The key to this game is going to be first down. Both teams thrive in third and long situations because of their secondary play. Both times will want to mix it up on first down as well, to try to be balanced with run/pass. However, on second down, if the first down was not successful gaining atleast 3-4 yards, the passing rate increases dramatically. Then third and long will most often be a pass. All of that just plays into the teeth of the defenses. Stay ahead of the chains, that is the motto that both teams will want to employ to give them a chance to win.
Anyone have a knowledgeable ISU scouting report?
- Thread starter uihawk82
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Schulte saw his first quality positional snaps back in '21. He's a returning 2-year starter. He's been on campus since the '19 season ... so he's a 6th year guy.
Injuries to Terry Roberts and Jestin Jacobs in '22 forced Iowa's hand on D ... and Sebastian Castro was thrust into the spotlight of being positioned at Iowa's CASH spot (when he's not playing safety). He's done nothing but answer the bell every time it's been rung. He's effectively been a 2 year starter for the Hawks and he was a special-teams ace in '21. Like Schulte, he's been around since '19 ... so he's a 6th year guy.
Based off we saw from Harris in '21, many folks had him pidgeon-holed as being Iowa's next great CB. Folks figured that if he had a strong '22 campaign ... he'd be well-positioned for subsequent NFL draft. However, that never materialized because he had an injury that stole his '22 season from him. Then, we saw in '23 that he had some rust to knock off ... and had to regain some confidence (in himself). Already a pick in '24 ... seems like the old-confidence has returned! Anyhow, he too has been around since '19 ... another 6th year guy.
That's 18 years of being in Phil Parker's school of zone-eyes ... they must be just about ready to stave off a bunch of calls from AARP ... they're the grandpas of the secondary! (thank you NIL money ... can't believe I said that!)
Who else do we have? Well, Nwankpa has a year of starts under his belt ... and is a TR JR. Even though he's not a grandpa ... he's nothing to sneeze at. Many of our recruitniks might be quick to remind folks that he's a former 5-star recruit!
I'm pretty certain that Phil Parker considers Koen Entringer as a starter ... even though he's relegated to play behind 2 grandpas and a former 5-star guy. This is already evidence by the fact that Phil has given him a lot of snaps ... presumably to reward him and to keep him "plugged in." For those who don't remember, Koen is the guys who made that 100 yard hustle play against Michigan's Semaj Morgan. Anyhow, Koen is a 3rd year SO ... a guy who has coaches trust "in the bank."
What remains? The remaining CB spot! What we have there is a battle-royal between TJ Hall (3rd year JR), Deshaun Lee (3rd year SO), and John Nestor (2nd year SO). Lee has seen extensive starts from the '23 season due to Coop's injury. Hall is a guy who has seen quality snaps before. Nestor is a guy who is perceived as an up-and-comer.
While it could be argued that the Iowa secondary has a little bit of a "personnel-hole" at the one CB-spot ... it's not exactly a glaring hole. It just means that we don't have the spot locked down yet by a super-proven guy. I think that we can all agree that Phil will make sure that the spot is well-covered ... particularly given our knowledge about personnel at the position.
What's more ... this secondary is playing behind a bunch of grandpas at LB.
Frankly, the most glaring weakness on the Iowa D is on the DL. That's a wild thought, right? (or do I need to break down that group too?)
I bet this year you will see more attempts to push the ball down the field to the wide receivers compared to previous years.
One thing I've noticed is that a lot of ISU fans on these podcasts seem to be overcompensating for their run defense. They don't want to admit it, but they looked bad. Just because you lose your best player doesn't mean you shouldn't be able to take care of business at home against North Dakota.
I think if Iowa establishes the run, getting anywhere from 5 to 6 yards a carry, the game is over.
I think if Iowa establishes the run, getting anywhere from 5 to 6 yards a carry, the game is over.
CB TJ Hall is a junior, since he played all 13 games as a true freshman and six games as sophomore.
My bad, meant 3, 6 year players with Harris Schulte and Castro. Multi year starter with Nwankpa.
The big question is will there be enough picks to go around?
He is a good QB. He can scramble a little bit, but he is not a runner.
He was an effective gunner early in season before he got injured as a sophomore.
He's pretty good and so are their receivers. I'd still take our secondary and linebackers over them by a lot however.
So here are my final thoughts on the game. Could be fun, could suck, who knows. I expect Iowa to win, so I am going to characterize these things as ways ISU keeps it close or can win. We know the path to victory pretty easily with Iowa.
- If ISU can’t stop the run this game will be extremely boring and nothing else I’m going to say after this will matter. That’s certainly a possibility so I’m going to function as if ISU can do alright at least in run defense. While I’m assuming Iowa’s offense is better, I don’t know what to take away from either game last week. The 3 previous matchups Iowa averaged 2.55 YPC so I’m not just going to assume Iowa will be ripping off 5 or 6 YPC Saturday.
- I think there are some really interesting defensive matchups. ISU has some unusually tall DB’s, and I’m curious to see what the outcome is when Verdon (6’4”) is matched up with Lachey (6’6”) and Vander Zee (6’4”) against Porter (6’4”).
- I think Iowa’s front 7 is a wrecking crew, but they have been for a while and yet Iowa only has 3 sacks in the last 3 years against ISU and zero last year. If ISU can protect Becht and give him some time, and Becht can remain patient, I think there are some yards to be had there. I don’t think ISU will run with any consistency against Iowa. Gotta do it some but I think the game plan needs to be dink and dunk, and throw the ball two thirds to three fourths of the time. Going to need a lot of short yardage. Becht is very accurate but will need to settle for 3-5 yards on a lot of passes.
- Is Brehmer healthy? He was clearly on a snap count last week and only had two targets and no catches. If he can’t play well I think the path to victory gets very narrow for ISU. With the two high safeties you need that dump down target in the middle.
- Is Dakin good? Iowa has been used to one of the best, most consistent punters in CFB history. He ended up with a few 40+ yarders but he had several under that including a 33 yard punt. Iowa isn’t really used to that.
- ISU had some punt team issues of it’s own last week and I expect Iowa to be coming hard after the punters. There have been a LOT of blocked punts in this game in the recent past.
Heacock is good ... really freakin' good at his job.
While Iowa has admittedly sucked big on offense over the past 3 years ... here is what Heacock's defense has done to Iowa's O over the past 3 years:
'23: Iowa's O - 235 yards, 1 TD on O (rushing)
'22: Iowa's O - 150 yards, 1 TD on O (rushing ... on a 2-play drive where the ISU was defending a very short-field)
'21: Iowa's O - 173 yards, 2 TDs on O (1 rushing, 1 passing)
In 3 years, the Cyclones have only given up 1 passing TD to Iowa! That's impressive. With those numbers ... it's an absolute miracle that Iowa has won 2 of the 3 match-ups. As you indicated, part of what has contributed to Iowa's success has related to Iowa's ability to leverage field-position ... largely attributable to Phil Parker's defense AND Tory Taylor's leg. Obviously, Iowa only has 1 of those returning.
Iowa State also seems to be their best against Iowa if they can run the ball ... or, at least, present a legitimate threat of the run against the Hawks. That opens up the pass and keeps Iowa's defense honest.
I agree with your assertion that Iowa State needs to be patient moving the ball. That is why it will be important for Iowa State to not fall behind early on the score-board ... for the game to remain close (as an Iowa fan ... that's exactly what I want to see happen ... ISU fall behind early and feel like they need to abandon their game-plan). There is past-precedent that Iowa State QBs have pressed in the past when the Cyclones fall behind early ... and that has led to turnovers that have helped the Hawks to thwart the Clones.
When looking over the past 3 match-ups ... Iowa had the game well in hand in BOTH '21 and '23. In '23, the Hawks D was being suffocating ... and held a 20-3 advantage going into the 4th quarter. Similarly, through nearly half-way through the 4th quarter in the '21 game, the Hawks held a 27-10 advantage. Against Phil's defense ... those margins that late in the game are essentially insurmountable.
On the weekly radio show last night, Kirk of course was very complimentary of players and coaches at ISU.
Kirk stated he watched the game at home last Saturday and was charting the defense of Illinois State and said he almost ran out of paper for the number of blitzes Ill State called in the first half.
Kirk stated he watched the game at home last Saturday and was charting the defense of Illinois State and said he almost ran out of paper for the number of blitzes Ill State called in the first half.
Gotta go 4-3 for most of it, right?
Iowa coaches say Dakin has a stronger leg that Taylor had, so give him a little time to get used to it all.
You can counteract a good rush by getting ball out quick which I believe is what ISU did last game against Iowa. Iowa typically is only bringing the 4 guys.
Lose the turnover battle, lose the game. It's what it's come down to the past 6-7 years.
if they win the toss i think isu takes the ball this year. campbell no doubt was overlooking his opener prepping for iowa and he’s desperate for once to have an early lead. this may be the game where we find out if iowa can come back from a deficit to win.
I think if ISU tries to dink and dunk, it is just a matter of time before the Hawks start jumping routes. ISU's strength is the passing game and we have one of the best secondaries in the country, so as I said before, I just don't think they are going to be able to move the ball on us much. I would think there might be a couple plays where we get caught out of position, so if we can eliminate any chunk plays, it is going to be tough sledding for ISU. 86 yrds rushing against North Dakota and 267 passing. 22 min time of possession. Granted you know they were saving up for the game this week, but still they struggled pretty bad against North Dakots.
Honestly I don’t think so.
Iowa State’s identity has been the 3-3-5 and on Iowa State’s postgame show Bruns was saying that the run fits were really bad in the 4–3. They just haven’t don’t it for years and I don’t think you can effectively change a defense in a week. Just my opinion.
Well no shit.
It will be the best defense every team on Iowa’s schedule will play all year.
ISU's only chance is trick plays.
The talent level difference is pretty significant.
The talent level difference is pretty significant.
‘21 was the game Purdy got benched, Breece Hall fumbled leading to a scoop and score, etc. I mean half that stuff happens and it will be a blowout.
‘23 first drive of the game was a 15 play, 6+ minute drive that resulted in a blocked field goal. There was a pick 6 on Becht. I mean that stuff just can’t happen if Iowa State is going to compete here.
I got a chance to see their game on the replay and my thoughts:
I see it going one of two ways. Brecht can't handle the moment and Iowa blows them out or it is a tight game. I do not see ISU pulling away in this game further than 7. Turnovers and ST will be key like always.
- Iowa SHOULD be able to run the ball up their butt on Saturday. Their DLine did not look explosive or good in the run game and ND was getting to their LBs on run blocking with pretty good success. They are pretty decimated at LB so you would think that would help play in to our scheme.
- Iowa offense would also be smart to use the TEs a bunch this week as well as some well timed crossing routes against their LBs. Their corners and safeties looked the part but we will still have some good looks for long plays. Iowa should be able to really work over their LBs with the TEs all day.
- The one worry I have on offense is that Iowa won't take advantage of ISUs aggressiveness and blitzing. Iowa seems to play in to other defenses hands sometimes in loaded boxes
- ISU on offense to me looked a step slow, especially at the OL. They are big but did not look overly athletic up front. ISU RB is good but I didnt see a giant step from him last year to this year. Where ISU could have an edge is if they are able to scheme their WRs open. Brecht looked poised and generally throws an accurate ball and we all know Iowa likes to give you the short passing game. Question will be whether or not ISU can stay patient and make Iowa pay when they do get their shot.
I see it going one of two ways. Brecht can't handle the moment and Iowa blows them out or it is a tight game. I do not see ISU pulling away in this game further than 7. Turnovers and ST will be key like always.
Concurred but I think Becht is pretty decent honestly. It's a step up in competition from last week but I think Becht is probably better than some of us realize but can he consistently work with the short passes for 3-4 yard gains? Will Campbell play conservatively? He hasn't in the past for an entire game. I say it all the time, and we all know it, dinking and dunking against our defense is the key. Go short and don't get greedy and you'll probably get some points slowly.
If our offense is playing decently though, it won't matter because ISU won't score enough and we'll likely cut at least 1, maybe 2, of the short passes into INTs. Depends on how aware/ready Becht is. If Iowa can score 17 points, I think it's likely enough, especially if Sama is out. Our defense is usually the best any team will play all year schematically outside of the heavyweights and then it's still arguable at times.
Really depends on our offense if this game is close or not, as we've all come to expect. I do have more faith in our offense though and maybe, just maybe, we're finally back to having a serviceable offense again. Much sooner than I anticipated too. Hopefully, it's true.
Iowa should win this with relative ease IMO but you just never know.
I thought their defense sucked. We should be able to run on them with no problem.
Graves and company need to get some pressure on ol Rocco and force him into some bad plays.
How can you tell if an Iowa State football player has a girlfriend?
…There’s tobacco juice on both sides of the pickup truck!
…There’s tobacco juice on both sides of the pickup truck!
Yes, the same theme for Iowa FB recently in past years. If our offense shows up at all, it really shouldn't be close unless their are some fluky plays/turnovers.
