95/5 for Sorensen and Kemerer. Something fluky would have to happen. I'd put Young at 50/50, but I might just be a bigger fan of him than you.
Anyone else getting a little nervous that Perez Perez....
- Thread starter Jay on HR
- Start date
It's not crazy high if you change the question to, "What are the chances these guys end up on the mat for Iowa this season?" At that point, it's probably right on, with the exception of HWT, imo.
I would think 95/5 is too high and Tarp is more on the mark with 85/15. I don't think I would even give Retherford or Nolf 95/5 chance of AAing next year. The occurrence of injury is just too high in this sport. 95 percent chance of AAing would mean that 19 out of 20 years of competition, the wrestler would not suffer an injury that would compromise his ability to AA. That's just not likely when you look at statistics. And that is not even throwing in the percentage of something fluky coming along.
Even 50/50 for Stoll is generous. You have a guy coming off two consecutive years of injury. So for him to AA he has to:
1) Fully recover from a second serious injury
2) Not get reinjured again
3) Not have extensive time off over the past two years hurt his development enough in a weight class that has Snyder, Hall, Nevills and Kasper coming back, plus Coon and Hughes coming off RS.
Can it be done? He absolutely has the talent to do it, but those are serious hurdles to overcome. And then throw in the fluke factor.
I'd have to agree with most of this. The sad part (for Iowa fans) is that the Stoll part is accurate, while saying Retherford and Nolf have only 95% chance of AA is likely too low.
Have to say that I agree with the analysis. Need to be realistic about next year. We will have guys in the line up for the first time at 125, 133, 141, 165, and (possibly) 174; we are reshuffling the guys at 184 through heavyweight, and we have Turk and Stoll coming off serious injuries. Need to look for steady incremental development building toward 2018-19. The team could finish 3rd or 4th in nationals and we might look back in a few years and conclude that it was TnT's greatest coaching performance.
I just don't know what to expect for next year, betw injuries and untested guys. Esp. at 125, 133, 141, 174, 197 and heavy. (I'm assuming Cash goes 184). But sitting here right now, and absent any injury surprises, I would bet that TnT can get the team to qualify all of the weights.
He needs to go 184, he is small at 197 and frankly did not do all that well. He was very average, did not qualify for the NCAA until an injury allowed an extra entry. He did show up and make the most of the NCAA tournament so kudos for that. He has the skill but spent too much time standing around. He needs to get down to 184 and build off his tournament performance and get after it.
It took an injury to someone else to get him into the NCAA tourney. That's not doing well.
What does that matter if he's not as big and strong as the competition coming in? Tough to stay healthy in that environment, imo.
There will be holes in the line up next season. We might as well get used to it.
Thanks for understanding my sentiments. I was forced by a coach to wrestle up a weight in high school for almost an entire season. (I'd make weight every match, but the kid a weight above me never did.) Length was a problem as well as the additional weight given up. I lost a bunch of matches. A taller kid beat me when I had to wrestle up a weight, but I handled him fairly easy the next year when we both naturally weighed about the the same.
Laux is a very good wrestler. He is going to surprise a lot of people this year.
Of course, as soon as I posted this I saw that everyone else agreed with my original post. But I'm staying loyal to you 1stplacehawk. We're officially going with 95% for Sorensen and Kemerer and 50% for Young.
Looks about right to me Turk also at 41, does anyone know if Rathbun will try 125?
I'm not sure what to think about Turk. He's missed a lot of mat time and I'm hoping Happel is just better then him for the sake of Iowa's future. Plus people seem to think he cant make 41 anymore. I wish them both the best of luck and hope they can both find spots in the starting lineup during there career. Rathbun went back and forth between 33/41 this year so I think 25 is no longer an option for him.
Yeah it's hard to gauge how good Turk is because he's always hurt. I didn't realize Rathbun had been up at 141, I guess it's unlikely he would be at 125
Something I noticed in the last few interviews by TnT is that when talking about leadership and dedication, they mention Happel's name a lot. Tells me that he is coming along.
