty good at getting open off of various motion plays. Barring injury I think we have a good player for that spot.

Coming off their recruiting times, now a year old, Cooper was the fastest guy in the 40 and ISM was the slowest. Doyle and natural work can change that sequence but you gotta think Cooper still pretty fast-although we have absolutely no idea what he looks like at receiver. Smith got so few downs its pretty hard to say what he can do; although the above posters opinion that Smith looked a little lost or unfocused, etc... seems pretty accurate.

ISM has a huge leg up on everyone else. Far more experience in live fire. He's shown a little sweet and a little sour-big plays and idiotic plays. I think ISM will be the guy that steps up and becomes our X guy that drags the defense down field with enough big plays to open up a lot more of the offense.

The Iowa offense really would take off if any of the receivers could step up and demand double coverage, and certainly no one has demonstrated that degree of talent as yet. But if it happens we should have a pretty good season in 2018.
Trying to shoot for a middle-ground ... I'd anticipate that the Hawks will probably have around 370 pass attempts to around 510 rushes. If I'm accurate in my expectation that Stanley's completion percentage will trend up ... say we suppose that he gets up to a 60% completion percentage. That leads us to around 222 receptions ... 23 more receptions than last year.

In losing Wadley, we've lost a highly dangerous pass-catching RB. However, going off of the sort of numbers we've seen in the past ... I'd look for the number of RB receptions to hover around 25 (down 12 receptions from '17). Those are essentially 12 receptions more than can go to WRs or TEs.

Thus, this running tally suggests that we could be seeing in the ballpark of 35 more receptions going toward Iowa WRs or TEs. Who will get the catches?

- While I believe Easley's yard per catch goes up ... I'm not certain that his reception numbers would go up too. Last year Easley was an unknown quantity ... thus, defenses will game-plan to limit his production. On the flip side ... he'll also be improved (as will Stanley). What are the implications with regard to production? Again ... I have no clue.

- Given that Brandon Smith is an unknown quantity ... maybe he just replaces VandeBerg's '17 production outright. This means that his number of catches will go up from 3 to closer to 30. Maybe he'll be even more productive ... maybe not. All the same, for the purposes of an estimate ... it's not a bad place to start. This still doesn't point to where the jump of 35 receptions will go.

- I do recall that Fant was targeted a lot last year ... and many of the attempts were either misses due to drops, balls defended, or poor throws. All the same, I think that it is safe to assume that Iowa WANTS to get the ball to Fant. Furthermore, I'm willing to bet that the completion percentage to Fant goes up significantly too. Thus, I could see Fant's number of receptions drift north of 40 ... so that points to increase of at least around 10 more receptions.

- It's absolutely crazy that Hockenson got 24 receptions as a RS FR (edited thanks to feedback). If Fant gets as many as 40 receptions ... is it even possible for Hock to get more? Maybe! Let's suppose his number in '18 gets closer to 30 receptions.

- If we're supposing that Brandon Smith lands nearly around 30 receptions ... then maybe it's reasonable to consider ISM's number land in a comparable ball-park. Maybe that number could have a higher ceiling if he spent less time on his phone and more time scouting opponents and self-scouting in the film-room ... I doubt it happens. Young guys sometimes need to see other guys "catch them" before they listen to the wisdom of their mentors. All the same, this still would mark an increase in number of receptions for ISM.

This still ends up leaving around 7 remaining receptions to get distributed among the remaining Iowa WRs. Maybe the number to Brandon Smith is an overestimate ... and some of the difference (along with the aforementioned 7) get distributed among Groeneweg, Cooper, Ragaini, and Tyrone Tracy.

Who knows? We'll see!
 
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Trying to shoot for a middle-ground ... I'd anticipate that the Hawks will probably have around 370 pass attempts to around 510 rushes. If I'm accurate in my expectation that Stanley's completion percentage will trend up ... say we suppose that he gets up to a 60% completion percentage. That leads us to around 222 receptions ... 23 more receptions than last year.

In losing Wadley, we've lost a highly dangerous pass-catching RB. However, going off of the sort of numbers we've seen in the past ... I'd look for the number of RB receptions to hover around 25 (down 12 receptions from '17). Those are essentially 12 receptions more than can go to WRs or TEs.

Thus, this running tally suggests that we could be seeing in the ballpark of 35 more receptions going toward Iowa WRs or TEs. Who will get the catches?

- While I believe Easley's yard per catch goes up ... I'm not certain that his reception numbers would go up too. Last year Easley was an unknown quantity ... thus, defenses will game-plan to limit his production. On the flip side ... he'll also be improved (as will Stanley). What are the implications with regard to production? Again ... I have no clue.

- Given that Brandon Smith is an unknown quantity ... maybe he just replaces VandeBerg's '17 production outright. This means that his number of catches will go up from 3 to closer to 30. Maybe he'll be even more productive ... maybe not. All the same, for the purposes of an estimate ... it's not a bad place to start. This still doesn't point to where the jump of 35 receptions will go.

- I do recall that Fant was targeted a lot last year ... and many of the attempts were either misses due to drops, balls defended, or poor throws. All the same, I think that it is safe to assume that Iowa WANTS to get the ball to Fant. Furthermore, I'm willing to bet that the completion percentage to Fant goes up significantly too. Thus, I could see Fant's number of receptions drift north of 40 ... so that points to increase of at least around 10 more receptions.

- It's absolutely crazy that Hockenson got 24 receptions as a TR FR. If Fant gets as many as 40 receptions ... is it even possible for fans to get more? Maybe! Let's suppose his number in '18 gets closer to 30 receptions.

- If we're supposing that Brandon Smith lands nearly around 30 receptions ... then maybe it's reasonable to consider ISM's number land in a comparable ball-park. Maybe that number could have a higher ceiling if he spent less time on his phone and more time scouting opponents and self-scouting in the film-room ... I doubt it happens. Young guys sometimes need to see other guys "catch them" before they listen to the wisdom of their mentors. All the same, this still would mark an increase in number of receptions for ISM.

This still ends up leaving around 7 remaining receptions to get distributed among the remaining Iowa WRs. Maybe the number to Brandon Smith is an overestimate ... and some of the difference (along with the aforementioned 7) get distributed among Groeneweg, Cooper, Ragaini, and Tyrone Tracy.

Who knows? We'll see!
Nitpicking, but wasn't he a redshirt?
 
My main concern is for ISM and B. Smith. Can ISM become a consistent and reliable threat and will B. Smith get up to speed, take on the challenge and bring the attitude necessary to use his ability to its full potential. I'd greatly like to see things just click for him and he takes off. Otherwise if he has a career like Hillyer, it is what it is. Ragaini will make noise.
 
I would like to see Tyrone Tracy in the mix. 1) I think he is the kind of playmaker we haven’t around here at WR for awhile. 2) his younger siblings may take notice of how quickly you can contribute around here.

Obviously he is going to be behind all these other WR when camp opens. My gut feeling is that he is the kind of WR where the excitement really starts AFTER he makes the catch. A real YAC stat stuffer kind of player.
 
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I think Brandon Smith will be the single most improved player on the Hawks roster this Fall and I would actually take the over on him getting 25 catches this Fall. He has the physical tools to be a difference maker, and if he can establish some consistency with Stanley, I think he has a chance for a pretty big season.

Totally understand some fans being cautious about Brandon until he proves himself on the field, but I think he will emerge as a big play receiver this year.

Agree and I love what Copeland had to say about Brandon. If T Tracy can make the switch early he could really help that position. He's going to be a very good player, it's a matter of when and where.
 
My main concern is for ISM and B. Smith. Can ISM become a consistent and reliable threat and will B. Smith get up to speed, take on the challenge and bring the attitude necessary to use his ability to its full potential. I'd greatly like to see things just click for him and he takes off. Otherwise if he has a career like Hillyer, it is what it is. Ragaini will make noise.
The comparison to Hillyer is interesting. Both guys are big, physical guys ... who put up prolific high school numbers. I honestly don't know how they compare speed-wise ... although it was pretty apparent that Hillyer's speed was rather pedestrian. However, an important key difference is that Brandon Smith has huge hands and was a successful high school high-jumper ... thus, even if Smith isn't appreciably faster than Hillyer ... if he can use his body to shield defenders well and then win "jump balls" ... that's still the sort of skill set that can help him be a pretty productive college WR for us. Given that Copeland has referred to Brandon as being a pretty explosive athlete ... maybe the implication is that he has athleticism that is more comparable to Marvin McNutt's. If this latter comparison is accurate ... then maybe Brandon's production might meet or exceed expectation?

Also, before I hit too much of a panic button concerning ISM ... it's still true that DJK was quite an immature WR for us too. As we all recall ... DJK also was pretty productive for us too. Of course, through his career, he didn't show much development past his SO year ... but, at the very least, he was a very solid contributor for us. ISM doesn't seem to be having the same sort of style over substance issues as DJK ... but he is similarly immature and could do more to develop and hone his craft.
 
I would like to see Tyrone Tracy in the mix. 1) I think he is the kind of playmaker we haven’t around here at WR for awhile. 2) his younger siblings may take notice of how quickly you can contribute around here.

Obviously he is going to be behind all these other WR when camp opens. My gut feeling is that he is the kind of WR where the excitement really starts AFTER he makes the catch. A real YAC stat stuffer kind of player.
I cannot help it ... but I have a feeling that Tracy will develop into a highly productive WR for us. I don't know if that will translate to a lot of production as a TR FR ... however, I'm willing to bet that he'll have a chance to earn quality reps. A big feather in his cap is that he's a very abrupt athletes ... really nice quickness with nice mutli-directional acceleration. It's that "suddenness" with your change in velocity ... that is what helps an offensive skill guy "juke" a defender. Tyrone has the sort of skill set, where I could see him eventually playing all of our WR spots ... the sort of guy who you want to get the ball in space (but he's more than that too).

Anyhow, I see him as being a great complement to the rest of the WRs in the room.

Furthermore, I wouldn't sleep on either Ragaini or Cooper either ... however, we'll have to see how those guys develop too.
 
With all due respect, why can we think that Brandon Smith will have 25 catches. Didn't he have 2 last year? I agree a couple WR's need to step up, but we don't know who it's going to be. I hope you're right but I haven't seen anything out of Brandon to think he will do 25 catches.
Yeah, I think we know he's physically capable of it, but B. Smith is firmly in the "unknown" category for me. And I'd bet that Devonte Young transfers by this time next year.
 
Yeah, I think we know he's physically capable of it, but B. Smith is firmly in the "unknown" category for me. And I'd bet that Devonte Young transfers by this time next year.
Devonte has been plugged in enough that he's been a special-teamer for the past two years. Will he be able to make enough strides to push for more legit playing time? Dunno. I know that Mo Brown didn't contribute much until he burst not he scene for us as a JR. However, on the flip side ... there really hasn't been much buzz generated by Devonte either. Where there is no smoke ... there is likely no fire. So yeah ... you might be right that he'll leave sooner rather than later.
 
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