Big Ten Reportedly 'Vetted' 10 Schools For Possible Expansion
- Thread starter cigaretteman
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“The university presidents have the say in the end. Clemson was getting a look at, etc, but they are so far below the other "would want before Clemson" list now that they are essentially not a realistic optio now. UNC obviously that I have mentioned, Miami and Georgia Tech likely behind UNC. It wouldn't surprise if FSU is the only school that gets out of the ACC in the next couple of years or even a few years. It is easy to say you want out and have lawyers look at it, it is another to actually try and get it out with action and results. Right now the main one with the action/work is FSU.”
I know this is a long shot near term but if this does happen a HORT meetup in Iowa City and Tallahassee must happen.
It is not a long shot and it will happen. I can’t wait for you guys to see the coeds down here.
I don’t buy for 1 second that Clemson is not an option. If it were only the Big Ten, then I’m sure some academic snobbery would be the controlling factor. But it’s not like Clemson’s academics would be out of the ordinary for the Big Ten. They’re ranked 86th which puts them ahead of Iowa’s 93rd, Oregon’s 98th and Nebraska’s 159th. It’s Nebraska that is WAY outside of the academic curve for Big Ten teams, not Clemson. The Big Ten already gave up any “right” to academic snobbery when it brought in Nebraska. And Fox wants Clemson. So they will accept Clemson for Fox.
And of course FSU’s 53rd puts them ahead of 7 current Big Ten teams and within 20 spots of 8 other Big Ten Teams. There are 11 Big Ten teams ranked between 21 and 60 and FSU would be in that majority cluster.
UNC, Duke, Virginia, the Florida schools would all be great and shove a dagger into the sec.
I don’t buy for 1 second that Clemson is not an option. If it were only the Big Ten, then I’m sure some academic snobbery would be the controlling factor. But it’s not like Clemson’s academics would be out of the ordinary for the Big Ten. They’re ranked 86th which puts them ahead of Iowa’s 93rd, Oregon’s 98th and Nebraska’s 159th. It’s Nebraska that is WAY outside of the academic curve for Big Ten teams, not Clemson. The Big Ten already gave up any “right” to academic snobbery when it brought in Nebraska. And Fox wants Clemson. So they will accept Clemson for Fox.
And of course FSU’s 53rd puts them ahead of 7 current Big Ten teams and within 20 spots of 8 other Big Ten Teams. There are 11 Big Ten teams ranked between 21 and 60 and FSU would be in that majority cluster.
I hope Clemson goes to the B1G with us. I've always liked making that trip. Ideally there is a southeastern pod of at least four teams. That will help maintain current rivalries and limit the traveling at least a little.
My guess is that it’s us and Miami at first followed shortly by UNC and either Virginia, Duke or Georgia Tech. Then a year or two later, Notre Dame and either Virginia, Duke, or Georgia Tech.
This guy is a good source to follow on realignment news
If the ultimate goal (I think it is) is 20-24 team mega conferences. The B1G has to go after them.
Can't sit back and let the SEC and b12 gobble them up.
ACC is tits up sooner or later.
The best 24 ACC and Big 12 schools better huddle up sooner than later.
Edit - the ACC schools not heading to greener pastures.
I think the b12 survives but as a home for programs that didn't make the B1G/SEC cut.
Basically an island of misfit toys....home of last resort for lower end P5 schools.
ACC is toast sooner or later.
I think the end game might be two 24-team conferences. I think the final 6 to join the big ten are, in no particular order or timing:
- FSU
- NC
- ND
- Miami
- Virginia
- Georgia Tech
We're about to have the AFC and NFC of college football, then one P2.5 conference and everyone else. I wonder where Clemson winds up, SEC?
I think so. What will be interesting is what happens to schools like Stanford and Duke. World class education doesn’t exactly fit with the SEC, Vandy notwithstanding.
Duke definitely brings academics and basketball while Stanford brings the most competitive across-the-board athletics (non-football) and athletics.
Stanford Captures LEARFIELD Directors' Cup - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics
Stanford finished 2022-23 with 1412.00 total points after the College World Series.
nacda.com
Stanford would have been a great fit for the B1G IMO. Kind of surprised they didn't make the cut.Duke definitely brings academics and basketball while Stanford brings the most competitive across-the-board athletics (non-football) and athletics.
Stanford Captures LEARFIELD Directors' Cup - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics
Stanford finished 2022-23 with 1412.00 total points after the College World Series.
Even though Christian McCaffrey left a mark..
I think if there was another attractive PAC team they might have been bundled with them. Cal didn’t move the needle, however.
If Notre Dame would have been willing to move, I bet Stanford would have come with.
If the BIG gets those 6 teams, that is best case scenario for them, and I doubt you see the SEC add 8 more teams just to keep up, as the pickins are slim after...
Even if you can tap into the BIG12 and ACC, I'd struggle to find 8 teams the SEC would take and quasi make sense with keeping it regional which the SEC seems to want...
Clemson
VTech
NC State
Duke
L'Ville
WV
Okie St
KU or KSU (stretch but Mizzou and OU are in?)
Another Texas team Baylor or TCU?
If those are the options I would probably stay at 16 or take a flier to get into the NC/VA/Clemson markets but not get much bigger, no tv deal would make sense.
Even if you can tap into the BIG12 and ACC, I'd struggle to find 8 teams the SEC would take and quasi make sense with keeping it regional which the SEC seems to want...
Clemson
VTech
NC State
Duke
L'Ville
WV
Okie St
KU or KSU (stretch but Mizzou and OU are in?)
Another Texas team Baylor or TCU?
If those are the options I would probably stay at 16 or take a flier to get into the NC/VA/Clemson markets but not get much bigger, no tv deal would make sense.
Well definitely the Big Ten and SEC have slightly different priorities in expansion. The Big Ten wants to pretend its a collection of snobby schools while ignoring that it’s most recent addition was Nebraska so academic ranking will matter although it will at most be equal to tv ratings as a criteria if not second. They are definitely trying to expand into the South and West both from a recruiting base standpoint, but also just population as the Rust Belt withers and everyone moves to the South, Southwest and West.
Meanwhile the SEC mainly values large state schools with large numbers of viewers in both the stands and the tv. And tv markets matter less. They want to stay generally within the Southern footprint and have no interest in being a coast to coast conference.
So based on that, I EXPECT the following:
Big Ten Round One Expansion: FSU and Miami or UNC
Big Ten Round Two Expansion (likely shortly after the first round): UNC or Miami and either Duke, Virginia, Georgia Tech or Clemson in order of likelihood.
Big Ten Round Three Expansion (likely after the SEC expansions): Notre Dame and either Stanford, Miami, Virginia, Duke, Georgia Tech or Clemson in order of likelihood.
Most likely Big Ten additions are: FSU, Miami, UNC, Virginia, Notre Dame and Stanford.
For the SEC, I EXPECT them to do the following:
SEC Round One: Virginia Tech, NC State, Clemson and West Virginia
SEC Round Two: Louisville, Oklahoma State, Memphis and then either Texas Tech, Texas Christian, East Carolina, Houston, UCF or Tulane depending on viewership numbers when this happens in 2027 or later.
Now this is what I would personally do if I were the grand high Poobah of the Big Ten and SEC.
Tribe’s Big Ten additions: FSU, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia and then dangle the one empty spot until Notre Dame takes it.
Tribe’s SEC additions: Virginia Tech, NC State, Louisville, and West Virginia or Pitt (to invade into Big Ten territory and to be a good partner for Tennessee and other new northern additions) and then Arizona and Arizona State to grab a quickly growing large state.
The last additions to the big ten were Maryland and Rutgers, not that they change your point. Also, why would the SEC take East Carolina before NC State? I think the last two added to the big ten could very well be Stanford and notre dame.
D’oh! My bad. I glossed over it. If the SEC was going to double dip in north cackalackie, why in the hell would they add ECU over Duke?
The most recent addition isn't Nebraska.
Rutgers, Maryland, USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon have all come after...
From a ruthless business standpoint, why do the SEC or BIG need to expand. With the exception of Notre Dame, FSU and Clemson, I don’t see these teams adding value that increases the per team value.
And right now they have the playoff system completely rigged to give them the top four byes and 8 of the 12 playoff spots every year. With a combined 34 teams, every year nearly 25% of the conferences will make the playoff. Their size of 16-18 is still manageable as a normal conference. Throwout schools like Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois, Mississippi State, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota and South Carolina who will likely never put it together, you really have about 24-26 teams in both conferences that will be serious in contention for 8 playoff spots. The more I look at it, I just don’t see why BIG or SEC let anymore teams in on that action. They both are sitting in perfect spots. In fact with PAC dead they probably will work
Again and reduce highest ranked conference winners down to 5 from 6, giving them 9 spots.
Because of this and because of the complications of bad tv contracts, I predict Big 12 and ACC will combine and form 22-24 team conference. They both may dissolve first to break TV deals and get rid of the lesser teams and create a new name and hopefully find a package on par with SEC / BIG. It will be a decent conference but not on par so contracts wont quite be as good but it will be better. And they will be able to get two teams in the playoff I think.
Best Guess top 11 from each would be:
ACC
FSU
Clemson
North Carolina
North Carolina State
UNC
Miami
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Louisville
Ga Tech
Pittsburg
TCU
Texas Tech
Baylor
Houston
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
BYU
West Virginia
Utah
West Virginia
And right now they have the playoff system completely rigged to give them the top four byes and 8 of the 12 playoff spots every year. With a combined 34 teams, every year nearly 25% of the conferences will make the playoff. Their size of 16-18 is still manageable as a normal conference. Throwout schools like Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois, Mississippi State, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota and South Carolina who will likely never put it together, you really have about 24-26 teams in both conferences that will be serious in contention for 8 playoff spots. The more I look at it, I just don’t see why BIG or SEC let anymore teams in on that action. They both are sitting in perfect spots. In fact with PAC dead they probably will work
Again and reduce highest ranked conference winners down to 5 from 6, giving them 9 spots.
Because of this and because of the complications of bad tv contracts, I predict Big 12 and ACC will combine and form 22-24 team conference. They both may dissolve first to break TV deals and get rid of the lesser teams and create a new name and hopefully find a package on par with SEC / BIG. It will be a decent conference but not on par so contracts wont quite be as good but it will be better. And they will be able to get two teams in the playoff I think.
Best Guess top 11 from each would be:
ACC
FSU
Clemson
North Carolina
North Carolina State
UNC
Miami
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Louisville
Ga Tech
Pittsburg
TCU
Texas Tech
Baylor
Houston
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
BYU
West Virginia
Utah
West Virginia
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I am assuming the long view is that each school’s share would go up. I hope it is not at the expense of going to new viewership-based metrics for distributions. I assume teams not named Ohio state and Michigan required assurances that will not happen in voting to approve each new team…
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ECU brings absolutely nothing to the table. I actually kind of like their football team.
In my best Rick Pitino voice, "David Garrard is not walking through that door, SEC fans"
SEC can have NCST. Scumbags were made for each other.
It's about cornering the CFB market plain and simple.
Lets say the B1G sits tight and the SEC expands to 24. The SEC would get all the remaining choice cuts of meat. They'd be able to command even larger revenue as they'd have much more product AND all those additional big money draw schools.
In this scenario the SEC and B1G have to keep pace and compete for the best available product (schools).
You think South Carolina can be convinced to allow Clemson in? That's about as likely as convincing Florida to allow FSU in. Maybe there's a way to do it without having them agree to it.
I have the SEC taking NC State first along with Virginia Tech. East Carolina would be dependent on them literally running out of options.
If one school could block expansion, then Texas and Oklahoma wouldn’t be in due to aTm.
Schools like East Carolina's best shot is if the Big 12/ACC leftovers need more teams to get to 24.
