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Changed My Mind on Lee’s Red Shirt

Having a couple of guys surprisingly make rd 12 does not make up for multiple ranked guys finishing below seed. More wrestlers finished behind expectations than ahead of them, and the team scored fewer points than projected. And that has been the case for several years.
Gilman was the only real disappointment of the entire tournament. He should have won. Kemerer probably should have been in the finals, but he was a freshman that finished 3rd and put up a lot of bonus on the back side. He wasn't beating Nolf even if he got there. Most of our guys had pretty much no opportunity to improve on their seed. Clark was the one exception, and he won the damn thing. If last year wasn't a good tournament, expectations were out of whack.
 
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Having a couple of guys surprisingly make rd 12 does not make up for multiple ranked guys finishing below seed. More wrestlers finished behind expectations than ahead of them, and the team scored fewer points than projected. And that has been the case for several years.
The facts disagree with you. Regardless of their placing we pretty much held serve in regards to our placing/vs seeding. We didn't really overachieve or underachieve. You can discount our R12 guys but that again is cherry picking. We had a few overachieve and a few underacheive. For the first time in a while it wasn't a flop and that is a fact.
 
The team did okay, but we are talking about how well they did compared to expectations, and I don't recall the numbers but I recall our total points came in below projected.

Yes, we did better in points than lately, and other than injury I think we prolly had fewer disappointments than lately. And having Kem place 3rd was huge, even if he was the 2 seed.

But this has not been a team to meet or exceed expectations at Nationals.
You don't need to recall the numbers. You can look them up.

Gilman was a 1 seed and finished 3rd
Clark was a 4 seed and finished 1st
Sorenson was a 5 seed and finished 3rd
Kemerer was a 2 seed and finished 3rd

Carton, Meyers, brooks did about as expected(maybe carton exceeded a bit)

Gunther and Cash exceeded expectations.

Sorry but those are the facts. I'm sorry if they don't meet your narrative.
 
Lineups of Iowa and Penn State's teams this year if Iowa pulls the shirts. (Not sure how many points teams get at NCAAs per bonus and round so I'm just going to predict placement.) And let me say this is best case scenario for Iowa but not out of this world

125: Lee (Champ, bonus at least into Semis)
133: Laux (Qualifer, maybe a couple points)
141: Turk/Happle (Qualifer, maybe a couple points)
149: Sorensen (Finalist, bonus into quarters)
157: Kemerer (CHAMP, bonus into the Semis)
165: Marinelli (Mid to Hi AA, don't think he's too far off from Vincenzo, 3-6 range, some bonus)
174: Gunther (Win a couple matches, possibly round of 12, probably not much bonus but will grind out some wins)
184: Downey (Finalist/Champ, hasn't even wrestled here yet and who knows, but hey you gotta believe, couple bonus wins)
197: Wilcke (Low AA, 6th-8th place, probably not much bonus)
Warner (High AA, Finalist if he wrestles like he can, bonus to semis/quarters)
285: Stoll (Mid to High AA, 3rd-6th place, some big pins somewhere in the tourney)
So best case scenario we have 8 AA's, 5 finalists, and 3 champs. And remember that's probably best case, if things go right.

Probably not best case for Penn State
Penn State
125: Schnupp (non qualifier, unless they have another guy they probably won't qualify here)
133: Keener (qualifier, win a couple matches, maybe round of 12, not going to place)
141: Cortez (low AA, 6th to 8th, will get some bonus)
149: Retherford (champ, will bonus way to the finals, hopefully Sorensen doesn't get bonused)
157: Nolf (finalist/champ, bonus to semis or finals, Kemdawg gonna get the upset)
165: Vincenzo (finalist/high AA, 2nd-4th, don't see him beating IMar again, will get some bonus)
174: Hall (champ/high AA, could win this, but could also get 3rd, will get bonus)
184: Nickal (finalist/champ, would be a shock if not in the finals, will probably bonus his way there, Downey for the W tho)
197: Cassar (low AA, 6th-8th, haven't seen a lot of him so he could also be a top 6 guy, or maybe R12 so I'm going 6th-8th, not sure on bonus)
285: Nevills (high to mid AA, see somewhere from 3rd-5th, expecting more of a 4th/5th, hopefully Stoll can beat him)

So, I'm giving Penn State 8 AA's, 4 finalists (I think ether Vincenzo or Hall won't make it again, and two champs, with the Downey and Kemerer upset. Obviously I know this isn't best case scenario for Penn State and who knows they might go off again this NCAA's and kill my prediction. And bonus will factor in here as well, but hey I'm and optimist and a dreamer, and I think Iowa can definitely get a trophy and have a chance for a title. Go Hawks, let's get it done.
You need introduced to the Tourney Projection Tool...https://www.wrestlestat.com/tourney/projection
 
The facts disagree with you. Regardless of their placing we pretty much held serve in regards to our placing/vs seeding. We didn't really overachieve or underachieve. You can discount our R12 guys but that again is cherry picking. We had a few overachieve and a few underacheive. For the first time in a while it wasn't a flop and that is a fact.

We lost one match in wrestlebacks on Sat...Brooks got planted by Dudley. Sat is when we usually have our head up our butts for the past 5-6 years. I was there...thought it was a pretty good round at 7-1. Gilman (Dance, Picc) Sorensen (Chisko, Jordan) Kemerer (Berger, Smith), Brooks (Martin). A lot of solid beats in that group.
 
You don't need to recall the numbers. You can look them up.

Gilman was a 1 seed and finished 3rd
Clark was a 4 seed and finished 1st
Sorenson was a 5 seed and finished 3rd
Kemerer was a 2 seed and finished 3rd

Carton, Meyers, brooks did about as expected(maybe carton exceeded a bit)

Gunther and Cash exceeded expectations.

Sorry but those are the facts. I'm sorry if they don't meet your narrative.

Okay, you are correct that my memory is inaccurate and probably clouded by the disappointment. I guess I viewed Meyers and Brooks as disappointments, but that had more to do with the improvement over their careers as opposed to their actual performance at NCAA's last year.

And, honestly, my expectations of their improvement was not realistic. Brooks in particular, had a very nice career.
 
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Two very important quotes in that reel:

How’s the knee?
“Good. Good as new.”

and

“Matches are always a lot different than practice.”

That, in a nutshell, is why he is going to go this year. You don’t take a hiatus from developing a masterpiece. That Sistine Chapel ain’t gonna paint itself.

2577-004-DA7549AE.jpg
 
That's just cherry picking those that may have underperformed and it's disingenuous. Look at the team as a whole. You also have to include Gunther and Cash and Clark. Let's try to be real and honest on these debates
Cherry picking? LOL! That's 1/3 of the team, and the guys that have to perform if something good is going to happen, like win a Team National Title, which is the topic at hand if I'm not mistaken. I don't think it could get any more "real" than what I pointed out.

Of course there were some good performances, there always will be some. The point is it has to happen better across the board if you want the biggest Trophy, and until that Does happen, we aren't going to win one. Which again, is what the subject matter is.

That is the reality whether you like it or not. We can keep doing what we've been doing and we will keep finishing well back if we do. It doesn't get any more simple than that.

I'm not stating an opinion. Those are the facts, which the records will clearly show.
 
Cherry picking? LOL! That's 1/3 of the team, and the guys that have to perform if something good is going to happen, like win a Team National Title, which is the topic at hand if I'm not mistaken. I don't think it could get any more "real" than what I pointed out.

Of course there were some good performances, there always will be some. The point is it has to happen better across the board if you want the biggest Trophy, and until that Does happen, we aren't going to win one. Which again, is what the subject matter is.

That is the reality whether you like it or not. We can keep doing what we've been doing and we will keep finishing well back if we do. It doesn't get any more simple than that.

I'm not stating an opinion. Those are the facts, which the records will clearly show.

If you are focusing on the 1/3 of team that fell short of their seed and ignore all those who surpassed their seed... that is cherry picking.
 
The tournament last year was a solid, good performance. I think the majority will agree that it was one of the better performances against expectations in awhile, yet 2-3 guys still missed expectations which it sounds odd is to be expected. Some of the projections people are throwing out right now have everybody wrestling to expectations. Would be great to see.
 
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Seriously a 1 seed loses an OT match in the semis to the Champ and wrestles hard back for 3rd and he is a disappointment? Did winning NCAA's all of a sudden become an easy thing to win for 1 seeds? A disappointment is the 1 seed taking 8th or not even placing. 3rd shows heart. When your ultimate goal is crushed it is very hard not to mail it in on the backside.

The rest of the team was a very strong performance. Clark, considering his injuries, may have been the MOW. Carton exceeded expectations. 3rd from Sorenson was all you could ask for hitting Retherford in the semis. Kemerer lost to a funk master as a bit of a raw freshman and still, he pounded his way back to 3rd. Gunther impressed. Meyer was Meyer. His style was good enough to steal a match from a top 5 guys, but in a tournament of the best 33, he is consistently going to be a 7-12 type guy and he fell into this range. Brooks took 4th losing to 2 guys that were simply better. Wilcke impressed and Stoll was injured.

Honestly, I don't see a single disappointment. To me that is a very strong performance relative to realistic expectations. If the talent level increases was as it appears it will, this range of results related to seeds most likely wins a team title.
 
Cherry picking? LOL! That's 1/3 of the team, and the guys that have to perform if something good is going to happen, like win a Team National Title, which is the topic at hand if I'm not mistaken. I don't think it could get any more "real" than what I pointed out.

Of course there were some good performances, there always will be some. The point is it has to happen better across the board if you want the biggest Trophy, and until that Does happen, we aren't going to win one. Which again, is what the subject matter is.

That is the reality whether you like it or not. We can keep doing what we've been doing and we will keep finishing well back if we do. It doesn't get any more simple than that.

I'm not stating an opinion. Those are the facts, which the records will clearly show.
I'm not sure you have a firm grasp on the definition of fact or the definition of opinion. Just because you strongly believe something doesn't make it fact. What is a fact however is that using only a part of the set of data(in this case 30%) while ignoring 70% of the data is indeed cherry picking. I'm not saying one way or another whether we can win it all this year. I am just stating my opinion that we didn't underacheive last year. I backed up that opinion with a bunch of facts.
 
Seriously a 1 seed loses an OT match in the semis to the Champ and wrestles hard back for 3rd and he is a disappointment? Did winning NCAA's all of a sudden become an easy thing to win for 1 seeds? A disappointment is the 1 seed taking 8th or not even placing. 3rd shows heart. When your ultimate goal is crushed it is very hard not to mail it in on the backside.

The rest of the team was a very strong performance. Clark, considering his injuries, may have been the MOW. Carton exceeded expectations. 3rd from Sorenson was all you could ask for hitting Retherford in the semis. Kemerer lost to a funk master as a bit of a raw freshman and still, he pounded his way back to 3rd. Gunther impressed. Meyer was Meyer. His style was good enough to steal a match from a top 5 guys, but in a tournament of the best 33, he is consistently going to be a 7-12 type guy and he fell into this range. Brooks took 4th losing to 2 guys that were simply better. Wilcke impressed and Stoll was injured.

Honestly, I don't see a single disappointment. To me that is a very strong performance relative to realistic expectations. If the talent level increases was as it appears it will, this range of results related to seeds most likely wins a team title.

I think any #1 seed that loses will tell you it's a disappointment.
 
Oh wow, I like that tool a lot. I can't exactly figure out how to add Spencer Lee to the list of 125 pounders though... it said something about write ins being at the bottom but I can't find it. Do I need to be on desktop because I'm currently on my phone?
Oh yes, I never intended it to work on mobile/small devices. Try it on desktop when you get a chance...
 
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And if the shirt is pulled and Lee comes up short at nationals, every single one of you will be pissed. Brands will become the whipping boy for Iowa missing out on having a 4 time undeafeated National Champion.... the only ones staying quiet will be those that have posted here in support of pulling the shirt. They’ll want to bitch but know they can’t...
Billy-D approves.
Billy-D_Approves.gif
 
If the knee was 100% good as new we would not be seeing that giant brace on it. I certainly am as excited as anyone to see him competing but do not expect him to beat suriano at this point while wearing that big ol brace on his leg. Having said that I am very excited to see how midlands go.
 
I think any #1 seed that loses will tell you it's a disappointment.

Being disappointed and it BEING a disappointment are different things.

Hell, Terry Brands threw away his Olympic bronze medal and it would still be gone if not for a friend and his son. Terry may have been disappointed, but his winning a BRONZE was NOT a dissapointment!
 
If the knee was 100% good as new we would not be seeing that giant brace on it. I certainly am as excited as anyone to see him competing but do not expect him to beat suriano at this point while wearing that big ol brace on his leg. Having said that I am very excited to see how midlands go.

Don't know. Did you see the brace Cory Clark had on his shoulder most of last year...looked like he was protecting a dislocated shoulder. If we would have sidelined him he would not have won the NCAA championship. Don't get too excited about a "giant brace" no matter how bad it looks. Marinelli kicked ass with his giant brace last weekend. :)
 
Being disappointed and it BEING a disappointment are different things.

Hell, Terry Brands threw away his Olympic bronze medal and it would still be gone if not for a friend and his son. Terry may have been disappointed, but his winning a BRONZE was NOT a dissapointment!

Amen, brother! What a horrible thought...being 3rd best in the world!! :)
 
Being disappointed and it BEING a disappointment are different things.

Hell, Terry Brands threw away his Olympic bronze medal and it would still be gone if not for a friend and his son. Terry may have been disappointed, but his winning a BRONZE was NOT a dissapointment!

Has Terry commented about it being a disappointment?
 
Has Terry commented about it being a disappointment?

Again, a placement being a disappointment to the person that achieved it is VASTLY different than the person BEING a disappointment for that achievement.

Over the last 10 years, just over 1/2 the 1 seeds won it or 52% to be exact. Considering that, I can't consider a 3rd place finisher a disappointment. Now if 90% won, I would be more inclined to do so. But, a 1 seed is basically a coin flip to win it and that is because nearly all of the 33 guys that are there are every bit as hungry and most have learned to be at their very best at that time of year. Having to win all 5 of your matches, over the course of 3 days, against that field makes it that much harder.

2017: 5 of 10 1 seeds were NCAA Champs
2016: 6 of 10 were
2015: 6 of 10
2014: 3 of 10
2013: 5 of 10
2012: 7 of 10
2011: 6 of 10
2010: 6 of 10
2009: 4 of 10
2008: 4 of 10
 
Again, a placement being a disappointment to the person that achieved it is VASTLY different than the person BEING a disappointment for that achievement.

Over the last 10 years, just over 1/2 the 1 seeds won it or 52% to be exact. Considering that, I can't consider a 3rd place finisher a disappointment. Now if 90% won, I would be more inclined to do so. But, a 1 seed is basically a coin flip to win it and that is because nearly all of the 33 guys that are there are every bit as hungry and most have learned to be at their very best at that time of year. Having to win all 5 of your matches, over the course of 3 days, against that field makes it that much harder.

2017: 5 of 10 1 seeds were NCAA Champs
2016: 6 of 10 were
2015: 6 of 10
2014: 3 of 10
2013: 5 of 10
2012: 7 of 10
2011: 6 of 10
2010: 6 of 10
2009: 4 of 10
2008: 4 of 10
It was a disappointing performance, because he was clearly the best wrestler in the bracket and didn't get it done. Nobody is trying to make the argument that it's somehow easy to win a NCAA title and guaranteed if you're the #1 seed.
 
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It was a disappointing performance, because he was clearly the best wrestler in the bracket and didn't get it done. Nobody is trying to make the argument that it's somehow easy to win a NCAA title and guaranteed if you're the #1 seed.

Maybe we are arguing semantics and I am being too literal with wording, but being disappointed by a 3rd place finish instead of 1st is acceptable to me. Calling a 3rd place finish at the NCAA tournament by a guy that has never won it after losing an OT match to the eventual champ a disappointment isn't.
 
Try this for context and then I will bow out of the disappointed vs. disappointment thread heist:

Your father says to you:

A.) I am very disappointed in you.

B.)You are a major disappointment to me.

Which one hurts more?
 
Try this for context and then I will bow out of the disappointed vs. disappointment thread heist:

Your father says to you:

A.) I am very disappointed in you.

B.)You are a major disappointment to me.

Which one hurts more?

Neither. I'd just say, "If you aren't a fan of me, then eff you." ;)
 
Did I get an answer on my question? I would be surprised if Terry didn't consider his bronze a disappointment. For me a bronze would be huge, for him? You answer.
 
If you are focusing on the 1/3 of team that fell short of their seed and ignore all those who surpassed their seed... that is cherry picking.
Well I could have given a synopsis on the entire team, but the point was your big guns need to perform if you're going to win NCAA Titles, and ours didn't. That was the topic of discussion earlier in this thread. You can celebrate Cash Wilckes surprising run to Rd 12 all you want, but that isn't winning NCAA Titles if others aren't doing similar things (i.e. overperforming). Whether they wrestle back for 3rd or not is irrelevant, the big points aren't earned in the consolation bracket.

Here's another fact. We finished 49.5 points back from the National Team Champions.

#1 Gilman was undefeated and a runaway freight train favorite and loses in the Semi's to #4 seed Darian Cruz, a guy not even mentioned to win it THIS year by many, and currently ranked 4th as a Defending Champion.

Sorensen is 4th as a freshman, 2nd as a sophomore and only on paper is he a #5 seed. He gets tossed every which way but loose and then gets stuck, in a match where he's proven he can hang and possibly win if he shows up. He didn't.

#2 seed Kemerer gets stuck by the #7 seed in the quarterfinals.

Here's what Penn States big guns did.

#1 Retherford = Champion
#1 Nolf = Champion
#3 Joseph = Champion
#5 Hall = Champion
#2 Nickal = Champion

Now you see how this works when you "overperform? You win NCAA Team Titles. That was the topic. That's what my commentary was about, and I clearly stated these guys are great Hawkeyes, but they didn't "overperform" at last years NCAA's. The team that beat us by 49.5 points did.

That's the point. Get it yet?
 
Talk about taking cherry picking to a new level. Sheesh here is all of the IRREFUTABLE data.

125:Gilman was the #1 seed and took 3rd. That is underperforming, but it ISN'T a major one.
133:Clark was the #4 seed and INJURED. Taking 1st was a significant overperformance.
141:Carton was unseeded and went 2-2 with a major decision. Solid overperformance.
149: If Sorenson is only the 5 seed "on paper" the same could be said for Hall or Joseph. Sorenson was the 5 seed because he lost to Lugo the last match of the regular season and Jordan at B1G's. Twist it all you want but 3rd from where he was seeded was ALL you could possibly ask for. Oh, and the guy avenged his loss to Jordan.....TWICE!
157:Kemerer was wrestling his 1st time at NCAA's and won his 1st 2 matches 14-3 and 22-6. He would then lose to possibly the most dangerous guy at the weight, who most likely would have been the Finalist if not for an injury the next match that pushed him back to 6th. Then Kemerer wins his next 3 matches, all by MD. He then beats Smith 7-1 in OT. He actually scored MORE POINTS going through the backside than he would have if he took 2nd to Nolf.
165:Gunther was unseeded and went 2-2. Solid performance.
174:Meyer was seeded 11th and beat the 6 Preisch seed to make the quarters. He then lost 4-3 to BoJo and drew #7 Crutchmer in the R12 losing a crazy match 13-10. I fail to see how that in anyway wasn't a strong performance.
184:Brooks was the 3 seed and won 2 of his 1st 3 matches by FALL. He would then lose to Nickal in a fashion that proved he DID NOT match up well with him. He then beat an NCAA Champ in Martin yet again to make the 3rd/4th match. He would then lose to Dudley(an NCAA Finalist the year before) bringing his record to 1-3 against him the last 2 seasons.
197:Unseeded Wilcke won 3 matches beating 2 seeded guys in Sleigh and Mattiace.
285:Stoll was injured.

The only guy you can make a realistic description of underperformance is Gilman. Brooks is the only other than you could nitpick 3rd to 4th, but calling him a favorite over Dudley was a stretch. Even though Kemerer finished 1 spot lower, he SCORED MORE POINTS that way.

So to be clear:

125:Underperformed by about 5 points.
133:Overperformed by 7 points
141:Carton overperformed by at least 1 point winning a match by MD.
149:Sorenson overperformed by at least 5 considering extra advancement point beating Jordan and a major decision over Chisko to get to 3rd place match and again beating Jordan for 3rd.
157:Kemerer scored 19 taking 3rd. If he makes Finals without majoring Palacio(which obviously wasn't going to happen) or Lavalle(Nolf barely did it at the very end of the match) he scores 18.5. At worst you consider that an even split.
165:Gunther winning 2 was an over performance of at least .5
174:Meyer won a match he shouldn't in Preisch and even if he does lose that he draws Amine in R12. So call that at least an even split.
184:Brooks at worst is a 1 point underperformance, but that is pushing it.
197:Wilcke was a 2 pt overperformance
285:N/A

So let's tally up: -5,+7,+1,+5,+.5,+.5,0,-1,+2,0= 10 pts

So that is like adding another 5th place finisher to the team. To me, without serious cherry picking, HOW IN THE HELL do you turn that into an Underperformance or Disappointment???????
 
Well I could have given a synopsis on the entire team, but the point was your big guns need to perform if you're going to win NCAA Titles, and ours didn't. That was the topic of discussion earlier in this thread. You can celebrate Cash Wilckes surprising run to Rd 12 all you want, but that isn't winning NCAA Titles if others aren't doing similar things (i.e. overperforming). Whether they wrestle back for 3rd or not is irrelevant, the big points aren't earned in the consolation bracket.

Here's another fact. We finished 49.5 points back from the National Team Champions.

#1 Gilman was undefeated and a runaway freight train favorite and loses in the Semi's to #4 seed Darian Cruz, a guy not even mentioned to win it THIS year by many, and currently ranked 4th as a Defending Champion.

Sorensen is 4th as a freshman, 2nd as a sophomore and only on paper is he a #5 seed. He gets tossed every which way but loose and then gets stuck, in a match where he's proven he can hang and possibly win if he shows up. He didn't.

#2 seed Kemerer gets stuck by the #7 seed in the quarterfinals.

Here's what Penn States big guns did.

#1 Retherford = Champion
#1 Nolf = Champion
#3 Joseph = Champion
#5 Hall = Champion
#2 Nickal = Champion

Now you see how this works when you "overperform? You win NCAA Team Titles. That was the topic. That's what my commentary was about, and I clearly stated these guys are great Hawkeyes, but they didn't "overperform" at last years NCAA's. The team that beat us by 49.5 points did.

That's the point. Get it yet?
Your opinions are your own. Facts are facts give it the frick up. We had four "big guns"

Gilman was a #1 seed and got 3rd
Clark was a #4 seed and got 1st
Sorenson was a #5 seed and got 3rd
Kemerer was a #2 seed and got 3rd

That is not underperforming. I don't give a crap how you want to twist it. You may not like the facts, but they are indeed still facts. We had a solid tournament with regards to our talent last year. Oh and throw in our guy that you want to discount like Caron, Gunther, and Wilcke we slightly overachieved. It's not the result any of us would prefer but for the first time in a while we actually exceeded our seeds by a bit. Here's to hope no that trend continues with an influx of better talent.
 
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