Changed My Mind on Lee’s Red Shirt

[MSU158]

Two things:

1.)Iowa should absolutely be better next year than this year. Lee will be better and would still have 4 years(even 5 if he oly shirts) to be the face of Iowa wrestling and absolutely help recruiting. 133 can't get worse. Murin should be a big boost at 141. With Sorenson and a Retherford gone and Jordan up a weight, 149 will be ripe for the taking. 157 is still a monster. Same with 165. At 174, Young can hopefully finally put on the size or at least push Gunther. Wilcke down at 184 can make similar noise as IF Downey wrestles here. Warner will be better and see 125 for the possible effect of the timing. Finally 285 should improve even more if Stoll finishes this year as an Aa gaining not only the confidence he can reach the podium, but more importantly stay healthy.

2.)tOSU loses a TON of proven wrestlers. Hell 3 of them have all reached the finals and haven't placed worse than 3rd in 9 out of 9 tries.

PSU loses a proven 28 NCAA point Machine in Retherford. And then the following year they lose Nolf, Nickal and Nevills. Yes, they are recruiting juggernauts, but they will have at least 4 proven monsters in Lee, Kemerer, Marinelli and Warner with eligibility left and guys like Murin, Cassioppi and even Nelson to push the momentum and at the very least level the playing field.

Simply put, I think patience is a paramount virtue here. Don't leverage the future here on a 2% chance. I see light at the end of the tunnel and that end is close. This team has the makings of the 2008-2010 run. Do everything they can to get a 133 ASAP and this team can be competing for Titles with ANYONE for at least the next 4 years.

 

[Ban Basketball]

All comes down to one simple point that I have come to believe myself: the future is now! By not rasslin now, the future holds the possibility of injuries entering the picture,and a host of other issues potentially mucking things up.

As long as they're ready to rassle, which they seem to be, the future is now!

 

[rossel 33]

Two things:

1.)Iowa should absolutely be better next year than this year. Lee will be better and would still have 4 years(even 5 if he oly shirts) to be the face of Iowa wrestling and absolutely help recruiting. 133 can't get worse. Murin should be a big boost at 141. With Sorenson and a Retherford gone and Jordan up a weight, 149 will be ripe for the taking. 157 is still a monster. Same with 165. At 174, Young can hopefully finally put on the size or at least push Gunther. Wilcke down at 184 can make similar noise as IF Downey wrestles here. Warner will be better and see 125 for the possible effect of the timing. Finally 285 should improve even more if Stoll finishes this year as an Aa gaining not only the confidence he can reach the podium, but more importantly stay healthy.

2.)tOSU loses a TON of proven wrestlers. Hell 3 of them have all reached the finals and haven't placed worse than 3rd in 9 out of 9 tries.

PSU loses a proven 28 NCAA point Machine in Retherford. And then the following year they lose Nolf, Nickal and Nevills. Yes, they are recruiting juggernauts, but they will have at least 4 proven monsters in Lee, Kemerer, Marinelli and Warner with eligibility left and guys like Murin, Cassioppi and even Nelson to push the momentum and at the very least level the playing field.

Simply put, I think patience is a paramount virtue here. Don't leverage the future here on a 2% chance. I see light at the end of the tunnel and that end is close. This team has the makings of the 2008-2010 run. Do everything they can to get a 133 ASAP and this team can be competing for Titles with ANYONE for at least the next 4 years.

Agree MSU. When folks say PSU loses "only" Retherford next year, well, that "only" is typically pinning or TF'ing everyone up until the finals. Last year, he pinned Sorenson in semis and won finals by TF. That's a lot of points and not easily replaced.

Also, I don't entirely buy into the idea that if we don't finish in top 5 this year, we're screwed in future recruiting. I think folks will know Iowa is going to be right back at or near the top in 2018-19.

 

[Mpchillin]

He has had a few one-point matches with D3 or NAIA guys.

I’m not sure where you came up with this. He’s had 4 regular decisions.

10-3 W Connor Corbin Iowa
5-2 W Jake Woodley Oklahoma
3-1 W Andrew Dixon Oklahoma
5-4 L Jake Woodley Oklahoma

 

[bphawkeye_Rivals]

I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but after today’s action, I think Lee should stay on the shelf this season.

His knee clearly needs time to heal. Did you see the size of that brace?

And he didn’t get out from the bottom position all day.

Come to think of it, his opportunity to go unscored upon for his college career was spoiled in Cedar Falls as well.

all good bro - we all have our opinions. I'd like to see it play out a bit more.

 

[Mike_a_TetonValley]

all good bro - we all have our opinions. I'd like to see it play out a bit more.

at 71 I'm running out of time. Let them wrestle. Go Hawks!!!

 

[TNTwrestle]

I’m not sure where you came up with this. He’s had 4 regular decisions.

10-3 W Connor Corbin Iowa
5-2 W Jake Woodley Oklahoma
3-1 W Andrew Dixon Oklahoma
5-4 L Jake Woodley Oklahoma

My mistake, I was thinking he had a 3-2 win at Lindenwood and I forgot it was the whole Oklahoma team he wrestled at Lindenwood, not D3 or NAIA . 5-2 and 3-1 aren't exactly tearing it up though, but against better competition than I was remembering. When you get old, sometimes your mind fails you.
He's going to have a great career, and I'm not trying to put him down in any way. I just don't think that he's that much better than Wilcke (if at all) this year, and I'd like to see him have a year to improve enough to make a run at four titles. Maybe I need to stay off this board for awhile because all this "pull the shirts" talk by all the experts on here is getting on my nerves. Let's let TnT earn the big bucks and make the right decisions for these guys.
I have, for a long time, been against automatically redshirting every freshman coming in. I've seen Ok.St. have great success (and some failures) with their true freshmen, and lately Penn. St. doing the same, and wondered why we couldn't/didn't. Gable made exceptions to the rule with mixed results, but he always had good reason, win or lose. If Lee finished last season healthy, and came here heathy, I'd have no reservations about him. If we had nobody decent manning 197 right now, or Warner was five points or more better than Wilcke, I'd probably be more excited about pulling his shirt too. I just can't see wasting a year of eligibility for one of those two guys when we could have six more years between the two of them (provided one can make 184 next year).

 

[TNTwrestle]

All comes down to one simple point that I have come to believe myself: the future is now! By not rasslin now, the future holds the possibility of injuries entering the picture,and a host of other issues potentially mucking things up.

As long as they're ready to rassle, which they seem to be, the future is now!

Spoken like a true UNI fan, speaking dangerous words. And as a Panther fan, I know that you understand the impact of injuries on a team.

 

[edquinn06]

Of course. So is McHenry, but I just used actual signings and people already there in that lineup.

McHenry is a Cornell lean, but that doesn't mean PSU can't change that.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

Yes I know Warner beat Miklus, but if we were placing bets right now I easily take the field. If specific I would take Moore, Miklus, Haught, Weigel way before I net on true freshman Warner.

As far as Sorenson. He got a pin today, but I am still waiting to see him wrestle with a focused sense of urgency. Without that sense of urgency he can be upset by anybody. I don't imagine you foresaw Cruz wrestling Lizak in the 125 finals last year. You let a determined lesser skilled kid hang around bad stuff happens.

I get you are a passionate Hawk fan, but you are presenting a perfect storm scenario which requires the Hawks to hit everything while 3 other teams collectively falter at significant level, and then you ask if it is realistic.

I am just telling you no it is not realistic. But that's OK. Fans do not necessarily have to be realistic. At some point every baseball season I believe the Pirates will somehow manage to get to the World Series.

I think the issue is you're misunderstanding the definition of realistic. Realistic means there are significant odds of it occurring. It doesn't mean the odds are good.

For example, it's not realistic for ISU to win a National title this year. The odds are effectively ~0.

The odds of Iowa may be 10%? Made up number obviously, but the point is they have a small chance if things go perfectly.

When I asked do you see Warner as a realistic champ I wasn't asking if you think he makes the finals over the field. If he beat dominating Miklus in dominating fashion less than a month into his NCAA career that means he has a realistic shot at making the finals. It doesn't mean he's the favorite.

Are you new to watching Sorensen? This is who he's always been. He's like Heil. He's not flashy or high scoring but he knows how to win matches. The fact is he's the clear #2 and heavy favorite to make the finals. Of course upsets happen. I know that. That's what the Hawks are relying on this year to give them an opportunity at a title.

If upsets didn't happen they wouldn't bother wrestling the matches.

And you're saying my scenario requires 3 times collapsing? Not really it requires 2 teams to lose just a few matches that they are favored to win.

PSU on paper aren't even favored to repeat 5 champs right now. For some reason people are counting PSUs points with the assumption that they have a guaranteed 5 champs.

 

[WWDMHawkeye]

I think the issue is you're misunderstanding my definition of realistic. Realistic means there are significant odds of it occurring. It doesn't mean the odds are good.

For example, it's not realistic for ISU to win a National title this year. The odds are effectively ~0.

The odds of Iowa may be 10%? Made up number obviously, but the point is they have a small chance if things go perfectly.

When I asked do you see Warner as a realistic champ I wasn't asking if you think he makes the finals over the field. If he beat dominating Miklus in dominating fashion less than a month into his NCAA career that means he has a realistic shot at making the finals. It doesn't mean he's the favorite.

Are you new to watching Sorensen? This is who he's always been. He's like Heil. He's not flashy or high scoring but he knows how to win matches. The fact is he's the clear #2 and heavy favorite to make the finals. Of course upsets happen. I know that. That's what the Hawks are relying on this year to give them an opportunity at a title.

If upsets didn't happen they wouldn't bother wrestling the matches.

Iowa has won a number of their 23 national titles when they weren't the favorite. In fact, they weren't even the favorite to win it in 1997 when they set the team scoring record, and they blew away the field. Okie State was the favorite that year, IIRC. Upsets happen all the time in wrestling, and they happen on a team level now and then as well as among individuals. No, we wouldn't be the favorite even if we pulled the shirts, but we'd sure make some folks sweat a little and might even pull it off. I'm warming up to the idea of going all-out this season more all the time. Might as well have a blast at Nationals, right?

 

[nitlion6]

I think the issue is you're misunderstanding my definition of realistic. Realistic means there are significant odds of it occurring. It doesn't mean the odds are good.

For example, it's not realistic for ISU to win a National title this year. The odds are effectively ~0.

The odds of Iowa may be 10%? Made up number obviously, but the point is they have a small chance if things go perfectly.

When I asked do you see Warner as a realistic champ I wasn't asking if you think he makes the finals over the field. If he beat dominating Miklus in dominating fashion less than a month into his NCAA career that means he has a realistic shot at making the finals. It doesn't mean he's the favorite.

Are you new to watching Sorensen? This is who he's always been. He's like Heil. He's not flashy or high scoring but he knows how to win matches. The fact is he's the clear #2 and heavy favorite to make the finals. Of course upsets happen. I know that. That's what the Hawks are relying on this year to give them an opportunity at a title.

If upsets didn't happen they wouldn't bother wrestling the matches.

And you're saying my scenario requires 3 times collapsing? Not really it requires 2 teams to lose just a few matches that they are favored to win.

PSU on paper aren't even favored to repeat 5 champs right now. For some reason people are counting PSUs points with the assumption that they have a guaranteed 5 champs.

OK.

 

[MVPFAN]

All comes down to one simple point that I have come to believe myself: the future is now! By not rasslin now, the future holds the possibility of injuries entering the picture,and a host of other issues potentially mucking things up.

As long as they're ready to rassle, which they seem to be, the future is now!

UNI has a board. Use it.

 

[nitlion6]

Iowa has won a number of their 23 national titles when they weren't the favorite. In fact, they weren't even the favorite to win it in 1997 when they set the team scoring record, and they blew away the field. Okie State was the favorite that year, IIRC. Upsets happen all the time in wrestling, and they happen on a team level now and then as well as among individuals. No, we wouldn't be the favorite even if we pulled the shirts, but we'd sure make some folks sweat a little and might even pull it off. I'm warming up to the idea of going all-out this season more all the time. Might as well have a blast at Nationals, right?

In 97 Gable was still running the show.
In 97 Iowa was the premier program loaded with the guys who through experience expected to win.
In 97 there was one team capable of beating Iowa.

This isn't 97, nor has it been for a while.

I hope you guys pull the shirts and give it your best shot. It is just my opinion doing so gives you a shot at Okie State and 3rd place, not Penn State or Ohio State nor one of the top 2 team placements.

 

[MVPFAN]

I’m not sure where you came up with this. He’s had 4 regular decisions.

10-3 W Connor Corbin Iowa
5-2 W Jake Woodley Oklahoma
3-1 W Andrew Dixon Oklahoma
5-4 L Jake Woodley Oklahoma

One thing I have noticed with Warner is he tends to try and reach and grab on his shots at times, more snatching the leg vs fully diving in. He needs to work on that because shots will be harder and harder to come by with that technique.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

Two things:

1.)Iowa should absolutely be better next year than this year. Lee will be better and would still have 4 years(even 5 if he oly shirts) to be the face of Iowa wrestling and absolutely help recruiting. 133 can't get worse. Murin should be a big boost at 141. With Sorenson and a Retherford gone and Jordan up a weight, 149 will be ripe for the taking. 157 is still a monster. Same with 165. At 174, Young can hopefully finally put on the size or at least push Gunther. Wilcke down at 184 can make similar noise as IF Downey wrestles here. Warner will be better and see 125 for the possible effect of the timing. Finally 285 should improve even more if Stoll finishes this year as an Aa gaining not only the confidence he can reach the podium, but more importantly stay healthy.

2.)tOSU loses a TON of proven wrestlers. Hell 3 of them have all reached the finals and haven't placed worse than 3rd in 9 out of 9 tries.

PSU loses a proven 28 NCAA point Machine in Retherford. And then the following year they lose Nolf, Nickal and Nevills. Yes, they are recruiting juggernauts, but they will have at least 4 proven monsters in Lee, Kemerer, Marinelli and Warner with eligibility left and guys like Murin, Cassioppi and even Nelson to push the momentum and at the very least level the playing field.

Simply put, I think patience is a paramount virtue here. Don't leverage the future here on a 2% chance. I see light at the end of the tunnel and that end is close. This team has the makings of the 2008-2010 run. Do everything they can to get a 133 ASAP and this team can be competing for Titles with ANYONE for at least the next 4 years.

Iowa better next year than this year? That's absurd. We lose Sorensen. Lugo is very good but a clear downgrade. We lose PD3. I like Wilcke but he's a clear downgrade over PD3.

Spencer has the potential to win it this season. He will be a better wrestler next year, but 1st place is same points regardless of how good of a wrestler you are. Maybe he gets a couple more bonus points.

Only guy I really agree that could be significantly more points than this year is Warner but even that remains to be seen. He has shown potential that he could be a finalist this year. He does have a lot of room for physical growth so he will be better next year.

I like Murin. But you're counting on him to be a big boost. Fact is he's on the team this year and hasn't proven to be significantly better than Laux or Turk. I think this season we're at best round of 12 at 141. Next season could be AA if Murin can show some good continued improvement.

Either way, I don't see how you can possibly conclude that next year's team > this year's.

Waiting on Nolf, Nickal, Retherford to graduate is the same as waiting for DT, Ruth, etc. Go look at PSUs incoming recruits and keep in mind Brooks is also a PSU lean.

I would say Iowa has greater than 2% chance this season. I think people are underestimating an Iowa team with shirts pulled and Downey in. I don't exactly see why. I guess after seeing Iowa barely beat Illinois people just write them off, but 4 guys weren't in that lineup who could potentially be by end of year.

Again, everyone making this calculation on PSU is doing so with the assumption that 5 champs is a lock. Odds are that they have less than 5.

 

[WWDMHawkeye]

Iowa better next year than this year? That's absurd. We lose Sorensen. Lugo is very good but a clear downgrade. We lose PD3. I like Wilcke but he's a clear downgrade over PD3.

Spencer has the potential to win it this season. He will be a better wrestler next year, but 1st place is same points regardless of how good of a wrestler you are. Maybe he gets a couple more bonus points.

Only guy I really agree that could be significantly more points than this year is Warner but even that remains to be seen. He has shown potential that he could be a finalist this year. He does have a lot of room for physical growth so he will be better next year.

I like Murin. But you're counting on him to be a big boost. Fact is he's on the team this year and hasn't proven to be significantly better than Laux or Turk. I think this season we're at best round of 12 at 141. Next season could be AA if Murin can show some good continued improvement.

Either way, I don't see how you can possibly conclude that next year's team > this year's.

Waiting on Nolf, Nickal, Retherford to graduate is the same as waiting for DT, Ruth, etc. Go look at PSUs incoming recruits and keep in mind Brooks is also a PSU lean.

I would say Iowa has greater than 2% chance this season. I think people are underestimating an Iowa team with shirts pulled and Downey in. I don't exactly see why. I guess after seeing Iowa barely beat Illinois people just write them off, but 4 guys weren't in that lineup who could potentially be by end of year.

Again, everyone making this calculation on PSU is doing so with the assumption that 5 champs is a lock. Odds are that they have less than 5.

And if we put our guys in the finals and pull off a couple of big upsets, that's a huge swing in the team race. Sure, Retherford and Nolf will be favored, but they don't wrestle the matches on paper. Crazier things have happened at Nationals. It's an 8-point swing if we get one and a 16-point swing if we shock the world and get both. I'm not even close to saying we'll win championships at 49 and 57, but Kem and Sorensen are tough cookies and very capable. They have a shot, even if odds are against them. Much like the team as a whole.

My only regret about pulling out all of the stops this year is that I won't be there, and if we happen to pull it off, I'll regret the heck out of that. But I'll still take it.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

My mistake, I was thinking he had a 3-2 win at Lindenwood and I forgot it was the whole Oklahoma team he wrestled at Lindenwood, not D3 or NAIA . 5-2 and 3-1 aren't exactly tearing it up though, but against better competition than I was remembering. When you get old, sometimes your mind fails you.
He's going to have a great career, and I'm not trying to put him down in any way. I just don't think that he's that much better than Wilcke (if at all) this year, and I'd like to see him have a year to improve enough to make a run at four titles. Maybe I need to stay off this board for awhile because all this "pull the shirts" talk by all the experts on here is getting on my nerves. Let's let TnT earn the big bucks and make the right decisions for these guys.
I have, for a long time, been against automatically redshirting every freshman coming in. I've seen Ok.St. have great success (and some failures) with their true freshmen, and lately Penn. St. doing the same, and wondered why we couldn't/didn't. Gable made exceptions to the rule with mixed results, but he always had good reason, win or lose. If Lee finished last season healthy, and came here heathy, I'd have no reservations about him. If we had nobody decent manning 197 right now, or Warner was five points or more better than Wilcke, I'd probably be more excited about pulling his shirt too. I just can't see wasting a year of eligibility for one of those two guys when we could have six more years between the two of them (provided one can make 184 next year).

How are there still people making the claim that Wilcke = Warner.

Warner has already won the head to head. Warner dominated Miklus. Do you see Wilcke beating Miklus let alone dominate?

Everyone did a 180 after Warner's loss at UNI. One bad match. Let's wait and see how he does at Midlands. No reason to make the decision to pull or not pull shirt not. It's pretty obvious the coaches mindset is wait til Midlands as well.

Warner > Wilcke. I like Wilcke and think he can AA at 97 this season. I think Warner can high AA and even make the finals this season.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

How are there still people making the claim that Wilcke = Warner.

Warner has already won the head to head. Warner dominated Miklus. Do you see Wilcke beating Miklus let alone dominate?

Everyone did a 180 after Warner's loss at UNI. One bad match. Let's wait and see how he does at Midlands. No reason to make the decision to pull or not pull shirt not. It's pretty obvious the coaches mindset is wait til Midlands as well.

Warner > Wilcke. I like Wilcke and think he can AA at 97 this season. I think Warner can high AA and even make the finals this season.

We KNOW what you think.

Can you stop beating us over the head with it all the time until Midlands???

Take a breath...........you're sucking all the air out of here.

 

[Atdawn123]

I loved watching Lee yesterday! I think he’s ready to contend now, but he has to win midlands that means beating suriano. He doesn’t beat Suriano he stays in red shirt.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

We KNOW what you think.

Can you stop beating us over the head with it all the time until Midlands???

Take a breath...........you're sucking all the air out of here.

We have 2 people here stating Warner = Wilcke. That's ridiculous.

 

[sdvike]

If medical has cleared him physically and he plows through Midlands, then I think Spencer and his parents and Coach have to have a serious conversation.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

If medical has cleared him physically and he plows through Midlands, then I think Spencer and his parents and Coach have to have a serious conversation.

He has already been medically cleared. He just wrestled at the UNI open.

 

[MSU158]

One last thing. PSU doesn't need 5 champs again to score 135+and THAT is why I don't see Iowa getting them even if they had a phenomenal tourney

Short of injury, and even then they may win it, Retherford and Nolf are scoring 54+ between them. Say somehow Martin upsets Nickal(sorry PD2 and 3 I actually need to see you make the team and wrestle some DI matches before I could even consider adding you to the spoiler list) Nickal still gets his 3 pin minimum and scores 21ish. say Hall and Joseph both take 3rd, that is still about 34 or so. So those 5 guys alone are at 109. Nevills has shown he is improved from last season and should be good for a dozen at minimum. 197 is thin and I just can't see Cassar, let alone McC not make the podium. Say 9 more. Say a couple wins from Keener and Lee and you get to 135 with an average performance from PSU.

Now, tOSU. NATO doesn't make the finals he is still good for 17. Pletcher not AAing gets them 4. McKenna takes 5th gets them 10. Hayes gets 4. Jordan gets 8. Campbell 4. BoJo 17. Martin 24. Moore 20 and Snyder 26. That is 134 and again is them wrestling average at best.

Say Iowa goes all in. Lee gets 25, 133 gets 0, Turk gets 2, Sorenson gets 17, Kemerer gets 20, Marinelli gets 11, Gunther gets 3, Downey gets 17, Warner gets 20 and Stoll gets 15.

That is 130 with me really giving them all the benefit of the doubt. So damn near their best possible outcome doesn't get them to average performances from both tOSU and PSU.

I am a numbers man and I just don't see the numbers adding up this year for Iowa, but I absolutely do starting next year and want to see them keep that going as long as possible.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

One last thing. PSU doesn't need 5 champs again to score 135+and THAT is why I don't see Iowa getting them even if they had a phenomenal tourney

Short of injury, and even then they may win it, Retherford and Nolf are scoring 54+ between them. Say somehow Martin upsets Nickal(sorry PD2 and 3 I actually need to see you make the team and wrestle some DI matches before I could even consider adding you to the spoiler list) Nickal still gets his 3 pin minimum and scores 21ish. say Hall and Joseph both take 3rd, that is still about 34 or so. So those 5 guys alone are at 109. Nevills has shown he is improved from last season and should be good for a dozen at minimum. 197 is thin and I just can't see Cassar, let alone McC not make the podium. Say 9 more. Say a couple wins from Keener and Lee and you get to 135 with an average performance from PSU.

Now, tOSU. NATO doesn't make the finals he is still good for 17. Pletcher not AAing gets them 4. McKenna takes 5th gets them 10. Hayes gets 4. Jordan gets 8. Campbell 4. BoJo 17. Martin 24. Moore 20 and Snyder 26. That is 134 and again is them wrestling average at best.

Say Iowa goes all in. Lee gets 25, 133 gets 0, Turk gets 2, Sorenson gets 17, Kemerer gets 20, Marinelli gets 11, Gunther gets 3, Downey gets 17, Warner gets 20 and Stoll gets 15.

That is 130 with me really giving them all the benefit of the doubt. So damn near their best possible outcome doesn't get them to average performances from both tOSU and PSU.

I am a numbers man and I just don't see the numbers adding up this year for Iowa, but I absolutely do starting next year and want to see them keep that going as long as possible.

Show me your projected numbers for next year then. PSU only loses retherford. How do you see Iowa scoring more points at nationals next year than this year with no PD3 or Sorensen?

 

[MSU158]

Show me your projected numbers for next year then. PSU only loses retherford. How do you see Iowa scoring more points at nationals next year than this year with no PD3 or Sorensen?

It isn't so much that Iowa scores more next year as it is I think that 130 number is just as attainable and much more likely to win next year.

Lee gets 25, 133 scores 1, Murin scores 7, Lugo scores 17(honestly 149 will be ripe for the taking and it is a shame Sorenson graduates, but even though Lugo isn't quite as good he could very realistically score more), Kemerer is good for 20, Marinelli should move up a bit with IMar graduating so give him 15, Young or Gunther get 5, Wilcke gets 10, Warner gets 20 and Stoll gets 17 with Snyder and Coon graduating.

That is 137 which honestly leaves them room to drop to 120 which I think would still be enough.

Now, PSU. They will need to rely on at least 2TF and another possible rs fosh if they even want to remotely try to cover Retherford's 28 or so. Teasedale/RBY man 125/133. Give them the benefit that neither fold and they account for 14. Lee is either a true soph or a rs frost when he takes the mat. Give him 7. Berge looks to be a The 4th frosh at the first 4 weights. Give him 7. That is giving all 4 possible. freshmen a 7th place finish each. Odds are against that even if they wrestle for PSU. Then if you give PSU the exact same as I Did last year from 157 up that gives them 130.

Finally, I don't see another lineup getting to that number except maybe OkState, but if Smith can't make 157 anymore, I doubt they can get there.

 

[TNTwrestle]

We KNOW what you think.

Can you stop beating us over the head with it all the time until Midlands???

Take a breath...........you're sucking all the air out of here.

THANK YOU!!!

 

[TNTwrestle]

We have 2 people here stating Warner = Wilcke. That's ridiculous.

How is that ridiculus? A one point win in the wrestle-offs and a win over an overrated guy who occasionally has brain farts and loses to guys he shouldn't is not proof of superiority over Wilke. As I have stated, Warner is a great talent, and a potential multi-time NC, but there is no proof he is any better than Wilcke at this point. It just makes to sense to make that move. You also keep talking like PD3 is a lock to be a finalist for the Hawks, and he's not even a lock to be on the team yet.
Obviously, facts and logic mean nothing to you.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

We have 2 people here stating Warner = Wilcke. That's ridiculous.

Well..........YEA..............It's Ridiculous.

Doesn't mean you have to be the junkyard guard dog and bark at every squirrel that runs across the tree top.

Chill out.............go smoke somethin illegal and relax.........

Don't make me start a New Poll about who gets banned first............You or Ban Basketball.........

 

[bammhawk1]

MSU has a point. PSU will bonus the shit out of their opponents. Go back and look at all of PSU's Champ seasons. Its unreal how many points they get by bonus. Last season after Suriano went down people were saying others had a chance and PSU still ran away with it. Now, that being said, anything can happen and it seems like luck is always on PSU's side and they get the breaks. But, you also make your own breaks. I hope TnT put the best team out there and if that includes Lee and Warner, so be it. Just hope we stay healthy through the season as luck is hopefully on our side this year and we make a few breaks of our own

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

There is no proof he is any better than Wilcke at this point. It just makes to sense to make that move. You also keep talking like PD3 is a lock to be a finalist for the Hawks, and he's not even a lock to be on the team yet.
Obviously, facts and logic mean nothing to you.

You can't be serious man. Facts and logic mean nothing to me, then you go onto contradict yourself?

You just said there is no proof Warner is better than Wilcke when Warner won the head to head and has beaten a higher quality opponent than Wilcke ever has in many less matches at the NCAA level.

Secondly, I've never talked as if PD3 is a lock to make the finals. Reread my posts. I've said he's likely a high AA with a realistic shot at making the finals.

It's fine if you disagree but you're misrepresenting my words.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

Well..........YEA..............It's Ridiculous.

Doesn't mean you have to be the junkyard guard dog and bark at every squirrel that runs across the tree top.

Chill out.............go smoke somethin illegal and relax.........

Don't make me start a New Poll about who gets banned first............You or Ban Basketball.........

Who needs to relax? Irony. Ignore me if my posts bother you.

 

[squibs]

One thing bothers me. Many on here talk only about an NCAA title....and forget the rest. The greatest pleasure most of us will get is walking into Carver expecting the Hawks to pound the other guys....or try their best to. 8 times this year up to 15,000 fans will walk in excited. Me? I want the best guys out there. Teams want to win...my guess is teammates also want the best guys out there. Got a hammer at 125 sitting on the bench for the opener? No thank you. Got your best 97 guy taking a year off? No need for that. Get them the experience and maybe they'll be ready in March. Saving our best on the chance that they'll be a four-timer? Fool's gold.

Patience may...or may not...work. Id rather know in each dual or meet we gave our best shot. I'm not a fan of throw-away years.

 

[Dagboi]

One last thing. PSU doesn't need 5 champs again to score 135+and THAT is why I don't see Iowa getting them even if they had a phenomenal tourney

Short of injury, and even then they may win it, Retherford and Nolf are scoring 54+ between them. Say somehow Martin upsets Nickal(sorry PD2 and 3 I actually need to see you make the team and wrestle some DI matches before I could even consider adding you to the spoiler list) Nickal still gets his 3 pin minimum and scores 21ish. say Hall and Joseph both take 3rd, that is still about 34 or so. So those 5 guys alone are at 109. Nevills has shown he is improved from last season and should be good for a dozen at minimum. 197 is thin and I just can't see Cassar, let alone McC not make the podium. Say 9 more. Say a couple wins from Keener and Lee and you get to 135 with an average performance from PSU.

Now, tOSU. NATO doesn't make the finals he is still good for 17. Pletcher not AAing gets them 4. McKenna takes 5th gets them 10. Hayes gets 4. Jordan gets 8. Campbell 4. BoJo 17. Martin 24. Moore 20 and Snyder 26. That is 134 and again is them wrestling average at best.

Say Iowa goes all in. Lee gets 25, 133 gets 0, Turk gets 2, Sorenson gets 17, Kemerer gets 20, Marinelli gets 11, Gunther gets 3, Downey gets 17, Warner gets 20 and Stoll gets 15.

That is 130 with me really giving them all the benefit of the doubt. So damn near their best possible outcome doesn't get them to average performances from both tOSU and PSU.

I am a numbers man and I just don't see the numbers adding up this year for Iowa, but I absolutely do starting next year and want to see them keep that going as long as possible.

Hilarious that you have Marinelli only scoring 11 but Nevills scoring "a dozen at least".....you need to watch more matches, brah.....

 

[Dagboi]

Gawd, who even needs Penn St, tOSU, and OK St fans on here to run us down and poor-mouth our chances? We've got our own fans doing it for them! It's one thing to be strategic, and one to be pragmatic, and one to be Iowa humble, and one to keep expectations to a dull roar while kids are working out the kinks early in a season....but it's a whole 'nother situation to naysay our kids come tournament time and basically say we don't believe in them as fans, or in their ability to outperform what the rest of the nation WHO ARE NOT HAWK FANS expect of them.

Whatever happened to believing in our coaches, and in iron sharpens iron, and in our kids' ability to put a fire in their belly in March and tear through a bracket? My gawd, I never heard such a bunch of negative nellies and debbie downers in all my born days. Try having a little faith in the three to four dozen men in that wrestling room, that they are going to do what it takes to bring back our Hawkeye pride and restore respect for doing it the Iowa way and Gable way.

Good news is, even you Debbie Downers are going to be overwhelmed by the evidence on the mat, as the mercury plummets and the snow starts to fall. We'll welcome you back into the faith with open arms and have a helluva good time together in March.

GO HAWKS

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

You have Wilke ranked closer to the 20-25 range? You realize he made it to the RD of 12 last year as a freshman, effectively up a weight. One win away from being an AA.

Oh trust me, I realize it...and I hope he does at least that well again this year. And believe me, I want to jump on the "Wilcke's a true top 10" bandwagon, but I need to see him go up against a couple quality 97ers before I'm sold. Love the kid and hope he keeps improving and wins it all. And I will be sold on his current ranking if he looks solid at the Midlands and during the meets against Ohio State, Okie and Michigan. And clearly I don't expect him to beat the likes of Moore and Weigel (not yet), but I will be sold if he looks solid against both of them.

 

[Mike_a_TetonValley]

Gawd, who even needs Penn St, tOSU, and OK St fans on here to run us down and poor-mouth our chances? We've got our own fans doing it for them! It's one thing to be strategic, and one to be pragmatic, and one to be Iowa humble, and one to keep expectations to a dull roar while kids are working out the kinks early in a season....but it's a whole 'nother situation to naysay our kids come tournament time and basically say we don't believe in them as fans, or in their ability to outperform what the rest of the nation WHO ARE NOT HAWK FANS expect of them.

Whatever happened to believing in our coaches, and in iron sharpens iron, and in our kids' ability to put a fire in their belly in March and tear through a bracket? My gawd, I never heard such a bunch of negative nellies and debbie downers in all my born days. Try having a little faith in the three to four dozen men in that wrestling room, that they are going to do what it takes to bring back our Hawkeye pride and restore respect for doing it the Iowa way and Gable way.

Good news is, even you Debbie Downers are going to be overwhelmed by the evidence on the mat, as the mercury plummets and the snow starts to fall. We'll welcome you back into the faith with open arms and have a helluva good time together in March.

GO HAWKS

Nice rally call, but total BS.

 

[Dagboi]

Nice rally call, but total BS.

Hey, somebody around here has to fire up these Lou Holtz-sounding, sky-is-falling, woe-is-me sumbitches. Chests out, chins high, boys.....remember, you are HAWKS FANS!

Clear eyes, full hearts....can't lose.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

Show me your projected numbers for next year then. PSU only loses retherford. How do you see Iowa scoring more points at nationals next year than this year with no PD3 or Sorensen?

vodka, how is next year even relevant to the discussion? Lee and Warner will be in the lineup either way or are you suggesting they take their redshirt next year?

Hilarious that you have Marinelli only scoring 11 but Nevills scoring "a dozen at least".....you need to watch more matches, brah.....

Why is that so hilarious. Nevills is ranked #3, Marinelli isn't ranked in the top 10 and is 0-2 against guys ranked ahead of him at 165. If anything, the projected difference should be more then 1.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

vodka, how is next year even relevant to the discussion? Lee and Warner will be in the lineup either way or are you suggesting they take their redshirt next year?

How is next year relevant? Because he said he thinks Iowa has the potential to be better next year than this year. Which is why I was curious his projected points.

I disagree that we're better next year than this year as we lose Sorensen and PD3. Gain Cass and Brands who won't be in the lineup next season.