Lots of thread with bowl game speculation as the topic.
I found the 2015-2016 CFP Media Guide to be quite informative on the process: http://cfp-cms-s3-prod.slcfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/CFP_2015_2016_MEDIA_GUIDE.pdf
Go to ps. 30-31 of the Guide (p. 16 of the pdf).
If all goes as expected, the Rose Bowl will lose the B1G champion to the playoffs and the Sugar Bowl will lose both the Big 12 and SEC champions to the playoffs.
Thus, the Rose will select one replacement (from the B1G) and the Sugar will select two replacements (from the Big 12 and SEC).
Thus, after the top four teams are slotted in the playoffs, the Rose and Sugar will grab the next three. Thereafter, it is solely up to the committee to create the "most compelling match-ups" to fill the Fiesta Bowl and the Peach Bowl. It will factor in (a) geographic proximity; (b) avoid seasonal re-matches; and (c) avoid re-matches of last year's bowl games.
If all goes according to Hoyle, then the CFP will be Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and Iowa/MSU.
I'm sticking with my prediction that the Rose Bowl will be true to its word that it will take the highest ranking non-playoff B1G team to face Stanford.
The Sugar Bowl selections are interesting. Who will be the Big 12 and SEC selections? I'm betting TCU out of the Big 12. They lost to OU by 1 two weeks ago and beat Baylor last weekend. They are the "best" bet out of the OkieSt/Baylor/TCU class. As for the SEC, I'm thinking that Ole Miss will jump Florida. Florida has been awful lately and Ole Miss has beaten Alabama and beaten ranked LSU and MissSt on consecutive weekends. I think that Ole Miss will pass Florida in the CFP rankings.
Who does that leave for the likely Fiesta and Peach slottings by the CFP committee?
One loss teams:
Loser of Iowa/MSU
Ohio State (if not in Rose Bowl)
Two loss teams:
Baylor (Big 12)
Okie State (Big 12)
Notre Dame (Indy)
Florida State (ACC)
North Carolina (ACC)
Florida (SEC)
Group of 5 selection
My belief is that the Florida State/Florida game was a "play-in" game. Florida's loss drops them from a New Year's 6 bowl. I'm also assuming that UNC is out if it loses to Clemson. I'm also viewing Baylor's win over Okie State as eliminating Okie State from serious consideration. Notre Dame and a Group of 5 team (probably Houston) are locks. A third B1G team (either Iowa/MSU loser or Ohio State) is extremely likely as well. That leaves the last slot to be a battle between Baylor and Florida State.
If the committee is charged with creation of the best possible match-ups, might there be incentive to keep Iowa/MSU at #4/#5 after the B1G championship game with the winner getting at least #4 and the loser getting #5? That would slot the loser in the Rose Bowl against Stanford and allow the committee to set up a battle of the blue bloods (Ohio State v. ND) in the Fiesta. You could then have a Baylor v. Houston battle in the Peach (in-state intrigue, fairly close in proximity). However, I'm not sure that game has great allure. Two relatively small schools doesn't necessarily lead to a great gate. Florida State would be out in this scenario.
Or, will the committee drop the loser of the B1G championship game below Ohio State which could set the stage for Ohio State to the Rose Bowl and a match-up of two programs with a history against one another in ND v. Florida State? Likely to be Fiesta Bowl. That would send the loser of Iowa/MSU to play the Group of 5 "winner" (I'm thinking that will be Houston). Likely to be the Peach Bowl. Baylor would be out in this scenario.
If the result is unpleasant on Saturday in the B1G championship game, I'm starting to think that the committee's "most compelling" charge could actually play into Iowa getting a Rose Bowl bid. If the committee wants an Ohio State/ND TV blockbuster in Phoenix, it could slot Iowa above OSU.
If, on the other hand, Ohio State grabs the Rose Bowl bid, here is how I envision the committee would see the next most compelling match-ups among eligible teams:
#1: Notre Dame v. Florida State http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...03/fsu-notre-dame-1993-history-series-rivalry
#2: Notre Dame v. Iowa
#3: Notre Dame v. Baylor
When all is said and done, I think that Iowa's fate is:
1. Win and get into the playoffs.
2. Rose Bowl against Stanford if committee wants OSU/ND or Peach Bowl against Houston if the committee wants FSU/ND. My heart would hope for an Iowa/ND match-up but my head says that the FSU/ND history would prevail.
I found the 2015-2016 CFP Media Guide to be quite informative on the process: http://cfp-cms-s3-prod.slcfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/CFP_2015_2016_MEDIA_GUIDE.pdf
Go to ps. 30-31 of the Guide (p. 16 of the pdf).
If all goes as expected, the Rose Bowl will lose the B1G champion to the playoffs and the Sugar Bowl will lose both the Big 12 and SEC champions to the playoffs.
Thus, the Rose will select one replacement (from the B1G) and the Sugar will select two replacements (from the Big 12 and SEC).
Thus, after the top four teams are slotted in the playoffs, the Rose and Sugar will grab the next three. Thereafter, it is solely up to the committee to create the "most compelling match-ups" to fill the Fiesta Bowl and the Peach Bowl. It will factor in (a) geographic proximity; (b) avoid seasonal re-matches; and (c) avoid re-matches of last year's bowl games.
If all goes according to Hoyle, then the CFP will be Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and Iowa/MSU.
I'm sticking with my prediction that the Rose Bowl will be true to its word that it will take the highest ranking non-playoff B1G team to face Stanford.
The Sugar Bowl selections are interesting. Who will be the Big 12 and SEC selections? I'm betting TCU out of the Big 12. They lost to OU by 1 two weeks ago and beat Baylor last weekend. They are the "best" bet out of the OkieSt/Baylor/TCU class. As for the SEC, I'm thinking that Ole Miss will jump Florida. Florida has been awful lately and Ole Miss has beaten Alabama and beaten ranked LSU and MissSt on consecutive weekends. I think that Ole Miss will pass Florida in the CFP rankings.
Who does that leave for the likely Fiesta and Peach slottings by the CFP committee?
One loss teams:
Loser of Iowa/MSU
Ohio State (if not in Rose Bowl)
Two loss teams:
Baylor (Big 12)
Okie State (Big 12)
Notre Dame (Indy)
Florida State (ACC)
North Carolina (ACC)
Florida (SEC)
Group of 5 selection
My belief is that the Florida State/Florida game was a "play-in" game. Florida's loss drops them from a New Year's 6 bowl. I'm also assuming that UNC is out if it loses to Clemson. I'm also viewing Baylor's win over Okie State as eliminating Okie State from serious consideration. Notre Dame and a Group of 5 team (probably Houston) are locks. A third B1G team (either Iowa/MSU loser or Ohio State) is extremely likely as well. That leaves the last slot to be a battle between Baylor and Florida State.
If the committee is charged with creation of the best possible match-ups, might there be incentive to keep Iowa/MSU at #4/#5 after the B1G championship game with the winner getting at least #4 and the loser getting #5? That would slot the loser in the Rose Bowl against Stanford and allow the committee to set up a battle of the blue bloods (Ohio State v. ND) in the Fiesta. You could then have a Baylor v. Houston battle in the Peach (in-state intrigue, fairly close in proximity). However, I'm not sure that game has great allure. Two relatively small schools doesn't necessarily lead to a great gate. Florida State would be out in this scenario.
Or, will the committee drop the loser of the B1G championship game below Ohio State which could set the stage for Ohio State to the Rose Bowl and a match-up of two programs with a history against one another in ND v. Florida State? Likely to be Fiesta Bowl. That would send the loser of Iowa/MSU to play the Group of 5 "winner" (I'm thinking that will be Houston). Likely to be the Peach Bowl. Baylor would be out in this scenario.
If the result is unpleasant on Saturday in the B1G championship game, I'm starting to think that the committee's "most compelling" charge could actually play into Iowa getting a Rose Bowl bid. If the committee wants an Ohio State/ND TV blockbuster in Phoenix, it could slot Iowa above OSU.
If, on the other hand, Ohio State grabs the Rose Bowl bid, here is how I envision the committee would see the next most compelling match-ups among eligible teams:
#1: Notre Dame v. Florida State http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...03/fsu-notre-dame-1993-history-series-rivalry
#2: Notre Dame v. Iowa
#3: Notre Dame v. Baylor
When all is said and done, I think that Iowa's fate is:
1. Win and get into the playoffs.
2. Rose Bowl against Stanford if committee wants OSU/ND or Peach Bowl against Houston if the committee wants FSU/ND. My heart would hope for an Iowa/ND match-up but my head says that the FSU/ND history would prevail.
