Not "sites"; actual patients screened for it.
Only 426. Now, maybe based on tracking exposures, that's adequate. But Italy is finding out, quickly, that it wasn't remotely adequate.
CDC says to expect coronavirus to spread across US
- Thread starter BelemNole
- Start date
Only 426. Now, maybe based on tracking exposures, that's adequate. But Italy is finding out, quickly, that it wasn't remotely adequate.
So . . . Trump put Pence in charge.
I suspect Pence is more competent than Trump - although that isn't saying much. But I worry that a religious zealot may take a "let God sort them out" approach to saving lives.
I suspect Pence is more competent than Trump - although that isn't saying much. But I worry that a religious zealot may take a "let God sort them out" approach to saving lives.
This is EXACTLY what the US government AND CDC should be doing - ensuring supplies of PPE and other necessary equipment to rapidly distribute to where they are needed.
Telling hospitals this is "contained" and "nothing to worry about" works only if the government can back that up with supplies if something blows up.
But it does not appear that is where we are. If you are a hospital/clinic admin, do you start sourcing extra stuff yourself in prep for this? CDC is claiming we're likely to see outbreaks here - even if they are not nationwide. Trump is telling people we're fine.
The messaging is f***ed; that implies to me the planning is f***ed, too.
Will "Blue States" get vaccine? Stockpiles of extra PPE gear? Respirators? Or will they be allocated for States that "vote for him"?
Yep read that wrong. I still would like to know why he thinks we need to test for more.
There are countries testing more in a day then we have tested total...
Umm you don’t think there is a reason for that?
Considering we have almost 20,000 citizens die every flu season with practically no press bringing attention to it and zero stock market reaction, I have to admit that this does feel that fear is being promoted and thrown about. The flu is a serious thing, but this is nothing remotely deadly as SARS or Ebola.
I wasn’t talking about current supply or protective equipment, I’ve seen nothing that would indicate hosp aren’t prepared. Our hosp has adequate supplies now. I’m talking about drug shortages of greater than when PR got destroyed.
Considering, if you run the numbers on the flu - at ~12% infection rate because we vaccinate 170M people a year in this country from it, and this disease not only has a 20-30x higher mortality associated with it, the CDC projects a US infection rate potential of 40%-70%, you're looking at up to 5M who could die from it. Not "20,000".
This is what has epidemiologists, doctors and virologists concerned.
If 25% of the people you serve in your area required hospitalization and quarantine from this, what would your "supply levels" look like? Because that's what happened to China.
Because a 24 yr old Korean Airline flight attendant was exposed on Feb 15th, and worked until Feb 19/20,and was just diagnosed in Korea with the disease on Tuesday this week.
After having been in/around LAX and LA for a week w/o knowing she had it. Would you want a screening if you just found out your plane used the gate right after hers did?
More reasonable would be to only deliver goods and services to those who believe that government does good.
So, yes we'll deliver to red states, but not to red voters.
If you are one of those lunatics who preaches "leave it to the market" let's see how that works for you in a pandemic.
Because a case in CA just came up, and they have no idea where the patient contracted it.
CA has been ahead of the curve in testing for it.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday confirmed the first possible “community spread” of the coronavirus in the U.S., found in a patient in California.
The CDC doesn’t know exactly how the patient contracted the virus. The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown,” the CDC said in a statement. “It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States.”
The patient didn’t have a relevant travel history or exposure to another patient with the virus. The case was picked up by clinicians in the public health system, the agency said. It brings the total number of cases in the U.S. to 60, a bulk of which are people who were evacuated from Wuhan, China or the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was quarantined off the coast of Japan.
“Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown,” it said, adding that it’s possible the patient contracted the virus from someone who brought the infection back from another country. It’s significant because it means that it’s also possible the infection is spreading untraced throughout the local community.
California’s State Public Health Officer Dr. Sonia Angell said it’s been “an evolving situation, which California has been monitoring and responding to since COVID-19 cases first emerged in China last year. This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know.”
Earlier this week, CDC officials said that it was just a matter of time before the outbreak starts to spread in the U.S.“We are asking the American public to work with us to prepare for the expectation that this could be bad,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call.
The announcement from the CDC came just hours after President Donald Trump asserted the risk of the virus to the American public is “low.”
Earlier in the day, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar confirmed a new case of the coronavirus in the U.S., “the epidemiology of which we are still discerning,” he said while testifying on Capitol Hill.
The CDC said it is working closely with state, local, tribal, and territorial partners, as well as public health partners, to respond to this public health threat. “Unprecedented, aggressive efforts have been taken to contain the spread and mitigate the impact of this virus,” the agency said.
Health officials have said the respiratory disease is capable of spreading through human-to-human contact, droplets carried through sneezing and coughing and germs left on inanimate objects.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/cdc...-community-spread-coronavirus-case-in-us.htmlThe CDC doesn’t know exactly how the patient contracted the virus. The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown,” the CDC said in a statement. “It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States.”
The patient didn’t have a relevant travel history or exposure to another patient with the virus. The case was picked up by clinicians in the public health system, the agency said. It brings the total number of cases in the U.S. to 60, a bulk of which are people who were evacuated from Wuhan, China or the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was quarantined off the coast of Japan.
“Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown,” it said, adding that it’s possible the patient contracted the virus from someone who brought the infection back from another country. It’s significant because it means that it’s also possible the infection is spreading untraced throughout the local community.
California’s State Public Health Officer Dr. Sonia Angell said it’s been “an evolving situation, which California has been monitoring and responding to since COVID-19 cases first emerged in China last year. This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know.”
Earlier this week, CDC officials said that it was just a matter of time before the outbreak starts to spread in the U.S.“We are asking the American public to work with us to prepare for the expectation that this could be bad,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call.
The announcement from the CDC came just hours after President Donald Trump asserted the risk of the virus to the American public is “low.”
Earlier in the day, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar confirmed a new case of the coronavirus in the U.S., “the epidemiology of which we are still discerning,” he said while testifying on Capitol Hill.
The CDC said it is working closely with state, local, tribal, and territorial partners, as well as public health partners, to respond to this public health threat. “Unprecedented, aggressive efforts have been taken to contain the spread and mitigate the impact of this virus,” the agency said.
Health officials have said the respiratory disease is capable of spreading through human-to-human contact, droplets carried through sneezing and coughing and germs left on inanimate objects.
And just think how many other people that person has been around in the last week or so. Likely at work and at social events. It is likely this patient unknowingly spread the virus to others and I would imagine there will be other cases popping up in the next week or so in this area of Northern California.
Let's Build A Wall!!!!
(around California! We can rake up the leaves and brush to prevent fires at the same time!)
Interesting. The key now will be to see if they can contain it to just that local area of Northern California.
What makes that hard is that even if you identify all the people that this "patient zero" in California was around, the incubation period is so long that those people have likely traveled and potentially spread the virus beyond a small geographical area.
sure if I started to develop symptoms.
should we just test everyone then? Daily?
So test everyone?
Which goes to show mortality rate is more than likely less than 3% or whatever it says.
No; if our "2-3%" is only counting those symptomatic, that's a hard number.
If it's really 1%, but we're infecting literally everyone, then the math at 2-3% for the symptomatic cases still adds up to around 1.5M to 5M US dead. That's assuming the CDC 40-70% infection rate.
You might consider requiring tests of anyone who's been to an airport, or traveled, etc.
Hell....with smartphone metrics nowadays, you could link exact whereabouts for anyone with a phone to an area someone who was infectious had been around the same timeframe. Ergo, the woman in Sacramento who was diagnosed, we could track her travel in the area over the past week or more, and cross correlate with anyone else at risk, then push messages out to folks at risk to get a test. Either make that a voluntary test and as a heads up, or in some cases, mandatory if infection is almost certain.
But once this escapes into the general population, quarantines aren't going to make much sense anymore.
I highly doubt 1.5 - 5 million Americans are going to die from this.
But by all means.....let’s spread panic throughout the country. If you are lucky, maybe riots, food shortages, looting, and overall general chaos will occur.
They practically test no one. For example, my daughter last week had an up and down fever (up to 103) with a bad congested cough. The doctor tested for the flu and strep (negative for both), but no mention of testing for corona. I should add that I live in a suburb of NYC which I would consider a high probability for many folks with the virus considering there were daily multiple flights to China from two international airports.
Those are literally CDCs numbers.
2-3% mortality. So take 20-30x the number of flu deaths.
20k ----> 400k to 600k
Now tack on the very small 12% infection rate of the flu and use the 40% number from CDC. Multiply those two numbers by about 3.
1.2M to 1.8M
Now maybe CDC's assumptions are wrong here. But you go with the best guess data you have.
And, again, possibly 80% of the people end up with a mild case, maybe up to a flu-like case. 20% end up in serious, life threatening condition. And if you are in that 20% category, your odds of catching the dead go up to 1-in-5.
This is exactly why CDC has been trying to communicate the seriousness of this outbreak.
Those are pretty much everyone who shows up to the hosp. How many people don’t? Those are the numbers now and will more than likely change. Look at the statistics from the diamond cruise ship.
4 dead
10 recovered
4/14 = 28.5% mortality, currently.
No idea on the condition of the other 690 still afflicted.
If the tests aren’t highly sensitive do you quarantine 14 days regardless? If over half of people are asymptotic do you keep quarantined as well? This isn’t China, people would revolt.
What do you do?
China was able to set up separate, massive quarantine/hospital areas, away from other hospitals and populated areas. Can we do that here?
In LA, if they end up with 100,000 cases, can we tell the LA Lakers "Hey, season's over, we're converting the stadium into a quarantine hospital until this passes". This is what CDC is concerned about - that we cannot overrun our existing hospitals with highly infectious patients, but we have to treat them somewhere.
Where? Is anyone at the head of the federal government going to help come up with options in populated areas?
We certainly aren't there yet; Italy is rapidly going in that direction with +450 cases in just one week. And many of these people seem to take 2 weeks or more to recover. We ain't got the hospital beds or quarantine areas to cover that. UNLESS we start planning for it. And it does not appear anyone is making any semblance of a contingency plan.
AND....the other thing to consider is that in China, people have been exposed to versions of these coronaviruses, likely from the same animals, for decades. What if their immune systems are more primed for recognizing them, and we Westerners are not? What if this ends up like smallpox brought to Native Americans, that wiped them out in far greater numbers.
That may not be likely, but it most certainly is possible.
I'm simply stating for you CDCs infection rate estimates, based on all the data gathered to date.
