2024 Lineup and Expectation
- Thread starter Mooresvillewolf45
- Start date
Kemerer and Marinelli proved they were good enough to win with 3 combined undefeated number 1 seeds. Program did a good job of getting them really good at wrestling. Really bad job of helping them win the big matches when it counted. Add Eierman and Woods as transfers who were clearly good enough to beat everybody at their weight class. I know that because they did! 3/4 of those guys lost to wrestlers they'd previously beaten.
This is the disconnect we have. You circle back to initial recruiting rankings and say "well these guys weren't locks." But they clearly became good enough to win. That's a credit to the staff! They absolutely do a good job of producing good (if not always exciting) wrestlers.
My beef is that they do a poor, well below average job of getting those guys to execute at their best in March. And that's what I want to see improvement on. And that is going to make every other part of their job easier, even if catching PSU is impossible.
Lineup:
125 - Ayala
133 - Teske
141 - Woods
149 - Voinovich
157 - Franek
165 - Caliendo
174 - Arnold
184 - Swafford
197 - Franklin
285 - Kueter
This team will possibly be the lowest finish of Tom's (Iowa) career. 4 AAs:
Ayala - AA
Woods - Champ
Franek - AA
Caliendo - AA
Kueter has an outside chance based on talent alone. So hopefully he's in the room full time - because we are going to be hurting.
125 - Ayala
133 - Teske
141 - Woods
149 - Voinovich
157 - Franek
165 - Caliendo
174 - Arnold
184 - Swafford
197 - Franklin
285 - Kueter
This team will possibly be the lowest finish of Tom's (Iowa) career. 4 AAs:
Ayala - AA
Woods - Champ
Franek - AA
Caliendo - AA
Kueter has an outside chance based on talent alone. So hopefully he's in the room full time - because we are going to be hurting.
Kemerer didn't win because of injuries more than bad coaching. He also got screwed with 2020 covid. But, I will say his best actual chance was 2021 against Starocci. However, I disagree with that being a coaching thing. Once Starocci had wrestled him, I don't think he was ever losing to him again. He learned what it took to keep Kemerer off his attacks and was simply going to beat him in OT due to superior riding skills.
As far as Marinelli being good enough to win based on his record, you ignore that 11 of his wins were by 3 or less to even get there. That, along with his style, showed he simply didn't have the skillset to go through 5 matches against the top 33. Hell, this is even more apparent by the fact he never even made the Finals. To go even further, he never even made it to the consi-finals(3rd place match).
So, in my opinion, where our disconnect sits, is that you believe they weren't executing their best in March, while I am saying their best was often barely above many of their top opponents during the regular season and those guys stepped it up in March, while Marinelli at the very least was very much a Metcalf type guy. He was almost always at his best the ENTIRE season. He got to the post season undefeated because he was nearly always wrestling at his best level. On top of all that, wrestling that way wreaked havoc on his body and he was extremely beat up.
So, to be clear and up front, going into NCAA's those seasons, while trying to be as impartial as you can, did you go into NCAA"s considering them significant favorites over the field? If so, how many seasons for each? To be transparent, the ONLY time I did was Kemerer losing to Starocci. However, after watching that match I came away realizing Starocci was simply better. Two more championships later, I am fully convinced of that.
Finally, I did agree that the new crop of top guys need to win titles. I think they have multiple guys that have the skillsets to be significant favorites in March. If they don't get it done, anything short of significant injury or illness would make me seriously question coaching.
This is 100% hindsight bias. Not worth continuing to argue with someone who is intent on defending this staff when the numbers are clear. "The guys who our wrestlers beat two weeks ago were just simply better and couldn't be beaten" is not a serious argument, I'm sorry.
You'd have a point if it were a few instances. Matches are close and within the margins. It's that they always lose (minus Spencer). That is clearly a coaching issue that needs fixed.
Dude... you're going way too far into the weeds to just say that TNT haven't done their jobs.
Whether it's injury, gameplanning, peaking, skills - the job is March. and TNT and co vastly underperform there in comparison to their regular seasons and even recruiting rankings.
Bingo! At the end of the day, even by MSU's logic, TNT are doing a bad job and need to do better.
We can definitely agree to disagree. You both have been very vocal on here when it comes to directing negativity towards the coaching staff. I think they are doing the 2nd best job in the country. In fact, I don't think any other staff is close. Your "bad job" has them being clearly the 2nd best team in the country over their tenure, while the #1 team is doing so many things at an unprecedented level and comparing ANYONE to them as a realistic measuring stick is folly.
Can they do better in several areas? Absolutely. Are they doing a "bad job"? That is beyond ridiculous to say...
You can write a 10,000 word essay on all the little reasons why a top guy didn't win an NCAA title for *any team.*
It doesn't change the fact that Iowa has done a worse job of overcoming those circumstances than their peers.
Just for fun, an example: 2021 Nick Lee
Heading into the finals, he's facing a wrestler with a 2-1 career win advantage over him, including two weeks prior. He's a clear underdog. Furthermore, he starts the match down 1-0 because he knows he can't go underneath Eierman, nor can he ride Eierman. In order to win, he will have to take down one of the best scramblers in the country two times. And each time he attempts to do so, he gives Eierman his best chance to get a takedown and essentially ice the match.
To overcome these negative factors, he wrestles a smart, calm match. He never exposes himself to danger. His early attacks are all at the edge of the mat where he can get out of bounds if he's in danger. He waits until Eierman is tired to attack in the center, and uses his fireman's carry to avoid a scramble. At no point does he panic or force anything that isn't there.
Now look at Eierman. He knows he's up 1-0 the moment the whistle blows. Yet, he spends the entire match shooting from space. He completely wears himself out trying to get to positions *that aren't even his good positions.* Entering OT, he should be in the driver's seat. He knows he has the advantage in rideouts...except he has nothing left in the tank. He panics, tries to force a dumb upperbody position immediately in SV, leading to an easy inside trip to lose.
You can't come up with a better example of TNT getting outcoached in the most important moment. Everything in Eierman's career led to that moment and the plan the staff sent him out there with was to try to do something he's not good at until he gassed and it cost him a title.
It doesn't change the fact that Iowa has done a worse job of overcoming those circumstances than their peers.
Just for fun, an example: 2021 Nick Lee
Heading into the finals, he's facing a wrestler with a 2-1 career win advantage over him, including two weeks prior. He's a clear underdog. Furthermore, he starts the match down 1-0 because he knows he can't go underneath Eierman, nor can he ride Eierman. In order to win, he will have to take down one of the best scramblers in the country two times. And each time he attempts to do so, he gives Eierman his best chance to get a takedown and essentially ice the match.
To overcome these negative factors, he wrestles a smart, calm match. He never exposes himself to danger. His early attacks are all at the edge of the mat where he can get out of bounds if he's in danger. He waits until Eierman is tired to attack in the center, and uses his fireman's carry to avoid a scramble. At no point does he panic or force anything that isn't there.
Now look at Eierman. He knows he's up 1-0 the moment the whistle blows. Yet, he spends the entire match shooting from space. He completely wears himself out trying to get to positions *that aren't even his good positions.* Entering OT, he should be in the driver's seat. He knows he has the advantage in rideouts...except he has nothing left in the tank. He panics, tries to force a dumb upperbody position immediately in SV, leading to an easy inside trip to lose.
You can't come up with a better example of TNT getting outcoached in the most important moment. Everything in Eierman's career led to that moment and the plan the staff sent him out there with was to try to do something he's not good at until he gassed and it cost him a title.
You keep missing the point. They are doing a bad job...at what we're actually talking about: winning individual titles.
I am not missing that point, although your "delivery" absolutely implies it is much more than just that part. I simply don't look at it the way you do. You are going full on pass/fail, while I don't see it that way and have given a plethora of reasons why. So, that is why I said I am fine to agree to disagree. You obviously are 100% rigid on this point and are using it as a straightforward indictment on coaching.
If Lee only won once or not at all, I would 100% be on your side. If any of those were barely AAing or flat out not making the podium, I would 100% be on your side. I just don't see them just falling short of winning it all as nearly the indictment of "bad" coaching as you do.
With that said, I DO understand why you feel that way and it is why I have relented enough to say I am willing to agree to disagree...if that isn't enough for you, I am sorry, but it is all I can give!
It's hard to disentangle their coaching performance from the massive benefits they get from simply being at Iowa. It's a program with elite resources, tradition, and institutional backing. It would be pretty hard to be bad at coaching Iowa.
I'm not sure that there would be a better option than TNT. I'm also not sure that TNT are the best option available.
For years, people called Tom Brady a system quarterback who benefitted from Belichick. Now look at Belichick without him. Do any of us believe TNT would have these results anywhere other than Iowa?
yes if tom stayed at vtech they would be dominating acc,challenging for team trophy every year and kale would still be at iowa state.
Not that it really matters, but just curious, have you ever wrestled or coached wrestling??
Both.
Why does indisputable factual information make people so defensive around here? We're Iowa fans, not Tom Brands fans (though I do like him a lot). He produces a lot of great wrestlers. He doesn't produce a lot of champs and does a worse job converting #1 seeds into champs on average than his peer coaches. That is indisputable, sky is blue stuff. The only question is whether you think that's a big problem. MSU doesn't and that's his prerogative. We all have different standards on what we want from Brands. Do you think it's a problem?
Note, I'm not calling for his job. I want him to improve. The idea he needs to improve has received more pushback than I expected from a fan base that typically expects titles.
No I just want him to do better! I'm not 100% opposed to a change if it's a huge move, but I think Tom is a great coach who hasn't performed up to his standards in certain areas over the last decade.
I do think time is running out. If he doesn't produce a champ from this next group of recruits, it's probably time. He'll be entering his 60's anyway.
Start winning on Saturday night and I'll shut up. The only guy who's done that since 2017 was beating Olympians in practice matches while he was still in high school. It's been a long time since Tom put a guy who wasn't a generational high school wrestler on top of the stand.
And I have no issue with really any of what you said above. I do think it is time for him to make sure his best recruits reach the very top. I say that believing they have done a better job recently in, both identifying talent that can and should win and actually recruiting them successfully.
Now, I do say that having the confidence in them, to fully expect them, to do what needs to be done to get Arnold and Ferrari on the top before they are done wrestling.
Also, I am not against strong criticism of their coaching. I have even been quite adamant that I think they are way too "one dimensional" across the board in the neutral position. They spend so much time handfighting and pressing inside ties that there is too much lag in offensive attacks. I absolutely want to see more separation, level changes and even feints. With today's wrestlers being so skilled in positioning, the latter are really the only ways I see to get opponents out of position and at least open them up to counters when they re-attack off those "feints" or maybe even get out of position due to them...
when the bull,spencer,kem,jwar, murin, desanto and teasdale all went iowa i said now we will see what tom can do with better wrestlers. i admit it was not as much as most of us hoped,but those guys scraped and represented most of them are great hawkeyes.if you can't support your team when they don't win it all there's room on that pst train. it is not my style to call for someone's job and i do not have a crystal ball to tell me who the can't miss coach would be,neither do any of you experts. i do like our guys,they chose iowa.
solid back and forth on here.
The “criticism” that’s been grumbling around here is more because our hopes get so high for our Hawkeye squad only to be let down.
We say, next year or make other excuses or our hawks, but the let downs are more frequent seems like.
Come march, nobody has been more optimistic than me these last several years.
Guy can only take so much.
I think the butt hurt people that don’t like us criticizing the team forget why and where it’s coming from.
The “criticism” that’s been grumbling around here is more because our hopes get so high for our Hawkeye squad only to be let down.
We say, next year or make other excuses or our hawks, but the let downs are more frequent seems like.
Come march, nobody has been more optimistic than me these last several years.
Guy can only take so much.
I think the butt hurt people that don’t like us criticizing the team forget why and where it’s coming from.
I want some of that action as well. There's no way this talent will be outside the top 5...gamblers or not. The only exception might me TnT doing a ton of redshirting for the future, but I don't see that happening.
This is a great example of one of your arguments that just doesn't seem to make sense to me. I'm not judging, just providing a perspective...
The argument was solely about recruiting. Not retention. If a guy commits and spends a year in your room, his leaving doesn’t negate that fact…
You do understand the difference between a verbal commit and a signed commit, right? Does Chittum count in his recruiting class rankings for Iowa?
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What a negative Nelly. I’m guessing spoons doesn’t agree. I’m pretty sure he has at least six penciled into the finals with four champs? And I prefer his “facts,” on this one.
Jeezus, I hate it, but that is a pretty compelling post.
Arnold winning only one, I would bet the over but would be OK with it. Ferrari only winning one would be a bust and I would bet a lot on him winning multiple titles. Otherwise I like what you wrote!
Rather than make what might appear to be trolling comments may I ask what your top 5 teams are.
I see this as an even money bet I.e iowa being in the top 5 but I have a hard time grasping all the possibilities .
After Penn state I have Cornell finishing second assuming they all wrestle and assuming the iowa gamblers truly are out for the year . I’m sadly super high on Shapiro and think he will add many team points . I say sadly cause I want to see Levi win it all
Assuming Robb comes back which it looks like he will and can wrestle to past expectations Nebraska is certainly in the mix as well . For me 3 thru 7 is all way to close to call , and yes I know a lot of people aren’t picking Cornell for number 2
Yes and he absolutely did count for that recruiting class. Google is your friend. Feel free to use it…
He does not count for that recruiting class when the school year starts if he is not on the team. You are being purposely obtuse. You are saying Chittum is included in current recruiting ratings? Ratings are not set in stone. You really just like to argue.
My friend, I think Levi will have to stumble mightily to not win it all at 57. After another year in the room I think the rest of the field will be long shots.
For me it's Penn State and then about 6 teams you can throw a blanket over and do some blind picking. Depending on who's healthy (i.e., Ayala) and who's banned from NCAAs I think by the end of the year Iowa will have a chance of finishing 2nd but probably 3rd. Like you I think Cornell, if they bring all their weapons will finish 2nd and then teams like Mizz, Mich, VT, NE, and maybe ASU will challenge Iowa for 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc. That said, I've got to think TnT will have the team in a position to challenge for 2nd or 3rd and I just don't see them falling past 5th. And FWIW, I still see my man Kennedy making it into the lineup. I don't think a NDSU transfer beats him for a position when all is said and done. Thanks for the comments.
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