3/31 Midwestern Severe Weather Outbreak thread - High Risk in Iowa
- Thread starter Colonoscopy
- Start date
Now that you say it, I think they did take some damage back in 2008.
- Sep 13, 2002
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- Sep 13, 2002
- 94,065
- 190,285
- 113
Last night as whatever the hell it was passed through south of us (probably whatever hit Solon), I could hear that damn thing here near Kirkwood. They talk about the freight train roar...well, they ain't lying.
Had the field debris type stuff all over the yard when I went outside this morning.
Crazy event for sure. Thankfully all I got for storms was the gust front from that last line as it passed through. Was fairly calm wind-wise, then holy crap thar she blows!
Had the field debris type stuff all over the yard when I went outside this morning.
Crazy event for sure. Thankfully all I got for storms was the gust front from that last line as it passed through. Was fairly calm wind-wise, then holy crap thar she blows!
Ef2 and Ef3 are strong. Ef4 and Ef5 are violent. Forecast was correct.
Another round of possibly strong tornadoes on Tuesday in Iowa.
FYI, at some point I'd assume someone will start a new thread on it.
Anyway, if you thought yesterday afternoon and evening was "fun", Tuesday is beginning to shape up as more or less a carbon copy if not worse.
Per the NWS QC office this afternoon...(in short, "here we go again").
Concerns continue to grow for another significant severe
thunderstorm outbreak for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
Overall predictability in the large scale and synoptic features is
above average for a forecast on Day 4 with fairly good agreement
on the surface low and frontal positions and evolution. This is
confirmed through cluster analysis from the 01.00Z GEFS/Canadian/ECMWF
ensembles.
Gulf of Mexico moisture and a sharp warm front looks to surge
north across the area Tuesday with the means of the
GEFS/Canadian/ECMWF ensembles all showing a surface low around 988
mb in northwest Iowa by 7 pm. The warm front is paralleling and
just north of Highway 20 with a 40-50% probability of afternoon
SBCAPE values over 1500 J/Kg to its south by that time. The
01.00Z ECMWF EFI for CAPE and CAPE/Shear suggests 90% of the model
members are above what the model history has seen before for the 5
week centered date period. Evaluation of the deterministic
solutions and soundings suggest long and looping hodographs
suggesting supercell modes with all severe storm hazards,
including tornadoes, some strong, and possibly long-tracked
(again).
The GEFS-driven CSU machine learning convective outlook has
widespread probabilities of 45% for severe weather Tuesday over
much of the Miss Valley from ARK-srn WI, with the local forecast
area over 60% and holding the highest probability in the CONUS.
For those that watch this regularly like me, this is a WOW. So,
the parameter space is lining up for a significant weather
outbreak. Some questions still remain as to initiation, location
of any pre-frontal dry line or the influence of early storm
development, but overall the severe storm parameter space over the
forecast area looks to be unusual and could be significant. Will
continue to have this our main message moving forward.
Anyway, if you thought yesterday afternoon and evening was "fun", Tuesday is beginning to shape up as more or less a carbon copy if not worse.
Per the NWS QC office this afternoon...(in short, "here we go again").
Concerns continue to grow for another significant severe
thunderstorm outbreak for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
Overall predictability in the large scale and synoptic features is
above average for a forecast on Day 4 with fairly good agreement
on the surface low and frontal positions and evolution. This is
confirmed through cluster analysis from the 01.00Z GEFS/Canadian/ECMWF
ensembles.
Gulf of Mexico moisture and a sharp warm front looks to surge
north across the area Tuesday with the means of the
GEFS/Canadian/ECMWF ensembles all showing a surface low around 988
mb in northwest Iowa by 7 pm. The warm front is paralleling and
just north of Highway 20 with a 40-50% probability of afternoon
SBCAPE values over 1500 J/Kg to its south by that time. The
01.00Z ECMWF EFI for CAPE and CAPE/Shear suggests 90% of the model
members are above what the model history has seen before for the 5
week centered date period. Evaluation of the deterministic
solutions and soundings suggest long and looping hodographs
suggesting supercell modes with all severe storm hazards,
including tornadoes, some strong, and possibly long-tracked
(again).
The GEFS-driven CSU machine learning convective outlook has
widespread probabilities of 45% for severe weather Tuesday over
much of the Miss Valley from ARK-srn WI, with the local forecast
area over 60% and holding the highest probability in the CONUS.
For those that watch this regularly like me, this is a WOW. So,
the parameter space is lining up for a significant weather
outbreak. Some questions still remain as to initiation, location
of any pre-frontal dry line or the influence of early storm
development, but overall the severe storm parameter space over the
forecast area looks to be unusual and could be significant. Will
continue to have this our main message moving forward.
Shear is more classic for tornadoes, somehow, than Friday. Like they said, the hodos are large with great turning. I was worried Friday was going to be too linear. Storms and tornadoes might be more isolated and visible Tuesday if it all lines up.
Look at this thing... IC near 4pm, simulated hodograph. Look at the turning in the wind fields:
Tuesday...it seems like I've seen this picture before if you know what I mean.
For about a week now, they've been saying pretty much "you think this one's going to be big, you should take a hard look at Tuesday."
We got really lucky last night - could have been a lot worse.
For about a week now, they've been saying pretty much "you think this one's going to be big, you should take a hard look at Tuesday."
We got really lucky last night - could have been a lot worse.
Are they using the same graphic from Friday?Yep. I've seen this movie before.
Just to confirm, this is Tuesday? Tuesday works good for me to hide out.Yep. I've seen this movie before.
Pretty darn close ain't it?
One thing I noticed this morning is that there is supposed to be a fairly substantial cap in place. Sort of a lid on the atmosphere that can prevent things from popping in the afternoon. It will break eventually, just a matter of when and where.
Looks like there'll be a 2nd round overnight line of storms late Tuesday/early Wednesday that could be pretty rough also.
But yeah, most all of the same ground with this one as Friday. The main difference is the available fuel so to speak for Tuesday is apparently going to be much greater.
https://www.kcrg.com/2023/04/12/tornado-prompts-safety-questions-iowa-city-mobile-home-park/
Fairly scary story about the Bon Aire mobile home park. They have three shelters, however, they are not enclosed? They are all open on one side per the article.
Also, @jamesvanderwulf poured the concrete for those corpse collection points.
Fairly scary story about the Bon Aire mobile home park. They have three shelters, however, they are not enclosed? They are all open on one side per the article.
Also, @jamesvanderwulf poured the concrete for those corpse collection points.
Nothing in Bon Aire, but I did pour this shelter for Bob Wolfe @ Lake Ridge...
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